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If what you say is correct than R&R has effectively put a cloud over the stock for 6 months. I'm sure R&R understands the in's and out's so if in fact they know PPHM can't effectively do a R/S until July, and they say a R/S in the near future, they really put a lid on the stock. Who do they represent? Oh I forgot. They're IB's. They represent themselves. All IMO.
What I don't understand is with a price of $.39, the market is valuing cotara and bavi at about $35 mil (less cash and avid). With all these several hundred million dollar mab deals going down for stuff in both PI and PII, what is that saying about cotara and bavi? Are they duds? R&R projects cotara sales of $200 mil per year in five years and bavi at about $330 (for two treatments). With the avg price to sales ratio of about 9.5, that puts the value at about $5.0 bil. Why then $35 mil?
Things are not adding up.
Sale of AVID mentioned but not as alternative to R/S. I think they have to do a R/S to get institutional buying. The retail investor has run out of gas and patience.
Perhaps they know when a reverse split is coming and they're waiting for a lower price.
From what I recall and this was in the exec summary, they expect the compliance issue to be resolved by a reverse split sooner versus later. Can't remember exact phrase.
Good article on biotech. Either PPHM is the biggest scam on the planet or evil forces are conspiring to keep the lid on bavi and cotara.
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/dec2007/gb2007125_601848.htm?campaign_id=yhoo
It is my understanding the R&R report mentions three deals that relate to PPHM. They are Regeneron, Morphosys and Addex. I did a quick google on all three. All were basically partnerships with BP. The one most comparable imo was Regeneron which is valued at about $1.5 bil. I looked at the pipeline and PPHM has a broader platform imo but Regeneron was further along in trials.
Morphosys is in a different league imo.
I think it's the naive part. It's one thing to come from a lab background and another to work in a wall st environment. You need to work amongst the pirates for a while to understand that there are really no rules.
Case in point is the no reverse split agreement where the same folks that brought you to your knees are the ones you have to say uncle to so that you can get compliance. If you don't get a R/S and therefore compliance, the price goes lower which helps the folks that have you on your knees. I would say this was not carefully thought out.
I will add that I'm concerned about an AVID sale cause mgmt could make some similiar strategic blunders. "Oh I'm sorry your bavi batch was defective. We'll put you on the schedule next quarter." Or "I'm sorry, our guard dog ate your bavi. Bad dog."
BOT thanks. BTW, were the one that said the last PIPE was unlikely and a big partnership deal that was in the works would most likely eliminate the need for a PIPE? I'm sure you're efforts are sincere but you may have been used by mgmt last time.
The overall question regarding PPHM is what is best for the shareholder. Given mgmt has virtually no shares relative to float, what they will do and what they have done so far don't seem to line up with what is best for the shareholders, all imo. As I said ad nausem, a low share price benefits mgmt as they reach milestones and are awarded options based on a low share price.
Question. Is there a way to find out how many trades a particular market maker made in a specific issue over a given period of time in both sell and buy side? In other words, how many shares did CINN trade representing bid and ask on a given trade, and how many shares whether on bid or ask over a given period? Then what percentage to overall trade volume?
5) The stock is slowly being accumulated by BP or BB thru offshore players that have no regard for SEC regs and know the SEC is sleeping on the job (on purpose I might add). Mgmt is aware of what is going on and benefits in the meantime by getting milestone options awarded at cheap prices. Just look at all the games that have been played and CINN crushing any run over the last year or so. All IMO.
I agree. Things don't add up. If Bavi is the greatest story ever told, we need new story tellers cause the current ones can't communicate it to the right audience.
I doubt R&R would put it in their report unless mgmt blessed it or even told them it was in the works. I am not opposed to an RS as long as R&R had the demand from institutions waiting in the wings. I'm sure R&R is telling mgmt we can't place the shares with the compliance issue hanging out there.
I walked over to my friends office to review R&R report. She would not let me copy it and it's rather long. Overall good report but I think they are sandbaging it. Reverse split is mentioned and sooner than later. Mgmt must know about it if it's in there. Looks like cotara is where the near term driver will be. The report is long and I only had 20 minutes to review.
I reconfirmed that the R&R report mentions several times that the capital structure is a negative for the stock and that the price will not move until the structure is fixed. The report also mentions reverse split several times. I have not seen the report but I trust the person that reviewed it.
As for weakness in the stock, I think the retail holders have run out of gas and we can't get institutional players to play the "I'm going to buy a penny stock that doesn't meet Nasdaq compliance" game anytime soon. That leaves us in nowhere land. It's a perfect example of another mgmt financial blunder from a negotiating standpoint where we can't do a reverse split unless we get the approval of the folks that did the PIPE and shorted us into this mess. When PL states otherwise, it shows his inexperience.
Thx. With all due respect, on future posts please mention how it relates to PPHM. Otherwise you lose some credibility IMO and come off as somewhat of a pumper. Any biotech conference will have someone that worked somewhere with someone from PPHM. Ask Kevin Bacon.
Jazz,
How does this relate to PPHM? Are they presenting? The PPHM web page doesn't show it. It's obvious they should be there.
Thx
The good news is that we have one hour and 44 minutes to go. Any guesses on how many shares trade in the last half hour and will we close up?
Year end tax selling winding down. From Turbotax's tax saving hints.
As far as the IRS is concerned, a gain or loss should be reported on the return for the year the trade occurs, regardless of when settlement takes place. That means profits and losses taken as late as the closing bell on New Year's Eve go on the current year's return.
I have not seen R&R report but talked to friend that reviewed it. She said two things that report mentioned. PPHM is an attractive acquisition target and reverse split coming soon. I'm begging for report but can't get it. Has anyone seen the report and is she correct?
Did anybody preview the Rodman report? Curious as to what it says.
A desperation PR that offfered little value. The next PR I would like to see is that mgmt has finally admitted their incompetence and lack of credibility with the investment community. As such, mgmt has hired a qualified investment bank to sell the company.
Right now the market is valuing Bavi and Cotara at $25 mil. How much money went into developing those assets?
I just talked w/ my IB friend. Said mgmt was encouraged to buy shares recently. They have not. Why? They have no skin in the game as it is. Is $.38 to expensive?
I hope your right. All I know is $.40 per share is not right. That values Bavi and Cotara at $34 mil. This assumes cash is $.09 per share and AVID is worth $.15 per share.
And if I'm right, that's still better than current situation.
$4 bil way down the road and after $200 mil more in development costs. Unfortunately mgmt will have to sell to BP or BB before we reach the promised land. If PII's work, my guess is $800 mil to $1.2 bil.
We really need Gordon Gecko to step up. Greed is good.
The shares are getting so cheap I'm thinking in the # of shares I have to spend when I go and eat mexican food. A #3 with a taco, burrito and chulapa costs about 18 shares now. Mexican food is getting very expensive.
I'd like to compare PPHM to the Dolphins but the Dolphins finally won a game.
Good article on biotech acquisitions.
http://www.bionity.com/news/e/75596/
"The deal reflects the intense competition among drug makers for acquisitions to improve their pipelines," explained Burrill. "M&A has become a staple in biotech land. There is pressure on the management of pharmaceutical and biotech companies to perform and increase shareholder value and M&A has become the tool of choice to do this. Not only are we seeing biotechs acquiring biotechs but the pending expiry of patents on a number of blockbuster pharmaceuticals has stoked demand by big pharma for small innovative biotechs that can be easily acquired and integrated. Sanofi-Aventis, for example, says that it plans to aggressively pursue biotech buyouts. As more big developers fill their pipelines with biologics, competition for the most promising biotech drugs will be intense.
"The environment for M&A is bullish right now... so much so that biotech's are planting 'for sale' signs on their lots," Burrill explained. "Following Biogen Idec, which put itself up for sale last month, Vancouver-based QLT said it was seeking potential buyers for some or all of its assets and MGI Pharma announced that it was looking at its options including a buyer."
Hopefully mgmt is getting the sign ready. I've gone thru dozens of biotech acquisition articles over the last couple of days. I have more confidence that Bavi is worth more than $.40 a share. I also believe mgmt can get a whole lot more for the company right now. IMO, if mgmt doesn't show some value creation skills soon, they will be forced to put a "For Sale" sign in the front yard.
It comes down to price and motivation. My guess is mgmt will be more motivated with a sizeable block of shareholders wanting to sell or give them the boot.
At $.40, the market is valuing Bavi and Cotara at roughly $34 mil assuming the cash is worth $22 mil and Avid is worth $35 mil. Do you think they can sell Bavi and Cotara for more than $34 mil?
I think in the long run, it could be a blessing in disguise for the following reasons.
1. The DOD was not a primary market that PPHM should be going after cause the money making potential ie selling drugs on a day to day basis is not there nor will it ever will be. I wonder what resources would have been required to push the program forward? PPHM needs all available resources getting the pipeline to the next step which is partner or sale of the company. The dod was a distraction with minimal financial reward.
2. The validation would have been important but the real validation for what we want is P II data. It would have taken a year or much more to get DOD validation and subsequent value. We can't wait that long.
As for the poison pill at $11 per share, the pill was enacted when the number of shares was much less and the current market cap at the time was higher. I'd like to see mgmt get an estimate of value for the company for its current state and what the value possibilities would be if the data comes in as expected. They probably have already done that.
As for mgmt having no skin in the game, that is part of the problem and they benefit from a low stock price as milestone options are awarded. Right now I would prefer a please take me pill versus a poison pill.
It also makes Bavi more valuable in terms of putting it into a competitors hands. IMO, it is evident that the company needs to be sold sooner than later cause resources are needed to move it forward. Mgmt has neither the skill required, the ability to raise cash, or the connections. It is becoming obvious.
The current share price has no bearing on the value of the pipeline, thus the constant complaints of the shareholders. The value of Bavi both antiviral and cancer plus cotara are much greater than current price. See my other posts for quick value anlysis. Several preclinical deals have gone down for much more than PPHM's pipeline. Mgmt has told me they can sell the parts for much more than current price. That's why you'll see more active shareholders in 2008 if the price does not reflect the value.
This is part of a WSJ article that I referenced and Jazz posted.
"So big pharmaceutical companies have spent nearly $76 billion since 2005 to buy biotech companies, according to Health Care M&A Information Service, a unit of Irving Levin Associates Inc., a Norwalk, Conn., research company. While in 2005 there were 33 deals amounting to $16.5 billion, in the first nine months of this year there were 49 deals totaling $28.7 billion, including AstraZeneca PLC's $15.6 billion acquisition of MedImmune, which followed a bidding war against Eli Lilly, among others."
The average deal size in 2005 was $500 mil and the avg size (taking out the MedImmune deal due to size) was $272 mil.
I will try to do some research as to what the pipelines looked like for some of these deals. My hunch is PPHM has every bit as good of pipeleine for the avg deal.
As for the sky falling, I'm hoping to pick up some panic sale shares. The market tends to overreact. The technology has not changed because the bafoons in DC decided to cut a budget.
Also, my expectations of getting $6 to $8 a share have evaporated. Right now I know $1 to $2 is very obtainable, possibly more if mgmt gets their act together. This est is based on BP's hunger for pipelines and avg deal size. Mgmt needs to monetize an asset so they have enough leverage to negotiate a decent deal.
If they don't get it together, I have a pretty good source that thinks changes are on the way if they fail to make something happen soon. Another PIPE is not an option.
I disagree with too late for change. It will require a change agent with some muscle as in cash. I think you can find one if you can deliver 20 mil shares that have the same goal, ie value creation thru sale or at min change in mgmt (at least with the BOD).
I don't think selling Avid is the answer cause we need to make product. If they sell it and Avid gets a big contract, PPHM could be stymied by not having product to test. I'd prefer selling some of the early preclinical stuff or even selling or partnering cotara earlier than planned.
You could do something creative with Avid by partnering it with a financial partner and still control the product delivery. You could also have a buyback provision when you hit the big score.
The $9 mil per year was gross rev so the net to the bottom line would be much less. Also, IMO it would have diverted people resources towards chasing the gov biz, which can be a waste of time. At the end of the day (3 to 4 years out) the gov might buy something or give you a contract to make something? If you're an Amgen, you got the spare peeps and cash to work it. With PPHM, you can put those resources towards the bigger bang of commercial drug development (ie getting ready to partner or sell). The next six months is crunch time for mgmt in terms of monetizing some assets. I say they need $20 mil to keep the dogs off.
If they fail, I really believe that mgmt will be forced to sell the company before they do another pipe like the last one. I'll reluctantly take $2 per share then go thru a death spiral pipe and delist. I think mgmt knows this cause they've been told as much.