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Thanks. Great article.
http://www.law.yale.edu/documents/pdf/cbl/AM3PM5Black.pdf
Yes I believe in a big conspiracy to keep the price locked in a narrow range while accumulation continues. I also think mgmt is aware of the game and it benefits them as well as patient long shareholders.
Notice the slap down at the close? The lid is still on it.
CINN will slap it down at the close. Watch.
CINN is an electronic exchange. It is used by institutions, hedge funds and others. One of the reasons folks use it is to protect anonymity. So CINN in itself is not the culprit, they're just the tool.
The poison pill was enacted in March 2006 when there were 174 mil shares outstanding and the stock was trading around $1.20 per share. Today there are 226 mil shares outstanding and the stock trades at $.38. The adjusted PP price should be about $8.40 taking into consideration the additional shares. You could argue the company is more valuable cause the trials have advanced. Have we accomplished anything since the poison pill? Look at the 3 year chart. What am I missing? Why is mgmt not fighting for the share price? Oh, I forgot. They get cheap options.
It's also interesting to note R&R recommendation was at $.38. Is it just a coincidence that the stock has stayed in that narrow range and R&R is now a MM in PPHM?
My opinion is they're sandbagging it until their clients get a position. I think the other force behind CINN has been driving the bus. R&R just has to catch the draft. I think it would be interesting to see all the shares outstanding and a true picture of the short position. My guess would be the float is bigger than real life.
If you assume Avid is worth $35 mil or $.15 per share and cash is about $19 mil or $.08 per share, then the market is valuing Cotara, bavi AC and bavi AV plus all the other preclinical assets at about $31 million. How much money has been spent on developing these assets? Quite a bit more than $30 mil.
Either we've got the biggest group of fools on the scientific board and bavi and cotara results to date have been basically failures or something else is happening.
I believe the retail investor has been beaten into submission and has run out of gas, the institutional player can't play cause the nasdaq issue, and our IB friend as well as others have kept and will keep the lid on price until they have their fill. All with mgmt's blessing given they get awarded cheap shares while the game is played. All imo.
Right now I'm more worried about the company expiring before any patent expiring.
Two great pr's in a row. Not worried about the pps in this current storm. We've got the ball moving forward.
Unfortunately, I think the only thing that really will make an impact would be funding related. How will you pay for all these trials? That's what the market wants to know.
It wanted to move but CINN slammed it again. When will this stop?
Why the fuss? Realist has been on ignore for months now. Don't waste you time or energy. Put it on ignore.
I'm only hoping that mgmt has a plan to release several pr's within a short time that are significant. Why? In order to move the stock past $1.00. I think there are entities out there that benefit from a delisting so mgmt needs a steady barrage to fight them. I could be wrong. All imo.
Again, the SEC is owned by the hedge funds and the DOJ is DOA.
The example given was to demonstrate that thru friendly entities and shorting, one can accumulate a large block of shares. There are other factors to consider as well. Also, let me repeat myself. The more shares an acquirer gets on the cheap, the higher price the acquirer can pay at the close.
Another example, all hypothetical of course. Let's say you think a certain technology is worth $2 bill and there are 200 mil shares outstanding which would make the average price of $10 per share (this is not what the market value is , it's where you think ultimate value is). If you acquire 50 million shares at an average cost of $2 per share, what is your average cost if you had to pay $10 for the remaining shares?
It's $8 per share and you saved yourself $400 mil. I'm sure there are a million permutations as well. You could also buy on the open market but that could drive up the price too quickly so having a friendly short help you can save you a ton of money.
Duh? EOM
You missed the point. You picked up a substantial number of shares at a big discount. Does the poison pill require you to undo your trades? No. Also, mgmt might benefit (as well as long suffering shareholders) with someone picking up a ton of cheap shares if they pay the freight on the last remaing shares (ie buyout price). The losers are the ones that gave up and sold while the carnage took place.
I don't think so. I think the games started when bavi started showing some signs of it working. The clues are all the games during the russell rebalance. I'd say the games started within the last year. Also, I think with the SEC being basically inert and the FBI focused on other things, I'd say it's anything goes out there. As for the past, it's possible but I don't think the technology compares to bavi. The hedge funds basically control the SEC and congress right now.
Real simple. All hypothetical example. Let's say you know a company (technology) is worth $10 per share making the market cap $2 bil. You team up with offshore hedgies and you short and accumulate for a period of time all the while breaking the will of the retail holder. The company progresses in trials and the stock just seems to go down. After accumulating for some time the stock finally gains ground. The acquirer settles with the shorts that overall have lost money, say the short average was a $1 per share and they accumulated 50 million shares on your behalf and they settle out at $2.00 per share. You pay your pals $50 million for doing your dirty work. Sounds like a bad deal right? Wrong, you picked up 50 million shares that should have been worth much more if the games hadn't been played. For example, if you thought the technology was worth $10 per share to begin with, you saved yourself $8 per share times 50 million shares or $400 million.
Who is going to stop this, if in fact it's happening? The SEC?
I don't think so.
I've been saying this has probably been going on with PPHM for some time now. I also suspect BP or BB is in on the game. I also think shorting has been part of the game. If bavi is what it appears to be, it's worth several billion when comparing to Avastin and erbitux. Why not keep the lid on it and accumulate for pennies on the dollar.
With the loopholes and the SEC basically doing nothing, it's the wild west out there. Also, given the supreme courts ruling this week, all the players get a free pass.
Jazz,
Thanks for your posts and it's clear that PS could be the holy grail. What role does PPHM and bavi have in the holy grail? Are there other players that have the cup? Do the other players have to come to papa (pphm) or is the field open to other players?
TIA
Latest Option Grant.
Just curious with the 24 month vesting. If a reasonable offer to purchase the company surfaced within the next 6 months, would mgmt be looking out for shareholders in evaluating such an offer or would they diss it cause their options were not vested yet?
If in fact those were options posted, what was the achievement? Was it multi-year stock price? I think some games have been played with mgmt fully aware in order to get the price down for the options and accumulation for R&R clients. Sorry I'm a skeptic. Hopefully it works out well for everybody in the long run.
Interesting story on Avastin. As for mab comparisons, sounds like bavi.
http://www.jci.org/cgi/reprint/113/7/934.pdf
I would be trying to do a deal sooner with a buyback provision whereas investor/purchaser made a decent profit in 1 years time yet pphm controls its own destiny. Same with a partnership deal w/ Cotara. Sweeten it up on the front end but do it early and get additional milestone payments if Ph II hits its target. That is of course if you want to avoid delisting. But what if you as part of mgmt benefits from delisting? Your future employer gets to buy cheap cheap shares and your milestone options get real cheap. Again that's a what if. I don't think it will happen cause there is enough folks that have had enough are are starting to mobilize. I think you would see a forced sale of the company before delisting. Mgmt then could see their options turn worthless. I'm also hoping mgmt is actually fighting for the current shareholder. All imo.
Mgmt has repeatedly been naive when it comes to dealing with financing. They have put themselves in positions they need not be in, russell rebalance two years ago, reverse split limits w/ recent pipe, etc. I can just see them waiting for the last minute to do an Avid deal before delisting. All of a sudden the deal falls thru - surprise, surprise, suprise. The same folks they are doing the deal with want to buy the company on the cheap. Seen it happen a million times. That's the problem with a ceo that comes from a lab background and is used to dealing with mice. You need experience in dealing with rats to deal with Wall St and offshore vermin. PL is not up to task either. All imo.
Thanks for the reply. Why is the stock at $.37 then? I've presented the bavi case to several intelligent investors. Most of them have taken a position in the company (regretfully I might add). What is the market seeing that we're not? This makes no sense. My inclination is the tech is great but mgmt doesn't have the skill set to advance the program. I'm a salesmen and that's the skill set needed of a CEO. I don't think we have that with current mgmt or BOD. With such a compelling story, senior mgmt should be making the rounds and getting in front of some wealthy investors. Getting into the doors of these folks should be easy with all the connections. It would only take a few investors to stabilize the stock. Instead they have relied on directors with conflicts and furthermore, there is no incentive by mgmt to keep the price up when options could be granted at a lower price. I would have to argue that mgmt nor their "IB" have their interests aligned with current shareholders which is where it should be and not "future shareholders" such as institutions and themselves by way of future option grants.
A change is needed.
For clarification, the question is related to initial stage efficacy and potential side effects as it relates to Phase II. IMO, there's a ways to go before you get to market and lots of dough required so just want to look similiar stage comparisons.
Jazz,
How does bavi compare to erbitux and avastin at their respective stages of development? Avastin had about $2.2 bil in sales in 2007 (using 3 qtrs actual sales and using 3rd qtr sales for 4th qtr) while erbitux had sales of over $1 bil in 2005. At a 6.4 price to sales ratio, that values Avastin over $14 bil. Imclone is valued at $3.4 bil.
Glancing over some of the articles on google, it appeared that both drugs had some side affects and were effective but it didn't appear to me they were blockbusters ie in terms of increased survival times etc.
Can you provide a layman's comparison? Seems to me bavi has the goods?
TIA
ya still have salaries and rent to pay. not good.
Do you think most of the sells are shorts trying to cap the price?
You've got to go thru $1 before you get to $12. What I'm saying is $.36 is unacceptable and mgmt get your hiney's in gear and don't rely on R&R to make things happen.
I'm having a problem understanding what is going on. I just watched the bavi video again; I just looked at the SRB; I looked at the press releases over the last year; I did some research on sales of companies with Mab's under development and I just looked at the stock price. The market is telling us that the Cotara and Bavi drugs and all other preclinical stuff and patents are worth about $30 mil after deducting the cash and value for Avid. Can the company sell this pipeline for more than this right now? I'd say yes. Is R&R working to benefit pphm shareholder? I'd say no (most likely to benefit themselves by placing dark clouds) and working for their clients.
Either Bavi and Cotara potential are what mgmt and R&R say they are and we should be trading much higher or someone is sandbagging for their benefit which I think is mgmt and R&R. The question I have is why is mgmt letting R&R drum up demand when it's obvious things are not happening. If the story is so compelling (which I think it is), why isn't mgmt getting in front of folks to tell the story. It would only take one, perhaps two or more wealthy folks to see the value and invest. And for many in that crowd, it would be chump change. With all the contacts thru the UT system, Komen Foundation, Sammons, Duke, this would appear to be an easy task. It's obviously not happening. IMO mgmt has been led down the offshore PIPE road by a board member that possibly benefits from the financings. It may have been the best alternative years ago when bavi was just getting started. I don't believe that's the case now.
This is why I think change needs to happen and soon. My patience is running out.
I am as frustrated as everyone else with mgmt and the stock price. I do believe that a change is needed at the helm. Mgmt outlined the milestones in the R&R report. If they fail this quarter, I do believe a change will take place. Too many unhappy campers and mgmt has virtually no ownership.
Easy. Offshore funds. One can also get several players to buy 4.9% w/o reporting with a prearranged agmt to purchase at a given time. Also, since when did the SEC start enforcing laws recently?
From RB post. RR report.
http://stockfacts.info/pphm_report.htm
IMO there are two issues with the reverse split. First and foremost is nasdaq compliance. A R/S gets you that. Second, the share price needs to be higher than a buck to get institutions on board. The thing that will move this is institutional ownership, not morons like us buying a $.39 stock. Look at the big boys in biotech, 85% institutional ownership or better. Roughly 200 million shares need to get redirected into deeper pockets.
BOT,
Sorry but you seem naive in financing agmts. That's ok. Just don't come across as an expert. You're damaging your credibility.
I read the agreement and I don't think the restriction applies to securities sold on the open mkt. I believe the assigns issue would apply if for example Double U LLP sold their firm to XYZ Corp. XYZ corp would then have the rights pursuant to the contract as an assignee. Also, the R/S is not forbidden, you just need permission.
In glancing at the agmt, one thing stuck out which is the restriction on shorting the stock. The purchasers put an out in whereby the limitation was restricted to the portfolio mgr while other entities within the purchaser are not restricted. Talk about a fox in the henhouse. Ya think this thing was shorted?