Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
it doesn't matter what you think be_way
It doesn't matter what I consider about my position either
The one and only that decides your fate (right side or wrong side) is the market.
The ultimate hang jury
then there's a 3rd position - the safe position (either a blue strong stock or cash)
markets - The Calm Before The Storm
Last year went out with a whimper and 2005 came in with a bang. Unfortunately for the bulls, the bang was to the downside. Those who believe that the first five days of January have some mystical bearing upon the rest of the years have good reason to take 2005 off and do some sailing. Or seek solace in the tendency of years ending in "5" to have been quite profitable historically.
For those of us who believe that the first five days of January are just the first five days of January and that a number on a calendar has little bearing upon stock market direction, our work has just begun. What will 2005 bring?
The general mainstream consensus is much the same as every year: everything will do a little bit better and nothing bad will happen. The economy will continue to grow a bit, stocks will go a bit higher, the dollar will rally a bit. Nice, neat, safe and tidy, the same annual forecast touted year after year. Everything good about last year will get a little better this year and so too will everything that was bad about 2004.
In some respects I agree. But whereas most see 2005 as
"a little better as always", I see it as "the calm before the storm."
Four years after the stock market bubble burst, most everyone is doing just fine and crisis was clearly averted. Or so goes the general consensus. But that "something didn't happen" isn't always a solid indication that it never will. In reality the efforts to avert crisis and grave economic slowdown served only to generate still larger imbalances. Jim Puplava sums it up beautifully:
"These imbalances get larger each year with every Fed interest rate cycle. The markets and the economy are no longer allowed to cleanse themselves of excesses and heal themselves. Instead intervention is constantly pursued with the goal of altering economic outcomes.
Recessions and bear markets are no longer tolerated. At the first sign of trouble, easy money is applied to remedy any downturn either in the markets or the economy. The result is that debt imbalances get larger, asset markets get inflated, and the real economy weakens and is hollowed out. The 1991 and 2001 recessions were followed by the weakest job growth on record. The financial economy keeps growing, while the real economy weakens."
"The financial economy keeps growing while the real economy weakens." Truer economic words have yet to be spoken. This is the essence of where we stand today.
In the real economy, job growth has been minimal and income growth has been trivial. In the real economy manufacturing jobs are moving to China. Meanwhile financial companies thrive by collecting a fee for throwing the U.S. consumer more deeply into debt, profiting by increasing the imbalance. Mortgages are bought and sold, debt is traded and passed down the line, the "carry trade" keeps racking up profits and the numbers continue being shuffled to demonstrate that everything is A-OK.
But where are the benefits to the real economy?
At the heart of it, imbalance is the foundation upon which the game is built. The stressors that have been with us since the implosion of the stock market bubble haven't gone away. They've only been ignored. Savings are virtually non-existent. The dollar has traded at historical lows. The costs of raw goods have surged, impacting bottom lines across the board. Billions are being spent in Iraq while the budget and trade deficits continue to swell.
None of the factors seem to have hurt us much. In a growing economy, negatives can often be ignored. But what happens when the inevitable downturn occurs?
Since WW2, cycles of Fed tightening amounting to at least 2% have resulted in recessions ¾ of the time. Combine that with the fact that oil shocks have resulted in recessions 100% of the time and we have a recipe for an inevitable slowdown, perhaps beginning in 2006.
With what shall we battle this downturn, when the imbalanced chickens released in the last one come home to roost? Will the American consumer dip into his 0.2% savings, his $80 a year to ride out the storm? Will oil prices dip back down to $20 and unleash wheelbarrows full of spending money? Forget about deficit spending with the budget deficit already at a record. What's going to save us this time?
In 2005 the markets and the economy will step back to digest the imbalances engendered by the easy money policies of the early 21st century. The stock market will ask itself how long it can continue to climb driven primarily by speculation on low interest rates, keeping a lid on the gains. Jaws will drop as the realization the cheap oil is a thing of the past hits home, that sub-$35 oil has been relegated to the history books and that the bull market in crude oil won't be going away anytime soon. The dollar will enjoy a break from its precipitous plunge, but only as a consolidation ahead of the next leg lower beginning some time later in the year.
2005 will go down as the year when everything that didn't seem to matter finally begins to matter and the markets prepare themselves for a much larger slowdown beginning in 2006. The end of the financial world as we know it? Probably not. But a bigger challenge than the Fed's simple tricks can wish away. It'll be a boring year (barring any major geopolitical surprises), a time for us to rest up ahead for a fascinating 2006.
Mark M. Rostenko
Editor
The Sovereign Strategist
folks you gotta understand - there's no our side
or their side. That's silly thinking.
But yeah, there are 2 sides - the right side, and then the wrong side. You better be on the right side. Where the next guy is bears no significance whatsoever.
If I'm on the right side and you are on the wrong side it doesn't mean we're against each other. That's an impossibility.
Being on the wrong side makes (stupid/uneducated) people act with hate toward the guy that is on the right side.
The market is a house of horrors where the ghosts of human sentiments hunt, and of course the jealousy and envy ..
since I posted about QLT's buy just to close this cycle for whoever followed in, I'll mention I sold it today
So entry 19.3- exit 21.-- 1,700 shares
end of story
looking forward to reentry an/or other stocks
Thanx QLT
it would be funny but the banks #### for real
This is an actual letter that was sent to a bank by a 96
year-old woman. The bank manager thought it amusing enough to have it published in the New York Times. The sick part is that the Bank Manger thought it was funny.
To whom it may concern,
I am writing to thank you for bouncing my check with which I endeavored to pay my plumber last month. By my calculations, three nanoseconds must have elapsed between his depositing the check and the arrival in my account of the funds needed to honor it. I refer, of course, to the automatic monthly transfer of funds from my modest savings account, an arrangement which, I admit, has been in place for only thirty-one years. You are to be commended for seizing that brief window of opportunity, and also for debiting my account $30 by way of penalty for the inconvenience caused to your bank.
My thankfulness springs from the manner in which this incident has caused me to rethink my errant financial ways. I noticed that whereas I personally attend to your telephone calls and letters, when I try to contact you, I am confronted by the impersonal, overcharging, pre-recorded, faceless entity which your bank has recently become. From now on, I, like you, choose only to deal with a flesh-and-blood person. My mortgage and loan repayments will therefore and hereafter no longer be automatic, but will arrive at your bank, by check, addressed personally and confidentially to an employee at your bank whom you must nominate. Be aware that it is an offense under the Postal Act for any other person to open such an envelope.
Please find attached an Application Contact Status form which I require your chosen employee to complete. I am sorry it runs to eight pages, but in order that I know as much about him or her as your bank knows about me, there is no alternative. Please note that all copies of his or her medical history must be countersigned by a Notary Public, and the mandatory details of his/her financial situation (income, debts, assets and liabilities) must be accompanied by documented proof. In due course, I will issue your employee with a PIN number which he/she must quote in dealings with me. I regret that it cannot be shorter than 28 digits but, again, I have modeled it on the number of button presses required of me to access my account balance on your phone bank service. As they say, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
Please allow me to level the playing field even further. When you call me, you will now have a menu of options on my new voice mail system to choose from.
Please press the buttons as follows:
1. To make an appointment to see me.
2. To query a missing payment.
3. To transfer the call to my living room in case I am there.
4. To transfer the call to my bedroom in case I am sleeping.
5. To transfer the call to my toilet in case I am attending to nature.
6. To transfer the call to my mobile phone if I am not at home.
7. To leave a message on my computer, a password to access my computer is required. Password will be communicated to you at a later date to the Authorized Contact.
8. To return to the main menu and to listen to options 1 through 7.
9. To make a general complaint or inquiry. The contact will then be put on hold, pending the attention of my automated answering service. While this may, on occasion, involve a lengthy wait, uplifting music will play for the duration of the call.
Regrettably, but again following your example, I must also levy an establishment fee of $50 to cover the setting up of this new arrangement. Please credit my account after each occasion.
May I wish you a happy, if ever so slightly less prosperous, New Year.
Your Humble Client,
(Remember: This was written by a 96 year old woman)
New Wave Of Competition
01/03/2005
By Mark Boslet
PALO ALTO, Calif. --Personal-computer and consumer-electronics companies jockeying to be at the center of a new generation of home-entertainment products will find fierce competition from an unlikely source at this year's Consumer Electronics Show, beginning Thursday.
For the first time, telecommunications and cable companies will be trying to place themselves inside what the industry likes to call the digital living room.
"This is the first year we see the big telecom companies and cable companies putting their cards on the table," says Tim Bajarin, president of Creative Strategies, a market research firm. All four industries "are in an aggressive battle to control the digital home."
The prize is a U.S. consumer-electronics business of more than $108 billion that is undergoing rapid change as movies, television, music and photos increasingly become digital - or based on the "1s" and "0s" of computer language. The aggressive competition will draw about 120,000 venders, buyers and press to Las Vegas from Thursday to Sunday for what has become the year's biggest stage for unveiling consumer electronics.
While attendance is expected to be down slightly from 130,000 last year, the number of products on display is increasing. As many as 2,400 companies will fill 1.5 million square feet of exhibit space, up from 1.2 million square feet last year. A mind-numbing array of gear is expected: 80-inch flat-panel TVs, DVD players that wirelessly streaming high-definition movies to television sets, a wristwatch with the power of a Palm-like personal digital assistant, wearable camcorders and wireless handheld devices playing video. Analysts expect to learn details about Sony Corp.'s (SNE) U.S. launch of its PlayStation Portable game console with video-playing capability.
"Everything will be networked," often wirelessly, says Rob Enderle, principal analyst at the Enderle Group, adding, "You are going to see some amazing things with regard to high-definition video," with greater picture resolution.
Lower prices also should be evident. High-definition 42-inch flat panels will break the $3,000 barrier and portable music player prices could fall by a third by next Christmas.
The rapidly changing market sparked an unanticipated wave of buying last year. According to the Consumer Electronics Association, an estimated seven million portable music, or MP3, players were sold in the U.S. in 2004, exceeding an August forecast. Shipments of digital cameras rose between 25% and 33% to about 17.6 million units and flat-panel TVs using liquid crystal displays, or LCDs, should see shipments reach 2.1 million units, well above the 1.3 million expected.
Industry-wide, sales for the year had been anticipated to be $108 billion, but may come in well above that mark, says Sean Wargo, CEA director of industry analysis. The 7% increase projected for 2005 also may turn out to be low. Wargo said the association will release updated figures during the show.
But the central drama at this year's show will be the faceoff among computer, consumer-electronics and communications companies. This will be evident in the keynote addresses scheduled for the event. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Chairman Bill Gates and Intel Corp. (INTC) Chief Executive Craig Barrett will discuss their companies' strategies. But so will Ed Whitcare, chairman and chief executive of SBC Communications Inc. (SBC), and Judy McGrath, chairman and chief executive of Viacom Inc.'s (VIA) MTV Networks.
The telecommunications and cable companies are looking to offer everything from phone and television service to home networking, says Eric Lefebvre, an executive vice president at privately held Axentra Corp. "I see them as well-positioned. This whole concept of the digital home is a massive market."
Axentra will introduce a home server at the show with the ability to send video to mobile devices such as handheld computers.
CES may show digital entertainment as a market finally coming of age. Michael Demeyer, U.S. vice president of sales and marketing for Cyberlink, says technologies for sharing content in the living room began coming to the market in the past year.
There should be a much broader range of products connecting the TV and personal computer this year, Demeyer says. Some will appear to be set-top boxes, but "smart" ones. Others will look like ordinary consumer electronics devices such as DVD players, but have the ability to move music from the PC to a living-room stereo.
Cyberlink has run focus groups in the U.S. and Japan, and consumers appear ready to bite at the digital hook. "The desire to share content in the home is very high," Demeyer says. Music is first on people's lists. Photographs also rate high.
But Demeyer is hesitant to say a competitive war is breaking out in the marketplace. "I think it's too early to say it's a battle yet," he says. "I think everybody is trying to get the market started."
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), which began selling its Linksys Extender at the end of October, also offers evidence of a growing market. The Extender hooks up a PC running Microsoft's Media Center Edition 2005 video playing software to a TV.
Sales of the product are exceeding expectations, says Malachy Moynihan, vice president of engineering and product marketing at Linksys. "There really is a pent-up demand in the market."
Moynihan also says he expects digital-rights-management software that protects movies and broadcasting from copying to become foolproof enough this year that major studios agree to let their content be moved among devices in the home. At present, Internet movie download sites such as MovieLink LLC limit their movies to only the PC that downloads them.
Along with living room servers that store and distribute video and music, handheld video players will be plentiful at CES. Yet, there is little belief this market is ready to take off. The screen on the players - four inches in size - is too small to make them popular, many say.
However, Michael Maia, vice president of sales and marketing at PortalPlayer Inc. (PLAY) says portable MP3 players will get a wealth of new features in 2005 that could help adoption. Last year, many of the first generation players were difficult to use and their screens were black and white. The new wave of products will have color screens and add-ons, such as the ability to handle photographs.
Prices also should decline through the year. By next Christmas, models that sell for $249 today will go for about $199, Maia said.
At the show, Cisco will display a prototype of a Voice over Internet Protocol phone for the consumer market that it hopes to ship this year. The goal is to get the price to $99 or below, a point at which consumers will replace their cordless phones. The company should be able to get within $50 of that price, Moynihan says.
Many executives say the crowds make the show a must-attend event. "It's a great place to see a lot of customers all at one time," says Maia. "There is some deal making. (But) it's mostly the relationship stuff."
By Mark Boslet, 01-03-05 0900ET
Sage, have a Happy and Prosperous New Year
I think you said something about watching QLT ?
I see it a buy. I bought some. It looks like it tries to rally for a change..
I don't have a target in mind (I wish I had). Hoping for the sky..
Cheers
Happy New Year to the good guys
ben, too bad you had to stop
you really made perfect sense and I happen to like a cool head approach
please do it more often
re: rigged market
it is an it is not rigged, but mostly rigged. The explanation is quite simple. We have big money and then the masses.
We tend to think that the masses since they are masses of investors should create an impossibility for the market to be rigged. Think why the big money is called so (BIG). They can OVERCOME and OVERRIDE the power of the masses. 'They' will move the market as it suits them. Too much to go in detail in posts but you get the point.
There are also markets where a surge in attention (news) may TEMPORARILY overcome the manipulators creating crazy moves. The manipulators are not going to loose because they have endurance far greater than us, and preferential (unfair) rules and tools too.
The game favors the house. That's why the saying goes "don't go against the market"..
cheers
hi sage, CSCO did not visit 18 in the last 4 weeks.
The chart has a fake touch. I know because I watch. It only visit 18.4 or so that day. It was kept weak for a long time now.
Why is CLS now CLS/SV? If I want to check historical prices on yahoo it shows only under CLS.
re: CLS/SV - is range bound ... for almost 26 months now. Since it is at the half, a prudent move would be to take 1/2 off the table (assuming you got in at the bottom of range) and let the other half run, to ensure a profit even if drops back. The last formation suggests upward bias, more so if it doesn't drop more than 40 cents Friday. Resistances at 19.2 and 20. Watch it there.
Entering/adding now is risky.
re: ATY - looks decent but toppy. Stochastics show distribution. The price action from July is bearish. If I'd have it I'd definitely sell half around here (24) if not all.
No need to wait around for one more penny. That's just me.
re: SBY - NO - it has evident bearish divergence in weekly, but not in daily (yet). It may correct to around 34.4, but the averages suggest that will not crash, and likely rebound, probably forming a negative divergence in daily. The ADX seems to set up for a bear ride.
Since no trendline was yet violated there's no confirmation for worries. Trendline now at 34 and rising healthy and hard at 0.40 /week. Better wait for a bounce off it for an entry, don't you think?
Bottom hunt: I really watch BLD and almost bought Thursday. It failed to generate a signal just yet.
I may buy some QLT Friday, depending on the close.
BGO to hit trendline at 3.8, but I think 3.7 is just as good. But jeez, it dropped like a rock in this correction (?), or shall I say.. NT style.
I won't touch NT even if it goes to 500 or 0.10. I just don't care. I don't look for extra risk.
I'm pleased it went to 3.75 as I thought it would. Now let's see ..
There is NO "success story" reason to go high. Just pitty "contracts" so far..
Much like BBD - all horrific , including the downgrades , bad commentaries all around, and lowered to junk status, but hey, the stock rallies !?!?!?! what the hell ?
good luck
ben, I see you back down from 2 guesses contest
You shouldn't
This is not a regular situation, and I believe 2 contests are the right thing - and should make people think seriously.
cheers
ben, don't know why you asked as I have given this "no statement released" guess which is the 1st one. The 3.3x US.
There is a reasoning - reason is that the stock have 2 bottoms: one at 2.95 - 3.00, and one higher at 3.3x where a lot of action occurred and seems more likely.
However, my feelings tell me that if the guy that takes care of this stock wants to be able to use shock therapy, the stock should rise to no more than 3.7x or so. This is my maximum in a pre-announcement time.
(so practically I would've preferred to give a range 3.3x to 3.7x)
If the stock does better than 3.7x then the likelihood that the downside is dead rises dramatically as the shock is harder to produce, which means that if the stock rises more than 3.7x then it should go higher, although not to the sky.
(I'm very curious how good this guess can be)
However, even above 3.7x is no guarantee that the shock won't be applied. If shock is applied from above 3.7x it will be bigger. If this is happening and I'd be long or ready to buy at the time, based on past action, I'd wait some 1-3 days as it may bottom. If it won't bottom , but slide or consolidate instead, then a slide and/or lower step is likely ahead past that point, with a ceiling at 3.xx (likely 3.00).
If it is bottoming, it should be a solid bottom (assuming no more bad PR thereafter !!).
-------
there is one more scenario, and is based on the assumption that the big money is not on the short side and so that the shorts would be screwed this time. In such scenario will be a shock but a positive shock, which means a violent rise to 6 or so, or a very rapid 100% rise from whatever price happens to be at the announcement time (or last price congestion).
This type of action has the potential to wipe out many short positions. Judging by P/C situation, a lot of hedging (or positioning?) is going on recently in this regard.
This stock has been a gambler's dream. As oppose to the online gambling which doesn't pay off if you win, this one does ;)
Gamblers must love it, which explains the volume. If it drops bellow 3 the gambling will intensify even more.
cheers
ben, this contest seems off somewhat
It should be 2 parallel contests this time around.
One guess if the statement is out (regardless of content), and the other one for if the statement is not. Sort of plan A and plan B.
This IS a special circumstance after all.
- if the statement is not out - low 3.s (around here- 3.3)
- if it is delayed yet again - 2.6 - 2.8
- if it is released - your guess is as good as mine. It doesn't matter the content. prospects DO - it will be some short covering, and if the prospects suck it will resume a sustained slide into oblivion, or until something good can be shown. If prospects are acceptable it will stabilize.
I'd say max 4 by end of Jan.
My guess is that even if NT deserves a higher price , which I don't know, 'they' will take it down at least one more time badly. This for many reasons, not the very least to allow some big guns to load the boat off the desperate longs.
Since my outlook is fractious an it's hard to fit it into the contest (present form) and may even lower your #s you may leave it ;)
I don't see why people won't want to give 2 guesses, one for statement done and one without, which is easy I'd say and also makes a lot of sense.
The thing that matters the most is where the big money is positioned. Usually it is the smaller side of the pie. That will dictate the way.
I wish you to get your money back, but this stock will not run up until the time comes for the bull from the cooked books to become reality - IMO makes perfect sense. We're not there.
You seem to be the coolest mind around (maybe the age helps?). Considering you have positions under water, it is making it even more so important.
Monday the stock should have a little ramp toward the "Owen lunch".
cheers
sage, hi there, good to hear from you
re: YRI.TO - breakout aborted for now, but bias still up. C&H I will consider when (IF) breaking the April high of 4.6 on a 2nd try. Resistance at 3.8 where a sell signal was triggered Friday. It is now rising negatively with no buy signal and heading for forming negative divergences.. Protect your profits. (I'd sell at least half at 3.8 or trail a stop or both) I'm using a combination of candles , EMA, SMA, cycle, and price volatility to determine the forward outlook. I rely heavily on candles and EMA for faster signals and judgment. It tends to blow the whistle earlier. You notice that in YRI example PSAR did not give any sell signal yet, while I tell you that it happened. Recently I started to engage heavily the Stochastics with some help from the MACD. Great indicator the Stochastic if used properly(!). It won't give you a target but would point to the right side and/or pending reversals.
I would've put a stop at 3.73 (or so) on Thursday and reenter if it closed above it by EOD (it didn't). Then I would've look to enter on EMA40 at around 3.45 and keep a very tight stop with a major liquidation at 3.8 as I mentioned.
I apologise if I sound like a wise ass, because in reality things go less smooth..
I think this stock needs 'patience' - it may consolidate before going higher. The last low at 3.4 to be watched.
re: UTS - yes, nice C&H. It has a hard sell signal though today !!! (PSAR is blinded..) I would've sold out completely today at EOD. It should retrace to somewhere between 0.95 1.00. That must hold or else..
A good gambling point.
re: MSD - high mom, the recent drop while consistent did NOT trigger my sell signals (nor yours I assume). However, I'd watch it because it may top with a negative divergence. OK to hold for now.
re: SPC - I can only get 3 months worth of chart - new co ?
re: SRX - nice 100% in 3 days but .. too late for me - I would have seen the signal in the chart just before it happened, but my signal is specialized and there is no fn way I can screen for it. At least not just yet. The only way is to have a watch list and look it up case by case daily.
re: TLC - pretty solid case .. but only if it makes it to above 14.50. Right now it tests resistance..
Another problem (which I hate) is the potential for problems - eye surgery - can you imagine what lawsuit talk can do to a portfolio? grrr
oh yeah nt: it just triggered one of my buy signals. You should be worry not about the MA200 but the MA60 that kept it down so far.
I put an order today to buy 2000 but it wasn't taken.. and I don't seem to care! This should say something.
I was thinking about the fact that no matter the bad news the stock seems to have a floor at 3.
If the numbers we know are more or less true and NT did half, my question is - assuming FD didn't fuck around with the books, and we would've known the true reality all along, what the PPS would have done in 2003, and then in 2004?
(I think in between 2 and 3$US because there it was when we thought it to be half.. which was the true best they did - if true this is a sell then and 2.xx a buy, but if business is bad then a buy would be 1.7 - 1.8)
I think that should give us a pretty good idea of the true floor, or upper limit. I'm not good at this kind of calculations and I'd listen to the better guys (but trade by my signals).
I do feel however that the business is in real trouble and a BK may be needed to wash out the shares and the huge debt and the liabilities.. one shot and get 3 big fat birdies (long investors ? who ever cares)
I'd hate to be long when they would do this, but I'd love to be able to buy the new NT after the fact.
Another way would be to manipulate the shares in such a way to milk the value out of it and into the company. For example they can R/S, drop the PPS some 70%, turn around and buy back the shares , and then let it rise for another game..
Very risky for me. I'm just a kid on the Wall Street
Money management issue:
some companies like NT, YRI, UTS, SPC, SRX, are in the low dollar range. This kills you in Canada as a trader if you are wrong.
Give you an example: if you make 2% in few days consistently it is great. But if you buy 1-3$ stock you get nothing from the 2%, even if you invested 30,000$. It all goes to the Canadian Bank Man (30$/1000 shares).
If you trade a stock that soak all the 30,000$ capital inside 1000 shares (a stock of 30$ or more value), then you get to keep 90% of the profit! -your work and risk value.
That's why I hate low priced stock (in Canadian accounts).
So I like it higher and with decent volume, decent cash flow, low risk of trouble, and some story to have an upside.
gettin long here
let's go and have some Canadian turkey
cheers
p.s. 1) PSAR works best in presence of a trend, so if trend was absent the PSAR signal should be of second consideration (filtered). That's what the wise guys say.
2) my signal is a relatively new born summary of some of my education and experience. It doesn't give me the bottom nor the top, but should get me in for a profit and get me out when the music is about to stop.
Of course there are instances when it won't even show, when other common sense things should kick in and wake me up to reality (LOL).
One stock that really gave me a headache with this signal was CSCO... almost like they knew it LOL. So I had to use a ... "CSCO" filter. On NT it is working just fine, but NT manipulator likes to use "shock therapy" which seems to wipe out ANY gain I could've possibly make with this. My discipline saved my skin from riding to downtown.
3) BGO seems decent , and has story (gold /dollar story); watch list - BLD, BVF and BMO(die hard)
unfortunately the last statement is false
(here) "all opinions are usually respected, both pro and con."
probably to make you feel good about yourself, LOL
Nope, you are the same person
If you want to be better you have to act better
then you'll feel better about yourself and the words will reflect reality.
It can be done by some people
sage, YRI looks sick
it just transformed 3.8 in a resistance, and in this particular case if it closes bellow yesterday LOD, more red to come short term IMO.
The PPS is small which can leverage negatively quite quickly both on the account and on nerves.
I don't own it, but if I would I'd put a stop below yesterday LOD, which should've been hit by now.
The trendline is around 3.6 (near today's LOD) and should be a buy point, but the problem is that there are few negative divergences. ADX still looks cool LOL.
good luck
hello sage, welcome back
Good to see you again. Don't worry about answering late ;)
it's always a pleasure to see few lines from you.
I was busy too. I'm actually over my head. I got more than I can chew , LOL.
The bull or bear markets are a reflection of cycles in reality. At times they are fooled with.. like 2002 case, and then sparingly in 2004.
The reality was twisted beyond belief. Probably because the politics and security.
In so the values are mixed: some points in the economy or some companies should be higher but are not, while others that should be lower are stepping on the moon.
Can't complain, but we're walking a mine field.
Something terrible has happened in the last few years in the world economy and is crystal clear in the very long multi-year weekly charts of the indices. What it means and where we are headed is beyond my power of understanding. I just note that we walk NEW ground.
You can start to see the negativity already -oil rise, USD weakness .. and careless for this(!!), gold hedging seen bad, tech mature as a whole (not much advancement or new), rates at 40 years lows for long time now .. and reluctance and fear to rise it to "normality" .. - I tell you we're on new grounds in some 60 years. Something is gonna give. The world economy is abnormal and so is gonna be the markets.
I guess we have to take it day by day and hedge ourselves as much as we can.
AMD went nuts. It looks to have neared the max up potential.
INTC is a laggard. I observed 'they' rotate the stocks inside a group and not just the group.
YRI.TO is indeed a good choice as chart goes (thanks for the tip). For me the buy signal would've been triggered at around 3.6 .... EXACTLY on the close on the day of your posting. Too bad I didn't read it 'fresh'. Even now it looks good.. but I'd be chasing it. Tomorrow may 'rest'. (it has potential to 4.5 or better)
I do like to look at BBands but they are notoriously laggards. The histogram seems to help it somewhat. A coordination of BB with other indicators improve the results.
I am somewhat disgusted by ADX (thanx MM ..LOL). Sometimes ADX behave normally and set you in for a cool ride (like last happy ride on AMD), and sometimes it gives you an entry ... at a top. I find it weird to say the list.
Nice cartoon on the fuel cell. I don't know details on it. I do understand however that we're screwed and need a new energy. This is the best I can see. No nuclear energy for cars, LOL.
The price of oil will eventually push this forward. Once they do it it's not going back. The oil will be left in the ground and the Arabs will beg you to buy some for plastics and such. I believe that technologic related companies like BLD will have wild rides out of the blue.
For just in case, to be on the safe side is good to have some shares. The only problem is the unknown waiting time which could be years (for grand children?).
NT? not a buy signal yet. In spite of all the green displayed lately it sucks on the charts and sucks on fundamentals, and has great risk attached. Even if it would trigger a buy signal I'd be scared to buy it. I miss playing NT. Those idiots damaged it badly.
I believe (and fear) it is going to be a full disclosure .. toward the important people (judges, gov, MM, institutions), and a ........ separate version for the public (us the suckers).
If they have financial trouble then shares are worthless. A BK could work well also in regard to the class actions.. NOT a penny for them (us) anymore - the shield of BK.
Then new shares.
The game wasn't fair, and it is not going to change.
People came to believe that 3 is a low price. No one thinks otherwise. No one believes it to go lower still or expire.
Sure , the company may live on ... but the shares are another story. I think it will file for BK and wipe out EVERY long bagholder in sight, and then start a new NT with no debt, no obligations..
It makes business sense to me.
good luck with your YRI (I may nibble)
cheers
p.s. thanks for infos
when wishful thinking meets reality
cheers
Thanx sage, still busy
try riding INTC lately
hope to get lucky
The market became volatile but is pulsing rather upward
That means .. careful with the shorting
Shorting now should be done in :
1) dogs of this market ,
2) extremely overbought companies (never mind the E/A),
3) companies being rotated
BLD.TO may be a sleepy 'MSFT' (new promising energy/tech)
cheers
sage, your approach is good
however, there are problems..
It tend to works on sure real moves, long moves, likes the trending moves that are left to run.
How many are they? Majority? Nah.
Exception was made in the rigged market 2003 when fed money held a bid under a majority of stocks regardless of sentiments and reality. Mind you, that's about to end.... right about.....NOW.
The MAs also lag badly. You need to help them with other indicators. Above all learn to interpret psychology behind price behave. Might help avoid MRK plunge or nortelling.
-------
I trade CSCO because it's a way - aka learn a stock inside out, and learn to trade and improve the scores.
I happen to like also the volatility on AMD. You can really score there if you're good as a trader. No kidding.
----------
I didn't intend to give you a lecture on marriage / woman.
Sorry if it felt that way. I just wanted to give from my knowledge. I'm not Rasputin but I believe I have above average knowledge in the matter.
Glad to help to whomever need/want.
Do I keep secrets? Not really, but I guess anybody may have some things left to say.
"Does your wife know about all the times you've cheated on her or just some of them? LOL "
Well, I didn't cheat on her. Not likely to either.
Don't even think I don't know how or I didn't have opportunities. As a matter of fact I fought to keep few insistent women away. Not an easy thing mind you. You can't call me fool since you don't know what I know either (knowledge).
Lets simplify it: if you want a good wife, you got to be a good husband. (not think you are one but be)
Don't worry , I'll end the subject here as serious talk is concerned. I may later joke along.
-------
- I'm kind of busy lately.
- Liked the empty senseless move of 7% on NT the other day.
I still think $2 is not far off.
- Market has to decide yet the next move
I don't believe we'll have a rally, nor a drop. Probably a flat rangebound October.
Today window dressing sucks. Are 'they' dumping?
cheers
sage, I like you're optimistic
I can see what you see
But I can also see what I see.
Yes, beer helps.. one side.
Maybe my tolerance for pain is too low?
NT is on a kind of support level. Holding? Don't know.
This is the price before hoopla isn't it? The hoopla was false. Where we should expect the price to go then?
I'm still chicken on it.
------
re: "I'm too smart to get married".
I don't know your age (which matters), and don't want to push you to anything. Nor judging either.
However , consider this:
1) you meet women and have good sexual time. The gain stops there.
If I was to speak about negatives I'd easily overcome that.
2) you marry a woman that it's not right for you.
Probably not any better than point 1, except you may have a child (hopefully) yours.
3) you marry a woman that is right for you. This beats everything hands down. You can not possibly have an argument (not one!) against this. Not even the argument that you lost 100% independence, since a right wife would support you in everything you ever want/do in life, except going against her and/or the children.
She should also shadow the other women sexually - no need to cheat around.
The thing is, this is the hardest thing to accomplish in life. Harder than striking it reach in the stock market. This high degree of difficulty , along with fear of commitment and increase in responsibilities are the chief reasons for people fearing and failing marriage (both genders, but mainly men).
If accomplished, no joy can be greater. If such a wife is lost, no amount of money , booze, and no # of 'nice girls' can make up for it.
A compromise is to get a wife very close to the ideal and 'adjust things' around. Not an easy thing to do and it needs couching.
Sex feels good, but you just fed your bodily need. It's like eating for the sake of surviving, as food it's a natural essential need. The soul need sex too. If you can have a sex in which all your being -body AND soul- participate, your pleasure it's gonna go through the roof and pass anything you ever had, including 'special jobs'.
Of course, I didn't mean to shrink a right wife into a perfect sex toy. There's way more to it.
My advice to anyone, be open to get marry, but be slow into decision, and try testing all you can before any talk of marriage - too much at stake.
(I always wonder how's life to have many wives like in the old times. I really do)
-----
re "It sucks when the chart won't display": yes
1) it's because you forgot to take away http://
2) don't worry sage, they'll open for papa..
cheers
p.s.
- thanks for charts
- sometimes it takes long (many days) for you to answer. I actually gave up.
Don't worry I understand if you're busy (whatever the reason)
cold/b, thanks for understanding. I guess complains should be made as often as possible and as massive as possible.
But try not to talk with the nobodies at customer service. Find the 'heads'.
Address to high rank officials of financial institutions (maybe SEC commission?), and to as many levels of government you can, including opposition. Also media (papers) are a good place. Try to involve as many voices as you can.
I know it seems a lot of trouble but it's not really. With internet you can mass mail a copy, and I think for gov you won't have to pay stamp in case you want to send letters.
Just do whatever you can, whenever you can. Any help it's gonna matter.
This is not gonna fix overnight since it's old, and many rats are involved. Also governments usually move slow.
But if complains would pile big enough, and people make enough noise we'd stand a chance. Hopefully in our lifetime.
I know it's woth it. We have enough trouble with the markets.
We need to have a fair system.
thanx
cheers
sage, I assume TD Waterhouse are the same as the crocks at BMO.
That would mean you can trade outside market hours but only through a broker of theirs at even higher commission...
But in certain circumstances like yesterday it's worth it.
Just give them a phone and say you want to buy xyz or liquidate xyz, whatever the case may be.
Did you liquidate it or you decided to hold and hope for a break even?
It may happen, but to me the chart looks crappy with more downside. Looks like it's adjusting to a downtrend.
I'm wondering when RIM it's gonna run out of gas and plunge like that.
cheers
p.s. I also got so many kicks that I became numb LOL. I'd say better to try and keep wife out of this (don't want aggravation..)
sage, so did you sell out in AH or listen to greed and held?
re: 'C$/US$ conversion in my SDRSP. It ain't gonna hurt much. LOL '
LOL indeed. I disagree. The conversion is PERCENTAGE , which matters A LOT.
And on top of it, since you're not allowed cash balance in US$ at any given time, not even for a milisec fraction of time you're gonna be slapped on EACH move.
Don't be happy if you get robbed just because the robbers are the banks and is "legal". Robbing is robbing no matter who's doing it, no matter if it's done behind a crocked law, obviously premeditated. You should protest at any possibility. It must change and you and me and anybody else can help it happen. It is wrong regulation. It must end.
JMO
cheers
sage, re foreign content limit in SDRSP
I was exploring the issue too, but other than a day-trading (and close early in the day for a flat exchange rate!) I couldn't see how you can avoid the killer conversion rate.
Well, of course if you get a big runner it won't matter much (still..) but otherwise it's a profit killer. This because (to my knowledge) we're not allowed USD in RRSP accounts. Just CDN. To force you to get skinned, scalped and bended.
Well at least that's what BMO BS me. I hate them.
What do you know about that?
cheers
sage, it seems my reads on my posts 2296, 2308
regarding QCOM were right on dead on after all..
I hope you sold half above 41 (if you care, that is).
I know, ... from personal experience.. it is mighty difficult to sell when it is rising and sunny, and hard to buy when all seem to dump it.
---
What is the significance IYO of percentage of program trading?
---
that globeandmail tech analyst is off, and (or because) is making use of little and simple factors. Maybe she was hired to do so (pump to get bids).
cheers
thanxes to Cramer,telebits should be in order..
how's the hopes for China?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^SSEC&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
...
Just look at the NT mx-pain
$3-4
it all looks just one sided big fatso mountain - just calls. It seems everyone and his neighbor is bullish.
When this happens, when everybody is on one side, waiting to cash in , when it all seems easy money , what usually happens in the market?
I'll let you give the answer.
But really, can you possible think straight while being long? Especially after being delighted by last couple of days?
High hopes (P/H).
There is the company (dog IMO), and there's the stock (speculative).
For all purposes some technicals started looking good in conventional wisdom.
I'm not bitter because I have other horses. Just commenting my 2 pennies on the hog.
cheers
sage, as I see it QCOM got into a buy climax
Good if you're in. It definitely can set one more day higher, but it seems to fly on fumes.
I keep the same outlook as before.
However, if it passes a critical point it can go way higher.
careful there (keep the gold)
cheers
it sounds about right, however
if the majority of johns think the same we're not likely to get much. Same for NT.
MM like (logically) to do a contrarian approach. Safer and more juicy for them..
Then the elections ..
I think we'll remain selective
cheers
I'm wondering how this works
"Next week, if I keep my mouth shut long enough not to trigger my trading restrictions, I will be free to trade these stocks and I will buy more of them."
So he try pumping it now (he's under water!) and then he becomes restricted (locked out) to trade it for a week?
Probably also locked out by regulations one week before pumping?
That would be interesting to know
cool, I think the dog is jumping alongside judging by shadows and light. They often do and this looks young.
It's like you extend your arm and someone takes a picture in such an angle that it'll look as if you grab someone's breast, while in reality you are apart.
I liked to do few art pictures myself, and even had my own photo lab back in the teen years.
good eye
I like the houses too.
cheers
sage, US investments are best but Canadian investments have some special magic to it. Donno that's my feel anyway.
Too bad we can't come around infos the way we can with US stocks.
As always, I appreciate your insights and input.
Why CSCO: it's a solid company and a great stock for trading. I look at it like at a wild horse that I want to ride. It doesn't mean it's the only one.
QCOM had a solid run. I don't know if you hold it at the present. It must correct a little if it's to rise 'normal'.
My take is that it is in a point that can correct some $2, or push and run into a climax buying at around 41.5. A bullish alternative would be if she goes sideways for 2 weeks - but then it's gonna have a test. If passed, look up, if not..
Indicators suggest (to me) smart money is noting but dumping , exiting big time starting from mid June. 'They' have mass quantities and can't afford to exit in one week. Just because price rose 5% more since (dumping started), doesn't mean things are dandy. If I had it I'd sell out today , for short term at least. Indicators suggest roll over imminent - but not confirmed yet.
be careful
-----
I've read. It's good.
-----
I have a problem with NT with respect to relativity.
We don't know numbers, nor reality, so we can't reasonably estimate a PPS. Are we down to 3.6 or ... are we up sky high to 3.6? Mass of people bought the pig on expectations and hope. Many more hold it for so long even though deep under (their) water.
Sorry but I can't cheer. Well, maybe after few beers. I think the market will go against the masses. Reason? MONEY/(cheap?) shares.
This would mean only one thing - lower. In fact way lower. I guess somewhere bellow $2.
Of course, it can start a rally. But it would mean 'logic' and 'normal' are here (market). It would mean good and easy money. I don't think so.
Some real stinky price action has to take place to force longs out for a rally to have a chance (i.e. Oct 2002). Canadians are good at this. Look at Bombardier (BBD/B.TO). A ruthless downtrend (any scale!). 'They' stopped short of selling it into the ground. NT next to a trip bellow 0.43? That out to shake some die hard bulls (not to mention margin calls).
-----
do/did you trade money (FOREX - this is not futures) ? What's your opinion?
I attended a presentation and it seems pretty cool to me. It's a 24hr/6 market. Trade whenever you have time and mood. If you get up at night and feel like trading, NP. They give you a huge margin (100/1) and (in spite of using even full margin) you can't possible lose more than your own capital. No margin call! No human intervention (no MM/specialist to play you). No trading fee. No lying CFO to gap you down 20%. No cooked books.
Must be some catches (I guess) but so is the market (or worse).
cheers
Company now expects to file by the end of October 2004 the financial statements for the year 2003 and the first and second quarters of 2004 and related periodic reports, and follow thereafter, as soon as practicable, with any required amendments to periodic reports for prior periods. The Company's previous expectation was that it would file these financial statements and related periodic reports by the end of the third quarter of 2004.
--------
delay, but why so long delayed 2004 if it's any good?
At least Q2 2004 should've been reported fully, normally, and on time.
JMO
cheers
Who said NT can't make a smart guy rich (and famous..)?
Home sweet home. This guy knows (personal) financial business. He's good on financials.. well, not for you that is.
Got the bonus $mills , used it as collateral to get a mortgage RIGHT AWAY. Bought the property WITH the mortgage money making it CLEAN. Now he can pay back the mortgage before they can freeze the account. The house is the family's , so tough luck to investors to get a piece back. Declare BK and wait it out 7 yrs.
Wife is happy. And they lived happily ever after. Maybe she helped him think?.. 'Cherche la femme'
Oh, and they can use the property later as collateral to get even bigger mortgages and build more..
Meanwhile investors bagholders jump up and down whenever the stock moved few pennies.. Their wives vs. Dunn's wife, not so happy I guess.
just look what your money can do
cheers
this may be a good link to add to market pulse
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/FOMOOutChart.asp
sage, thanx for the Canadian links
They are not that useful (kind of sucks) but it's still something. I couldn't find yet a good link. The search engines not always serve you. One must wade through lots of links and garbage. The best source are the people hence my appeal.
Unfortunately this board is as it is(...), and you were the only sympathetic guy.
I have some decent links for US (from people!) but I really need something for Canadian side. For TD waterhouse I'd need an account, and my broker deals all US, and my Canadian broker BMO sucks.
--------
Sorry, but IMO the economy and the markets right now are a resemblance of the Titanic drama. The thing is in a desperate condition (economy AND the masses)... while the band is playing (propaganda, market manipulation).
We are in front of a crash situation. Will it happen? It all depends on the power centers. (power shifts around)
Better study some market crash signals, and don't hold major holdings in overnight long positions. At least if burned we'll survive another day.
---------
I don't know much about fundamentals. Why caving/correcting or silly rallying? Who knows. Greed, fear, bubble.
I'm a chart lover (1 picture = 1000 words). I look at a chart and read things. The 'tomorrow' signals are rare but yet the most important ones. If you missed one ... prepare to shed some money.
Usually the chart would offer a general aspect. I try to smooth the volatility, compare the moves, check out the support behavior , and try to see if/what patterns were/are created there. Sometimes I either chose very long range charts , or just look at the monitor from far (the bed) ... 15 feet away. It helps with the shape recognition.
I 'saw' Qs at 32.5 --> more than 3 weeks ahead.
I didn't trade it (yet!) because I concentrate greatly on csco. Kind of a personal thing here... (with NT too but is on hold).
It looks to me that Qs recent low will likely be 'visited' again (bounce from it or from about 31.8x). If selloff , then 30 should offer support (as I already said in the other post).
- no matter the action, if (Monday) cube closes bellow 33.7.. the bear is gonna have fun.. (hold long position at own risk)
Now it's at a resistance zone. Remember - this market is not sane. Look at NT. Horrifying news ... yet it was rallied...
Elation was created over a bunch of malarkey.
It should have dropped way bellow 3. It amuses me. Like csco today - it should've rallied ... yet it dropped like a rock. I watched amused all the selling at 18.6x. 'Nature' called in and ... it rallied like a spring all the way back up ... in last minutes!
(manipulators of) NT amuses me just the same.
I for one admire them (the specialist).
In spite of all the hoopla NT chart has problems...
In short term the specialist (and some dirty pumping tv heads)worked hard to put in a bullish bias. However, the eagle view suggest few ferocious resistances: 1st at 3.8x-4 (about now/here), 2nd at 5 , 3rd at 6.xx, after which the last 52H.
I don't mind that NT is a BKed company, has corrupted scumbags in 'management' (still there!), lies over lies and empty hype from all corners (including these BBs and some media), high price manipulation. If/after the lies get somewhat stabilized, in spite of all this fake world, if chart says $100 (like stupid TASR) I'll hop on bandwagon. No comment..
We are at a resistance!
The chart shows 3 as a weak support, and 2-2.5 as next 'floor'.
Why we'd get there? Don't know. Probably next time around the news will be interpreted in a normal way..
If this resistance is taken out in a certain way, then it will become a strong support.
In the mean time I'll play csco ... which for whatever reason also looks like it's going into crashing any time now (some $4)!!!!
Market bell? brrrrr
cheers
sage, I agree that the market action is taking it's tool on people's nerves, creating something in us like a double, probably a grumpy one. definitely not a smart one.
However, the real person shall always stay in control and or return to reality.
Say you're nervous from driving, you come home and do some yelling. It's the momentum? Maybe. But after a while you shall return to truly you.
If you didn't/couldn't then THAT's you. No dreams and excuses.
And very important, getting nervous over market action is stupid and bad. It must be prevented by all means. It makes you emotional = loser.
Ironically, I long thought of Ben as a guru in emotion control! He even inspired me in this.
I'm not so sure of this now.
...
thanks for the link and explanation (last post)
There are few theories about this. You can see that the touch not always work. Even from their explanations. Sometimes you make money ... just to give it back later on ... following the same thing. However it's a valuable aid.
Not bragging, but I wrote you that the cube is gonna drop.
"FWIW (my read), QQQ is now in a critical period. If it can't hold the ground (I think it won't), chances are that it will hit 33 , or even 32.5. (Nasdaq 1800 or lower) Well, it can even slide to 30 before (elections) bounce/rally...... when this (nowadays levels) will be a top."
The system wouldn't say that, definitely not then!
My understanding is that there are few TA elements for use. Not all of them work all the time. It's up to you to pick the right one. i.e. price drops to MA200 or another believed support line. Should you jump in and buy, or it will fail and price will slice right through?
Different people see /interpret things differently ... creating the market... suckers, fools, and the few...
We all look at the same charts and data. You must see the right thing or else..
There are things that you discover ONLY after staring weeks over the same chart. Like the Bible, the more you read the same things the more you understand new things.
...
The manipulators knew that 'we' know that the election year is bullish... so they rallied the markets ahead of it. Then (now) they sell ... while the suckers buy high...
Very smart !
I assume we'll still see some form of rally (hope not a 2002 summer again!), but it will be weak and more like a congestion.
I also assume by the election we'll be ... around here or lower. After election? Tough one, but the odds are bullish.
The oil must come down or ..... we'll violate 2002 lows..
And then for sure it'll come/crash down.
cheers