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Hey BioChica, quit selling. Let 'er ride!
On a serious note, King's optimistic language used in the presentation plus PJ's coverage sure does give one a new hope in the future performance of PPHM. Looking forward to the weeks/months ahead.
Gut feeling says it will fly after lunch. Loof and Wook are you ready with the rocket?
REASON: large blocks were buying just before lunch. Possibly someone wanting to "get in" while they still can.
Notice how Cotara is labeled a "high risk but potentially high-return" candidate. But Bavi is not a "high risk" candidate.
Mr. Duncan has a great deal of credibility. It's a nice win!
AF is in denial. When is his next hit piece coming out? Or is he too busy trying to refute other Bio stocks that are about launch their FDA approved product. (ARNA comes to mind)
RE: Settlement
I believe someone posted a few weeks ago about how an extension was given for the lawsuit between Peregrine and CSM. Wasn't the date 3/8 ? So, if that is the case, and CSM does intend to settle out of court, there should be resolution this week. But I doubt that would be part of the 10-k for 2012. It may just be a line item in the earnings release three months from now.
and why is this not a material event
Batteries??? No, use the plug in kind.
Purchase a large, digital - it's got to be the red digital kind with seconds - clock. Put it right above your computer screen. After a few tries you will get it right. Look at all the attempts just before 16:00:00. Someone was calibrating their clock today.
It used to be that keen traders used an hour glass. But the grains of sand clinging to the side of glass towards the end made it difficult to gauge that last split second.
Digital. Remember digital. LED preferably.
There is discussion elsewhere of China partnering.
Think of this; Eisai/Arena agree with the DEA to run the review of public comments the entire 45 days. In return, Belviq is exempt for the 30 day hold period afterwards. This may explain why Eisai was able to plan a sales training meeting, and it could also explain the reason why Arena pulled forward it's earnings/cc date. Both know when the magic date is - and it is near!
Wildhorses, you missed a couple paragraphs that should be in Spanish. If you need help, look to use Google translate to post them. Remember, names like Jose, Jorge and Juan will throw the reader off too.
And don't forget the analogies to take focus off the important highlights. Need those analogies...
While your post was in jest, it is sad the extent to which these characters go for their bosses.
Only if it were a level playing field, pistol. We know the answer to that. Your arguments of stock price being impartially judged is worthless until it's a level playing field.
Yeah, I noticed that myself. Once talk of DNDN scenario and other obvious discussions about negative actions towards PPHM started taking place they hid away. What's obvious to us may not be obvious to SEC, but maybe the FBI could connect the dots while they run investigation into the NSCLC trial. Dare to dream that justice is out there!
Boston/New York
Wook, thanks for the update. No more need to hash over the CSM lawsuit right now.
Focus on Boston and New York. What does that mean? Could it be that there are two suitors out for bavi. One is in the Boston area. The other in New York area. Utmost importance is a pretty strong perspective.
Sure appears to be closing in on a deal. Both parties may want to have it finalized before the Roth conference March 17-20.
Well, maybe, just maybe, the next few weeks could be as oppositely interesting as the last few were.
Fidelity is confirming March 12 after close.
Sounds like a firm working against the stock and/or company to me. I was eyewitness to the DNDN story before coming to PPHM. It's very familiar discussions, counterpoints, characters, stock movements, etc. The money is good, but the game is what drives them.
One would have to be quite naive and foolish to not know what is going on here. The "market" is not what prices PPHM at $1.81 as you state. You should be frustrated because of that, not because of the BOD.
Lawsuit
Now that the NSCLC data appears to be cleared up, what direction does Peregrine go with the lawsuit against the CRO? Possibly a settlement out of court within the next two weeks?
Frustrated (by name only),
It's unlike you not to include a whiny sentence about the Pre-RS PPS vs. current price. What's up with that? Are you changing your ways now that your complaint list is being answered - and shortened - slowly but surely. Once price gets above the pre-RS price what more will you have to complain about?
If I may, here's a list to start on:
-who the partner will be
-how the partnership is structured
-why Peregrine decided to pursue Breakthrough Therapy
-that if it weren't for the RS the price would be $30 instead of $18 (use any numbers you want in this scenario)
-the amount of time the Phase III will take to complete
I, for one, second that notion! Based on all the theories and conjectures put forth by the iHub board members it just goes to show how much can be read into the information, or lack thereof, given by the company. If, truly, they have something special in Bavi, they need to compile a fully accurate and transparent report of all the NSCLC trial data. If it takes time, so be it. But anything less, given the 5+ months they have been re-hashing data would be a huge dissappointment as a shareholder.
That could very well be the case. The statement is too vague though, and that's Peregrine's MO, I get it. Possibly, the next PR they release could be just a little more definitive and have more detail that does not need to - and cannot- be picked apart.
Lung is right now the hinge to Peregrine's success.
It may have been this part of Shan's statement that caused the concern:
"In light of this data, as well as other recent developments in the treatment of pancreatic cancer, we are actively evaluating the next steps for advancing the bavituximab pancreatic program," said Joseph Shan.
One can read between the lines and conclude that Peregrine is shelving the Bavi Pancreatic pursuit. I may be wrong - I hope I am - but that part of the PR is what stuck out to me. Some companies leave it vague when concluding a study.
Good signal kingransome. Bought in after seeing this too. CLSN will be manipulated and will make for a good trading stock with these kinds of signals.
And there you have it folks! A perfectly carved out shallow, artisanal bowl for our intraday trading delight. This time with relatively low volume. It throws out any speculation of yesterday's break in pattern. So, we come back tomorrow to see what beautifully designed figure will come of the MM's handiwork. Will it be another cup or bowl? Or, will the MM start getting a creative flight and give us an impressionistic painting resembling a steep mountain range?
The U-shaped intraday trading curve is now inverted. This could mean there is uncertainty in how the MMs can manage PPHM because time is closing in on substantial updates, or it could mean we had enough hype over the weekend to get some people excited about Monday trading.
Intraday pattern would be inverted if it holds through lunch. Volume is up from the 5 day average. Some anticipation of things to come maybe?
Still needs to close above $2.20 to make it worthwhile.
Thanks centurycom,
but it still does not give a breakdown of the tiered milestone payments based on sales. The payments start at $250 M in gross sales (what the payment amount is is still not clear) and Arena is eligible for up to $1.16 Billion.
So that raises another question; the amount of $1.16 Billion that Arena is eligible for, does that include both the milestone payments and pricepoint adjustments or is it only the milestone payemts included in that number?
Either way, it's quite a chunk of change to be making on top of the 31.5% of gross sales. Arena has gotten the better part of the deal if Belviq sales go according to plan.
I found this in the 10-Q:
In addition, we are eligible to receive up to an aggregate of $1.19 billion in one-time purchase price adjustments and other payments based on Eisai’s annual net sales of BELVIQ in all of the territories under our agreement on an aggregate basis, with the first and last amounts payable with annual net sales of $250.0 million and $2.5 billion, respectively. Of these payments, Eisai will pay us a total of $330.0 million for annual net sales of up to $1.0 billion.
Newbie question here:
Where can I find the milestone payment amounts that were agreed upon between Arena and Eisai?
You just opened a fun can of worms with your post. So many dots to connect - specifically his work in NSCLC. Nicely done!
Is a request for breakthrough designation material enough to require a PR? Or do we need to wait for a verdict from the FDA?
Also, the FDA leaves an out; "In General- a request is responded to within 60 calendar days." Knowing the FDA, I am not holding out for March 4th. But your thought has some merit to it. Maybe mid March is more like it.
If indeed, Bavi is granted breakthrough designation it would certainly put PPHM into the double digits, not to mention the incredible leverege while negotiating with a BP - if indeed that is the route management eventually takes. However, if breakthrough designation is granted, does Peregrine even pursue a partner?
The risk of PPHM going below $1 again is extremely low. Keep in mind, the revenues Avid is bringing in offers value to Peregrine that is worth at least 75c/share. Cotara having been approved to go into PIII adds some value as well. Bavi would need to be a complete flop - which is not what it appears to be. Imaging has value to it as well. There seems to be much more upside in PPHM than downside. But you are right, there are a lot of "ifs" to make this happen. As Paul reminds us daily, each day without news is actually positive in the long run.
My thought of news is that Roche and Peregrine will finally lock in an agreement for Bavi. I see an upfront payment of $500 M with installments in the hundreds of millions when certain criteria are met, the last of which is a $1 Billion check upon PIII approval. Roche gets 100 Million shares of PPHM and certain percentage of sales. Peregrine limits the partnership to oncology with first right of refusal for virus studies. Roche agrees to multiple PIII studies and FDA agrees to fast track Bavi. Stock price rises to $12/share in one day. As the partnership is digested by the investment community it hovers up into the low teens. Just when you are thinking it's going to slide back a little, Astra Zeneca comes in with a partnership for Cotara. PPS rises to $18/share. This all happens on February 18th, of course. The next day I receive a shipment through FedEx. It's a highly potent liquid. The box still lingers with the scent of Tessi May's perfume.
Just daydreaming while being lulled to sleep here.
Or a finish above $2.20 would be of some assurance as well. But you are right, more volume would be a decent indication.
Somehow this feels familiar with December end of month / January beginning of month.
FreeTheMice raised some very good points about ASCO. That is, in my opinion, where focus should be put.
Manipulation?
Isn't this just continued manipulation? Volume is still light. The stock went sub $2 for only a few days. Now it is just recovering back to the flat levels it was at a week ago. Like that number 2.15.
Volume is too light for bad news. Purely manipulation.
I agree 100%! Thank you PG.
All for the good of humanity...
So much for the theory of today being the day.
Good assessment.
Obviously, the buying has ceased at $2.15 and PPS is now under a bit of downward pressure. So, if the MLV transaction you speak of was truly occuring at $2.15 it now appears to be done. What does that mean? Could be the partnership is within the SEC window to be announced. Right now the MMs are just shaking the tree and taking what they can below the partner price - because they can...
Tomorrow: I still contend, tomorrow (January 25th) may be the pivotal date in Peregine's history. We shall see.