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A bearish view:
The Qs created a recognizable pattern that could easily be interpreted as a SELL signal.
Interestingly, SPX was left behind the Q moves and did not generate such a pattern. However, the timing discrepancy between these 2 indices is not new and might be interpreted as an enforcement of the SELL QQQQ signal.
During this weekend, several market analysts (finally) noticed that the financials are not confirming the “rally” and considered that without them the up-trend cannot continue.
So, I looked at GS, whom we all love.
THEY definitely know how to lift it, generating a BUY signal (chart1)…But will it be confirmed (charts 2 and 3)?
Leaders recently down: AAPL, AMZN, AKAM, DE, CAT, NFLX, PCLN, FSLR, BIDU
Probably a coincidence…
…while, in contrast, Market Thrust , McClellan Osc and $ADV trend indicators suggest a renewed vigor in the market at large…
Yes.. it's complicated. SPX also hit the target 0f 1157 and reversed...US$ UP!
Strong TNA & IWM. In the pre-market the trend continues.
Scalping TNA yesterday and acquiring some long positions (IWM calls) for the BB day…
The fragmented polygons spread on the chart are “deconstructed” formations which were all negated soon after they appeared. The valid formations generated signals.
According to CNBC:
Shares of Apple [AAPL 286.9156 -4.2484 (-1.46%) ] recovered after falling nearly 6 percent following speculation that Tim Cook, a top executive, would be going to Hewlett-Packard [HPQ 41.58 0.32 (+0.78%) ] to replace former CEO Mark Hurd, but analysts dismissed the rumors, saying Cook is a favorite to succeed Apple's CEO Steve Jobs.
NO! just the opposite!
The FED: http://www.federalreserve.gov/whatsnext.htm
2 public appearances the same day!!! So… that fits with the POMO day... Expectations are obvious.
IMPORTANT for timing: apparently, BB has a town hall meeting on Thursday. Could we find out when and where?
TNX:drop in the pre-market...finally. TLT UP!
This "rally" is more than "mature".
TNX did not break out at Gann point 4, previously discussed…It wasn’t rejected either . It closed exactly on the “decision line“. So…no signal! Bummer!
Probably only a coincidence...but BB is talking in Princeton today…and he got this recent phobia of tanking the market…
Intraday Gann rule of 4 for TNX: now at the decisive point 4...trying to break out. If it does...new highs for SPY
No , not yet...
I just realized that on the chart posted yesterday (click above) every previous SELL signal was followed by an aborted rally.
I think so too.
I have a hedge today : SPY puts + QQQQ calls, with a bias on the short side. My [McClellan + $ADV] indicator is still on SELL, in spite of the UN speach-induced RAMPO...
WOW! Good luck!
VIX Oct 25 calls @ 2.20 & SPY 111 P @ 1.39
VIX Oct 25 calls & SPY Oct 111 puts
A close at this level, with a TRIN>1.1 and a flat TICK ribbon (staying all under 0) would result in a SELL signal, as discussed last night.
GS gave an intriguing intraday BUY signal. One wonders whether that DB pseudo-downgrade was not an act of courtesy...Some people have acquired today a remarkable appetite for GS Oct 160 calls...
SSO puts vol = 18k; P/C vol = 18/11. Nothing alarming yet. After all, we are overbought…and people buy “protection” (IMO).
Anybody watching TLT here?
The kabuki performance yesterday was well staged: softball questions , heartbreaking anecdotes for which he was compassionate… That is why CNBC was offered the contract for the show. They are “da best“!
Subsequently…5.2 B were spilled into the market to do whatever was necessary…