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Pass the pretzels and the Kool-aid...
Perhaps you should also invite anyone interested to review your record for the previous year.
PD???
You are going to have to teach me how you do that. Merlin has my back pretty well with which position to take, but other than just setting a limit at a guestimate of the opening price that may or may not get filled, I am not very adept at consistently getting good entries. And it very often happens that the limit I set is not quite reached, and then it takes off the other direction.
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=7383
Sorry, John, didn't know you owned it...
You got lucky this time, but with a daily RSI 4 < 30, a new Short is not a good bet...
There's a *huge* amount of open Put interest at strike prices above the current quotes for most symbols, so the option sellers (i.e. the pros) will want to push the prices up to reduce that amount as much as possible before the OE close, that is, if they aren't overwhelmed by more forced selling due to captitulative fund redemptions.
I can do the same thing with our system. Just use a uniform random variable that if > .5 go Long, and < .5 go Short, apply the Stops and money management and !Voila! you have a winning system. It is just sad that all the butterflies that flit from system to system in search of easy money don't understand the incredible advantage of a ~ 6% edge.
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=7383
The City of Lights in the desert was built with a 2 - 6% House edge...
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=7383
Even with a couple of recent losing trades, we're still up 23.6% for the month (view on C2).
There's also the theory that says when the market is acting totally irrationally, just flip a coin and you will be right half the time. The difficulty, of course, is in knowing when the market is being irrational versus just responding to normal trading pressures. We try not to pat ourselves on the back too much when we get lucky, nor beat ourselves up too much when the market throws us a curve. The bottom line is that whatever your strategy, you don't need much of an edge to beat the market.
We know we are going to miss our share, but that is the price of admission price for being there for the winners. We've seen (as you probably have also) days with almost the same internals as yesterday when the market went UP. In fact, that is the central tenet of Merlin's approach, i.e. take the signal that produced the better result over the backtest period.
Yes, a rather distinctive "tweezer bottom" today. Up 135 NQ pts from the lows, and a 4.5% gain from the open...
Yes, between Tue and Wed, we gave back ~ 2/3 of the nice gains on the previous two trades, but if you are going to trade the signal/system, that is a risk you have to be willing to take. Per our adaptive Stop strategy, the volatility has really widened out the Stop values perhaps beyond the tolerance of many, but it keeps the system from getting stopped out too soon and just missing an impending reversal.
We're still up for the week (at least at this writing) and up 15+% MTD.
My feeling is that this market behavior is not normal (but then, is it ever?), since there is still a lot of forced selling on account of capitulative fund redemptions by Mom and Pop.
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=7383
You may want to reconsider. We caught a crab today and were stopped out at -6.85% (1X).
Gloria - You really ought to come over and give us a try for a month. We have an introductory special of $75, of which $65 can be refunded if you decide it doesn't fit your trading style for whatever reason.
Well, on six sigma day like yesterday, even the dynamic approach isn't enough. However, it was interesting to see that even after the fact, a higher setting did would not have produced better returns over the long baseline period, i.e. there were many more instances where smaller profits were booked that in the aggregate was more than the amount we left on the table yesterday.
Last week was a *very* good week for Merlin traders.
gloe - We were Long and our profit target was reached. A Profit Stop is nothing more than a limit order to close a position when the profit target is reached, but how that value is determined is the trick. For our system, it varies dynamically day-by-day as a function of a long baseline standard deviation of price and a shorter term volatility ratio, which allows the Stops to "breath" around a more stable value that tracks the market's trading behavior over the longer time period. As you are probably aware, the market suffers greatly from the "recency" syndrome, and our dynamic, adaptive Stop approach attempts to exploit that.
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=7383
Get used to it, My Old Friend. The country is in the hands of the youth to whom critical thinking is alien, and they want change. They can't tell you what that is, but the want it nonetheless, and that is what Osama has promised them, plus a check of course.
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=7383
Sorry, I couldn't restrain myself. The country is going to hell in a handbasket. Pass the Kool-aid and the pretzels. Hail, President Osama... (and no, that wasn't a typo)
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=7383
Consumer spending will be the next nail in the coffin, and the next, Obama's election, which will give the Dems unfettered access to your wallet.
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=7383
Profit Stop hit. 108.1% annualized.
Profit Stop not quite hit...
Ummm, make that 98.2%. Are you starting to see a pattern here???
Make that 96.3% annualized...
He comes and goes. Two losing trades in row, and he's outta here.
Make that 71.7% annualized, worst case. It was a good day for TMG.
The graph here shows what the results would have been with the live signal for the current *and* legacy versions traded *exactly* at 1X/2X and with/without Stops. Differences with C2 are primarily due to margin differences (in case the trade goes against you, you need to trade at slightly less than the prescribed number of shares to be at full 2X to avoid a margin call), the daily compounding effect over time, and inefficiencies and the occasional error in trade execution on C2. Also, the starting point for these graphs is $10K in Oct 2006, while C2 shows the annualized returns since Nov 2007 with a different starting amount, which is when the TMG II version went live. The most current version of TMG II which included the integrated stop strategy was fully implemented until Feb 2008, and since then we have not had a losing month through some pretty challenging market trading conditions. Compare that to the average mutual fund, hedge fund, or any other index over the same period. I think it would be most helpful to focus on whether or not you are achieving better than our worst case (i.e. 67% annualized) in your own trading.
Sorry, you'll have to do some work yourself. Just eyeball it...
1X up until ~ mid-Aug, then slightly less than 2X.
TMG II Performance Update
Up 10 of last 12 months (best month July at 14.4%, worst month Jan at -7.8%, which was prior to the implementation of an integrated Stop strategy), 67.1% annualized returns (view publicly verified live results at:
www.collective2.com/go/tmg2).
If you prefer to trade futures (NQ) instead of the Qs, be sure to check out:
www/collective2.com/tmgfutures
Rainbow - Please understand, one reason I don't post on the other board anymore is that you are relentlessly pressed for your "call" so that it can then be derided or used by the sophomoric following there to play one-upsmanship, but other than posting my opinion on macro-economic considerations, it is not fair to our paying subscribers continually to give the live signal away ahead of time. You can view our actual trades 72 hours delayed at:
www.collective2.com/go/tmg2
In that regard, a month trial on our site would cost you exactly $10 ($75 with a $65 refund if you leave within the first month). For what it is worth, and you can read into this what you will, I went *very* Long in my personal accounts just before the close.
Irrespective of recent events, with regard to the entire EW approach, the emperor has no clothes. I'm not a paying member here, so if you would like more information, you may communicate with me *privately* at:
tmgsignal@comcast.net
Well, it seemed we got it yesterday, but it was only enough to flip the signal to Short. Between the Long exit and Short entry, up ~ 2.95% for the day...
The only numbers he has are imaginary ones.
Rainbow - Hope you found your way here...
Re: your question, our system works on the best statistical correlation to actual market trading history (using the NDX OHLC and NASDAQ breadth), and especially when the market gets severely overbought or oversold (as it is now), the signal will normally take the opposite position (see the iBox here for more info). However, the anticipated reversal may take a day or two (or more) to occur if there are still outside influences pushing the market beyond its historically optimal turning point into even more extreme conditions. The system is currently up ~ 70% (~1.5X) annualized (see our publicly and independently verified live trading record by following the C2 link in the iBox).
I don't/won't post on the other board anymore. The hubris there is a little too thick for my liking, and the board owner is one of the worst, and has to be reminded of his own rules re: mutual respect.
You may as well give up. You will never convince him, and he consistently demonstrates he was, is, and always will be a prick.
No, no torture is necessary. The record is there for all to see (if you care enough to go look), but Poker should understand (but then, maybe he doesn't and is just trying to score points) that comparing system returns absent the underlying risk/reward equation is like comparing apples to oranges. Our system has traded between 1X and 2X, and has had 8 straight months of gains, assuming we end Sep in the green. Just ask Steve (MVP) what can happen when you get too highly leveraged and the market has a rare alignment against you. Moreover, our trading record is maintained by an independent third party, not just by our own accounting (were those trades really made beforehand or not?). Remember when Hillary made $100K on a $5K stake in cattle futures because of fortutious backdating of trades by a "friendly" broker? Options are typically leveraged at ~ 10 times the underlying stock value, so not only can you gain a lot when you hit a lucky streak, but you can also lose your total account value a lot more quickly.
Sadly, my first impressions of the board host were right, and this seems to be simply a forum for seeing who can pee higher on the post, and we all know who the Big Dog is, don't we? He claims to welcome alternate views and opinions, but I don't really think that is the case, except as eventual avenues of attack or derision.
For all you adoring acolytes, just remember, he was wrong for a *long* time before he was right, so be careful about blissfully drinking the kool-aid that is being passed around here. No replies are necessary. Bu-bye...