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No Steede. No rain until next week. Party time today. It's Mardi Gras. Now, after midnight, no more party. Get down to business. And no rain Thursday or Friday either, Championship BarBQue Cookoff in Houston. So the mantra is, Go Rambler. Lead us up the primrose path. Take'r to double digits. Roll TECO!
PS: I suggest no one call the company tomorrow. You might get an answer like UH! What the heck? They're partying down there.
DTL, you may be right on. What TECO has done is shown they have oil in Belize on their initial lease concession with Princess Petroleum. And that oil shows a possible reserve of somewhere around 5,000,000 of recoverabel barrels according to the company. Now, that is from the first area to be drilled. If they expand out to their second area and hit oil and determine the reserves are even only about the same, then they have possible recoverable reserve of a total of 10,000,000 bbls. But what if they venture out on the third area and hit oil and find a similar amount. Now, you have a possible 15,000,000 bbls and with oil around $100 per bbl, you have a potential value of about $1,500,000,000. How does that sound for your company's potential value? And that doesn't even include Texas which could add even more. We should have some news this week or next week that could move the stock considerably higher. Hang on.
Chit, that brew you cooked up is working. Keep drinking that. You're coming up with good ideas.
Hey Baderbob, If you read my other post, it is probable that Reid had a nice breast of grilled crow when he was in Belize. But if the government allows TECO to continue with their drilling program, it pretty much sums up everything, doesn't it? And we should know something along those lines either this week, or next in my opinion. Another thing to consider is that Bull was down there when the company hit oil. Hasn't he indicated that he is still very much positive on the company? Do you think he would still be positive if they had not hit oil? Possibly, but probably not. So, put the pieces together and you see a picture of TECO moving forward. After all, they have also mentioned that they are acquiring more equipment to be shipped to Belize. Do you think they would be doing that if they weren't going to finish the first well and start on the second. And would they spend money on wireline equipment that could easily cost somewhere close to $100K if the didn't have something going? Hardly. So, the picture is being painted. People just have to watch the strokes as the painter progresses through completion. We're going to have some fun with this stock. Got your shares yet?
It's over two and a half weeks until the Belize elections. It may be we don't get much of anything out of Belize until after those elections and there is a little less anxiety with the government elected officials. The 10K is due out the end of March, so for sure we will have some information then as even the Belize government cannot prohibit that news from going out, whether they have approved it or not. But keep in the back of your mind, you want the government officials on the side of TECO. Then everyone, the company, Belize, and the TECO investors win. A win, win for sure.
Hey guys, in effect Andrew Reid is having to eat a little crow for TECO so the Belize government officials don't. Pretty clear picture. Now, with his statement, he has reaffirmed to the Belize government that TECO will comply with their media restrictions and allow not only their partner, Princess Petroleum, but also the Belize government officials to approve of any PR regarding TECO's operations in Belize. OK. We as investors can live with that. After all, when in Rome do as the Romans do, or do what they tell you to do, especially when you need them to be essentially a partner in the oil business, and you need their support of approval for your drilling and other operations.
If you call that news, you are really behind the times. Reid mentioned that in a PR a couple of months ago.
Rambler, best to you on your treatments. As for TECO, you may very well be on target. It would sure seem that if the MM's were just in the market to make some money on the short side, they could easily do that. On the other hand, if they even suspect something positive is going to be coming around the bend, then it does show in the pps movement over the last week or so. IE, not much up or down action. Pretty stable. Cool probably has a good analysis for us. I would think, and it's really a guess at this point, that TECO is still trying to get their permits approved by the Texas Railroad Commission for their Texas wells. Why it takes so long is anyone's guess, but everything is moving slower in the energy patch today since there are a lot of new regs being implemented regarding safety of the environment etc., for new wells and reworks as well. And we all recognize the situation in Belize. Plus, TECO has already stated they need a wireline system down there and they are acquiring that. And they will probably need a truck for that equipment, so they will need to acquire that. And other equipment that Steve mentioned that they need for completion, etc. So even when that is all acquired and assembled in one location and loaded and ready for trucking down to Belize is probably a few days away. Perhaps news next week we'll hear something, or even the end of the month.
You are dead on about the situation. However, in my opinion, the next flurry of activity will be the result of further testing and the revealing of the truth of the matter that TECO did indeed hit oil and they have begun to complete the well. Then I think there will be a lot more buying and it could come as a result of those who have been watching and waiting. When they can reconfirm oil and the probability that the reservoir is indeed as large, or larger than York initially mentioned, then the business world will know, and the stock should quickly move higher. In fact, if TECO can then move to the second target area and drill the first well in that region and hit oil, it will expound exponentially the pps. The third area with an oil hit will offer an opportunity for it to move substantially more toward a $1, perhaps more. If you want more shares, they are probably might cheap right now. When news hits, this stock is off to the races. It has already proved it can run 300% quickly. GLTA
So malbecman, you cannot actually produce anything other than what is already in the media from day one of the Belize government's comments. But you said they are going to investigate TECO. Again, Prove it! Show us the link to the document that the Belize sent to the SEC, or whatever document they sent for inquiry to the SEC. We are all waiting for you to produce an actual document, or copy thereof, or line to that specific doc. Surely you can perform and back up your words. Show us. We are all interested. Prove it.
Malbecman, prove your statement. Post some certification, and I don't mean what the Belize government has already mentioned, but a real certification dated at least as late as 2-9-2012 that will substantiate your statement. Copies of what was reported does not count. Real certification via way of formal filings, official complaints that have been filed, copies of letters to Treaty Energy, or anything else that was initiated after 2-9-2012. The ball is in your court.
To TECO shareholders. As you all know TECO is in the process of making good on their claim of oil in Belize. To that extent, the government of Belize enters the picture and wants to be involved with the dissemination of information regarding same. TECO got into an awkward situation and now is trying to become a part of the friendly process of making sure that the government is aware and acknowledges and approves of any information that TECO PR's in the future. In that vein, it might just be helpful if all TECO posters would refrain from further negative posts of the Belize government. After all, they can read these boards as well as we can. Let's be accomodating to our company management in their attemps to create goodwill from the company toward the Belize government associates. It could pay off much more positively in the near future. Thanks. JMO
Right on Braveheart. I just posted the other day about the Mississippi Lime. It's been overlooked for years, after it was drilled decades ago. So, what has changed? The technology available to geologists today is absoultely much greater than it was 20 years ago, and for sure 30-50 years ago. So many fields in Texas are being redrilled and new discoveries made wit the newer technology.
Has anyone from TECO in Belize considered getting a statement from a couple of the Belizeans who were around the well when they hit oil? Surely they could have had an opportunity to smell it and see it, perhaps even feel it. That way, there could be some direct conflicting statements of actual witnesses from Belize countrymen. It would seem like the Belize newspapers would jump at a chance to put out a story like that as most are of a liberal nature and are not that supportive of the PM. Just a thought.
Guys, it looks like it is another Energy Minister from 2007 who accepted the bribe. Did everyone check it out first? We need to be absolutely sure it was Cho, in every respect, before we state that as a fact. If it was Cho, then we need to really go after him somehow.
Capture this Belize Picture.
It is a country of about 320,000+ people. The majority live in urban areas. Keep in mind that the whole country then has less population than even a city the size of Tulsa, Oklahoma. Now, perhaps the number of people living in the rural areas is even 50,000. That means there are sometimes miles between small hamlets, and miles between ranches. TECO's drilling site is several hundred feet from the main road, and in fact they had to build the road to the well site. IE, there is not a lot of environmental issues for them at their location. Those who are concerned with the environment should be more concerned with the politicians who want the environmental activists votes and approval. Remember that those folks are generally liberal and that id also matches the makeup of the media, as in the states. It is that issue that TECO must prevail on. Somehow, the company needs a Belize writer who has credibility with the media and the Belize people who can write about how the revenue from oil operations in their country can move them from a third world country to a second tier country. Currently the country even imports their gasoline because they have no refinery. They have no gas generation plants for electricity from the gas that is coming from the oil fields. BNE has flared most of their gas. What a waste. But the opportunity remains for BNE, TECO and other oil companies if the public was made aware of just how much new infrastructure could be had with the tax revenue and royalties that a booming oil business would bring to the country. And hundreds of more jobs at a minimum. Plus the jobs for the new development that would then become a part of the country's makeover. Somehow, the word needs to get to the people.
Oil companies are moving into the northern Oklahoma area to redevelop the Mississippi Lime Formation, which also runs north into the very southern edges of Kansas.
Here's the important part. The formation consists of porous limestone and is rich in carbons. It had been previously developed somewhat many years ago with vertical drilling. Now, today, with the technology of horizontal drilling, oil companies are discovering that the region can, and even has already become a very productive region again.
Now, if you are wondering why I would research and then post this, here's the answer.
Reread the PR today and you will see that Steve York indicates that the company will probably drill out the initial well site area with horizontal wells. Why? Because as he also pointed out, the area is a porous limestone area. The fact is that the company did hit oil, and has determined that it is akin to the same type of formations as the Mississippi Lime region of northern Oklahoma, and also some regions of western or northwestern Texas.
Now, on another front, the meeting with TECO management did take place Wed. It appears that Mr. Cho never went to the well site to observe the drilling, nor did he even know how to test the results of the drilling as he has not been involved with that type of formation situation. As I posted earlier today, his picture indicates he may be mid 30's, so his experience is limited. Because there are elections coming this year, in fact about March 2012, all elected officials will want to make an impression on their constituents and particularly the environmentalists. Bottom line. They essentially shafted TECO today without real evidence and testing. TECO will recover as their program continues with their drilling programs in Belize and Texas. Shareholders will be rewarded. This situation is like getting sacked on first down at your twenty yard line right after the kickoff. But now the real game plan kicks in and we just need to make a first down. 15 yard Zout81 on second sound. Go.
Here's what Cho said to a reporter.
Brian Mossiah - Reporter
“What Mr. Cho said to me is that their business out here this afternoon is just to get samples from the technicians out here and they are going back to their lab and they will be running their assessment and then they will get back to the media. From my own investigations I was told that the only way that the technicians here will be able to put that kind of figure in terms of possibility of barrels that could be drawn from these particular wells here is if they were able to go to the extent of allowing the bore to flow for a little bit to get the type of samples they would need to be able to ascertain whether or not the quantity of oil found, the indicator that says that yes there is oil might be there and yes that is the indicator that the company has used to say yes we are successful in finding oil. But the extent to which there is oil, as I was told from my own investigation has to allow the bore to flow for a little bit before they are able to give you that. If Mr. Cho is saying they have drawn their own samples and will be going to the lab to ascertain or decipher for themselves what is the truth then it says to me that more or less they have gone through that process to allow some flow so that they can get the samples they need scientifically to be able to say that there is upwards of 5 to 6 million barrels can be had from these wells.”
Does everyone understand the political situation in Belize? There will be an election this year. The politicians need to cowtow to the environmentalists to keep from getting hammered by them in the media. The bottom line is that the media writers need to understand that the real true story needs to be researched and then printed so the people of Belize understand that TECO could represent $35,000,000 to $70,000,000 within a couple of years, in potential royalties and tax revenue, each year, or possibly even more. And the writer needs to explain that those funds can be allocated to improving roads, building schools of higher education, building trade schools and providing opportunities for Belize citizens to move out of being a third world country to at least a second tier. But that takes money, which can come from the country's oil production via a company's payments of royalties and taxes. And the sooner the government stands up to the environmentalists and considers the importance of moving up in the world, the better for the citizens overall. After all, oil exploration and production can be done without much of an environmental impact if companies follow the country's simple rules, which TECO is doing. It's extremely unfortunate that the government speaker stated he didn't have "conclusive evidence" when referencing TECO. This to me indicates he had no evidence and was simply his way of an out regarding his statement. Goes to show you that the Belize has the same troubling political times as the US.
Ask Bullmarket, he was there. He saw and discussed what he saw with the engineers. That should clear anything up. And as for the politician, it's obivious that he didn''t get his TECO shirt for Christmas, if you know what I mean, if in fact he even posted anything.
Superfine, it really doesn't matter what BNE is doing or has done. What matters is that TECO hit oil on their very first "wildcat well" in Belize. They have 9 more well permits, and they have stated they will try to get permits for the next two formations that they want to develop. They have also stated that these two formations are substantially larger than the one where they just discovered oil. Moreover, they only drilled to the first pay zone in the first well. The second well they drill, they expect to drill to 4000' and possibly discover one or two more pay (oil) zones. IF that happens, then the reserve number they have given could be extremly conservative. Moreover BNE only had 500,000 acres of leases, and TECO has 3,000,000. So the opportunity is not what is in front of one's nose, but rather just about as far as one can see. This stock could easily be .50 by the end of June and $1 by the end of the year. Do you have any other investments that has that kind of potential?
TECO, your New International Oil Co.
Yes sir. For those who kept the faith, congrats. For those who were continually negative and hopefully shorted the stock, well, I hope you lost big money. Now, going forward, keep in mind this is the first oil well for TECO. They have permits for 9 more wells. While they have now drilled at the actual site of TECO#2, which does have a different legal name, they will subsequently move to TECO#1 with the probability of hitting oil at about 99%, maybe better. Then they still have 8 more wells to drill. I have been posting that it would be nice to drill out the eight in this formation, but a friend who was a President of a billion dollar energy company said the best way to really push value is to drill a couple of wells in the other formations and prove them up. Then investors will see that potential value come to real value and the share price will reflect the potential of the whole. After discussion, I see his point and perhaps TECO management will do just that. But the odds just tilted in TECO's favor, in a huge way. While we don't know the volume of production, nor the API yet, even if the total production of the first ten well they will drill is only 1000 bbls per day, the stock value could easily top .25 to .30. Add that to what TECO management forcasts for Texas of 1000 bbls per day by the end of June, the second quarter end, then you would have an international oil company with at least 2000 bbls per day. That amounts to about $73,000,000 in annual revenue. (Remember end of June) If this is achieved, then you might determine that the company could have a cashflow of about $15,000,000 after all payments, taxes, splits, etc. With a multiple of 25, (which a new international oil company can easily command) you would get a market cap of about $375,000,000 which would project a stock pps of .50. Now you have a picture of what could happen within the next five months for TECO, your new International Oil Company. And folks, the first big piece of that picture is now founded. As the song says, "I can see clearly now," and it's a Green Spring. Now, as an investor, don't you just love it when a good business plan comes together, and you are a part of it?
A public company has four business days to report a material event that is of at least 10% value of their assets.
I like your view Oiljob. Sure would make for a Green Spring for years for TECO investors. What they have in the mill may take a little time, but in reality, could all happen in 2012, and 2013 could even surpass this year for potential pps upside opportunity. Luck to ya, and all.
Shizoku is right on target. A 50/50 split with Princess Petroleum after all expenses and taxes. However, on the additional 1,000,000 acres that TECO acquired in a separate concession, TECO owns 100% of the whole shebang.
Now, don't get giddy, but I have heard a report that the gravity for BNE oil is 48, and sells at a premium price of about $110+ per barrel. If TECO could hit that kind of oil, viola!, the money machine will begin to turn. And a Green Spring it will be.
Normally, a public company has four business days to report any significant activity that can provide an opportunity to either increase or decrease their assets or financial picture by 10% or more. Or something like that. At any rate, we should get some news at least by next week.
Well, do your part and buy some more shares while they're cheap.
Maybe TECO should be going after the MM's as well as posters who post lies about the company. That's an absolute stock manipulation game they are playing, and probably against any intent of the SEC regs. JMO
Certainly that number is possible. If you review BNE, they hit oil in the 4500' depth. However, they are situated about 2000' or so above the land level of the TECO concession. But the real deal is pretty simple. Just hit oil. As a matter of fact, TECO #1 and #2 are prime targets. If both hit, then the odds are pretty good for #3. If all three hit, you and the rest of us will be smiling from ear to ear, and the shorters will be bending over. Oh how I'm looking forward to that last scene.
I've heard 2000' or thereabouts. So it may be higher or lower, but probably not by much. Also, the rig operating is not a heavy duty rig that could go to 5000 ft or so. At least it doesn't look lik it. JMO, but I look for a TD either tomorrow or Firday. And if I were TECO, I would hold the news until the market closed Friday. Then release it and let everyone see what happens on Monday's opening. I would bet there would be a mad scramble to cover shorts all day Monday. If this were to play out this way, I would say we could see a 15,000,000 share day Monday. That in itself would bring attention to the stock through the fact it would be one of the most active, and possibly the biggest gainer. Get buckled in guys, this ride is going to be a lot of fun.
One thing is obvious in the picture on IHUB. There is a stack of cement bags that were absolutely not there even a few weeks ago. So this has to be a current picture. TECO had to comply with the Belize government on the type of cement to use downhole. And they only recently were able to find it, buy it, and get it transported down from Texas. Current picture, and TECO's drilling guys.
WOW! 23 minutes after the close there's a sale of 510,000 shares at .0365. The normal close was at .038. MM's are at it again. Just how does someone go about shooting them in the foot?
The question is, do you have all of the numbers for all of the possible names? You answered your own suspicious statement by mentioning you don't know where they got the 1000 bbls to sell. Try finding out. Call the company if you are such a good bloodhound. Or even the PR guy Mike.
Cool, certainly we appreciate your defining the workings of the mm's, however, with the potential of TECO news which may very well mention that they have indeed hit oil in Belize, what is your opinion of the actions the mm's will take then? Will TECO always remain in .04 to .05 land even if they hit one well, or what about two wells in Belize? What would you see if they not only hit the first two wells this quarter, but in fact were to hit a third well? I know this is asking for a lot of projections, but you seem to have a good handle with your experience of what might have to happen fot the pps to move higher? Thanks.
Sweet, sweet pictures and video. Just think, TECO could be reporting an oil hit Monday or Tuesday. Wonder what the shorts will do then?
Amen Oiljob. And the real catch in my opinion is that no one really knows when TECO will hit oil in Belize, the possible flow rate, and when they will PR it. But when that day comes, the shorters and negative guys are going to be in a real hurt. If posters recall, we had a few days where trading exceeded 5,000,000 shares. I would say we will double that if the PR comes out in the morning. Of course, if I were TECO management, I'd put it out about 2:30PM CST and watch the mad scramble before close, and the ensuing bid the next morning. And then what if they waited and did that on a Friday afternoon. Let the shorters wail and knash their teeth all weekend and try to figure out how they will cover. Yep, our time to play these guys is fast approaching, and they had better be prepared. GLTA
The tide will turn when TECO hits oil in Belize. (No, I don't mean the Alabama tide for you LSU guys.) The pps will take off and volume will triple or more when that news hits. Just watch. Then you won't have to worry too much about penny anny shorters and negative posters. And when TECO hits the first well, they have a second to hit. And when they hit the second well, they can get approval to move on to the third, and the fourth, etc. That's the freeway for this stock. It really appears that the bottom floor for the stock is about .035 or so, and the upside is dollar(s) land. Just watch.
Thanks dloggold. Now, my understanding is that about two years or so ago, BNE was producing about 5000 bbls daily. I have heard reports (which you and I know can be close or not) that BNE is still producing about 3500 bbls daily. That current number, if closely accurate, is not that great of decline from two or even three years ago. I understand the article, but let's consider the potential value. If in fact the 3500 number is accurate, that represents about $100,000,000 with some minor depletion factored in, and with oil at $100 per barrel. So let's deplete it down to about 300 bbls per day in even three years. By the second year, the potential revenue, again depleted, could be about $70,000,000. By the third year, the revenue, again depleted, could drop to about $30,000,000 and the fourth year it could conceivably drop to about $4,000,000. That's a total revenue stream, if it is even close to reality of what is actually happening, of about $204,000,000,000. This sure seems light, but then the question is why would BNE not have continued drilling to preserve their lease concessions all inclusive of their 500,000 acres? And the real question is how due diligence can be performed by TECO to insure that if there is the possibility and interest (currently there is only speculation), then how much can TECO justify paying for an acquisition? Pretty signigicant questions all in all? Our Co-CEO's will really want to have very current and accurate data, both past well history and current for production numbers, maintenance of each well, costs, etc. before moving forward is there is any real interest by both parties. Man, it sure is easy to speculate on a message board, isn't it? But, this potential situation is absolutely a serious and meaningful one to both TECO and BNE, in my opinion.
Where did you read that BNE has only three years of production left at the current rates. And what did you read their current rate is? Thanks for the answers, in advance.