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Anything could happen, but this really seems more like somebody was unhappy about how much information was being given out and simply decided to completely clamp down. That would be consistent with the relative silence ever since last summer.
I don't see any further validation of a buyout on a day to day basis, on the contrary it looks less likely every day.
Seems to say no buyout is coming. I think the best we can hope for is a partnership, that would be much more consistent with the new offering and the questions about a going concern. That would not matter if it was a buyout.
OK, fair enough, I have some hope for NEO, but it's starting to seem like nothing matters any more, any halfway good news is just met with more selling. I don't really think the hold being lifted is going to make much difference at this point. Agreed that if the NEO trial falters, then we are really hosed.
Why just over two months? If nothing happens within two months, then what?
Interesting because the 4/17 PR still listed Noelle as the contact person.
Yeah, because history tells us there's no reason to believe otherwise.
ADXS sure in the tank today, like most days. Pretty sure the communication blackout is just an extension of the quiet strategy that has been in place for nearly a year, and there is no buyout in progress, either that started a year ago or recently.
Hovacre, have there been many cases where a hold results in stopping a clinical trial completely? If so, what were the circumstances?
FBG, I'm not an accountant, but I think you have this backwards. They want to be a "going concern", which means there is little risk of liquidation in some time period, in this case typically 1 year or more.
I think you are talking about my view, but it's not based on the assumption that only NEO has value, it's based on the assumption that NEO is the only thing AMGN wanted, and that's why they made a deal for NEO. If AMGN has no interest in the other franchises, then there is no reason for them to pay $1.3B right now vs. $500M+ only if NEO is successful. You keep saying the other franchises are worth way more than $750M, but so far we have no evidence of that.
Sorry for the dose of reality, but there's just no incentive for AMGN to pay a net $750M (and really pay $1.3B right now, the net $750M is only because they might save paying more in the future) unless they want something more than NEO. They got a pretty good deal for NEO, why ruin it.
Probably the fact that it costs them $750M now vs. $500M plus other costs over the course of a few years, at least, and then it only costs $500M in milestones if NEO tests successfully all the way through. Why would they choose to pay $750M now instead, particularly if NEO is really all they want?
Yeah, I wish I had taken this advice 6+ months ago, then it might actually have been interesting to buy back in now. The funny thing is that your sarcastic advice would actually have been the better course of action.
I don't disagree with most of what you said, but I don't think there is anyone willing to pay $2B for ADXS right now, so it's a false choice. It's really hard for me to believe that ADXS would turn down such an offer right now, so I have to conclude there is no such offer, or anything even close.
Yep, not ruling it out, wish I had done it a long time ago.
I guess I'm trying to put these results in context and compare to other recent announcements by others in the immunotherapy field. The Stanford team stated that all the tumors were eliminated (actually they said eliminated all traces of cancer) in their mice testing, seems like the NEO results are not even close, would you agree?
Unfortunately the lid keeps moving lower. A year ago ADXS closed at 8.21, so yeah, there has been a lid on it for a while.
Hovacre, somehow I am underwhelmed by the results presented in the posters about NEO and HOT, what is your take on those results? To me does not seem what I expected for NEO based on the big deal with AMGN.
If I was short from something much higher I probably would have covered if the stock was below $2. As others have stated here, there is not much reward left to be short, but that doesn't mean those who were short necessarily believe it's going to go up now. I also don't think there's any particular trouble brewing, different than what we have seen for the last 1+ years, but I don't see anything big on the plus side in the next month or two, either.
OK, I'll bite, what's the big change right now? I'm certainly hoping the market might notice what's going on with NEO and maybe HOT, but there are still a lot of the same concerns as what we have seen over the last year. It would be different if all the financial concerns were in the rear view mirror, but that's not the case, the recent offering made some difference but not enough.
I'd have to agree with dafreaks at this point, every stock price up move has been met with a bigger down move for the last two years. This hasn't even been much of an up move, but I'm still kind of expecting the hammer to drop here soon. There's really not any compelling evidence that a buyout is about to happen, only a lot of things that if you look at them in that light may appear that way.
Exactly, business as usual, no buyout coming any time soon.
Don't be surprised if another merger Monday comes and goes with no announcement.
Wasn't very pretty, but ADXS was actually up for the week - doesn't happen all that often, so I'll take what I can get.
Ain't that the truth.
I'm more convinced there is no buyout coming out of this blackout. Just have to hope for some good pre-clinical results for NEO next week, and that the first NEO dose happens on schedule.
How would knowing the ownership information change your assessment of the current situation? Are you somehow going to conclude a buyout is imminent based on that, or decide that the NEO trial will fail? Personally I'm much more interested to see what is presented at the conference next week, which might actually be meaningful, unlike the ownership data.
Yep, the bottom pretty much fell out now.
Not exactly falling apart yet, but certainly nothing to write home about today.
Doesn't really seem like a reason for a complete blackout, why wouldn't they answer any completely unrelated questions?
Of course nobody has proven that yet. Nothing has been sold for nearly two years. I take that back, as fbg has pointed out a few times, they just sold 20% of the company for $2/share.
So are you saying they can cap the price at $1.79 by having a buy order at $1.78?
Wouldn't this someone have to have an order to sell at $1.79 to achieve that goal?
I thought it was intended to be at least somewhat humorous, but maybe I'm not being serious enough.
The NEO engine may finally be starting to warm up. Or at least enough to be more than noise on the radar.
It's no coincidence, the shorts covered because the share price went down to $1.50-1.75 after the offering, really no surprise a lot of them would cover at that price.
This short ransom theory is ridiculous - they needed the money, had to do an offering, end of story. This was no payoff to someone else.
It's information kind of akin to saying it rained last week, not exactly very timely.
Will mean nothing just like every other time the short report is released.