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SPORT19, I initially shared that same concern. But as I kept re-reading the PR, I could not come up with any logical reason for Medtronic to be making payments based upon completion of development milestones which are to be overseen by Medtronic and Titan together.
If they merely wanted to raid the technology, that's basically already done; they just need to write the last couple checks. They instead want oversight into the development process and achievement of certain goals. If Medtronic just wanted rights to the technology, well, they have it. The license NOW means they can try to incorporate some of Titan's technology into their own multi-port design as well as oversee the creation a single port platform of their own, and the exclusivity of the license means Titan can't go out and license it to anybody else as well. Don't you think ISRG would also love a camera wash system, two-camera deployment, and snake arms that don't need to cross over each other inside the patient? There is still huge value in our patent portfolio, and Medtronic has basically locked it in for themselves.
Why would Medtronic want to guide and provide oversight into the additional development process if it was only for Titan to go it alone and compete with Medtronic? Helping Titan would be like Medtronic shooting themselves in the foot by helping their eventual competitor. The oversight is to ensure the development process creates an end product which is to Medtronic's liking and meets their marketing objectives, taking a pre-determined place in their product lineup.
Other than maybe shorters and other folks out here bashing the company and spreading fear-mongering conspiracy theories which actually don't hold up to further scrutiny, I cannot explain the ridiculously low PPS at the moment. There appeared to be some sort of PPS suppression going on at the time of the MDT announcement in order for the closing to occur within the allotted percentage of PPS, but beyond that... As FlyBabyFly pointed out, the interest rate on borrowed shares is absurdly high, indicating the popularity of this stock for shorts - and the apparent continued profitability for them because they are willing to pay it.
Medtronic's oversight of Titan's development process can only be explained by the idea that Titan is developing it from here forward FOR Medtronic, otherwise Medtronic would not expend the resources to monitor the development process, the Board Meetings, etc. to help develop the competition. This is a done deal except the passage of time to achieve the milestones, and an eventual announcement.
As for why the buyout wasn't effective immediately, I can only conjecture, again based on logical inference and decades of medical device development experience, that it would be foolish for Medtronic to start from scratch on developing this single port platform when Titan already has intimate knowledge of it. They are a resource for Medtronic's development program. Another way to view it is that Titan is basically being kept whole for now as a develop contractor for Medtronic because of their knowledge and experience with this technology. It's a big time saver for MDT, saving them valuable months or even years if they tried to take over this program themselves. They want to get this, heck, ANYTHING, to market as soon as possible, and their Hugo program showed that product development isn't really their strong suit in this realm. Mr. Martha apparently knows this, and that is likely why he has announced the plans to go heavy on acquisitions.
It's just a waiting game; I try to ignore the games being played with the stock (which is very difficult to do) because I know eventually it will break free. I have repeatedly used the phrase "Excruciating Patience" when discussing Titan. Meanwhile, a nice PR here and there about development status, revised timelines, etc. would go a long way to support shareholder morale, especially if it also helped PPS.
I don't know for sure what your status is as a shareholder - shorting, holding, all in, all out... but you have a boatload of time and energy in this stock, this company, this message board... We haven't always seen eye to eye, but I still hope you are all in when it does finally take off.
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Closed at .805
Down another 5%
Has Medtronic commented on this deal with Titan? No
Go back and read the PR. I’ll post it for you...you can see why this is falling back....they wouldn’t need a license if they were buying the company.....
Titan Medical Announces Development and License Agreements With Medtronic and Senior Secured Loan
June 4, 2020, 7:30 AM EDT
TORONTO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Titan Medical Inc. (“Titan” or “Titan Medical”) (TSX: TMD) (Nasdaq: TMDI), a medical device company focused on the design and development of single-port robotic surgical technologies, announces that it has entered into a development and license agreement with Medtronic plc (“Medtronic”) (NYSE: MDT) to further the development of robotic assisted surgical technologies, as well as a separate license agreement with Medtronic in respect of certain intellectual property of Titan.
The development and license agreement provides for the development of robotic assisted surgical technologies for use by both Titan and Medtronic in their respective businesses. Titan will receive a series of payments totaling up to U.S. $31 million for Medtronic’s license to such technologies, as technology milestones are completed and verified. A steering committee comprised of representatives from Titan and Medtronic will be established to provide oversight regarding the work toward achievement of the milestones.
ShortsRClowns, I'll point out one that nobody here seems to be considering...
Mr. Martha has spoken at length publicly about his focus on acquisitions during his tenure at the top of Medtronic. If he screws over the first company he deals with, his legacy of acquisitions will dry up like a prune because nobody would want to follow.
I replied to your message because it's better than replying to a Total Tool!
If it takes another 8 years, I will be happy and retire.
If it happens in two or less, I will be happy and retire.
If it never happens, I will be happy and eventually retire.
Some people wander through life looking for the next thing to get pissed off about, and Titan has certainly given a lot of those folks exactly what they were looking for. Others prefer to find happiness wherever the hell we are. Titan has also provided a number of little victories over the years. I can say I'm down XX% in this investment, or I can say I've tripled my value this month alone.
If trying to belittle other people makes you happy, then... your choice. If I'm your target because you feel the need to vent, well then... your choice. But when this thing finally comes around, I'll still gladly celebrate with you.
Enjoy the weekend!
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You're not here for today, next week, or next month?
You're here for 18-24 months from now.
Yet you've been here for that for the last how many years now?
Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on you. Fool me 100 times, shame on.....me again?
I've managed to pick up 49,166 more shares this week, nearly doubling my position and dropping my cost average by over 40%. I haven't sold a single share since I began accumulating this stock years ago. Not selling means not losing. You're only a loser if you sold for a loss, and even if one sells at a loss for the tax write-off, the write-off saves only a fraction of the loss, so the net is still a loss.
To be clear and correct - I have been buying all week and not losing a penny because I haven't sold anything.
Feel free to save the Congratulations for 18 to 24 months from now. That is why I'm still here; not for today or next week or next month, even if it doubles or triples by next month. I'm not here for a mere double or triple.
Meanwhile, feel free to have a good weekend!
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You’ve been buying all week and losing all week...
Congratulations?
Well, that is a 4 year old publication...
I think they typically say "may be" with regard to PFIC status, possibly because it doesn't apply to Canadian investors or some other legal reason. I'm just hoping it gets tossed out the window in the event of a buyout.
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Yes. Titan is a PFIC.
https://titanmedicalinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/PFIC-Annual-Statement.pdf
For the more knowledgeable investors out there, or the most willing researchers...
Titan stock reportedly carries PFIC status, to the best of our knowledge (Passive Foreign Investment Crap). If we should happen to get bought out in an all stock deal, do the PFIC rules go out the window? Or do we enter a tax wormhole into another dimension (queue the Twilight Zone theme music...)
That's the one I looked at. Look at "Previously Held"... All under the Intuitive entry. What I find interesting is the apparent overlap in 2004 with Ethicon and Intuitive, unless the 1/2004 is a type and he meant 10/2004 (just my guess).
Regional Vice President
Company Name
Intuitive
Dates Employed Sep 2013 – Apr 2015
Employment Duration 1 yr 8 mos
Location Tampa/St. Petersburg, Florida Area
Previously Held: Regional VP, VP of Key Accounts, and Area Sales Director | 01/2004 – 10/2014
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66Mustang....
some articles are different than others.Can't say who's are correct.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/chadzaring
I just noticed that before his Mazor job, Mr. Zaring spent over 11 years at Intuitive! Worked his way up to VP level while there.
Merely an observation.
This is excellent! MR. Brar and his award-winning patent portfolio have always been a huge bright spot in my view of Titan; even when things looked particularly bad, I always felt the patent portfolio carried a huge portion of the company's value (and I still feel that way). Hopefully this locks him in, so to speak!
On the down side, I don't know if enough people feel this way, so this PR might not have a huge impact on PPS today. But it SHOULD!
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Titan Medical Promotes Globally Recognized Intellectual Property Strategy Leader to Vice President and General Counsel
Not to mention the Steering Committee is half Titan and half MDT.
Neither side will allow bad or stupid stuff at this point.
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Last post on this ridiculous subject....
You think with them having MDT as a partner working on a new state of the art robot with the brightest scientist and developers money can buy,along with 40 million cash on hand,little to no debt,a Steering Committee and your partner MDT just inked a 280 million dollar loan on May 12,2020 that we are up for another R/S??????
Man really?....Last response from me on this. I suggest you put the past behind you comparing TMDI to TRXC situation. My last trade on them was 5.56 if you want the screenshot.....TMDI is in great shape. This last weeks pps is just what the big boys want. Fear, uncertainty and Doubt. Known as FUD!!
Hope you turn the page soon as you could be of some help from what I have read.Don't let the knowledge go to waste. Make back your losses. 30 day wash....
Sweet!
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Titan Medical Reports Full Compliance with Nasdaq Listing Criteria
Source: Business Wire
Titan Medical Inc. (“Titan” or the “Company”) (TSX: TMD) (Nasdaq: TMDI), a medical device company focused on the design and development of single-port robotic surgical technologies, announces that on June 18, 2020, The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) staff determined that the Company has cured the Market Value of Listed Securities and bid price deficiencies and has regained full compliance with all applicable criteria for continued listing and trading on The Nasdaq Capital Market. Accordingly, the Nasdaq Hearings Panel scheduled for July 16, 2020 has been cancelled.
For accuracy... latest presentation on Titan web site says 49 patents issues; 86 pending!
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Roll, great DD on your part. No matter what there are too many dots being connected to just be coincidences. Also, you noted 40 patents and 80 pending. Many of these are potentially game changing and probably highly sought after. I can only imagine what TMDI technology MDT is salivating over to use to make HUGO better. THESE PATENTS ALONE makes TMDI valuable and my position profitable. I don't see a lot of risk near term, not until human trials, and believe we are near the floor so not too worried, just impatient:) I AM NOT SELLING!
The biggest issue with Medtronic's buyout of Digital Surgery is they are London-based. All their work has to be translated from British to English!
In their defence, this should be an easy task!
Do we have to licence their technology for our development programme? When they get back from the theatre, about 100 metres down the carriageway?
Rollgard, we are grateful for your diligence and willingness to share! Please feel free to continue!
I unfortunately expect work to drag me away from the computer for good chunks of the day, but I'll be checking in when I can. By all rights, this should be a great day for our PPS, but historically good news hasn't always had the desired effect. Fingers remain crossed!
So this is even more strange...
Per your link, the Hugo trademark for Medtronic was abandoned Sept. 30, 2019. They debuted Hugo on Sept. 24, 2019, less than a week earlier. Was the reception for their 6-pod floor-hogging system so poor that they had to change course immediately?
They have not mentioned the abandonment to the press, as they have continued to assume Medtronic is still moving forward on it despite very little indication from Medtronic that this is true.
From Feb 13, 2020:
https://www.medtechdive.com/news/medtronic-buy-digital-surgery-ai-hugo-robot/572259/
Medtronics only comment on the Digital Surgery acquisition is very vague, with no Hugo reference. The author presumes a ton about Hugo but there's more "it seems" and "could be" statements by the author. After all, Medtronic had given no public indication of Hugo's status since a week before the trademark was abandoned! Until the article below about the delays, after other prior delays.
And from a month ago:
https://www.medtechdive.com/news/medtronic-earnings-call-coronavirus-updates/578498/
This makes it sound like they may still be trying to get something to market; pre-COVID estimates were to get to market in fall of 2022! Now, with delays... who knows!
A look at Titan's MD&A from late last year shows their original plan was to submit 510(K) app in Q4 2019, and Plan and Prep for commercialization in Q2 2020. The subsequent notes says they believe the financial situation would push their schedule out by appx. 18 months. So we were WAY ahead of Hugo by any reasonable measure, and even with delays would still be well ahead. Now if Medtronic is integrating Titan tech into their project, that pushed things out even further. However, we might also be pursuing additional engineering changes at the behest of their new overlord! Again, who knows...
And from the beginning of the same article, we have Mr. Martha stating that he plans to be more aggressive with tuck-in acquisitions! I looked that up (Investopedia): " A tuck-in acquisition involves a larger company completely absorbing another, usually smaller, company and completely integrating it into the acquirer's platform. ... Tuck-in acquisitions are usually executed in order to grow the acquiring company's market share or resource base." Sounds like just what I want to see at this point!
Please keep digging and keep sharing!
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Thanks for your comment,as I am still digging up more tidbits.Teamwork is what we need and more of it.
For your dd...back after while...still reading.
Thanks Roll
https://trademarks.justia.com/869/27/hugo-86927387.html
Going solo would require more and more funding, presumably via more and more dilution. So I hope they don't! I'm getting ready for this ride to be over soon. Two years sounds about right to me; sooner is better.
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Thanks. Is it even possible for TMDI to go 'solo'? They just don't have the means to do it post FDA correct?
Rollgard, nice find buried in here! I'll elaborate on the tidbit I am referencing, since it caused me to do a little more digging.
Sorry for the extended rant but I am convincing myself of something as I write this, so please bear with me (if you have a couple minutes...)
First, my two cents... MDT may have abandoned HUGO because the name looked too much like HUGE, like the footprint of that system!
I just clipped this off MDT's web site:
"The Medtronic robotic-assisted surgery (RAS) system is an investigational device currently in development. It is not available for sale or human use and its safety and effectiveness have not been established. The RAS system is not cleared or approved in the U.S., EU, or any other market. Features and technology of future RAS systems may vary. Access to the RAS system is contingent upon regulatory approval or clearance. Approval or clearance timelines are subject to the regulatory process of individual countries and regions and are not guaranteed."
No mention of HUGO.
I searched the entire MDT web site for HUGO. 5 links appears; the first was about 2017 hurricane relief in Puerto Rico; they mentioned Hurricane Hugo. The other four links make no reference to HUGO; I'm guessing they once did but those articles were recently stripped clean of HUGO and the links only showed up because the HTML code contained the edits where HUGO references were deleted.
So, what do we now know???
We know that it looks like MDT's former surgical robotic program's featured performed has been forcefully retired and the carcass seems to have been buried deep, as if it was an embarrassment in retrospect - despite having had a budget that other large companies envy.
We know that MDT has entered into some form of business and/or license agreement with Titan, who owns the rights to the Anti-HUGO, a sleek, capable unit that lacked the funding to cross the finish line without financial help.
It's like the old "Hey, you got peanut butter on my chocolate!" commercials. Our tech and their money, a match made in heaven and everybody wins.
Until your post about Mr. Zaring, I didn't realize the extent to which they were killing HUGO; I just assumed they would incorporate some of Titan's licensed tech into the HUGO platform to have big-scale and small-scale offerings. I didn't realize it was going away; but it appears to be gone without a trace.
So then there are questions like "Why don't they just buy us outright?" Look at the Mazor deal. Hand them some cash to fully de-risk the platform, then scoop in a most Adrock-like fashion! Because nobody wants to approve a multi-billion dollar deal with any residual risk. Mr. Zaring was sent in for preliminary inspection; he gives it a green light; we get funding (more on this in a moment); we cross the finish line and get absorbed like Mazor - but hopefully for a sum more commensurate with our system's capabilities!
As for the funding... They need to get something in return, so how about licensing on some of our tech... Maybe to create a sister product line, or improve some other of their offerings with Titan tech. Or maybe to begin ramping up some internal marketing materials, or get a jump start on something they know is pretty much in the bag. But they had to get something for their money, and the milestones? Why should Medtronic care about Titan meeting milestones unless the end game is acquisition? I don't have an answer for that, other than the end game MUST be acquisition.
I had thought this would be the likely scenario (acquisition) but with still a chance Titan stays solo - and competes with Medtronic?? I just don't see that as being a possibility anymore with the disappearance of our bloated friend HUGO.
One last thing... can you share a link to the trademark office page where it show's the abandonment of HUGO? That would make it absolute in my mind!
Another consideration...
"Medtronic completed a $1.7 billion purchase of Mazor Robotics in December 2018. A month later, the company launched its Mazor X Stealth robotic-assisted spinal surgical platform in the U.S. In September 2019, Medtronic unveiled its new Hugo system that is set to rival the da Vinci SP."
US launch was a month after acquisition. If they are following the same model/timeline, then the regulatory path will likely dictate buyout schedule. It's Mr. Jensen's turn at the wheel!
No grave for SPORT19. He is alive and well, posting solo on his Protokinetix iHub page after a brief vacation, bashing their management for dumping.
I would prefer for his sake if he were to drop in here and say hello, and maybe share in some of the more positive happenings for Titan. After the ride we have been on (and he was here well before I joined) he deserves a little positivity.
I'm certainly not begging anyone, but SPORT19, feel free to drop in. We have certainly had our differences in the past, but your diligent research and tenacity would certainly be welcomed here while there is good news floating around. Flybabyfly can't be doing ALL the research on our behalf!
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Great post taco. Sport19 must be rolling in his grave ??
Golly, this almost sounds like a small showing of respect for Mr. McNally! Nice to see from someone other than me (I have publicly referred to him only as Mr. McNally as far as I can recall, while amongst like-minded friends and when addressing him personally I typically use the more casual moniker "David").
My two greatest disappointments in this investment have been the oft-delayed timelines (postponing my potential retirement by a few years) and the heavy dilution - I once owned 0.15% of the stock but I'm around half of that now and unable to keep up with dilution.
On the other hand, I believe I maintained respect for the people in the organization who persevered in the face of ongoing financial difficulties (well, honestly, I was concerned the Rock might not have been performing optimally but I don't fully know the depths of the challenges he has faced), and I maintained faith that the tech would ultimately prove itself and at least turn this investment profitable if not downright lucrative.
To those of you who also maintained some level of belief in the company and its team, thank you for riding along in good faith. To the folks who didn't deal as well with the interim disappointments, I hope to see you all smiling with us at the finish line!
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"...As for McNally and his team - they built an entire new single port surgical robotic platform in 2 years. They have developed IP that is incredible where you have the largest medical device company in the world asking them to utilize it in their own system and also teach them how to build a surgical robotic platform."
Yeah, but all I could scrape up at the time bought me 330 shares (pre-3-for-1 split). I got out mostly around $400 and $500/share and that funded the majority of my Titan stock. But it will certainly be a interesting story if my initial $3900 investment turns into millions! Fingers crossed...
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You got into ISRG at $11.65? I am basically speechless. Jesus!
OR Nurse, this (small platform size) has been one of my favorite Titan attributes since I first invested here. I followed Titan in the Amadeus days but I never thought it brought any competitive advantages to the (OR) table. I have been publicly cruel to both Trixie and Medtronic for offering or designing systems with about a half dozen monolithic obstacles, most of which are cluttering the access paths to the patient, and all of which need to be cleaned, moved, serviced, etc. with regularity.
I dove into ISRG stock around 2003 at $11.65/share because my wife assessed it as a sound platform (she was first nurse in this state to be trained on it) and more so because of prostatectomies - the idea of men having this procedure and maintaining certain functionality seemed promising, because basically, men like sex and would strongly prefer to keep having it. Huge competitive advantage over traditional prostatectomy. The downsides of huge cost, massive size, surgeon comfort, etc. were all completely acceptable 20 years ago because there was no alternative and introducing a new, unrefined technology usually has some drawbacks which can easily be overlooked because of the novel (at the time) advantages it offered.
Not until Titan's single port offering have I seen anything that offers true competitive advantages in this area.
Cost - Check.
Virtually scarless - Check.
Small footprint/patient access during procedure - Check.
Surgeon's face not stuck in a viewport - Check.
Superior range of end effector movement - Check.
Now add to the list things like award winning patent portfolio (Thank you Mr. Brar!), a second camera as a backup, patented camera cleaning (for future use), single-use effectors (new = not dull), etc... And to your point, maneuverability with less chance of expensive damage, more icing on the cake.
We are all in for a fun ride when this thing finally launches!
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First image I saw that hit home Jabberwocky was that monstrosity at the top of the page. I think I made a comment a year or so ago. The DaVinci is like having an elephant in your OR room.
Can you imagine someone trying to gently steer and move this monstrosity out of an operating room and trying to store it safely somewhere?(that does not exist in present day operating room areas). Oops! Sorry boss. I hit one of the robotic arms on the door while trying to move it. It's okay, it will only cost $75,000 to fix it. And,oh, by the way, you are fired.
Sorry for the long commentary but when I see the smaller footprint of the Titan, it just gives me a rosy feeling inside. Smaller footprint, easier to maneuver and a lower cost.
Unless NASDAQ blows up in our faces next week, we should have nothing but good news ahead. That being said, not all good news will get a PR. Last week it was observed that they hired a Director of Research and Development for the new facility in the Carolinas. No PR, no official news, just a keen observation by a diligent shareholder via LinkedIn. But to me, that is newsworthy - it authenticates any claims about their desire to ramp up staffing, especially in light of concerns three weeks ago that their numerous job postings were a joke. No joke, as we now see, but their history of very limited communications was casting aspersions on their credibility. I'd love to see them crank up the PR machine! It may be the only way to defeat the ever-present shorters and kick this investment into high gear!
As for current price suppression, I don't know if data will ultimately show we are under attack by shorters, or merely market makers keeping PPS in a lower range while they try to stock up (no pun intended) in preparation for the real run-up. Assuming we stay over a dollar today, we have what, 3 more days to shake the NASDAQ threat? That should bring both PPS and volume high enough to pull us away from short territory for a while, and even as we settle at difference subsequent plateaus, any PR should then be able to move the needle substantially - because all news moving forward is likely to be very substantial! Maybe a PR on our listing status will come out at COB Wednesday and will launch us next week... Fingers crossed!
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Will be interesting to see next week after TMDI is compliant with Nasdaq if we get a flush lower by the shorts. Definitely hoping that is not the case as my powder is running very low. It would be great if they have a plan to possibly address this scenario with a series of positive PR releases.
The Tree Fort is a Mission from God?
I know that several of them have been our saviors from the information standpoint!
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Flenderson is on a “ mission from god “
Element - Rinse and Repeat with more experience, lessons learned, and a much higher value proposition!
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At 66Mustang: RINSE & REPEAT!?
For those of you who think ZEVEX sounds familiar... That was Mr. McNally's company (President and CEO) from 1986 until after it was sold to MOOG.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-mcnally-a282b39/
The two of them (Mr. McNally and Mr. McStotts) have apparently done this before, successfully.
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He worked for ZEVEX International, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZVXI) which was eventually purchased by Moog Inc. (NYSE: MOG.A and MOG.B). Closing of acquisition March 16, 2007.
https://www.moog.com/
https://www.moog.com/markets/medical-oem.html
I found it more interesting to compare where we are to where Mazor/MDT were a couple years prior, when their deal was first announced. Definitely see some similarities, but adapted to our situation, our PPS and OS, etc. This just might be the timeline we will also be looking at.
https://investors.mazorrobotics.com/press-releases?item=128
https://investors.mazorrobotics.com/press-releases?item=133
https://investors.mazorrobotics.com/press-releases?item=158
https://investors.mazorrobotics.com/press-releases?item=149
https://investors.mazorrobotics.com/press-releases?item=151
https://investors.mazorrobotics.com/press-releases?item=170
https://investors.mazorrobotics.com/2018-11-19-Mazor-Robotics-Shareholders-Approve-Merger-Agreement-With-Medtronic
This last one is the last post under the old Mazorrobotics web site; after that... they were Medtronic!
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We probably still have a bumpy road ahead but if we can get FDA approval, the possibilities are exciting...
'Medtronic plc (NYSE: MDT) and Mazor Robotics (NASDAQ: MZOR) announced the companies have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Medtronic will acquire all outstanding ordinary shares of Mazor for $58.50 per American Depository Share, or $29.25 (104.80 ILS) per ordinary share, in cash, for a total of approximately $1.64 billion, or $1.34 billion net of Medtronic's existing stake in Mazor and cash acquired.'
If Medtronic took the equity position, that is good news - it absolutely locks in the theory that a buyout is forthcoming, which should launch our share price immediately thereafter.
If someone else took the equity position, they own about 20% of the voting shares and will be voting to optimize their value, which also optimizes our ultimate value.
I'm good with it either way!
If BigT's assertion is correct (sounds logical) that yesterday's PPS suppression is in order to close the deal today without violating the discounting guidelines, then we should see an extremely quick return to yesterday's highs and beyond.
In light of ongoing news like they are already filling positions for the NC facility (e.g. new Director of Research Development per LinkedIn; with a nod to our old pal FlyBabyFly for sending me that tip!), it is full steam ahead. And obviously worth searching LinkedIn for more of these types of updates!
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18mm should close today,
If Medtronic took an equity position this is GONE!!
Jayhawk, if you haven't been here for a bit... Just go back to last week. Look at PR's since Thursday when they announced the deal with Medtronic! Read that and everything newer! Then pick which Scotch you want to celebrate with tonight.
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Jayhawk913 Tuesday, 06/09/20 01:54:35 PM
Re: None 0
Post #107079 of 107080
Time to sell?
Long here. Haven't paid attention for months.
Figured it was over.
Time to sell or hold. What is the forcast?
Trixie signed a lease agreement for one Senhance system for some hospital in Chicago. Maybe that one sale means they will meet last year's revenue??? They've historically been pretty good at spin, making good news sound great and making bad news sound acceptable - Polishing a turd, as we called it in the service. But PPS up 35% yesterday? There must be something else driving it from the analyst or speculation side - I see articles about hedge funds but they don't seem to be doing anything substantial with Trixie.
They sold three Senhance systems last year with $8.5M in total revenue for 2019. They sold 15 systems in 2018. Maybe they already saturated their piece of the market?
Medtronic investor conference going on live right now. Free to watch. Said they will discuss robotics in a couple minutes.
Now... Let's Rock!
(No, not the Randall Rock... I mean Rock'n'Roll!)
I don't think today's "discount" will affect the end buyout price in a meaningful way. Mr. McNally is fully aware that he is beholden to ALL shareholders, not just the owners of the 20-25% of shares bought today. He knows what the company is worth and what the patent portfolio is worth. Surely better than any of us by now.
I have elsewhere posited that nobody could put together an $18M deal in one day. The Medtronic deal was announced on Thursday. The fund raising for the exact needed amount was announced before trading opened this morning. To put together that sort of deal, I believe (my opinion, of course) that it takes more than a passing Friday to say "Hey, you need $18M and I have exactly that! Let's do a deal". Then clear regulatory hurdles, make funds available, contracts and lawyers who always take care of business in less than one 8 hour work day. Sorry, I'm not convinced it could be anything other than a Medtronic affiliate or subsidiary. Again, just my opinion; feel free to devise your own opinion.
Bear in mind Medtronic is also free now to use some portion of the licensed patent portfolio separate from Titan's development trajectory. Each will be just another piece of their offerings as they weaponize to do battle with the reigning king of robotic surgery. It's nice that they chose to use our weapons... or maybe they had no other choice. Our portfolio was likely the only pathway to single port competition; otherwise our patents and ISRG's combined may prevent any additional competition in that space for several years to come. Just ask JnJ, Stryker, etc. - any or all of whom could become bidding war competitors in a year or so!
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It tells me they legitimately want a piece of this company if all goes well through the remainder of development. It also tells me they would have acquired a stake in Titan to help fend off bidding competitors. The final price tag will be a bit lower however since this would mean they've acquired a partial stake in the company at a deep discount compared to what it might be in a year or so.
And if we keep going in this direction, no problem!
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7 trading days left for Nasdaq compliance.
Hey, anyone know where SPORT19 has been hiding? I know he and I haven't always seen eye to eye but he's been on this ride with the rest of us for years - longer then me if you include his SurgicalTechnician days. He has certainly paid his dues; one would think he should be around to enjoy the lighter-hearted banter as our dark clouds have made way for much sunnier days!
I fuly agree. But we also need to keep in mind what deal is more like our situation. Mazor had a robot, much more limited scope and application that Titan's. Aurys Medical had a robot, much more limited in scope and application than Titan's. Mazor went for about $1.7B. Aurys went for $5.75B with milestones to be met, but $3.4B up front. That was only a year after Mazor, and 2 to 3.5 times the price for technology that really probably had similar value to each other.
Now start looking at the annual revenues generated by lung biopsies or certain spine surgeries, and compare to annual revenues for general abdominal surgery. Some ballpark numbers from various sources around the web:
70,000 bronchioscopies with biospy, avg. $3700 ea, $277M/yr revenue.
1.6M spine procedures (I didn't research how limited the Mazor equipment was or what percentage of spine procedures can be performed with it)at $14k/ea avg. = $22B/yr revenue.
5M Laparoscopic surgeries/yr at $13k ea = $66B/year.
Obviously JnJ wanted Aurys for more than lung biopsies!
The point is that the value of our end market is so much larger than for these prior buyout deals. There should be a premium placed on market potential.
There should also be a premium placed on time. Spine is a much larger market than lung biopsy but Aurys went for 3.5x what Mazor sold for, only a year later. If we don't close this for another year or two, value should just keep going up with time.
That being said, one could envision an ultimate buyout price in the $12-$20B range on the higher end, or the mid-range you speak of should really be more in the $6 to $10B range.
And if there's any other interested parties, the sky's the limit! (But I personally don't think the sky is over $20B... even if other math substantiates that potential. I'd be really happy with $5B!)
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Great news that Medtronic is involved and TMDI's outlook has improved. I hope we get to a $5 B buyout at some point but there are a lot of other possible conclusions to our investment journey with TMDI that are less fruitful. A balance of scenario discussions would allow for a better understanding of what we may be in for. I think we end up somewhere in the middle of the extreme negative and positive sentiment but one never knows until the ink dries.
I would assume so. I suspect the $18M should hold them over for a few weeks if needed, but another $9 waiting in the wings is nice.
What is it, like 90 days before the filing goes public showing who bought that much of a public company's stock?
It stands to reason that whoever funded this raise is in cahoots with Medtronic in some way, other wise the timing would be too suspicious - it takes longer than a couple days to coordinate an $18M stock deal, and before the Medtronic announcement, who would have done that??
I did joke this morning at how messy this situation could get if the $18M actually came from JnJ or ISRG! Maybe trying to dig their hooks in before Medtronic runs away with our technology - for a price, of course. Imagine the bidding war if one of those two just bought 25% of Titan and Medtronic is trying to close the deal!
Fun times! For a pleasant change...
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Hey66. They just got 18 mill. If this offering was bought by Medtronic or a shell company can they get another 9 mil right away from the warrants that are attached. At $1 ? Thanks buddy.
$18M raise at market! No major give-away discounts! Proof that they can raise funds and hold up their financial obligations with the Medtronic deal!
Sweet!
Good morning all, and welcome to week two of A New Day for Titan! So to speak, of course.
A few thoughts and observations as things have been playing out...
NASDAQ is nice to have, but has very little to do with the trajectory of Titan based on recent announcements. I hope we are two weeks away from the threat of de-listing but I also think there is way too much emphasis on it. If it supposedly opens doors to new forms of financing, then why has it not yet worked? I am not hugely concerned with de-listing except that an announcement of de-listing will ding our share price (temporarily) despite everything else going on in the background.
As for Medtronic's plans, I have no personal knowledge or insight, but a couple guesses. First, Hugo does not appear to be a substantial improvement on Trixie's Senhance system, which still isn't making any real inroads into the marketplace. Maybe they want Titan's patents to make Hugo better - better hand controls, patented camera wash system, maybe even snake arms deployed through their numerous separate ports. Who knows... Alternately they might be looking to develop Enos Plus - Titan's current robot with a third arm to be deployed through the single port. Maybe some other variation, like Dual port - the single port two-armed or three-armed Enos plus a side extension for a third robotically controlled arm in place of a manually operated trochar. Whatever the case,my take from what I have read is that Titan will continue on their existing path while Medtronic does some additional or alternate development work with their licensed patents. My guess is that once FDA approval is either in sight or achieved, the buyout happens and Medtronic will eventually offer two or three models.
If a buyout is largely a stock deal and we end up owning shares of MDT, that's fine with me because their future growth should be substantial with competitive robotic offerings - the stability of Medtronic with the growth potential of a startup business!
I do like the little history lessons popping up here lately (e.g. DeviceRep's re-post and other related notes). Who knows how long Medtronic has been part of this equation, or even which management team put it together! It could serve to explain a few other burning questions.
One of those questions is "Why won't management buy shares on the open market?" It would seem that we might now know the answer. If they have been coordinating with Medtronic all along, they couldn't buy with their insider information. And if there is still more to the story which they haven't announced publicly, then they still hold insider information which prevents them from buying.
THEREFORE... If they do not buy shares for themselves, it most likely means that there is more going on behind the scenes, most likely with Medtronic, and that we are in for a really fun ride upward! If they buy shares now, it might be time for me to sell mine because that would mean they are left to pure speculation and not buying based on any specific knowledge of Titan's future.
Happy Monday to all, and Go Titan!
Future BOD might be some Medt folk moving in... they are paying enough to merit a seat or two, not just observer. But Mr. McNally and Mr. Barker need to ensure they still hold majority control of the BOD, I assume...