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Yes I know. I believe that will change some this month and act more balanced.
No didn't put you on ignore. There wouldn't be any reason for me to.
The market might be riding on air as you say. I wouldn't disagree with that but gold miners are certainly riding on air too. They have bad fundamentals and are very over-priced. It is just the facts. They are over-due for a strong correction.
Again, worst part of the jobs numbers was the mining sector. Miners are coming down and the reasons are bountiful.
O stop playing that game. You know darn well over the past few years that when jobs reports are seen to be "too good" it gets people worried about rate hikes and so equities sell off. It is the market's way of throwing a tantrum because they fear the punch bowl will be taken away. Been going on for years now.
Mining was the worst part of the jobs report. Apparently miners don't seem to think their sector is looking too great. Miners have bad fundamentals. I have been saying this for awhile.
If you have not read the jobs report. Good report. 2 negatives, manufacturing sector and mining sector. Overall good jobs number and even better wage growth which is even more important.
That was a pretty darn good jobs report. Gold should get smashed. Even wage growth was pretty good.
Re-entered right after report at $3.29
The 2.98s I got in pre-market I sold for 20 cents a share gain. Chillin now until jobs report tomorrow. There will be big action on that report tomorrow. I believe the jobs report will be pretty decent and help DUST but I sold before it comes out because I'm chicken :)
Naw, actually 20 cents a share gain was good money so I took it but I am certainly not done with DUST yet overall.
After selling yesterday I am sitting on the sidelines until the jobs report tomorrow.
I think the report will be pretty decent which would help DUST. Other data shows consumer confidence up and consumer spending up. This morning weekly jobless claims up-ticked a little. That doesn't really show much of anything though. The jobs number tomorrow will be a huge factor.
I took a nibble pre-market and have 1000 shares DUST at 2.98. That is all I will hold before the report and I might even flip those shares today.
Other then that I will be ready with cash in the aftermath of the jobs report.
lol, yea that was something else. I almost never say anything about stuff like that because I just never let it bother me knowing all things come to balance eventually.
I'm still doing double takes right now though. In the last two days I saw gold go from 1223 just as Yellen started to talk yesterday and watched gold go up and close at 1242. GDX went from 19.50ish and closed at 20.54. Then today gold drops all the way back down and closes at 1225 almost taking out all gains from yesterday except for two bucks and GDX closes at 20.23
So basically gold in the last two days is up 2 bucks and GDX went from 19.50ish to 20.23. DUST went from 3.55ish (just before Yellen talked) and down to 3.11 and all that happened was basically sideways movement for gold.
I've seen this kind of stuff before man, I know how it ends. All I am doing right now is laughing and will continue to buy/trade DUST/JDST.
Not sweating it man, the helium balloon, AKA gold miners, with over-bought conditions, way over-valuated earnings ratios, with a lot of debt, unsatisfactory balance sheets, paltry dividends, lacking growth, with the market up still the helium balloon wants to keep heading up. Now, it only reacts to gold if gold goes up. The helium balloon even thumbs its nose at gold now when gold goes down. I used to think the helium balloon would just end up leaking helium and correct properly and come down some, now I see what will happen is that the helium balloon is getting pumped big and un-natural and too much helium is being pumped and the balloon is going to bust and plummet.
Eh, I still had a decent day and up a decent amount even with the silliness.
I sold my UWTI about 40 minutes ago for $2.60 a share profit a little after the inventory report. Then I bought some JDST at 5.30. Wanted to get a good JDST position today.
Gold is falling hard now. Dumped below 1230 fast. Actually gold isn't too far from where it was yesterday before it spiked. Miners have catching up to do :)
Gold down a decent amount and miners about flat. Kind of normal lately actually even though it seems weird. I doubt gold drops below 1232 today. Gold has been sliding the past couple of weeks with no carry over to miners. I'll be looking to add some DUST today. For me right now DUST is for later. It will get its day in the sun. I got into UWTI yesterday at $21 on the nose and concentrating on that today.
One important thing I have noticed is that since March 11th Gold has put in lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart.
I already have a decent position if DUST goes up right away tomorrow and at the same time have plenty of cash to buy more in the morning in case it drops more in the morning. I'm looking forward to tomorrow.
Have a good one, take care.
Yea, I think this is a very good opportunity. Janet went to a luncheon and basically repeated what she said after the FED meeting awhile back. I know I wouldn't be buying up miners just because she went to a luncheon and repeated herself. Nothing changes that miners are very expensive at 80 times earnings. I like to bet against the herd, I usually win. The herd isn't very bright :)
Yes I made two buys today. First one was a little high at 3.22 and the second at 3.03. I have tons of cash ready for tomorrow.
What I buy tomorrow will be easy money. The 3.03s I bought will be easy money. The 3.22s I bought I got in a bit too early but it won't matter as I'll just hold them. I can wait, it doesn't bother me. Decay sucks but a few weeks doesn't do too much damage. The 3.22s will be easy money too but I'll have to hold them for a little bit.
Great day, very happy that we were able to get another opportunity. I don't care who comes on here and says what. GDX gap down from last week closed, DUST gap up closed, DUST chart carving out bottom, miners way over priced fundamentally, knee jerk reaction to Janet, DUST/JDST setting up for a run soon, cheap shares to buy this afternoon and tomorrow, wonderful. People look at that DUST chart and are afraid, I just see what will be money.
Alright I will lay out my argument with logic. I care about miners themselves as I trade DUST. Miners are very overbought and have not had a correction of any decent size this year since their run up. ABX for instance is up over 100% and many more just like it.
Miners have bad balance sheets on average. Miners are over priced. They have P/E ratios of 70 and 80. They are loaded with debt. Many miners are not even profitable. Miners have sorry growth.
Miners were bought out of a fear trade because of the crappy market to start the year. They were not bought for a hedge against inflation but a hedge against the stock market. If you believe the stock market will go up then the whole premise that miners should go up turns upside down.
Right now in a world of lacking inflation. With the stock market looking ok and Janet being dovish. With miners with bad balance sheets and over-priced with P/E ratios of 70 80 etc, with many having heavy debt, with some not being profitable, with most giving little to no dividend and with them being over bought without having any decent sized correction yet, why on Earth would I believe miners go higher right now? I refuse to over pay for stuff. Anyone who buys a miner is over paying.
Now you are more then welcomed to give your side of the argument as to why miners deserve even more of an over-valuation.
That IMO was a good buy. I just got some more here too. I hold cash for tomorrow though also. I'm trying to predict how long it will take the herd to think past step 1. Usually the herd isn't very bright so I figured it would take at least 24 hours. Got more here just in case the herd figures out sooner that dovish Janet = good for market = bad for gold/miners.
I'm waiting until tomorrow mid-morning probably. It will take a little more time for people to figure out that Janet being dovish is good for the markets (which they know that). They have not put it together yet though that market good = why be in miners. Only other reason is inflation and she even said they are worrisome if they can hit their inflation target. Overseas is fighting off deflation so that won't help gold. I think it takes another day before people figure out dovish Janet = good market = not good for miners/gold.
The dollar will get a beat down but then people will also realize all other central banks stimulating and US not stimulating = dollar should at minimum hold steady.
These will be secondary reactions. The silly and non thought out initial reaction to Janet will fade out and we need to be in before it does. I'm thinking tomorrow.
Naw man, let her yap all she wants. She gives us wonderful opportunities. There are two reasons for gold/miners to go up.
1) inflation
2) stock market fear
Gold/miners went up a ton this year not because of number 1. Inflation is lacking and in the world is non-existant. In US it is mild. Inflation was not the cause of the gold/miner rally this year.
The cause was number 2. Stock market fear and much of that came because of the first rate hike in a decade. When Janet yaps and is dovish the initial reaction will be to buy up gold/miners because as she is perceived to be dovish the thought enters inflation will increase and the dollar will tank. The problem is inflation is no different then what it was at the end of last year. If anything the FED is afraid they won't even hit their inflation target.
The secondary reaction that will come is "hey wait a minute. The gold/miner trade was hot because of market fears this year, not because of inflation." Janet being dovish helps the market. If the market is stable then people will go into it and not want to be in miners. Miners had their run up because the market was shaky this year. The FED pumping up the market put things back like they were before the year started.
Janet has given us a great opportunity. Relax and make some good buys. Most only think step one and two. Think step one through 5 or 6 is the way to make money. Tomorrow morning I believe will be the best time to buy fwiw.
Yes good trading, congrats. Predicting Yellen is usually easy money.
I bought back with half position at 3.23. That right there is why I never hold when Yellen is about to say anything. I don't even know what she said and I don't even care. She is a dove and has been and will be. I don't hold this when she is about to say something. Got out completely yesterday and now get to re-load up fully down here again.
Knee jerk reaction will be to load up on gold/miners because she is dovish but inflation is not what caused the gold/miner rally this year. It was fear of the stock market and dovish talk helps the stock market which then kind of makes the gold/miner trade look less attractive if the stock market is looking ok.
The knee jerk reaction will last 1-2 days. I have half position back and waiting to buy more if we see $3 or under hit.
Got in at $21 right on the nose. Betting $38 for WTI holds.
Looks promising. I think my prediction that DUST and JDST have a little run for the next 3-6 weeks will come to fruition. Tomorrow is looking promising right now at least.
Hope you had a good weekend.
Yes, I have looked into this a lot. DUST is a chart play but even more so a fundamentals play to me. As I have said before I'm really not all that bearish on gold but I am on miners. Which may sound strange but really it isn't. Miners went up a lot more then what they should have in correlation to metals rising this winter. Miners are now extremely expensive. They have P/E ratios to the moon. A lot have bad balance sheets. A lot have high debt. Some are not even profitable. I looked at all of that and then looked at the charts of miners and then of DUST and it looks like a slam dunk.
Now we have metals correcting as well in addition to miners being over-bought and very over-valued. Yet miners still refuse to drop. I went back and had a look and it seems that miners take a couple of weeks before they really react to a sell-off in metals.
Once they do react though they do so in a very fast and steep way. Miners are slow to react but once they do they dive hard and fast. Add the sell-off in metals now with the extreme P/E ratios of miners and that they are very over-bought sets DUST up to be a big winner. It will take patience though.
Last thing is I actually might like JDST more here. It is negligible but I think it might get a bit of a better run then DUST will. JDST should be a little bit more volatile and swing more as junior miners would swing a bit more then the big boys. I was just going to play DUST but now I am going to play them both the more I had thought about it.
Have a good weekend.
No, we agree on that too. I have posted many times I like gold. Things don't go straight up however and DUST is extremely oversold still. Miners especially need to correct, at least gold has to some degree already. All trends have counter trends and I am in DUST as a counter trend play.
Earlier I was just complaining because I want my flipping shares of DUST back that I sold yesterday and want them back at 3.30 or so, not at 3.60 or 3.50. I figured GDX would get a better bounce but it hasn't and won't unless gold picks it up a notch.
What are you not sure about? Regarding what I had said? Overall, what you just wrote is almost exactly what I think.
Gold's performance today IMO is dreadful. That's all the bounce it can muster after such a beatdown, yikes.
Miners up with gold flat, I went ahead and bought some of my flipping shares back just now. Sitting back with a lot of cash waiting to see if the horrendous performance of gold today improves later today or Monday so that I can buy DUST lower then here but I have to say this "bounce" that gold and miners are having today looks very weak.
I was thinking that gold and miners would have a bit of a bounce today after that beat down yesterday. I was hoping to get my flipping shares back at about 3.30 or so but gold and miners look very weak so I'm not so confident that DUST will dip that low now.
DUST now fighting with the 20sma. If it doesn't break above it today it will in coming days. More importantly GDX has broken down well below its 20sma and will close below it for the first time since January. GDX going down further in coming days/weeks.
Regular ol daily chart. To me it looks like DUST gets anywhere from 3-6 weeks of a run when reversing from a steep downtrend. Even if just a counter-trend rally. From what I see usually it achieves RSI 70 but 60 pretty much every time.
Good trade and congrats.
14 days (common one). I will shoot for RSI (14) at 60 to sell my core but it will take time. On the history chart for DUST when it gets a run it goes to RSI 60 at least and usually takes a couple of weeks.
Meanwhile by flipping enough over the past couple of weeks my core is actually a free ride now as all investment money put into my core is now balanced out with flipping profits.
I look for DUST to sell off to 3.20-3.30 or so and from there continue to make a run heading into April and last for some time in April.
Got that right. I made a lot just off my flipping shares. Will look to buy them back maybe tomorrow. Other then that just enjoying and relaxing.
I'd like to get my flipping shares back at 3.30ish and my core I'm riding until I see RSI 60 so I will be holding the core for a little while, probably into April.
Well, time for me to also go find another prospect so good luck to you and see you around.
Great day. I am staying firm on my plan. I have sold all my flipping shares I had at 3.70 today but my core I'm not selling. I am convinced DUST has a run over the next few weeks from anywhere from now and start of May. It is way overdue for a run and I won't sell my core until I see RSI go to at least 60, currently it is 38ish. My flipping shares I will buy back as again this thing is probably just getting started. Things don't go straight up so for my goal of RSI 60 to hit will take a bit of time. I expect a dip for DUST today/tomorrow and then I will buy my flipping shares back.
Again great day and congrats to you and me and everyone here.
Nice post, I liked it. All very good points. Have a good night and lets see what tomorrow has in store.
Flipping is good and fine but there is a bigger possible score. Many think that these leveraged ETFs should not be held at all. I disagree with that to a point. They do have decay but they can be held for bigger scores BUT one has to know how to find bottom or close enough to bottom.
Some might say "well I bought this at 8 dollars or whatever and I got killed, I thought it was bottom". Problem is DUST wasn't really over-sold at that time and miners were not really over bought yet. The market wants to exhaust you. It likes to swing things (especially now a days) to the "extreme". You wait for the extreme or close to it and then you have a chance.
I bought UWTI at 1.18 pre reverse split which was 11.80 now post split. I held a chunk of UWTI along with flipping shares for over a month. I made more on what I held then what I was flipping with.
I bought LABU under 5 bucks. I held that for about a month. Also flipped some too but again made more from what I held then from flipping.
This is just recently. I'm just talking about ETFs. I'm not even mentioning stocks that I also played like SDRL. Also what I am saying is in my posting history so I'm not BSing. These ETFs are crazy but if one has the skill they can make bigger scores by being pretty accurate of knowing what a bottom looks like.
Is DUST at this point? I think it is close. Am I perfect, absolutely not. I mess up sometimes but I think I am pretty darn good. To be honest, from my history and my experience from what I see in DUST I'd say I think it has a good shot of doing a 75-100% run at least within the next 5 weeks or so and it probably won't take that long. I'd give my prediction an 80% chance personally which is good enough for me to want to hold a core position.
I have 3 rules:
1) Never buy all in at one time. That is dangerous and can lead to big problems.
2) If a stock, don't hold through earnings, especially if in a bear market. If you hold through earnings you had better be sure that they will be really good.
3) Don't hold ETFs (especially leveraged ones)through central bank meetings. That leads to trouble.
When I follow my 3 rules and use what I know to "find bottom" I do very very well. I believe we have a good opportunity here and yes I will flip but I will also go for a bigger score as well. If I end up being wrong then so be it. I can live with that. I will find other opportunities but for me not to even try when my past experience and knowledge is telling me this has a run in it and probably soon, and yet I don't even try for it, that would make me upset at myself. Those are my thoughts on this situation and how I feel one can try to limit risk somewhat while also going for a bigger score as well.
Best wishes to you and good luck.
Naw, didn't catch it at the time but I see it on the chart.
Yep, that's what I have been doing and what I will be doing. I have a core and flip around it. I'll even flip the core too when the price is right.
I believe for the next 5-6 weeks we have a very good opportunity with DUST to make money, flip it, trade it, swing it, whatever. I believe DUST goes on a nice little rally for a little bit (5-6 weeks).
The world had a "fear event" today. Gold did not shine. For GDX the volume is getting pretty sorry the last 3 days. People can continue to buy miners if they want to. I would just wonder why would they be willing to over pay for them so much. I guess some like to over pay for stuff. We should do well here for a little while.
I'm actually bullish on gold but gold miners are acting like helium balloons. All trends have counter trends. All runs have pullbacks. All cycles have corrections. It is in the counter-trend trade where I do my best, I'm good at it. I am always going against the herd (once the time is right).
DUST is down 9 weeks in a row. How many weeks is one supposed to think it will go down for? 10 weeks? 12 weeks? 16 weeks? The helium balloon (GDX) is going to leak out soon IMO.
Flipped for a 22 cents gain a share on my buy this morning. I still hold core shares at 3.03 avg. Just trading around my core probably for the next month.
Bought my shares back at 2.99. Gold miners still very over-bought and extremely over-priced/valued. Emotions of fear and irrational exuberance about gold will only last so long. In again for another trade, hopefully there will be enough emotional buyers to buy miners up even more so that DUST drops further. I'm ready with a lot of cash to buy. Target for GDX is to fill that gap at about 15. That gap will be filled. They always get filled. Might take weeks might take months but it will fill. In the mean time I'll hang around and flip as DUST finishes bottoming and then rises heading into next month.
My thoughts on why gold is up so much this year is basically that is was very oversold last year. The media will say this and that blah blah but the bottom line is that it was oversold and it was time for it to have a rally.
Fundamentally the world is lacking inflation. They keep stimulating just to hold back deflation. The US has some inflation though but is basically the only zone in the world that does. I would say that the mild inflation that the US has is decent reason enough to have allowed gold to get a rally SINCE gold was over sold and needed a correction upward. To a point that is and starting a week ago gold then was over-bought and inflation (which is mostly lacking) didn't justify any further rise I'd say.
The market had a very rocky start to the year and so people jumped to gold. With mild US inflation and gold being oversold from last year I can see how the 3 conditions put together (fear, gold oversold, US mild inflation) were able to cause gold to go up 20% so far this year. Is this still justified at this point in time? Perhaps but things don't go straight up.
DUST is the inverse of miners. Miners are very over-bought and over-valued. They now have gigantic P/E ratios. Bloomberg has a story out trying to say miners are undervalued in relation to their reserves historically. I say I don't care what they have in their reserves if I have to pay P/E ratios at 70 or 80. With gold now at this level forward P/Es of 40 or so. No thanks. The stocks are too expensive and I'm not paying that. If others want to pay up that's up to them. I'm not paying up.
The time to buy miners was when they were over-sold. That was a few months ago. The time to sell them is when they are over-bought and over-valued, that would be now.
DUST and JDST are now oversold. The chart is clear as day that they are, just as charts should gold and miners were oversold last year. People seem to hate DUST. I say good, I like that. I like buying stuff that the herd hates because the herd and the media will flip on a dime, they always do. I see articles out now saying gold is going to $8000. I love seeing things like that. When the media starts pumping then the turn is near.
Mostly though the chart now shows DUST and JDST oversold. People jumped into them too early before they were actually over sold and before gold and miners were actually over-bought. In my view starting about a week maybe 2 ago DUST and JDST got to what I consider truly over-sold.
I don't know if gold will now be in a bull cycle. I don't really care. I do know miners are over-valued. I know they are over-bought. I know the inverse ETFs are over-sold. I know that there isn't enough inflation fundamentally to justify gold rising further. I know much of the world is fighting off deflation. I know the market looks better then earlier this year and there is less fear. I know miners have been on a massive run in this young year. I also know they have had no correction or even decent pullback. I know they are overdue for one.
This may sound kind of strange but I'm not so much a bear on gold. I'm a bear on miners right here at this point in time. They need a correction. The rise they are having without any correction is not sustainable, not fundamentally sound now at this point, and not backed up by a whole lot. The 3 reasons above I gave yes, but what, miners are balloons now and just go up up up and never correct? No that isn't how it works.
Matter of fact since there were no corrections or really pullbacks miners have gap ups all over the place. GDX has a gap at about $15. That is not good. Again, I'm not against gold or even a gold bear. Longer term I like gold but miners need a correction really bad and in many ways it just screams at me.
This is a crazy ETF so if I were asked I'd say DUST has a good chance at a little run as miners correct from their very expensive price and over-bought conditions and gaps fill. Flip it, trade it, whatever pleases you but I am confident DUST turns bullish pretty soon.
Nice job, don't you love the market? Went from a zero to a hero in just a few hours.