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They don't need a specific machine to do multiple indications/procedures. The basis, as it's been explained to me, is proving specific tasks as compared to the daVinci. So I've asked, and so far no one has been able to answer why the need for 9 units. If it's not specific to certification - it's an extremely unnecessary extravagance. IMO.
I think the announcement of Dr. Fowler's resignation was initially viewed as a very bad indication of the direction of the company. I think now that I've had more time to think it through, I think it's part of the process to reduce the time line to design freeze, and certification. That said, I don't know if his absence is bad or good at this point. Only that a shorter time line is VERY good for all. JMO.
Regards,
BK
Fowler going to Verb is part of the package?
Would Verb want Titan mgmt? JH and his daughter to develop the SPORT division?
If people are going to defect, then to where? Most of these guys are pretty far along in their careers. They just don't jump, without a place to land. IMO. Unless there's a parachute.
There are still too many pieces to this puzzle to have a clear picture for me. Some thoughts presented are plausible.
Verb has a $250B budget, but that money doesn't buy an accelerated time line to develop a surgical robot in the next 2 years. $60M could buy them a piece of SPORT today.
Remember, Xanax is your friend.
Regards,
BK
That would depend on how far along they are already.
They "had" several thousand line items still necessary to address, but I think that was before the AGM and the BoD vote. There's no other remedy that which I can think to spend less $$$, and get to certification faster, than to shorten the time lines in the development plan. It makes sense to me, in that the BoD would go along with JH and Dr. Fowler's plans so long as there were no funding issues. Which is where we are today. So now they're left with addressing the funding issues. The least expensive of which is to reduce the development plan. Again, so long as it doesn't compromise the quality and performance of SPORT. JMO.
Regards,
BK
The sooner they announce design freeze the better.
Big $$$ is making efforts to change the time lines. How can that not be a very good thing?
Who has seen the robot and thinks it needs to do more for safe, effective 4-quad, abdominal surgery? I defer to our professional members for that opinion.
What? The foot pedals need to be changed for taller/shorter surgeons? That's not a big issue.
I don't know why, and I don't think anyone else knows either as to why Dr. Fowler is resigning. But if he's willing to consult, how is that different than what was being done b4? Is he at Ximedica? Surely the procedures are well documented by now? So as a consultant that would be 99% of what's needed at this time. No?
JMO
Regards,
BK
They're moving up the time lines. IMO.
Didn't Titan requested "task" based certification.
If I recall, as provided by several professional members in the med community, SPORT is being documented to prove capability for each surgical task, as compared to the predicate device.
There doesn't need to be an encyclopedic number of procedures to prove capability. I think the myriad of documented procedures may be needed for training purposes for specific procedures. So they're not completely necessary to get us passed the engineering design/final design freeze - to CE/FDA application. Just as 9 robots are clearly not needed either.
Also, I think that this is just another element that has occurred because of the BoD making JH move faster than was previously planned. They're moving up the time lines. As far as Dr. Fowler's move, it's anyone guess, but logic would lead me conclude that he is not happy with shortening the time line, which would include shortening the testing/procedures. So long as it's as safe as can be possibly made, while meeting all requisite requirements for certification, what's not to like? JMO.
Regards,
BK
My sincere apologies.
I really appreciate the effort and your contributions.
Thank you.
Regards,
BK
I reply as Bigkahuna57. But, when you go look at the Titan facebook page that was created by ST, it shows up in my wife's name. I don't have a facebook account. Just wanted to make that clear. I'm BK, not Carolyn.
Regards,
BK
Titan can't say that they're not getting help.
For those that haven't connected the dots, I use the wife's facebook account.
Regards,
BK
I laughed until I cried.
Toronto Craig's List. Titan, IP, and 5 SPORTS for sale.
http://toronto.craigslist.ca/tor/for/5752293845.html
Must read.
Thank you to whoever put that together.
Regards,
BK
I think so too.
What if their primary strategy (not saying right or wrong), was to go it alone, and it has just changed over the course of the past 60 days? Because raising funds has not panned out as previously projected.
So JH gets voted out of the board room, and gets a kick in the pants to get this product to market.
The Chinese part of the equation likes SPORT because they can't build anything like it, and really want to be in the medical/surgical segment. JH says, we need "$X" funding and the pps is too low at this time, because we don't want to create that much dilution. So we have to balance what we need and what you want. We can close the deal if you provide "$X," but we don't want "$X" to cost us another 100M shares. He offers a more of a performance based contract and the proposed timetable, which can close as soon as they come across with the funding. Not promises, actual transfer.
Also, say there were conversations since the unveiling of SPORT by other potential partners, but TITAN's plan all along was to go alone, or wait for the "can't pass this up" buyout. But now it's a new dynamic and they've come to the conclusion that they can't get to the promised land without a partner. So "other" conversations are taking place while the Chinese option is continually being developed.
I may not have all of the cards right, but I think those are the hands that are being played at the moment. My only question would be, "Who's talking with Titan?"
I have come to no conclusions other than these as possibilities, because of today's announcement with our potential Chinese partnership.
I still think SPORT is/has attracted potential suitors based on all of my previous points, from recent posts about the marketplace, competition, the need for growth by existing medical device companies, the real value of IP, and SPORT being a real product as of today.
JMO
Regards,
BK
Agree with the FDA approval.
Regards,
BK
Wow.
This was an off color moment, and not the best representation of yourself.
How it was explained to me. There's a different connotation when those from within "the" ethnicity use a slanderous word to describe themselves. It's quite the contrary when used by someone from a different ethnicity. It's interpreted as a "derogatory" reference. REGARDLESS of your protest of innocence, it felt like your intent was to be demeaning.
Your assumption that it's within the realm of "reasonable" or completely acceptable as a respectful ethnic "label" is absolutely incorrect.
Of course none of this applies if you're Chinese and including yourself within the group reference.
IMO.
Regards,
BK
Where the heck did that come from????
I've rewritten this line so many times.. I'm out of words.
BK
I'm thinking it was the lawyers advice. It's an event that critically affects the plans that were made public.
JMO
Regards,
BK
I think that's his point.
So, am I to conclude that "smart money" may/may not care if China funding is successful? All things being equal, I'd prefer not to see China funding. It's a risk - I'd rather not have the exposure.
But I also think that "smart money" stayed pat (because of what they knew), and may have just bought more early last week. "Smart money" may view these funding issues as "par for the course?"
The "why" I think they stayed pat? If "smart money" sold, we would have seen 10's of millions of shares trade. As it happened only a small fraction (3-3.5M shares) turned over. That's 30-35 100K traders. I can only guess that "smart money" just saw this as a blip. IMO.
Regards,
BK
Who knows?
No matter what I think, the final conclusion of this process will not be what any of us predict because it's all based on timing. Sure it will get to $.70. Then without any prior notice something else will occur and have an affect on the pps. I think daily volume will be a direct indicator of changes happening.
I also think it's important to say "why" I came to a specific conclusion. The "why" creates transparency and allows for immediate debate if it has a smell factor.
I do appreciate hearing from everyone and particularly those in the profession, as their opinions hold more weight than any of my conclusions. Which is why I do miss Lefty's and Daktari's opinions. Anyone out there work with either of them? Let us know how they're doing please.
Hopefully we'll get to finish these conversations in Vegas, or where ever.
Regards,
BK
I don't see what you see.
So the debate has moved to "the ugly side of business vs science?" You don't think any company has talked with Titan about a partnership or buyout? And your argument is based on the pps as it stands today? If I misunderstood your position, I apologize.
Yep. I'm an upside vision person. I look for clarity of vision.
I think there have been discussions to partner or sell, and at the time, there was funding available to get us further down the road and the logic at that time was, "the closer we get to certification the more valuable SPORT becomes." Not implausible.
My view - or 10:
A) R&D is not an exact science. But ours has become a real product.
B) Business success is not a straight line.
C) Competition? It's out there, but where? If bringing another surgical robot to market were easy there would be more than 1 by now. We've heard from several other possible competitors. We also know how steep a climb it is to get as far as we have, and the significant amount of time it takes to get a patent application reviewed and approved. I suspect those competitive announcements were put into the public domain as mental obstacles to slow down budget commitments for SPORT. Why the announcements? No clue. Just opinion and the facts are TBD.
D) This robot is the key to a ++$20B market opportunity.
E) *** There are other medical device company CEO's that get paid BIG $$$ for performance. Medtronic has a 2016 $2.2B annual R&D budget. Where are they, or their competitors going to get $20B in new revenue in the next 5-10 years??? I think the $20B market estimate is very low, without any military medical estimates included. But it's an estimate and I like to err using conservative numbers.
F) M & A is king. R&D is more likely to create clarity for vision, and business intelligence that indicates what would be successful in the years to come. We have a product that allows SPORT to be part of that conversation TODAY. Not that said company's R&D budget will create "the" product that will generate the revenue growth. Which is why there is so much attention and emphasis on acquisitions. R&D is expensive with no guarantee of getting to the goal. It's cheaper to buy IP and a known product than create it from scratch. Mostly because time is expensive and unpredictable. Stuff can happen at any time in the future. (9/11 and the housing market collapse, to name a few)
G) IP is the definitive weapon of choice as a barrier to new market entry. That's not speculation. Our IP is unique, exists, designed by the experts that will use it.
H) Management contracts get renegotiated all the time. Move existing management over - new management takes over and rides out the old contracts. They don't have to spend more $ buying out the former contracts. How many contracts could there be in place? 3? 5?
I) There is a BoD and I suspect they've put the CEO on a clock. BIG $$$ kick started this change. But I don't know how good that is because I don't know what's transpired since SPORT was unveiled. Usually BIG $$$ has better information than I do. Hopefully.
J) There may be a new CoB this year. Who knows? Not me, and not anyone that's talking on this board.
You're invested. Why $.70/share buyout? I won't have an affect on the buyout if/when it's proposed to shareholders. I don't have enough votes. I just don't see such a low value when analyzing my conclusions. All IMO.
I hope all on this board reach a more peaceful state of mind - if only for a short time, until we're provided more information from which we can act.
Regards,
BK
I'm convinced that there's more activity and info than we'll ever know, and I'm still buying at this price or lower.
I'm close to 100K, and would have bought another 100K if I had the cash at hand early last week.
How much hand wringing did ISRG shareholders go through on the way to FDA?
I'm happy to hear from Noemotionseller, he's spoken with ISRG rep's to get their opinions. SPORT is "special."
$1.50 buyout? Here's crazy.
Why not put it up for auction with a no refund buy-in and minimum reserve? Win, win. Big company buys SPORT. Or, if the reserve isn't met, then the buy-in funds pay for further progress until certification. Problem solved. Buy early or pay more later.
8-12 months from date of additional financing.
Regards,
BK
I did say with a shorter time line and financing.
I'm not trying to enter the the debate on "who's going to be right."
I'm only trying to point out some elements to the conversation that may not be at the forefront of the debate.
Regards,
BK
I agree. If Titan gets a bid...
This product is a big leap forward in the existing market place. Time is money. Based on the interest, ++$20B market potential and competition in the med device marketplace, more than one bid would be received IMO. So Titan should not go for a low ball amount. Market dynamics will have a positive effect on pps, and pps will be bid up if for nothing else - making the competitor company that wants Titan the most, deplete their cash and/or stock reserves as a way to slow down the acquisition/expansion train. That's why cash on hand and low debt are so powerful.
Strong reasoning to own Titan would be; as a barrier to competition, a strategic buy with a leverage factor to open up a market and expand an existing surgical market segment for the acquirer. ***Not to mention alternate markets for the IP. This tech is small, portable, programmable, flexible. IMO.
Oversight? When looking at the overall size of the marketplace, I didn't see a reference to military opportunities. (Please correct me if I missed it.) There's another thousand potential placements throughout the government/DoD, and our allies. That market could be a separate division unto itself.
REGARDLESS, with the present plan I still think we're 8-12 months from serious bid action. (Unless there is more that which we're aware. And we are completely unaware, except that the product exists and is works as designed - with guidance from the SAB.) Unless the time line is shortened and financing is secured. Then it could be as soon as 6-8 months.
I think the magic pps range is between $8 - $15. I'm using 240M shares outstanding. IMO.
Regards,
BK
No spin zone.
I'm only trying to point out, while there is ample anxiety about financing, there are moves that can be made that will not cost any $, and get us to the promised land (pun intended)sooner than what's been published by mgmt.
Also, if any company is considering a partnership or buyout offer, they can look into these suggestions because it increases the value of the company and their investment.
If anyone else comes up with an idea that will provide a shorter timeline to certification, and/or less financing - let's HEAR it.
Regards,
BK
SPORT value is what it costs to make one better.
The cost to duplicate what is SPORT today will be VERY expensive. In time, creativity, and the ability to generate patents.
The 2 key issues holding the pps back are time to certification and financing. This admitted "crisis" has just helped with both. IMO.
This financing crunch just helped us. They should reduce the number of test units planned and that will immediately reduce the amount of time necessary to submit for certifications. I have yet to hear why 9 units is magical, when 1 will do the job. And we have 5. So now we've shortened the time line AND require less financing.
IMO
Regards,
BK
IMO. That won't happen.
The IP creates a leap forward to whomever wants to compete in this segment of medical. There's already a market, already competition, the product is developed and demonstrated to a point of "usable" functionality (only based on what's been shared from actual surgeons posted on this board. Not my opinions) - and the IP is patented.
For me - I have to use all of my experience and logic to continue with the level of conviction that brought me to invest here in the first place.
Regards,
BK
Fair question.
I probably wouldn't have gone that far to begin with, unless the pps was really low. This pps (or lower) is too compelling for me not to add 10-20%, regardless of the amount that I've invested.
I do know that I really like the product in its current state of functionality.
To go much further, I'd have to know more about what it takes to get to and through the approval process. The time line is key for me at this point, and if it can be shortened. IMO - the certification time line is the key factor at this point that directly effects financing.
Regards,
BK
You didn't.
It was a continuation of the general group conversation.
Sorry about that.
Regards,
BK
Perspectives:
A) Still looking for opinions from the Dr.s to hear why 9 robots are necessary, or if there is some advantage that is not obvious to me. An update would be nice to hear as to which procedures have been documented and the schedule for the rest near-term. I can hope!
B) The time line must be reduced to have more of an effect with financing. It can be changed with minimal effect.
C) I'm surprised that I haven't seen this commented. The MM's are still having influence on the pps. We wouldn't be this low, if they would leave the ASK alone. I don't know if we'd be over $1. But we would be in a supply vs demand environment. And I do think we'd be over $1, with all of the units and testing on-going. Say what you will, this is just not a $1/share device - if ALF is $100M too.
D) I have no idea about financing. I do think MANY opportunities have been reviewed with those offering $$$$ wanting too much of the co. Whether a deal with China is good is TBD. Bad vs Less-bad.
E) The BoD have not been working that long on finding a replacement CoB. IMO, they will find connections to fix the situation, but didn't have the directive to act until the AGM vote. 120 days-ish. Hargrove is not going anywhere until there's a new CoB, unless there's someone that I don't recognize that's already inside the co. to take his place. Or someone on the BoD steps in as "acting."
F) If financing were in place to get us to mid-late 2017, we'd be +$2 pps.
Still cost averaging down because - SPORT is the best known MIS robot in the market that which I'm aware.
Grammar tip of the day - "irregardless" is NOT a word.
Regards,
BK
What's significant about 9 robots?
Can the medical pro's provide more info why 9 is the "magic" number? Is there an advantage to have each robot used for specific indications? Clearly a single robot can be used in multiple indications. Does each indication require that much time to document and provide video confirmation as to the necessary similarities to the predicate device?
Is there an advantage that I don't see to have 9 units, perhaps in different locations, besides exposure to more countries at the same time? Did I read that they were going for 3 countries initially anyway? Please correct me if I'm not remembering these details.
Otherwise 9 units is spending $$ without justification - in my mind.
Change the launch milestones. Shorten that development time line. Create more anticipation to market, which will be a compelling point of conversation when trolling for funding.
If Titan were to declare application early next year, it would change the dynamics of the marketplace. IMO.
Regards,
BK
I agree.
I'm not debating "perfection" over functionality. 5 robots to prove capability should get us to a majority of the pending opportunities. IMO.
It's got to be less expensive to fly a Dr. and record a procedure using an existing test SPORT than continue to build more SPORTS.
Regards,
BK
Who wouldn't want Rev 2.0?
If the initial customer buys 1.0, and knows what's coming in 2.0 and can expand indications - for minimal upgrade charges, what's the hold up???? IMO
AND..... if the plan all along was to sell out to another larger company, the product still has the same appeal because ALL of the announced indications are still viable, just the timeline to market is shorter. IF one of the possible suitors wanted more indications for a "possible" acquisition or partial ownership, it only kept SPORT from getting to market sooner. SPORT is more attractive once ANY certification is approved, and WILL attract more possible suitors. IMO
Regards,
BK
I got filled.
Regards,
BK
What's the alternative?
Would you/me/us rather have dilution and move quicker to CE mark, or delay development?
I'd vote to reduce the number of indications, minimize expense and get to CE ASAP. Take the path of least resistance and capitalize on the majority of the largest opportunities. Reducing number of indications will not change the functionality of Rev 1.0. But it will make 2.0 clearer.
Yes I agree better financing arrangements should have been developed.
Declaring fewer indications and less expense to get to CE may also open up financing opportunities. Maybe?
Regards,
BK
Same.
My view(s) - news stays the same, or changes in mgmt, or announcement of financing. Don't see more downside near term, and same upside as prior to no Chinese deal(s) at this time.
As bad as the news appears, agreeing to a bad Chinese deal is worse. So.... no deal is less bad(?) There's logic in there somewhere.
+2M shares traded yesterday. That's not a mass exodus.
Agree - alternate financing should have been developed.
Yes, I did buy more today, and will continue near term. My basis is knowing the product exists and there are 5 units running. Why not scale back indications and work with what they've built? Less is more to keep expenses to a minimum.
Mgmt should suspend salary/pay until financing is in place to get to CE mark. IMO.
Regards,
BK
I stayed. May add a little more this week or next.
Regards,
BK
"Gloom, despair, and agony on me-e!
Deep dark depression, excessive misery-y!
If it weren't for bad luck I'd have no luck at all!
Gloom, despair, and agony on me-e-e!"
Regards,
BK
Synopsis of iRep, 063010 DHHS/NIH grant.
https://www.nibib.nih.gov/news-events/newsroom/horizon-flexible-robotic-surgery
Thanks FBF.
Regards,
BK
Nope. No narrative.
Regards,
BK
Agree with both of your points.
Regards,
BK
Page 20 paragraph 2. Robot in 4 years.
We should be all across the US, Canada, UK and the EU by then.
I'd really like to hear about the plans and/or partners for entering those markets.
Regards,
BK
http://www.aagl.org/pdf/16WRGC.pdf
credit for that goes to Josh Collins.
The robot will be there but supposedly not in at conference, because it's not FDA approved. Perhaps in a private meeting room? Just guessing for now. It was in a private meeting room when it was unveiled this past spring.
Can anyone else provide better info as I'm guessing how the unit will be available please?
Regards,
BK
Thanks to both of you.
Is Dardani an A$$-O or what?
Regards,
BK