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Seems to me like market maker games...
So someone can accumulate at lower prices by scaring retail. I've put up decent sized bids close to some of these absurdly low asks and they won't show my full bid. It's a good sign in my opinion if you can ignore the blatant manipulation.
It's rather lengthy
But it's now in the public domain, so if someone else would like to share it, I'm fine with that (not that I could object anyways:)).
Looking forward to Wednesday, but I believe that will just be the start of the IR campaign (and it will be a campaign, not an event). Shareholder education can take time for some to grasp the potential.
Comps
Just to correct and actually further support the points you made, $NOW is trading at 180x trailing revenue, not earnings. That company won't generate earnings for a long time, but the market is obviously fine with that given the growth potential. Moreover, the market is looking at the company's assets, not just its ability to monetize (ie. generate revenue and potentially earnings). The asset value gets recognized before the monetization takes place. That is the norm in high-growth, technology sectors.
Just look at the venture capital markets where you hear of unicorns (ie. $1bn+ valuation companies) all the time. That has nothing to do with trailing revenue, which is constrained by the ability to hire and train salespeople to sell the product. In addition, potential strategic acquirers will be doing buy vs. build analyses on CLHI/TDS to assess whether it's better to just buy the company and use their internal teams to monetize. I am highly confident that the buy vs. build analysis (I did this type of work at a large Internet company during a non-bubble period) supports a much higher valuation for CLHI's stock. I remember an instance where we paid $20mm for a company that had a simple product built by 5 post-college kids with no prospect for revenue near term. This was simply because one of the product managers thought it had strategic value and we could monetize it. That $20mm valuation would probably translate to $100mm in today's market. TDS is way past that point, and that ignores the two acquisitions they've talked about (which could add tens of millions of revenue today).
Even Warren Buffett, probably the most famous "value" investor (I personally view him more as a GARP-type investor) took a position in $NOW at a valuation that proved to be ~77x trailing revenue. Even 77x earnings is not a value multiple let alone 77x revenue. The data-related sectors are simply ones that many investors (ie. the price setters) view as having sustainable growth and justify higher valuations based on asset value. The logic is that the revenues will either come as the company hires more people to sell the products or a larger company will acquire them (not possible in $NOW's case, but easily in CLHI/TDS' case) and monetize the assets with their larger salesforce and operating capabilities.
Interesting
Didn't think OTC stocks showed up there, but perhaps that's a new policy. Great to see as the debate won't be shackled.
I did notice that at least one of the same folks that espouse the worn out and silly counter-arguments have already shown up. Guess it's their mission to protect the vulnerable against the crime of making a big return.
The waiting is the hardest part...
In the words of the late and great Tom Petty. It sounds like we're close to completing the DE process. I like the direct nature of communication in the past couple of weeks. I think it bodes well for the PRs that will start hitting soon.
I also like the steady volume and price in the past few days. Yes, there's been some intraday volatility, but that's fine. Churning the investor base sets up well for the next leg higher.
It's a big deal
I do a lot of work in the crypto space and blockchain in general. It's a topic that is very important in those areas and the Europeans have taken the lead when it comes to data privacy.
Might want to update your Discord room
With news from the most recent TDS newsletter (particularly the bottom of the second page).
Signal Advance
I only highlighted to show trading potential for CLHI given similar share structure.
Take a look at $IGL
Similar share structure, but no substance unlike TDS/CLHI. If our IR firm does its job, the market cap can expand enormously from here.
Thanks for putting that together
And spreading the word. I do believe that this stock is one where the benefits of being early will be significant. Many information catalysts are going to drop in rapid succession IMO.
Agreed
Not the typical OTC stock that one can summarize in a couple of bullet points. Multi-faceted story that even those of us that have followed since inception in May 2020 can't fully appreciate yet.
A few points
- TDS is a data services and platform provider. Competes against companies like Snowflake, ZoomInfo, Datadog and Palantir. The comps have market caps ranging from $15bn to $90bn. CLHI/TDS currently has a market cap of only ~$36mm.
- Company's technology is applicable to several "hot" markets including AI (automated call centers, lead generation an probably a lot more), Blockchain, 5G, IoT etc. Expertise in GDPR (data privacy protection), a European standard that will likely become pervasive throughout the Western world.
- Announced the completion of the acquisition of the largest US B2B database in late September 2020. Company opened a US office in Nashville to accelerate its efforts.
- Negotiating the acquisition of CreditSafe, which management indicated could add $40mm in revenues now and ramp to over $80mm in 12-18 months.
- Great management team including top-notch CFO and board of advisors. Blue chip customer base in the UK. Strong group of service providers supporting the company including NY-based IR outfit, legal teams in the UK and US and Computershare as the transfer agent (lengthy list of Nasdaq and NYSE traded clients). This company shouldn't stay on the OTC for long.
- On the cusp of a big data drop with PRs formally announcing the merger, investor presentation etc.
- Responsive on Twitter and releases frequent updates. Pace of updates likely to accelerate once merger is confirmed in Delaware (should happen any day).
- Great share structure with only 24mm total shares.
Hope that helps. I'd point to the Twitter feed to for additional information (https://twitter.com/thedatasourceuk).
I felt the same
I accumulated between $0.05-$0.10 and bought some more at $0.20 after the pull back from the initial spike at the end of December. I was willing to take a shot at lower prices given the risk/reward was so favorable and the share structure is good. Moreover, there doesn't seem to be any dilution.
That said, Ballout doesn't inspire confidence with poorly worded PRs (basically incomprehensible) and difficult to understand financials. Uplisting to Nasdaq is impossible without audited financials. He repeatedly blames OTC for the valuation, but that's a cop out. It's his fault and he needs to remedy the situation.
I will wait and watch. Might miss the first $0.10-$0.20 of the next move, but I'd be happy to do so as long as the risk is minimized.
Not the update I was hoping for
I'm perplexed that we still haven't gotten audited financials. That press release also was difficult to follow for me at least. I'm out, but will keep watching for audited fins and a better explanation of what's going with the business.
GLTA.
If you communicate with Mr. Stephenson..
I'm sure he probably is on top of this, but we need the company to highlight the company's blockchain and big data capabilities. Companies with much less substance are putting this in PRs and it's translating, literally, into hundreds of millions in market cap.
I take comfort that TDS/CLHI actually has substance in this area, but no harm in capitalizing on the market backdrop.
Judging by their twitter activity
They are hell bent on waiting for the "authorities" to do their thing before releasing PRs. I assume that means the DE SOS process, but perhaps there are other items to take care of. I think it's silly given the OTC page has confirmed the merger and there is ample precedent for releasing a status update PR, but we'll just have to assume they have their reasons.
I wouldn't bother asking them
Not sure it's that important to bother Stephenson. I'd rather he focus on growing the business and getting filings up to date:)
What do you think was the point of TD$ posting this?
Scratching my head. We know they did a private placement, just to confirm that fact?
All a song and dance until they start dropping PRs, but I bought a little more today to take advantage of the impatient. I hope we get more substantive updates soon, but it does appear that a lot of the groundwork has been completed.
One by one...
The bear points getting debunked:
1. Supposedly a rumor that the merger was off. Wrong.
2. T trades represented dilution. Wrong.
3. TA verification. Done.
It's quite obvious that TDS was doing a lot of work behind the scenes and now it's coming to fruition. Much more to be revealed in January and the rest of 2021.
Looks like we have an IR firm now too
Apologize if someone spotted that earlier, but I'm catching up on all the updates. I didn't notice an IR firm before today.
Investor Relations/Marketing/Communications
Consulting for Strategic Growth 1, Ltd.
733 Third Ave (45th Street)
6th Floor
New York, NY 10017
Guess we can dispel the nonsense rumor of no RM!
Sad the lengths that some will go to when they have seller's remorse or didn't participate at all.
Agreed
As I stated a few days ago, the event risk was eliminated when the vote results were confirmed on Dec 4th. Too bad some retail shareholders fell for lies, but that's part of the game. We're all constantly processing information to find the truth.
One can tell that TDS is anxious to issue PRs and tell the story in more detail, but they're following legal advice and taking a more conservative approach.
Thanks for that Pro
And thanks for the DM you sent. Company is working hard under difficult circumstances in the UK to get this over the line. Some of the posters on Twitter need to give the company a break and time to get the paperwork done. It does seem that at least one notable one was blocked so the conversation isn't unnecessarily polluted.
What does that mean?
You seeing signs that the filings are complete?
Doesn't bother me
Waiting for the inevitable re-rating much higher after the information dominoes start to fall. Hope that starts with removing the stop sign soon, but we'll start seeing a wave of updates in January.
Ask is fake IMO
I just put up a bid at $1.45 to test. The $1.49 immediately vanished.
If you wanted to sell at $1.49 and are reading this, I'm there to soak it up.
Blew through that
On unbelievable dollar volume. Curious if Albayraklar (or some other foreign investors) is buying stock now.
Ballout did suggest that the stock would get a boost from foreign partners buying at some point. Perhaps we finally reached that point.
Still only trading at ~1.5x trailing earnings.
No idea
Would be nice to see follow through for confirmation, but that dollar volume on Thursday was very interesting, particularly on a shortened day.
Synergy deals
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but TDS seems like a very different deal for Ben Berry than the other types of companies he arranges for an RM. This company is in high growth, high margin sectors that can more easily expand globally. This is particularly true now as Covid has made virtual sales calls (via zoom, teams etc.) an accepted sales practice versus spending a lot of money on T&E traveling around the world. There is a lot of operating leverage inherent in this business model- that in addition to the growth potential is what will support a high valuation multiple. Ben's other deals, while good for shareholders, are typically in more mature businesses or ones that don't have the growth potential that TDS does. I believe this is why Ben held shares, which doesn't seem to be his normal practice (at least for this long after the merger).
Growth stocks in hot sectors
One thing I've learned in my career is that valuing companies in high growth sectors is very difficult using traditional models. They almost always go well past the upper boundaries that many determine are "fair". Thus, it's better to focus on where the stock could ultimately trade and relative valuations, then trying to pinpoint an estimate of "fair" value.
We've been in a bit of a frustrating holding pattern since shareholders voted for the merger. That said, it's been a healthy consolidation period that offered some the opportunity to take profit and I suppose some traders have played the range.
Once the substantive news starts hitting, I believe we'll blow through the highs and establish a much higher trading range. We'll also get more information to better assess "fair value", but I'd view anyone's estimate with a healthy dose of skepticism. In the short-run, given the small float, supply/demand will be much more important in determining the price. Value will be determined over time.
Upside is open ended
IMO given the public comps are highly valued and we know of acquisitions in the hopper. The platform is also very exciting given the applications extend well beyond B2B and B2C marketing.
I think filings take us north of there
I believe a lot of people are waiting for confirmation from DE as is TDS before it can release more information.
I think you're right
I'm an amateur technical analyst (read a number of books), professional fundamental analyst and think that's a textbook symmetrical triangle. Once the filings and other dominoes fall, as you suggest, there will be a strong (hopefully violent as some suggest) upward breakout. There shouldn't be much problem breaking the high in the mid $2s.
Catalyst rich stock
Really up to Ballout to get things done. Valued at little more than a shell because of the time to get audited financials. That said, there are a number of catalysts for next year: audited financials, Wattozz, new solar projects etc.
You referring to $T-HC?
Looks like it's TA verified now. I haven't been paying attention as to whether that's new, but I hope that's a good sign as well.
Additional food for thought
The acquisitions may have an uplist contingency. I've seen some deals like this that require the acquirer, ie. TDS, to uplist within a certain time frame or the target (ie. Infuse, CreditSafe) gets additional consideration (presumably shares). Again, I'm not saying that's the case here, but I believe TDS will have a strong impetus to uplist as quickly as possible. Based on the tags they've included in tweets and their interactions with certain responses, I believe this is a reasonable assumption.
I appreciate the compliment and your repeated efforts to add due diligence to the board. Just trying to add some incremental perspective as well.
SPACs as an analogy
As we await completion of merger formalities, I think it's interesting to look at the stock movement of companies effectively reverse merging with SPAC "shells". In most cases, the stocks, despite the deals being known and fully expected to be successfully completed, respond very positively to merger completion. The fundamentals of the story haven't changed, either positively or negatively, but this is undoubtedly important for some buyers. This is partly due to some investment managers not being able to own "blind pool" vehicles.
I believe we're in a similar situation with CLHI/TDS. There is no event risk, only the time lag to get the merger paperwork completed. Once that's done, the dominoes start falling and impediments to owning for many shareholders will go away. Moreover, we will hopefully learn more about the B2B database acquisition (they haven't given a sneak peek into that one yet) and CreditSafe (I imagine they're waiting on completing the merger to finalize that if not already done).
Sellers gone, buyers waiting?
Guess positions have been taken and now we wait. Up to management now.
You could be right
At this point, I'd like to move to the next stage where we get PRs from the company and more information to assess the story.
I took advantage today to "top up" my position.
Certainly seems like a tsunami of information will hit
Once the shackles of the merger process are shortly removed.
I can't wait to learn more about the data platform that the COO alluded to in the LinkedIn post.