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MJ Vending Machines Already Exist
I don't need a link or HuffPo article to explain what I already know.
One of the dispensaries I frequent in LA has a traditional vending machine containing various smokable, edible and other cannabis products. The vending machine is the typical coil release, the kind Homer got his arm stuck in. Customers often come to the store just to buy from the vending machine.
What separates ERBBs machines is a network setup that has live security monitoring, RFID technology, age verification systems and other proprietary technology that the company has stated they cannot release due to trade secrets. These machines, like traditional machines, could be leased to MJ shops all over the country!
In fact, here in LA a dispensary tried to setup a 24 hour machine that customers could access at all hours without entering the main store. That did not go over well and the plan was scrapped. However, had the company had access to a regulated, secure machine things may have been different.
ENTIRE MJ SECTOR ENTERING GOLDEN CROSS
I don't think I can stress the significance of this bullish occurrence but I will try below. This is the first time since 1999 that I have seen all the major players in a single sector approach such a milestone!
For those who do not know what a Golden Cross is, it is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average. The Golden Cross is by far the premiere technical indicator for bullish activity, far more accurate that any other pattern. Typically technical traders and analysts will use the Simple Moving Averages or SMAs for observing a Golden Cross on the charts, however I prefer to use the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) because they often precede the SMAs in forming the cross.
So now that it has been established the Golden Cross is a significant bullish indicator, how does it relate to the MJ sector?
WELL…….
Pretty much every single MJ stock has formed or is in the process of forming a Golden Cross. One more time…..EVERY SINGLE MJ STOCK I AM HOLDING from MJNA to ERBB to CBIS to SKTO and a few others are in Golden Cross territory. In 2 decades of professional and personal market involvement, I have only ONCE seen an entire sector in this bullish position and that was in 1999 with tech stocks.
I don't think we have even begun to see the gains that are coming to this sector. Just like in 1999, there will be winners and duds. Millions will be lost and even more will be gained. But this exuberance is NOT irrational as it was in 1999. The big difference being that in 1999 nobody really knew what sort of demand there would be for tech/internet services because the industry was brand new. HOWEVER the cannabis market is NOT NEW. It has been around for thousands of years. The demand IS ALREADY THERE. In fact, the demand is so great that for the past 80 years in the USA, people are willing to risk jail time and even death to consume, cultivate and distribute cannabis. THE DEMAND FOR CANNABIS IS THERE AND FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER WE CAN LEGALLY PROFIT FROM IT!!!!!!
Amazing folks. Simply amazing stuff.
ENTIRE MJ SECTOR ENTERING GOLDEN CROSS TERRITORY
I don't think I can stress the significance of this bullish occurrence but I will try below…..
For those who do not know what a Golden Cross is, it is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average. The Golden Cross is by far the premiere technical indicator for bullish activity, far more accurate that any other pattern. Typically technical traders and analysts will use the Simple Moving Averages or SMAs for observing a Golden Cross on the charts, however I prefer to use the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) because they often precede the SMAs in forming the cross.
So now that it has been established the Golden Cross is a significant bullish indicator, how does it relate to the MJ sector?
WELL…….
Pretty much every single MJ stock has formed or is in the process of forming a Golden Cross. One more time…..EVERY SINGLE MJ STOCK I AM HOLDING from MJNA to ERBB to CBIS to SKTO and a few others are in Golden Cross territory. In 2 decades of professional and personal market involvement, I have only ONCE seen an entire sector in this bullish position and that was in 1999 with tech stocks.
I don't think we have even begun to see the gains that are coming to this sector. Just like in 1999, there will be winners and duds. Millions will be lost and even more will be gained. But this exuberance is NOT irrational as it was in 1999. The big difference being that in 1999 nobody really knew what sort of demand there would be for tech/internet services because the industry was brand new. HOWEVER the cannabis market is NOT NEW. It has been around for thousands of years. The demand IS ALREADY THERE. In fact, the demand is so great that for the past 80 years in the USA, people are willing to risk jail time and even death to consume, cultivate and distribute cannabis. THE DEMAND FOR CANNABIS IS THERE AND FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER WE CAN LEGALLY PROFIT FROM IT!!!!!!
Amazing folks. Simply amazing stuff.
Ridiculous? Maybe. Possible? Maybe. Trouble? Not Even.
Sure that gap would be a 50% drop but I do think it is possible. I am adding to an already large position which is bringing up my cost basis some but I am prepared for the possibility of the .0035 gap being covered and will hold some dry powder should that number come to fruition.
PKDaddy, Golden Cross is the Standard Bullish Indicator
The Golden Cross is the absolute most basic yet tried and true bullish technical indicator. As others have stated it is when the 50MA crosses above the 200MA. Most technical traders will use the Simple Moving Averages (SMA) but I prefer to use the Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) because they often precede the SMA Golden Cross. Either way, for me the Golden Cross has been near 100% accurate for establish long positions.
The contrary to the Golden Cross is the Death Cross which is when the 50MA crosses below the 200MA. This is an equally significant indicator of bearish movement. Again the Death Cross has been nearly 100% accurate for me and I made some substantial profit from @APL when the stock entered a Death Cross, dropping from about 500 to 380 in a few short weeks.
As of right now, a large majority of MJ stocks are entering the Golden Cross or have already crossed over. This signals exceptionally bullish outlooks because the ENTIRE SECTOR is in range of the Golden Cross. The last time I saw such positive exuberance was 1999 when the entire tech sector was exploding.
I expect we are on the precipice of a major boom. The black market for cannabis has been estimated at $25-150b annually, a wide variance but even the low figure is significant. That black market is increasingly greying. With only a handful of players establishing themselves, that is a lot of cheese to be spread around. And that $25-150b is ONLY black market figures for traditionally smoked cannabis. The figure does not include medical applications, edible applications, pot tourism, and the real mother of it all….hemp and industrial applications.
The industrial application of hemp is a potentially trillion dollar industry. From plastics to textiles to nutritional supplements to fuels, the uses of hemp are nearly endless.
This is going to be gargantuan!
MJNA - Where It Is and May Be Headed
Currently MJNA share price has steadily risen since Jan 1, 2014 despite what some "professional" analysts say. Notice that same analyst has been AWOL since blowing the play of the year, telling folks to sell cannabis stocks in the months leading up to the Jan 1 MJ market explosion. But that is neither here nor there……
What matters is that MJNA has not had an "explosion" like other MJ equities. MJNA has had a steady upwards climb in share price coupled with exceptionally high volume. Positions are shifting as weak handed longs exit and new positions are established. That is not a parabolic rise, but a good indicator of steady growth. I couldn't be more pleased with my position despite being told one of my buys at .16 was a "dud."
I am pleased with where MJNA presently IS both regarding the equity and the company as a whole. The HempMeds news release today was just fantastic. Considering how muted the CanChew numbers were, I am thrilled that HempMeds has made so much progress in such a short period of time and with a grassroots campaign. The progress will definitely make it much easier to approach large retailers because it shows the demand for these new products.
So that leaves us with where MJNA may be headed. I'm not much for making predictions, especially regarding share price. There are times when it seems obvious that share price will pop such as the Jan 1 recreational legalization in Colorado, but overall, short term price predictions are really a 50-50 guess, either up or down. If I had to guess I would say MJNA is going up long term with some possible short term pullbacks. Despite a bullish outlook, there are several issues that need to be settled. Those issues must be reconciled before any serious institution invests in MJNA.
Here are my concerns:
Lack of a CEO - THIS MUST BE ADDRESSED
Clarity in terms of share structure - there has been endless discussion regarding the A/S, whether it is 950m or 5b. The company needs to make a definitive statement outlining share structure. It is impossible to find a true valuation without knowing how many shares are currently available.
I'd like to hear what the company is doing with the CANV holdings. Obviously this is an extremely sensitive subject because MJNA does not want to disclose that the company is liquidating their CANV position. Such a disclosure would hurt both companies but it still would be good to get some clarity.
The THC issue is something that would be nice to have some insight from the company. With the government relaxing their position regarding cannabis, MJNA could make a bold move disclosing THC revenues from Colorado. This could add some serious fuel to the already hot sector.
Once these issues are addressed, I think MJNA has a great shot of moving into the mainstream and possible to dollar land and beyond. Even without clarity on the above, I think MJNA can make a real run but in order to get to the next level, management needs to get their act together like a real big board company.
That Gap Scares Me
The gap at .0035 is what bothers me. While penny stocks don't typically trade according to technical aspects, gaps tend to be pretty universal through most equities and tend to get filled.
Things are WAY DIFFERENT This Year
Last year around this time MJNA started to ramp up. After buying in the .01 range, at this time last year I dumped about 20% of my MJNA position at .16 followed by another sale of similar volume above .40.
BUT this year is so much different. Notice in the days leading up to the Feb 2013 spike, the volume was active but nothing earth shattering. As the share price increased in early 2013, the volume picked up. Fast forward to today and notice the extremely active volumes of the past few weeks. Even at these higher levels over .20, the volume only increases and to some staggering amounts.
There is a massive amount of buying here.
Equity-wise, MJNA is really showing strength.
Company-wise, the HempMeds 500% increase (or 426%) is absolutely fantastic news. In a few short months, HempMeds is bringing in strong revenue and that is ONLY ONE portion of MJNA's subsidiary business!!!! The exposure HempMeds brings to MJNA's product portfolio is outstanding. This leads me to believe that large health oriented retailers like Whole Foods will take notice.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MJNA&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p87011288587
Thats Me and a Few Others
Buying at .0075
I have already got 750,000 filled. I know of 2 others buying in large lots.
There are some big things brewing with ERBB. As of the new year and after taking profits, I was not going to buy anymore but there is too much in the pipeline for Tranzbyte right now.
123,456 Will Mark the Go
Of some large ERBB buys….
500% Increase Is Just The Beginning
Folks this increase comes on the back of some serious leg work from the HempMeds team. First of all, congratulations for a great effort put forth by HempMeds. What is lacking from the PR about the 500% increase is the fact that it was accomplished through a grassroots campaign.
THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING!
Now that HempMeds is getting the exposure, I would venture a guess that MJNA is not long for a contract with a major health oriented retailer, i.e. Whole Foods, CVS....
In due time, you will be seeing the HempMeds products on store shelves. And that increase will not be a "mere" 500% but will bring in a whopping 10,000% increase. The $1.31m from HempMeds will become several tens of millions.
Congrats to those who weathered the last few months of 2013 when the bashing here was at its worst. For those who bought at .09, WELL DONE!!!
I'll never forget in November when everyone's favorite analyst called my 250k share purchase at .16 a "dud" because it was down 12% to .12!!! HAHAHAAAAA!!! Gee I wonder what the analyst thinks about that purchase now that it is UP 37%. Too bad the analyst is AWOL after muffing the Jan 1 MJ explosion.
"In Place and Generating Money."
Investors will want to get in before the machines are "in place and generating money." Thats the ground floor.
The time to get in is before the revenues start showing up. Ground floor / growth investors look for the future potential. Value investors look for solid revenue numbers. Just like with @APL the time to buy was pre-iTunes, pre-iPods, pre-iPhone when the revenues were still developing.
I think the .25 valuation, or a market cap of $500m is achievable on the machine PR alone. Depending on locations, availability and many other factors, ERBB could get well beyond .25 with the hype.
Of course, this all hinges on the fact that the machines are coming soon. The machines are also already significantly delayed according to Tranzbyte's initial PR announcing the development.
.20 to .25 Pending a PR About Machines
That is my prediction. MD8X is valued at roughly $500m. For ERBB to achieve that market cap, the share price would be in the .20 range. BUT ERBB has a lot of other facets of their business, so the machines would only be part of the revenue. A market cap of $500m on the machines alone is attainable but with other interests, ERBB could become a billion $ company overnight.
I believe that the Yo! / Green Machine should pop ERBB to a $250m valuation at the very least, which would be over .10pps. The proprietary tech for the machines alone could be worth billions. ERBB could be a major national and international player, licensing out machines all over the world. ERBB could also sell off the machine division and technology which would be a major, major, MAJOR event.
Burgess Those Are Good Questions
You are asking the right questions and as a "long", I certainly don't have the answers but here is where I stand. I am investing in the potential of the company and am completely aware of the chance to lose everything. I am okay with that since my ERBB position was paid for a few weeks ago and I am playing with house money.
The Altitude Organics debate is such a dead horse. There is no way that 2 companies in the exact same industry could share the name, even if there are minor changes such as an x instead of c. Nothing posted here has convinced me that Tranzbyte is not the owner of AO. Calling a dispensary is not the answer because if you call KFC, I doubt most of the employees have ever heard of Yum Brands.
Yes the increase in float is concerning but that is what a growing company must do since they do not have access to institutional capital due to the nature of the business.
Where's the revenue? Again a concern but I understand the difficulty reporting any income, again due to the nature of the business. FedEx lost almost $1m per month in their first year of business as do many other major, and minor companies.
Where's the machine?
I'll wait until end of Q1 for that. If it doesn't arrive by then, maybe I will reconsider my position. There certainly has been a delay on the Green Machines. I won't pretend like I know much about vending machines, but I am sure this particular on faces some regulatory issues and the machine sounds more complicated that the typical junk food dispenser. I will also say the medical shop I frequent in LA has had a common vending machine for years. Patients come in specifically to use the machine to buy flowers, tinctures, pre-rolled joints, edibles and other cannabis goods. A sophisticated, networks vending machine could be a gold mine.
I find your claim of not bashing hilarious because of quotes like this "Sure it might pop again but don't actually invest into this company, sho*t it and you'll make money."
"Short it and you'll make money" is NOT a neutral position, it is aggressively negative sentiment. It is also an absolutely deplorable recommendation. Shorting a sub-penny stock is just silly. First of all, most reputable platforms don't allow shorting of a penny stock. Secondly, in order to short an equity you must hold underlying shares otherwise it would be a naked short position. Either that or your broker must own shares to borrow against for shorting. AND even if you do own shares, you may not be able to short. I own several hundred thousand shares of another MJ penny play and since I could not short through my ETrade account despite owning non-margined shares, I had to transfer the shares to my Merrill Lynch account for shorting. Even ML, which my family has banked with for decade, was reticent to allow me to open such a position.
Regardless, shorting a penny stock is really a poor way to make money.
1. Liquidity is always an issue, penny stocks don't trade in the volumes that big board stocks do and closing positions is not always as easy.
2. You have to buy in large lots in order to generate worthwhile returns. Again, the liquidity issues make it difficult to move large lots.
3. The possibility of getting whipsawed in a big move is multiplied by 10 as penny stocks can move 100s of percent in a single day. Check out the stock em n tee r, up 700% in a single day. That would cripple a short position and could put someone in bankruptcy.
IPWT Thats a Difficult Guess
Tripp is an excellent salesman and is quite an energetic speaker. I don't think my "guess" would be any more substantiated than the endless posts about upcoming PRs or announcements. BUT if I must,
I stand by my original assertion that the lawsuit stems from Dixie realizing that the company gave way too much interest to MJNA. The complaints from Dixie in the lawsuit were allowed to lapse for quite some time before Dixie filed suit against MJNA, specifically Dixie's complaint about not being issued the MJNA shares agreed upon in the partnership. The lack of action will certainly not help Dixie's case.
My best guess is that Dixie and MJNA will come to an agreement, perhaps lessening MJNA's 60% stake. Unfortunately, my guess is less based on the meeting with Tripp but more with my knowledge of legal matters. Dissolving the partnership will just add to more legal fees and could even include a full blown lawsuit. Dixie would likely not want to get into a legal tangle with the bigger MJNA no matter how promising Dixie's future prospects may be.
Dtdsmd05, Be Patient, You Will Recoup the Investment
I originally bought 500,000 ERBB shares at .01 and held those for over a year before finally turning a profit.
Of course, I loaded up 15,000,000 shares between .0017 and .003 which turned an even tidier profit when I sold 1/3 nearly 2 weeks ago.
I posted about the buys back in November under the subject "Im giving ERBB until Q2 2014." I have never been entirely confident with ERBB but since I took massive profits on 1/07/2014, I am holding the remaining shares. I expect that if and when the Green Machine arrives ERBB could see substantial gains. The "other" vending machine company has a market cap of $500m. Should ERBB attain that valuation, the share price would be around .20-.25.
I will hold until ERBB sees those share prices and then re-evaluate my holdings.
My Meeting With Tripp
Not quite a dinner with Andre but a very informative meeting.
We discussed the overwhelming demand for Dixie edibles and elixirs and Red Dice's expansion to a larger facility. We also briefly discussed the MJNA/Dixie lawsuit. Obviously, Tripp could not disclose the gory details but he said the arbitration was moving forward and hinted towards a "positive outcome for all parties." Tripp is an interesting individual; he is a great salesman. We also discussed Dixie's expansion to other states and Tripp was again optimistic that the company would be able to license their products in other legal states.
Dixie is on fire. It would be good to keep the partnership.
Colorado and Washington To Make Bong From Idaho
Just a little MJ humor for Friday.
Technically and Fundamentally Unsustainable Without Follow Through
The start of 2014 was explosive for MJ stocks. The long lines outside Colorado's recreational shops provided compelling visual evidence of the strong demand for cannabis and that translated into exuberance for MJ stocks. Notice I did not say "irrational" exuberance because the excitement is not unfounded, just perhaps a little premature.
What the industry needs now in order to keep the momo going is a strong fundamental follow through from one of the darling stocks. The best case scenario would be an excellent Q4 report with a positive forecast. Another plus would be a positive, rock solid, no-fluff, actionable PR. Of course, any positive news from the government regarding a change in MJ policy could also reignite the sector.
I met with Tripp Keber yesterday, one of the key players in a subsidiary of MJNA. We discussed the overwhelming demand for Dixie edibles and elixirs and Red Dice's expansion to a larger facility. We also briefly discussed the MJNA/Dixie lawsuit. Obviously, Tripp could not disclose the gory details but he said the arbitration was moving forward and hinted towards a "positive outcome for all parties." Tripp is an interesting individual; he is a great salesman. We also discussed Dixie's expansion to other states and Tripp was again optimistic that the company would be able to license their products in other legal states.
I'll stand by my claims that 2014 will be unlike any prior year. Last year on MJNA's February pop, I expressed that the stock would likely fade for the rest of the year and sure enough it did. The year before that CBIS did the exact same. However, those previous years did not include Colorado and Washington legalizing the recreational use of cannabis.
At $39pps, MJNA's Holdings are Worth $234,000,000
Thats a whole lot of meatballs. Clearly the market is not properly valuing MJNA because while the account for the shares as income is a little odd, the CANV holding should be reflected in the assets.
"Sure, that $40 price per share looks good, but it's artificial, due to the low float."
Uh, okay but if people are willing to pay $39 per CANV share, THAT IS WHAT IT IS WORTH. Yes, the float is low and daily volume is even lower, so liquidating MJNA's position in CANV is not as easy as say, selling @APL shares but that does not change the value of MJNA's holdings.
Escabar Totally Misstated That
Firstly, it is not a "new" court ruling in California. The state of California did not rule that the federal government can shut down dispensaries.
Secondly, that has ALWAYS BEEN THE CASE. For years Feds have violated CA law by raiding dispensaries because cannabis is illegal federally. When he was elected in 2008, Obama stated he would not intervene with states with medical MJ laws. Of course like the many promises he broke, under Obama the Feds nearly doubled their raids.
Thirdly, good luck with that federal government. Good luck raiding dispensaries while MJ acceptance is at an all time high. That should go over really well.
States rights and reducing the power of the federal government is a major platform for the Republican Party. They will have an exceptionally hard time promoting the states rights/smaller federal govt and at the same time, promoting federal raids in states who have declared the desire for cannabis. However this is the "right to life", anti-abortion party who also believes in the death penalty and war mongering. It is also the party of the rich oil/defense folks but somehow presents itself as the party of the average American. Go figure.
Greens, It Has Little to Do With "Shorts"
Shorting doesn't kill a rally. In fact, shorting often exacerbates a rally as short nibbling follow by covering can add fuel to the fire. With penny stocks, shorting is far more difficult especially for the retail traders which make up most of the penny volume. In fact, it is the flippers, weak hands and day trading longs who dump into strength that cause the stocks to recede.
The rally was also killed because it was unsustainable without fundamental follow through. Don't get me wrong, the hype is far from unfounded, as evidenced by the longs lines outside shops in Colorado but that sort of excitement is short lived. Fortunately, markets don't trade on past performance, it is future potential that brings investment capital.
Yet, I don't think the fades will be similar to the previous years. In early 2013 when I created my iHub account, I warned that MJNA would likely fade throughout the year just as CBIS had done the year before. BUT in 2014, there are such drastic advancements that I believe we are on the precipice of a major movement. The marijuana trade is emerging from the recesses of a black market into a legal marketplace. Colorado is just the first step in the long journey to full federal legalization. Additionally, in 2014 the USA has mid-term elections where undoubtedly not only will marijuana legalization be addressed but many states will have medical and recreational initiatives on their ballots.
I'd expect some sideways/downward drifting for a few weeks until earnings. I am sure an excellent report from one of the sector leaders could renew the excitement and an ground-breaking PR could reinvigorate the sector. The folks on the ERBB board are looking for a press release about the company's long overdue vending machines. Should ERBB execute on this effort, the company could easily be valued around $2-5b depending on how many locations are secured in Colorado. If ERBBB/Tranzbyte can expand the machine nationwide, then a $20b market cap would be a conservative estimate, putting the equity around $10pps
$4 is Unrealistic but NOT Impossible
If the Yo! Machine is real and operational, then $4 is a possibility. MD8X is valued around $500m. For ERBB to achieve that market cap the stock would be roughy .20-.25pps.
However, if the Yo! Machine and Card take off, a market cap of $5-10b is very possible.
Gaps Everywhere
The MJ industry has clearly had a great start to the year. Obviously seeing massive lines outside recreational shops was a visual reference of the demand for cannabis, as if many of us were not aware of this already.
The New Years boom has left gaps on all the charts for almost all MJ stocks. It looks inevitable that these gaps will be filled. Ideally, it would be nice to see the gaps filled soon, possibly before earnings or any game changing PRs.
Close the .055 Gap?
It looks like the MJ sector as a whole will pullback to the gaps. CBIS has a gap at .055 that will be closed. Ideally CBIS and other MJ stocks will close their gaps soon. By the time those gaps are closed, a good earnings report or PR could set the whole industry off.
.0035 Gap Cover?
Absent a groundbreaking PR, I don't see any reason ERBB will not cover that gap. Once that gap is covered, the liftoff could resume.
Of course, penny stocks do not always follow technical indicators but it would appear that gap is unavoidable.
Cutting Edge or Bleeding Edge
Which side of history will you be on? There are some amazing things in the works here.
Can't We Get Rid Of That Guy?
Seriously. Is there not enough evidence that he doesn't belong in this sector, nor the finance realm entirely? Failed all the way to message boards and STILL continues to fail. Is this what "MJ Stock Analysis" needs, a loud mouth attention seeker who takes advantage of the less initiated an refuses to dialog with those he knows own his types?
Too Little, Too Late After Way Too Much
That's a nice fluffy article to appease the readership although it does nothing for me since it merely repeats all the aspects that made me a small fortune this new year. I think that article might have been useful any time before December 31, 2013. The past 2 new years have been a treat for me with CB!S in Feb 2012, MJNA in 2013 and now the whole sector in 2014. I can't wait for 2015!!!
As for the blogger, the fluffy article doesn't change the fact that he is vastly underqualified to be analyzing cannabis, lacking any industry experience from a movement that's been going on all our lives.
As MJNA share price increases it will become harder to manipulate. The second major institutions start bringing analysts to the game, SA will be marginalized.
CBIS - GOLDEN CROSS - Major Bullish Indicator
The 50sma is about to overtake the 200sma. Technically this is about the most simple bullish signal. With all the recent attention paid to the MJ industry this golden cross could be just what CBIS needs to push back to the Feb 2012 highs and beyond.
Pennies stocks don't always trade according to technicals due to a lack of steady volume but the recent daily trading volume may change that. This could be a great setup going into earnings
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CBIS&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p02826178730
Banks and Institutions ARE ALREADY Involved
Here in California where cannabis is ONLY medically legal, the dispensary I frequent uses US Bank to process Visa and MasterCard. The shop has a full-on Point Of Sale card swiper not some iPhone square deal. For all those who reference the Controlled Substances Act or any other theory, please explain to me how banks and institutions are not accepting THC based revenues when I can purchase weed with a MasterCard or Visa thanks to US Bank.......
MJNA Has Got Moving, Up Nearly 100 % YTD
And YTD is a mere 1.5 weeks in this case. Much of the reason MJNA hasn't rocketed 300% like others is that it has had more exposure than many of the high fliers that money has been shifting toward, along with the fact it's market cap is considerable when looking at reported revenues.
20,000,000 daily volume is pretty high considering just a few weeks ago 6,000,000 was adv.
A positive PR would do wonders but I'm not holding my breath. In fact any solid PR would do the sector some good. Bloomberg, even Fox and CNN have all aired stories about the explosion in pot stocks since the new year. Of course, any new interest is greeted by relentless negativity from SA.
A real kicker would be a good Q1 from MJNA. Here's a classy way they could get it done:
A PR, not only stating the earning release date but also a conference call on that same date. That could build up some excitement going into earnings and if MJNA could follow up with a good report, plus some good fundamental clarity sprinkled with positive forecasts.......we could have a legit investment here.
If SK3 Fins and Potential Are Real....
SKTO is trading way below book value. If the fins are correct then SKTO should be valued at least $100m and .25pps
Any current long term buyers here, like myself, are pure speculators. I live in LA and have seen nothing on the dispensary level. None of the shop owners I have talked to have heard of nor been approached by anyone from Medical Greens looking for management contracts/assistance/services or products to sell. The Yak products may be a NorCal edible. Believe it or not, the cannabis movement is still pretty localized and products are not often available statewide. I believe the Dharmanol may hold value but that product needs to come to market. So many strange variables but a little bit of traction is all the company needs.
The PharmaJanes thing is fascinating. I live in CA and the thought of buying cannabis online is an amazing prospect. I have bought weed with my AmEx but never online. I will let others be the test market for this though before I willingly hand register an account and hand over my credit card info. I'm not sure if SK3 has any ownership rights to PharmaJanes, especially proprietary software/digital framework, but there seems to be value there at least in the "royalty" structure for sales generated from SK3 managed collectives.
Other than that, there's a wacky conference call, along with a quote from the soon to be political heavyweight Lt Gov and some fluffy PRs about hundreds of managed dispensaries. A while ago there was talk about a Larry King interview but that seems to have yet to be produced. C'mon Larry don't make ask you about Kevin Allyn/SK3 Group next time I see you at the newsstand on Beverly Drive or dropping the kids at school in BH. Ha!
And that's about all the DD one can do on SKTO.
Give It Up Already People
Enough with the Dixie / MJNA THC revenue speculation already. Not one single person here has provided compelling evidence that MJNA is OR is not profiting from THC.
YES there is a lawsuit between Dixie and MJNA which likely has an ulterior interest in the THC revenue question. From what I have seen in the filings and from what I have been told by several corporate lawyers with whom I have discussed this issue, Dixie is likely suing MJNA in order to dissolve and partnership BECAUSE DIXIE WILL BE REQUIRED TO SHARE COLORADO THC REVENUES WITH MJNA now that recreational legalization has occurred.
YES MJNA disclosed during an earnings PR that the company does not profit from the direct sales of THC but does have licensing agreements in place. This is extremely fuzzy wording. For example, the company that makes the plastic containers to hold medical marijuana sold at the dispensary I frequent in LA does not DIRECTLY PROFIT from the THC sales, but the container maker DOES see an increase in business, in turn profits because of the THC being sold. As do the landlords who rent the retail space. As does Staple where the dispensary buys paper/office products. As do the nearby cafes who have new customers from the dispensary employees and customers……..none of those businesses DIRECTLY PROFIT from THC sales but there are residual profits which are likely similar to MJNA's "licensing" revenue.
This is like the argument that banks and institutions are not allowed to take THC profits or transactions. I can tell you from FIRST HAND KNOWLEDGE the dispensary I frequent in Los Angeles has POS credit card machines, NOT iPads with Square card scanners but full blown retail Point Of Sale credit card readers. The dispensary owner explained that US Bank handles their transactions. The dispensary accepts Mastercard and Visa. THEREFORE despite claims that banks and institutions cannot be involved under the Controlled Substances Act…..US Bank, Visa and Mastercard are very much seeing INDIRECT REVENUE FROM THC SALES. Imagine that!
If you want to make money from THC sales, go buy an ounce of kush and try to sell it. Otherwise you are just guessing that whatever "better investments" you found are profiting from THC.
We'll Done MJNA_Baggie
While I don't mean to discourage day trading MJNA, I find the endeavor to be somewhat less than ideal for the following reasons.
MJNA, and most pennies are not entirely liquid meaning there really isn't that much daily volume. With stocks like @APL or S!RI there are so many global players that you can always move a chunks of share. Despite being one of the more active pennies, MJNA still trades somewhat sporadically with variances in bid/asks and volume levels. If I were day trading MJNA, because it is a penny stock I would be focusing on moving big volume lots but that is not so easy to move due to the issues above.
This, of course, is only my personal take. It's great to hear of people like you who are having success day trading MJNA. That activity only helps a grown equity like MJNA despite what some say because you bring liquidity to the stock.
I don't think selling all you position was a bad move at all. With these MJ penny plays that seems to work pretty well. However like you said, MJNA and the entire sector are gaining significant momentum. I don't think here's any real urgency to get in but it is possible we may never see single pennies again.
I recommend buying before Q1 earnings. I don't want to hype Q1 earnings up too much because in all likelihood it will not be anything spectacular but I believe it is the most significant event to come after the Jan 1 CO recreational legalization and before the upcoming mid-term elections.
Greens He Don't Know Nuthin
If his stock analysis was worth a dime, he wouldn't be slumming on message boards for readership on his website, he would be in St. Baarths right now with my investment banking friends or in Mallorca on a client's yacht.
So many good points have been made as to what a fraud he is;
In the same way he claims the "marijuana" in the MJNA company name is deceptive, so is his use of 420 for his website. He knows it is a trigger to catch people's attention but I can guarantee the term 420 was not part of his vocabulary until he realized he could resurrect his floundering finance career by flooding the sector with his presence. Thanks to poster Sugar for that tidbit.
And Doc killed it by calling out the fact that he completely agrees with one company blowing out their A/S times three but is absolutely unforgiving in saying another company has way too many O/S.
Those are huge red flags to me but that is only the beginning. A church going person in Houston is not someone I would say is qualified to analyze cannabis markets. And Houston, Texas is about as far from a hotbed of cannabis culture as possible. But then there's the call from the past months to stay out of the cannabis stocks while most equities were at 52-week lows only to see the same equities explode 100-1000%.
We had the rats on the run. No need to bait them back.
I've seen these types with @APL over the years and exposed them on message boards. Of course, being completely shameless individuals, they will return at the first opportunity, EVEN AFTER SAYING THEY WILL STOP POSTING. Spineless.
Fung You're Missing My Point
Firstly, thanks to Doc K for the edited reposting. I'm not willfully ignoring the iHub TOS, I'm just new to being censored for my opinions.
I'm an not discussing anyone's predictions. I am discussing how individuals are using the cannabis industry hype for duplicitous self promotion and specifically targeting MJNA to achieve those means. Look other MJ company boards on iHub, the total followers on other boards are less than 1/3 of MJNA's followers, so this board becomes the pulpit for publicity.
These individuals do not have a background in the cannabis industry. Nor are they successful in the financial industry. Nor are they even located in an area relevant to the cannabis movement.
MJNA has enough of an uphill battle with legality issues, putting forth positive marketing efforts and 80 years of propaganda against their main products. Now all you read about MJNA in the extremely limited press is negative SA articles and message board posts.
Ironically, since the Colorado New Years event, CNN and other more mainstream media are taking notice of companies like MJNA, hopefully generating new interest in the cause and business. Of course, barely a day after the positive press, any newly interested parties looking for more information are greeted by a negative SA article by a "known" individual.
Now I'm not blaming anyone for "bringing down" MJNA or the sector. And I am not ready to concur with some of the P&D or short/distort theories going around. But I will say the constant negative speculation and dark cloud of information being circulated has certainly not helped MJNA. Not that the company doesn't have its due criticism, but MJNA should be allowed to grow organically without being suffocated by negative, speculative, unqualified media reports.
MJNA - New Year, New Outlook
2014 got off to a great start for the cannabis movement. There has always been a market for marijuana but it was truly remarkable to see lines out the door made up of first time buyers, grandparents and out of state tourists, among so many others. The first week or so of sales appears to have been incredibly successful on many accounts from sales to non-violence to excitement. Colorado's recreational legalization is a dream come true for many and the reality is only finally setting in.
So where does that leave MJNA for 2014?
Let's clear the bad out of the way so this can end on a good note.
Currently MJNA is fundamentally in a bit of a funk. The company is lacking a dedicated CEO which is disconcerting as a shareholder. A lot of time has passed since the CEO position was vacated. There has been a lot of speculation regarding this matter which I will discuss in a few paragraphs.
Not having a CEO is a pressing issue right now. Another concern is an SEC investigation which MJNA disclosed several months ago. While government bureaucracies move slowly, had the SEC discovered material offenses, they would have acted by now. It is also pretty doubtful that FINRA made any friends with their blanket "warning" about investing in publicly traded cannabis companies only months before the stocks exploded.
Either way, it is doubtful that MJNA faces any serious regulatory issues, especially regarding THC generated sales. Currently, MJNA maintains the company does not profit from direct THC sales. However, MJNA also owns 60% or Red Dice Holdings (RDH), the company responsible for Dixie THC products. MJNA, like other publicly traded companies, uses the term "licensing" in regards to any revenue that may be linked to THC. Again, there is a lot of speculation here which will be address below.
The third bit nagging MJNA is the lawsuit between them and Dixie. The dispute failed to entice the courts and therefore is tied up in arbitration. Once again there is a lot of speculation here. Dixie contends that MJNA did not fulfill MJNA's contractual obligations and therefore MJNA has no ownership rights to Dixie. MJNA has countered saying that Dixie has not provided revenues due. The legal action is pretty standard fare for business disputes so speculation is quite silly because the answers will be revealed at the end of arbitration.
Aside from those 3 issues, MJNA is facing normal growing pains. There has been rampant speculation about how MJNA has accounted for shares issued by CANV and the value of those shares, especially in relation to MJNA's value. Is MJNA selling these shares for capital? Are the shares properly valued? This issue is somewhat contentious and you either trust the company or not based in their accounting for the CANV shares. Certain popular, but severely underqualified media sites and individuals have maintained a constant cloud of negativity about the company. Hopefully some of the recent activity and the horrendous trading calls from these groups has helped highlight (more like lowlight) their true motivations. There has also been discussion about MJNA's product quality due to a disgruntled employee which I will not even address because of the absurdity (something endlessly touted by the aforementioned groups).
To finally address the wild speculation that occurs here and on other less than reputable sites, I base my investment/trading on the company's official statements and my own due diligence. I equate this speculation to watching a person drive past you on the street and trying to analyze their motivations, social status, destination, what they have in the car........it's all a guess no matter how educated. That's the risk of the markets.
Now that the negativity has been addressed, let's shine some light on MJNA and the greying black market of cannabis.
In the last half of 2013, MJNA had some major product advancements. Although CanChew sales were insignificant, MJNA has brought this product to market. Hopefully CanChew will be able to bring down development costs once domestic hemp production goes online. MJNA also started a massive marketing effort through HempMedsPX. So far this marketing effort appears to be a great success and the exposure has been growing.
Many of those products marketed through HempMeds are CBD creams, oils, lotions and more. MJNA is one of the leaders in CBD products. For years marijuana has been all about THC but recent medical discoveries have shown CBDs to hold significant medical properties. CBDs not only hold medical value but the compound also has nutritional and other supplemental qualities. Not only is there pharmaceutical potential with MJNA's CBD products, but the cosmetic and nutritional values could open doors to retail such as Whole Foods, Sephora or even Target to name a few.
Another exciting prospect comes from legal THC sales. As previously mentioned, MJNA contends the company does not profit directly from THC sales but the company also holds a 60% interest in Red Dice, proprietor of the Dixie brand, one of Colorado's leading THC product makers. The new recreational legalization will open doors to legally capitalizing on cannabis. As recently as this past week, delegates and legislators in Colorado have begun demanding the federal government amend the Controlled Substances Act to allow banking to get involved with marijuana based businesses (http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2014/01/10/sen-michael-bennet-pushes-departments-of-justice-treasury-to-allow-marijuana-businesses-access-to-banking/104638/). These changes could unleash a flood of investment capital inaccessible under current laws.
Existent cannabis prohibition laws are perhaps the biggest impedance to the massive expansion coming to the legal cannabis industry. Along with the banking issues from the Controlled Substances Act, marijuana is still illegal is half the states in the US. But that is rapidly changing. It is likely that California will be introducing recreational legalization initiatives during this years mid-term elections with many other states considering medical and recreational legalization. MJNA is based in California so relaxing the cannabis prohibition laws in CA could open doors.
One of the reasons the Dixie lawsuit is so innocuous is that MJNA could find numerous other THC brands to partner with should the relationship with Dixie dissolve. Regardless, MJNA stands to benefit greatly and may already draw revenue from THC sales. To add to the speculation about the MJNA/Dixie lawsuit, it is very likely Dixie is unhappy with any THC revenue sharing provisions with MJNA that may have been part of a contractual obligations.
From an equity standpoint, MJNA has also stated the company is actively pursuing uplisting options for the equity. There has been quite some hold up, specifically regarding proper accounting procedures. The company will hopefully provide some insight in the first quarter earnings report.
And that's the next major step for MJNA and pretty much all cannabis companies, first quarter earnings. Has the HempMeds effort grown the business? Will there be upcoming THC revenues? Has any progress been made in the CEO search? What is MJNA doing with the CANV holding? There are many questions to be addressed. Unfortunately, MJNA needs to work on their disclosure and at some point it would be nice to have a long discussed shareholder meeting.
Regardless, 2014 has been a great start for the burgeoning cannabis industry and MJNA. The stock is up nearly 100% from recent lows. Over the past three years, publicly traded cannabis entities tend to pop in the first quarter and fade through out the year. However, I sincerely believe this year may be different. PEOPLE, ONE OF THE UNITED STATES JUST LEGALIZED MARIJUANA! That is an enormous advancement! Absolutely enormous! And then there will be mid-term elections with the potential for easing of other state's laws. These are the first steps to full blown legalization and who knows where we go from there.
So is MJNA a buy, sell or hold? I'd say buy. I don't think there is any real need to rush into MJNA but with a potentially solid quarter and excellent future prospects, I would not hesitate to commit a reasonable amount of capital. Of course there are risks of a total loss and covering the short side of MJNA is difficult, so I would certainly only commit a comfortable sum. Day trading MJNA is also difficult due to liquidity issues with large volumes and again, the lack of ease covering the short side via short sales of the stock and lack of any derivative plays. Take profits and recoup your investment quickly and let the rest ride if you can.
Disclosure:
I am long MJNA shares. Those shares have been paid for since the February 2013 pop. I repurchased around 250,000 shares in September. I did not sell any MJNA during the Jan 2014 pop. I did sell portions of my ERBB, SKTO and CBIS holdings to recoup investment costs and take profits.
Newmedman I Agree With Everything BUT
You are correct that there is no short cabal or blogger to blame or congratulate for the recent action. And it's nobody's fault but their own for not selling. I played the explosion perfectly by pulling out enough to pay for every single position but still keep some skin in the game. I have built some extremely large positions over the past few years and I'm pretty happy with the publicly traded cannabis stocks.
What I am not happy about and where I differ in opinion is that Alan has done nothing but comment negatively about many of these companies, MJNA specifically. He sprinkles in totally backhanded comments like "MJNA could do well if..." or "I'd be willing to get on board but..." but those comments are just to sucker in subscribers. He has used all the positive attention from MJNA to boost his status as cannabis stock connoisseur, effectually deflating all the good vibes generated by MJNA. How are people supposed to get good info on MJNA or cannabis stocks when Alan Clownstein is the highest profile source?
The guy was a failure in NYC. He is a failure today in Houston as exhibited by his complete whiff on Jan 1.
I Do Find It Pretty Comical
It was barely a month ago when I started laying into Alan to much dismay of the folks here. I smelled a rat with Alan after his first article. He's not cannabis friendly he's just exploiting the lack of exposure to the sector.