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Picked up a VXX 41c position at .99 for next week. Fed protection as I am net long here
We didn’t get the gap up, but we used the gap down to exit our 12/17 2.65p @ 3.09 from 1.70 (2x). We rolled our 12/14 265c closing them at .35 (1.15 loss 1x) and purchased 12/21 266c @ 1.45.
SPY 12/14 265c @ 1.40 1x (rolled to 12/21 266c at 1.45)
SPY 12/17 265p @ 1.70 2x (sold at 3.09)
SPY 1/4/19 269c @ 2.50 3x
Will look to add some VXX calls near end of day for next week
I use multiple time frames from weekly to 15m. No one fractal is the gospel for me. All depends on how far my calls / puts are out. When you have a call position that expires the next day you can hardly use the daily chart imo.
And we look like we will get our first close above the 5d on the 60m in the final hour of trading. 5d should be just about flat on the 60m at the close IF we close here (ish)
I see a gap up tomorrow maybe a high of 2680 before we fade.
I’ve got the following positions
SPY 12/14 265c @ 1.40 1x
SPY 12/17 265p @ 1.70 2x
SPY 1/4/19 269c @ 2.50 3x
You too! JAN calls will pay from here.. just need some patience
5d moving average starting to flatten out on the 60m chart. We could see a close above that 5d with a 60m candle. This should curve the 5d up... all this would be bullish for this afternoon. Looking at some 12/14 266s if the above plays out
Agreed... always some wiggle room with time.
I’ve been in some 1/4/19 270s at 2.50 that are in the green. Bought 12/17 265p at a hedge at 1.70 which have been paying.
Feeling pretty good about these.. may scalp some 12/21s on either side of the chance arrises , but this feels like chop until FOMC Monday
Can’t get down with calls until 2655 clears.. and ideally a close above the 5d on the 60m chart.
They’re only bullish after a down trend AND a confirmation of a reversal ... which this one had. Reverse hammers without confirmation are bearish. So while that one indicated and bullish reversal it was in fact bearish the day it printed (prior to confirmation)
The daily candles of yesterday and today look a lot like 11/20 & 11/21. Two bearish red tall wick candles. This was followed by a gap down 11/23 with a VERY bearish reverse hammer. Yet this was followed a gap up to 2650 on 11/26 followed by a move to 2800 in just 6 trading sessions (150 points)
I’m feeling a very similar repeat here... bearish chop latter part of this week.. gap down FED Monday followed by a huge move the rest of the week.
How can anyone say “I have no doubt” about anything positive with IPIX. The chart says it all... down 90%+++
Very true on the 5d. Like it on the daily but love it on the hourly chart. Where the 5d points on the 60m is usually very telling
That fed meeting will offer the near term bottom imho
Futures just flipped a U and are now positive
263.17 lols like it may not get another look today! 267 just printed pre market. Good luck Net... and stay neutral!
Would fill that old gap in SPY way down near 180. Lol
I agree.
I am not a Fibonacci expert, but I use them for bigger picture movement and levels for potential pivot.
If we can clear 2650 I see a bounce to 2730 possible, but we likely pivot there to test 2607. If 2607 doesn’t hold on a closing basis 2550 is the next level I’m watching.
These are derived using fib %s of the October drop (2941 to 2603) and the recent high off that low 2815.
2607 from 2815 is .618 of the Oct drop
2550 from 2815 is .786 of the Oct drop
2478 from 2815 is 1.00 of the Oct drop
None of this is gospel in my mind, but in volatile times like this I find them helpful
The boyz have been chewing em up and spitting em out this week.
I look forward to your Sunday thoughts.
Stay Neutral.
A close below the your 2018 OE pivot!
Well, there’s the bounce at the double bottom low. Could set up a pretty nice W pattern on the 60m.
If I step in anywhere it will be at the close. This could easily fall apart and breakthrough the October lows on a closing basis. Would need a wicked rally into close to get my interest and I don’t see it
Would love a look at a 2625 double B today.
Finally... we agree
Nobody owes you anything either.
There is literally no difference between you and those you complain about.
I’m confused. So “Dow will fall through 24000” with nothing to support it other than “market action” is “knowing the markets” ?
I’m struggling to see the supreme value in your post vs any others
Trying to bounce right at the .618 retrace level using yesterday’s low and this mornings high.
Agree. I don’t / very rarely follow a trader in a trade. That said.. I don’t make a habit of going long if he posts short ideas or vice - versa
Futures Red to Green
Hoping to cash an roll my 12/14 270c today.
I see SPX 2720 today if NFP cooperates.
Happy trades today folks
How’s this investment holding up? Lol
Didn’t feel good most of the day, but I cashed SPX 12/7 2690p at 45.00 from 17.00. These paid for lost calls for 12/5 and 12/7 with some profit to spare.
Rolled those into SPY 12/14 270c @ 1.95. Sold 1/3 at 2.80 for .85 gain... holding the rest.
Today’s VXX/VIX candle on the daily is looking tired AF and right at resistance.
Happy trades
I get it... tough environment to win consistently in. You’ll get it back tomorrow !
The VIX candle printing today looks like we should bounce into tomorrow. Just my $.02
Trimming here...
STC 1/3 12/14 270c @ 2.80 from 1.95
Ouch... should’ve held!
Tough sledding out there..
BTO 12/14 270c @ 1.95
Yikes... takes guts to jump in here! Good luck. I’m still sitting on some calls that my SPX puts paid for, but not adding... yet
Sold the 12/7 SPX 2690p @ 45 from 17
Hedge paid for my 12/7 and 12/14 calls... but they could expire worthless.
Still a nice hedge
Crazy.. down 50 handles. Hope this holds up. Have SPX 12/7 2690p from 17.00 as a hedge that I would love to cash on or add 12/14 calls against.
If looking at his first chart in the post you’re responding to it shows he predicts a move to ATHd in DEC.. should see said price hit near the end of next week.
I’m not speaking for NN or even saying I think this will happen . I’m just interpreting the chart you asked about.
Good luck