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Here's my predictions for the day/week:
Today (From most likely to least likely):
A) Gap UP to ~1.45. Small run up to ~1.50, then drop back down to current levels. Linger there for a bit, then make a run EOD back to 1.50~1.60
B) Open at current levels, bounce around for a bit, then make a run up to ~1.50 EOD
C) Open at current levels, bounce around for a bit, then make another drop down to 1.25~1.30 and bounce there for a bit before running up tomorrow
This week:
Overall, I think we're going to grind our way back up to around the 1.75 ~ 2.00 range. But I don't think it'll be a straight shot back up. I think we'll kind of grind our way slowly up there.
Should be a good week here! Happy trading
Ah, I may have misunderstood. What I took away from his posts was:
1. The price is a bit too high right now and needs to consolidate a bit before it moves up.
2. There's less people in general looking at this stock. Not less % traded per day, but just less people overall. And because of that, it's less likely for there to be a big institution pulling out its money, less likely for some short person/group to write a hit piece for Seeking Alpha, and so on.
Anyway, I agree that every stock has its own characteristics. And this one has been, and should continue to be, a great growth and trading stock. I think we can all agree on that
Hope you're having a good weekend too!
Nice posts and links guys! Fannie and Freddie seem to me to be quite obviously heavily influenced by HFT/Algo trading.
I see this as both a blessing and a curse to us mere mortals. On the one hand, the OTC and/or HFT makes getting an order filled stressful at times. Like today, I placed an order a couple 2~3 minutes before close at the ASK price. Luckily, it finally did get filled, but I didn't get notified until like 30 seconds AFTER the close. And on the big crash/bounce of this last run, I lost out on ~20% because my sell near the top of the first bounce didn't go through and I cancelled and waited until the 2nd bounce. Hard to say if that's all HFTs fault. The OTC itself seems a bit sketchy.
On the plus side, this stock has some movements that are extremely predictable. And we can use that to our advantage. I don't know if this advantage will last forever. Most likely the trading algorithms will eventually evolve to become less predictable. But at least currently, you can bank on things like this stock making a huge spike up, then a huge crash and a huge bounce every so often. Seems to happen like clockwork.
It's like ants at a picnic. We may not be able to BBQ, but if we know where the food ends up we can still feast like kings
I'm with adeezl on this.
Although I don't hold any of them for more than a few days at a time, I consider myself long on all 3D printing. And I think XONE has a great niche going with metals. And I'm sure that long term it'll continue to go up, do a R/S, and all that jazz.
But, the price on this has doubled in ~3 months. Not even once has it tried to test the daily 50 MA. That's great! But it can't last forever. At some point it has to take a breather.
On top of just a gut feeling that this needs to consolidate a bit here, there's a lot of chart indicators that say we may slow down for a bit:
- The weekly RSI is about to breach 70 again.
- The last 4 daily bars all topped out squarely at 52
- The daily RSI has lower peaks while the price moved up
- The daily MACD histogram has lower peaks
- The daily Stochastics has lower peaks
- The daily +DI has lower peaks
- The daily pSAR is getting close to flipping
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying I think it'll fall on it's face or anything. It may just develop a sideways channel for a bit. But I'd be really surprised if we reach 60 without some kind of consolidation first.
Yeah, I'd love to see the real short count too. Gonna be fun when they cover
I ended up just holding. It could drop a little more, but I doubt much. I think next week will bring a nice big bounce. The Fannie chart still has a gap to close ~2.20. Would be sweet if we closed that!
Have a good weekend everyone!
It could go down there first, but it looks to me like we bounced off the hourly 300 MA at 1.45. So, the bottom could already be in.
Either way, we still have a gap to close up around 2.20. Hoping this bounce takes us there
Picked up some at 1.40. Gonna give this a go. Looks like we're bouncing off Fannie's hourly 300 MA at 1.46...I hope
Does anyone know why this has fallen so far over the last month?
Well played. 53 is a boss exit!
I think things will straighten up here soon. On top of the shares that were freed up, the market's down and the VIX is up 8%.
I suspect we'll stabilize a bit down here before we head back up. But I can't imagine this getting too much lower.
Picked up some today at 14.85. Can't believe it fell down here again. Can't imagine it'll last for long.
Picked some up at 34.10. Looking good here!
While all of that is true, during the last big run in March/April the daily 25 MA ended up being the bottom support. Until we close below that, I remain optimistic it'll hold.
It's cool man. You don't have to take my word for how this will play out. But as the days/weeks/months roll by continue to refer back to my breakdown of how this stock moves and see how close I was, just for the fun of it.
As a quick recap, I think the up/down movement per day will continue to tighten, and then there will be another big run AND another big crash after that run, and then right back to the up and down days we've been having.
That's my best guess anyway...
The 50 and 100 day moving averages are around the $39~40 dollar range, and moving up. Since this took off in the beginning of 2012, the price has only dipped below those lines twice, and we just got done with one of those periods. The 200 day moving average is at $34 and moving up. It proved to be rock bottom support during this last fall.
In the short term, it looks like we could dip a bit. I think $40, or low 40s, is a realistic target for entry. If the market really takes a dump, I think rock bottom would probably be $35~36. That's been an area of resistance in the past and it should serve as support now. But, it's also possible that this $44~50 channel we're in now will hold up. Time will tell...
And I agree with adeezl. I doubt we'll ever see low 30s again and 60 seems quite doable down the line.
Good luck!
That could be a very nice move for SSYS!
It'll be interesting to see how 3D printing develops for home users. There's a lot of interesting small players in the mix there.
It's hard to say how the next run will go for sure. However, it's worth pointing out that the run from ~35 cents to $1.45 was extremely similar to this recent run. It had almost no resistance and a big spike down after it hit the top. That just seems to be the way this thing trades.
If that pattern does occur again, be ready to milk it for all it's worth
That's one tasty looking chart!
I've been wondering about that lately, now that we're solidly over $1. Do you happen to know if there's been any talk about uplisting and/or what requirements have to be met to get uplisted?
Yes, consolidation. That's what happens after big runs. Watch as the price movement continues to get tighter up until the next run.
No, it fell because it went up 600% in 12 trading days. We're in a consolidation phase now.
You guys are hilariously transparent with all your doom-n-gloom posts. But like Nitwit pointed out earlier, it really doesn't matter what any of us say. This is running on much bigger money than I suspect any of us here are working with.
Good luck!
By "down in the dumps" I meant this being on the OTC and trading in cents and single-digit dollars vs where it used to be.
Speaking of which, I haven't kept up with all of the news on this. Now that we're over a dollar, has there been any serious talk about up-listing? Does anyone happen to know what criteria is needed to do that?
Yeah, I get how it can feel that way. As for you, while I certainly can't predict the future, if you're still holding I think you'll be ok. The chart pattern will play out again and there will be another run, and then another drop after that run. When and how high are the only question. Good luck!
You keep using that term, pump and dump, but I don't think you understand how those really work. So let me explain.
A pump and dump is when some small group of people find a stock that's barely traded and load up a bunch of shares first. Then they send out emails, and post on blogs, etc. and drive up interest. Then over a few days as interest grows they sell off their cheap shares, bail, and move onto their next target.
Freddie and Fannie aren't like that. They're not some business with a terrible idea and no money, or a "development stage" shell company, etc. They pull in billions of dollars. The only reason they're down in the dumps here with stocks like that is because of their situation with the govt.
Moreover, this stock wasn't preloaded by some group to dump on rubes for a few days. Millions of dollars trade every day and it's been steadily growing in price for several months now. That's not how pump and dumps work.
Why the big spike in price? And why the crash you may ask? Simple. The market makers that run this stock trade using a computer algorithm. In case you weren't aware, the market makers buy and sell these stocks too. That's how they make the market. So, just like us average people, they want to make money too. Anyway, the algorithm running this seems to have a pattern:
1. Let the price spike way up (They stop selling and buy too)
2. Spike the price back down (They stop buying and sell/short)
3. Shake people out up and down until it settle back into a flat line
4. Repeat
You can see this pattern over and over with this stock. But now that it's getting more attention and money, the movements are larger. But you can see the smaller spikes, drops, and flat lines if you look back at the chart over the past years.
Well, I hope that helped clear things up
Yeah, same here. It was nice to see it pop today though. I'd rather see 3D be a bit more volatile up here rather than another big retrace like they had a few months ago.
Yeah, I think overall we're looking pretty good here.
One thing I noticed about the algo running this is that if you imagine the gapped section moved down to connect, the price action from May 28th to today looks A LOT like a super-sized version of the movement on May 15th to May 20th. Check out the 30 or 60 minute chart to see the similarity. And at the end of today, I think we look similar to the middle of the day on May 17th. If that pattern holds, we could be close to the next big run.
Wishful thinking anyway...
Yeah, I guess in hindsight I should've seen the Friday sell-off happening. But we were looking so good there for a minute that I got all optimistic.
On the plus side, at least they didn't completely break the chart. We're still in the upper BBand on the hourly chart. Hopefully on Monday we start moving back up.
You think so? I was optimistic up until a few minutes ago. But now, not so much.
Well, it was looking good for a minute there. Still hoping for a strong close.
Here we go!
I think it's about to get interesting. The key thing I'm watching right now is if Fannie can break through the 15 minute 100 MA. If so, then it's on.
LOL! That sounds about spot on. Congress is a sad sack these days...
Right on. Looked like a nice day to trade the triplets.
It'll be interesting to see how the jobs numbers are and how the market does tomorrow. I'm slightly optimistic it'll be a good day, but only slightly.
Oh yeah, I agree. This turn around is just beginning. I think it'll hit the 20s again fairly soon.
I just meant that I probably missed out on getting in at those lows.
Yeah, I think we're looking good here.
I don't think this will be a super huge run like the $1 to $5 one was, although that'd be great! But I do think we could run to a respectable 2.50~3.50 from here.
Do you have any price targets that you see us moving towards?
I picked up some more today between 1.75~1.79. Hoping we see a nice close upwards today!
Yeah, it looks like I missed out. Congrats to everyone that picked up some while it was down here!
Got out today at 46.40 for a small profit. Looks like it might be headed up higher, but I wanted to lock in a win while I could.