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OT - RCKS, All the above, condos, apts, offices. A studio starts at 500K for 500 sq ft. It is bizarre, I looked out the other window and I can count 7 more cranes so a total of 17 cranes from just out of two windows. (7 cranes South facing and 10 cranes west facing.) The crappy thing is the builders don't care if they block other people's views, which pissed off the Westin Buisness Park bldg where I work and the two Westin hotel twin towers. My apt. complex blocks an old 1920 apt complex's view completely.
In terms of Single Family homes, most things downtown are tons of condos. Land is at a premium since we are surrounded by water on both sides. (Puget Sound and Lake Washington and South Lake Union.) So out of downtown it's a lot of townhouses everywhere. Not really any SFHs. May be you are right all of these were on the books before the downturn late last year. But Seattle started late on the housing boom compared to the rest of the U.S. Housing in Seattle didn't start til 2005 while other places of the Country was starting to peak.
They just keep building like the city is going to keep growing and recession hasn't affected Seattle which in my opinion is crazy. I've been living in Seattle for 10 months, and prices on homes, condos, townhouses has finally started to drop from the Q3 2007 peak. Prices has only dropped 6%.
One thing I have heard is that Amazon is moving down from Beacon Hill and has some sort of deal with Paul Allen in South Lake Union (just next to downtown) and also Paul Allen's latest real-estate venture. They are suppose to be leasing 10 blocks from what I hear. I think that is why there are a few cranes just southward facing. It's suppose to be a 5-6 year transition for Amazon.
Paul Allen is spending money like crazy down in South Lake Union. People call his projects SPAM (Spend Paul Allen's Money). A lot of his investments has been losing ventures, good thing he is rich from MSFT. Anyhow he spent $30million to clean up South Lake Union and to make it a park. He also spent close to $50 million for a stupid trolley that goes 1.3 miles. People call it the SLUT (South Lake Union Trolley) and then City council decided to change the name to streetcar instead of trolley. From what I hear they are trying to make Seattle like San Fran of the North instead of what people use to call it in the 70s as Anchorage of the South. I guess Seattle would still be a backwards shipping/logging company if it wasn't for Bill Gates who brought Tech here, and also is where he grew-up. IMO Seattle still has a bit to go before it can be called a major City like Wash D.C., NYC, SanFran, etc.
Foot, don't get me wrong, I am pretty bearish too, just planning on playing this interim-trend bounce. There is a downtrend line on both the weekly and daily charts. I think we will have lots of problems at $NDX 2000 (if we even get there).
I was just trying to stay objective and figuring out what would happen if we break past 2000-2050 range.
BTW - I live in an apt downtown (no house). So Ravi can drop a satellite on one of the many big tall buildings in Seattle that is around me so that I can get a better view of the Olympic Mountains/Puget Sound. I can't believe there are so many apartments/condos and office buildings still going up in downtown Seattle. Property mgr I talked to while we were moving offices said that there is a 1 year waiting list to lease a crane. I can count 10 huge cranes just looking out of my window.
Opps... Missed ~60 on BKX 1997. But then ~47 (1996) and then ~27 (1994).
Foot, all I can say is wow... Break at this level brings them back to 1996 at ~43 and then 1994 at ~27. If that happened FDIC may have to step in for a lot of these banks.
Foot, thanks. Yeah I agree if we break 2000 with big volume it would be very bullish. But, if we break 2050, we would have a Cup and handle in the making which would mean new highs with a target of ~2439. So I will be watching 2000-2050 carefully and only day trading small positions until or if we get there to see what to do next.
What is interesting is $NDX bounced off ~1/3 of the cups advance. If we break up past 2050, then the measured move would be 2055.82 - 1672.76 bottom of cup =383.06 + 2055.82 (brim of cup) = 2438.88
Just a recap from stockchart's C+H site:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle
"Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement is, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup."
"Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup."
Jobs does look a bit thinner in this photo. But I don't think it is that bad. I loss 10 lbs 2 weeks ago from bad sushi and didn't eat anything for 3 days. I'm still trying to gain the weight back.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/health-apples-steve-jobs-questioned/story.aspx?guid=%7BFF2FAF4E-3FDE-408C-96A3-5847B1CCF921%7D
Wow, there's a lot of numbers coming out before the bell on Tuesday.
Foot, NAUD crossed barely back up above the 50ma. 60min on $NDX is in an uptrend, daily is still pointing down. The QLD static image that I put up at around 3:30 PM actually closed today at 84.14.
Planning to go long at the open on Monday and putting a stop just below the lower downtrend line of the 60min chart ~82.50. I think we can get up to ~87ish on QLD in the next 2-3 days and then more down as we hit the Downtrend line on the daily chart and close those 2 gaps below.
In Summary, 60min looks to be in an uptrend for 2-3 more days. But after that, tough resistance at $NDX 2000 on the daily and still the daily is in a downtrend. So I am looking to short at $NDX ~2000 with a stop just above.
Gleno, as I said earlier, I think it's shorts closing out their positions since it's the end of the week and they made a killing and they probably don't want to hold over the weekend.
60min trend is up, so on Monday, I will buy when price drops to that lower trend line and put a tight stop right under the 34sma. We finally broke back through that line. It's been under all day except for the opening spike.
(Edit we were also repelled by the 61.8% fib retrace at 84.50).
Gleno, if we don't ramp soon, we may drop further down. Look at the channel lines that I have drawn. The small uptrend is in jeopardy. (Edit - Uh... I guess that answered my question. The boyz started the ramp as I was posting.) QLD right @ 82.95
Gleno, or others, just out of curiosity in terms of stops do you use a % based stop or do you use a stop based on price such as S/R? I'm trying to figure out if I should use a 1% or 1.5% stop or if that is too generous and if I should tighten it a lot more. (Edit - I know this is a tricky/gray area and it all comes down to $ mgmt ,risk/reward and tolerance.)
Good call Gleno. Slim Jim broke down. Thought it'd resolve upwards since the 5min trend has been up.
QLD 5min SlimJiming on the white line. Scamman said it usually breaks in the direction of the overall trend. More up later in the afternoon?
Still too far out to tell, but the 200dma may be a good place to put in a short the bounce? DT on the Daily still.
From AJTJ99:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29988702
2xer. GS announces before the bell next tuesday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20080617.html
BTW - AAPL turned green for a second there. Now it's red again.
Could also be a bunch of shorts covering b/c it's the end of the week and they don't want to hold long over the weekend. They made a ton this week and taking profits off the table.
Thanks good trades to you too! BTW - If AAPL turns around NDX may have one of those days. Too the moon - LOL...
My bracket order with trailing stops just got hit upper limit @ 84.17. Out QLDs.
Hmm... I thought he had pancreatic cancer a while back and beat it. Pancreatic cancer is one of the toughest to beat. May be it's back?
Still holding on... Got a trailing stop on. Trying something new instead of just plain stops. BTW - What's your next target? HoD for QQQQs was 48.35.
Yhoo getting b'tch slapped. Gonna fill that gap ~$19 from feburary. Jerry Yang is gonna need more than body guards. LOL...
Gleno, we need to break yesterday's highs if this is going to be a CIT on the 15 min charts. QQQQ 48.11 and QLD 83.37. (Edit not sure it can do on this burn. Need some consolidation.)
Gleno what's your target on the 60min for the reset?
Thanks.... Wow oil now positive. On another note, opening gap closed on QQQQ and QLD.
Not sure what happened but OIL going back to the unchanged mark. USO was down 106.96 and has reversed to almost break even. 110.48 right now.
Symmetric Triangle broke down on the 15min...
But... This 5day DT line appears to be the line in the sand? Break of that and may be we retest the lows and close the opening gap? (Edit I guess that answered my question.... It looks like they are trying to close that gap this morning.)
OT Lefty... That is what happened when HongKong British Rule was given back to communist China. Most of the wealthy Hong Kong folks moved to Australia and BC (Vancouver). BTW - Not saying that the U.S. is going to turn that leftist with Obama.
Gleno, 15min QLD Symmetric Triangle. Getting towards the end of that triangle. I guess it's wait and see mode. Next 30min-60mins will tell all.
(Edit MACD rolling over, FullStoch down, this may be the continuation of the Downtrend since triangles break in the direction of the overall trend.)
Gleno, I was looking at the charts earlier and it's weird how the VXO and VIX barely budged today even though the indexes were down a lot.
I think there will be a snap back rally since this is OE they usually end up going to extremes one way, and then retrace a bit. They also parked the $NDX right on the 200EMA. But... I think eventually, those gaps on the $NDX will fill. $NDX 1800?
Yup... I was wrong too. Bought some more QLDs at $NDX 1940, 50dma. (Edit - refering to daily charts.)
200ma going to act as rez.
2xer, still in. Looking at 10min charts right now. A lot of volatility. I'm sure even more with lots of numbers coming out tomorrow morning and OE of course.
Jun 11
MBA Purchase Applications (wk6/6 , 2008)
Quarterly Services Survey (Q1 , 2008)
EIA Petroleum Status Report (wk6/6 , 2008)
Beige Book (May , 2008)
Treasury Budget (May , 2008)
Just trying to be funny... 5min c+H and 60min c+h?
Let's see if we breakout of the 5min handle. (Edit actually while I was editing my pictures/uploading and writing it looks like we broke out of the handle.)
Target move off the 5min handle could be 87.80?? Not sure about that today. (85.85 top of cup - 83.90 bottom of cup) = 1.95 + 85.85 = 87.80 which also happens to be close to the Daily QLD 200dma.
Interesting charts by "Blacktruck". I like the bearish count. Kind of what I've been thinking for the past couple of days.
AAPL up +3.70?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29907986
Fox, just came back from walking the dog for 30mins. The formation did break funny. It went down and then bounced back up only to go back down. Now it looks like it's in a trading range with 85 being Resistance and 84 being support. (Edit looks like they just broke 85.) May be closing the gap soon.
5min symmetric triangle on QLDs. We should find out soon which way it breaks!
Yeah Gleno, the opening did look bad. I just woke up and turned on the computer. So I am trying to figure out my next move.
Just woke up, and turned on the computer. Looks like they are trying to fill the gap down. Yeah it's going to be a tough one to decide whether to get out now or stay long.
OT - Foot, since you've been working so hard I thought you'd need a little laugh. So much for Obama being an eloquent speaker. LOL
Beer, yeah I see what you mean. I wonder if we will retest 50 again before the drop down? QQQQs did a triple top in December followed by a huge drop. I guess we'll find out what the boys want to do. We got OE coming up and FOMC meeting on 6/24-6/25.
Also, we broke down on the NDX uptrend line last friday, 6/6. (Uptrend line started in March 08.) So technically I should be shorting the bounces on NDX. SPX/DJX has been weak for some time, middle of May.
BTW - I bought some QLDs before the close ~15:45 this afternoon because it looked like an intraday bottom formed. I was hoping for a pop tomorrow and a retest of the broken trendline so I could get out. NSDQ100 Futures are down -9.75 as we speak so I may get spanked tomorrow.
Gleno, may be I got some bull horns on... which is actually really hard for me right now to admit/consider with all this banking crap going on, inflation, increased unemployment, etc... But I am trying to look at both sides and doesn't that look like a cup and handle/bullish continuation pattern?
"As its name implies, there are two parts to the pattern: the cup and the handle. The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range develops on the right hand side and the handle is formed. A subsequent breakout from the handle's trading range signals a continuation of the prior advance."
"Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement is, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup."
If the handle is playing out, that means up to 1/3 retrace would = 47.46 and then a target of 60.05 on the QQQQs. (50.61 recent high on the handle -41.17 march low = 9.44 + 50.61 = 60.05)
Funny you just posted that. I was thinking along the same lines. (Edit, except not thinking blowing past 2055, but up this week and down next.)