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The volume was big for that, like everyone wanted in
First day of trading is usually green, so maybe that's why
I can't imagine a +20% run in January
If I'm not mistaken, less than 2 months ago* you lost all/most , and then went on sidelines to assess the situation.
*Post 331407, Fri Nov 06/2020, Quote: "I’m all tapped out goodby"
Then how you managed to buy 320 companies of 500 companies of SP500 ?
Also, can you explain please your concept of buying individual companies vs SP itself?
What's the difference, the advantage..
Happy new year
Happy New Year
there is such trading system
some do it
usually first day of year is green
so far dollar dropping made the market rise
why different?
374 area next
That seems to be a fact.
Alternatively, the keys to the manipulators' room is already passed on in the hands of the new, so it's the new that already plays with the strings.
Who really knows
I do know the trend is up and only up is the direction.
By the way SPY is trading I think we will see an effort for 400
Maybe by February?
Of course it isn't investing Vandal. It's trading.
Buy calls on the dips and sell for few bucks later on.
Leave some in fees and decay for the broker, they have to make a living too.
Rinse and repeat.
That's the thing we try doing here.
Yeah, so what are you gonna do about it? Huh?
Better get on with the program Vandal.
Get on the inflation train and buy calls.
Calls on dips.
Then sell on (inflation) rips.
On and on
On and on
That's precisely why we are here Vandal.
That's it.
You finally see the light..
Quote: "Only thing anyone cares about it extracting liquidity from the system."
It's OK, they have to make a profit.
If you accumulate THAT then you are guaranteed to lose, and probably have lost a lot.
Only a crash can save your skin, otherwise you are losing even if SPY corrects mildly.
THAT can not be accumulated.
Only 2 scenarios here:
1. You are bleeding profusely money on your holdings.
2. You have no position of that.
If I wanted to accumulate I would get SPDN
This is the only good post, very correct.
But in wrong place to wrong people
(the other posts are wrong all around)
People here are (supposed to be) traders. They don't care about what SPY does in one year , either what will do a year forward or what it did since a year backward, much less to care about the reason of why it did what id did or will do.
Now they look at you that you post off the mark. But so they too.
Unfortunately they say they don't care , and they shouldn't, but then they post about stimulus, and all other nonsense. Then it's no wonder you carry on. In effect you complement them.
People here should not discuss economics like stimulus and political stuff.
Only thing is how technically SPY is and should we buy calls or puts and where and for how long to hold or not given the technicalities.
Not that the stimulus will be passed, finally is passed, is half, is good, is bad, is weak, unemployment.
Only some elements are good to mention. Like end of year bonus as it's a catalyst for supporting prices much like a trend-line, or Fed meeting dates, or if market is closed or in short day.
Seems like you are a trader pretending to be a fundamentalist, and they are fundamentalists at heart pretending to be traders.
I don't know to what extent this is a joke or on who..
Here's the thing my friend, because TA is dealing with PAST events, the mind of (STUPID) people is tricked into thinking TA and charting deals with PAST.
A (STUPID) belief is that it is like trying to drive a car forward looking into the rear mirror. (this is stupid because it's not apples with apples relationship - driving a rocket would be both possible and useful and relevant, not with a car because a car doesn't use momentum much like a rocket does)
But anyway.
Would you let a mass murderer sleep with you in the room?
After all, ALL his killings are in the PAST !!!
So no worries, right?!!
Similarly, would you hire in your bank a notorious thief?
So past DOES matter and DOES tell us about both present and future.
If price bounce hard from point X , then RE-visit that point , only a fool will do nothing.
BUT THAT HARD BOUNCE WAS IN THE "PAST" !!!
TA is relevant FOR BOTH THE PRESENT AND THE FUTURE?
... I CAN'T HEEAAAAR YOUUU ...
Problem with losing money on bad trades is NOT with TA - it is with the objectivity of interpretation by the chartist, and with the skills (or lack of).
If a cook is making a bad cooking using an old GOOD recipe, it is not the recipe but the STUPID (ignorant) cook.
Furthermore, a skilled, experienced cook, will make a good cooking (good trade) even if the recipe (chart) at hand is not too good.
Merry xmas
Just drink and forget about it will ya..
yes, TA alone can put you in poor house, but if you refine TA with a strategy then it becomes sure fire.
TA alone is bad because so many reasons. One nasty reason is the dynamic situation in the markets. So if you buy mid BB it will be time when they change the matrix and you get a loser, then you lose confidence and look for another thing, then negative cycle, which bring in more losses.
Strategy and planning and money management will take care of TA and your trades.
Only an uneducated will scoff at science and hard work and talent
"Usually those fast drops* don’t happen without news."
*(moves)
Yeees, but
Put a context and you get a different view.
My context:
- (recent) Drops DID happened EOD and nothing came out of them.
- No (market moving) News followed.
- formation on daily is sideways (BB flattening and squeezing too as a result)
- populace under stress with covid, elections, covid, economics, xmas, jobs, covid, schools, covid, uncertainty, covid -- you (should) get the picture..
- (so) the socialist dictators aka the government, want to keep populace in line, so can't rally as it's already overly done, and can't drop as to not exacerbate populace agony (bad timing to do), so then just adding on just enough debasing dollars to make market unchanged or slightly green to soothe populace nerves.
- keeping steady (at HOM/HOQ/HOY and flat) ensures all bonuses of fatsos will be received.
Since they can't rally or drop, then you have those intraday (sometimes EOD) adjusting moves to make the daily chart flat.
To that end, 4 days in a row it happened, Dec 18 and 21, SPY rallied from day's lows to the unchanged mark, Dec 22 and 23, SPY sold from day's highs to the unchanged.
I expect something similar today (Dec 24) - Grinch is outlawed in this controlled market.
Who is sacrificed, and what I expect?
The small changes leaves only one spectrum of traders active - the chicken-little daytraders (of which A LOT are newbs stay home due covid situation etc - see robinhood).
Making money with options is harder, no swings, no sustained moves, no action, unless you call boring action.
These daytraders are both inconsequential and expendable. So a fast move is coming, with or without a prior misdirectional spasm. Day chart through BB tells us same thing if we listen.
The first day the GO green-light is free to be given to commence the move is AFTER xmas (to preserve the image that the socialists have a heart and give a shit).
Due to the cumulative combination of days and days of grinding and non bullish events, market overbought (ha), lack of correction (or postponed correction after technicals indicated corrections), then I expect the coal to be delivered AFTER xmas in form of corrective selloff.
But one thing remains - the bonuses of fatsos. So that should only allow LIMITED drop by EOM/EOQ/EOY , HOPEFULLY enough to produce guiding technicals in charts.
Coming JANUARY all the "let's pretend" roadblocks will be expired, so I assume the controlled market will be allowed to be corrected - carefully NOT crashed as to not stain any of the two rulers.
Personally I was thinking of a deep correction NOW before EOY so to have room to make first presidential year look green.
But if Year closes at highs, given all the problems (covid, technical, valuations) in my silly opinion it will be harder to get a green 2021 , the first presidential year.
At this point I consider last week as my pivot
I will buy last week lows
I will sell last week high (if I had calls then)
in between I do not trade a penny, I just enjoy time any way I like.
Just to be clear here
(as seen, NO puts desired, but I was contemplating 1 month out and deep OTM as per my other post/s due to chart plateauing and presidential switching and who knows what else like covid)
That's not bullish, maybe neutral. BB should be ignored as mid BB is concerned when strangling like that.
Now is sit and watch for a breach of the range, never-mind the averages.
Alternatively, buy the low of range and sell the top of range, repeat until something breaks then go with the break.
But since price can grind slowly as we clearly see, trading this (range trading) with options can be a (decay) problem..
So right now it is an Exit to cash situation as it's at the top of range..
as per
I don't know much. I was checking cycles and compared with options to see potential, then I came across this imbalance.
In theory very distant OTM should cost pretty much the same puts-calls.
This is the case with near term.
So I'm thinking that the far OTM when it comes to 1 month out then we probably uncover big money forward expectations and/or planning.
Us little chickens we don't buy FORTY DOLLARS out of money options.
But if a month out something like this pays, then it pays big.
So I also know that the writers don't want to be too exposed or sell too cheap (kind of related) so the increase in premium reflects their view.
So 410 in a month is way way way out of their radar, while 330 is kinda in the focus.
It doesn't mean SPY will go to 330 but the premium ladder as a domino effect reflects deep correction which would push some puts deep into the profit.
As a consequence of ladder pricing all subsequent premium of puts all the way down to -40 -50 will be bid up accordingly to preserve the scale.
So I'm thinking that this can be used to assess forward expectations from the pro side, and if overlaying OEPM we can get it better, and even better yet with cycles and moving averages (and timed with stochastic and RSI).
This has more potential than daytrading, and with a fraction of stress.
I don't know about before, so we need to collect data as we go to map this thing out.
I think it has merit thus worth the effort and time.
BTW to some extent options can be seen in chart so such data can be collected, but I prefer to see it live on point in time when it seems pivotal.
30dayOTM -40$ puts=1.4 DOLLARS ; calls=10 CENTS
Just stop and think about it for a moment
Add to the thinking the extra super SUPER LOW volatility (so LOWEST cost of premium) !!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(initially I said puts 3$ but confused/mixed OTM -20 with -40, as I was checking both, but still remains giga difference)
Good chance morning is high of day
WHATEVER you do you MUST try the hardest to simplify and make it simple and simpler and keep it simple.
Any more complicating and you doom your trading.
You are one man army.
Also, very important, it is NOT the same making money on paper trading with real life.
I made 30k in a week on forex with impunity and daring I may add.
In real life I can NOT do such thing , my balls will go hide..
Paper trade is good for backtesting and trying theories and hone skills, but you can NOT say you are ready for battle based on a game.
I'm glad you sound more optimistic.
Size don't matter when trying to establish a concept of trading.
Size can come later, no rush.
Trading small is PERFECT.
I try to separate trades based on odds -> small odds - small size, big odds - bigger size.
it's a work in progress..
I exited $2 too early
(at least)
That's fine
Spilled milk
You posting on the board.
Quote: "What makes you think I care what you think."
LOL
I don't believe you. It's because how you come across.
A person sure of his hand will not jump at others, but enjoy and be content.
It doesn't mean you don't believe in the downside, it means you are not positioned for downside.
Another sign ---> you give NO parameters whatsoever, only fuzzy stuff like "belief" and "accumulating" and "you/we'll see"
I am not against anybody.
We all trade what we can is my belief
But I don't like the noise
It helps no one
PUT(s) your money on the table if you believe
I don't hear any positioning
me
- I bought the dip (when SPY was bellow 363)
- Made money (sold around SPY 365 - even though I know it can go higher)
- I want to buy more
And I trade with significant handicaps
Today I COULD trade more, but family matters kick me in the balls and I can't do much
I put my money where my (chart) belief is.
I don't give a cent about the noise of people
Chart alone don't make enough money, planning and execution is needed to clean the table of bigger crumbs.
He is correct. He makes money with that correct.
That's the thing..
Quote: "No side can win too much"
No rug pulled, maybe a buying opp
looking up
just ignore the 370 stratosphere - that's how they get you to short
I think done faking and faking
time for making
35x coming up
SPY has no power to keep head above water
hmmm, FOUR reds in a row
this is begging for a green
BEGGING
so I think I better be looking for support lines
and let you brave souls buy puts
I didn't get a good daytrade lately, all moves were so fast I could not get into daytrade action the way I like
And today I had extra problems with the way I was positioned to be able to daytrade, not that I would've been able to have made one
looking forward is all we can do
As an observer I believe that ongoing lack of sensitivity diminished participation on the board from hundreds a day to barely , and some posters just left being fed-up - I have no say in that
Edit :
Instead of :
" One observation - calls with more time , DAYS more time AND barely ITM, appreciated WAY MORE than calls with ZERO time, AND 1$ deeper ITM - like freaking 50% more performance. "
Should be :
" One observation - calls with ZERO time (expiring today) , AND barely ITM, appreciated WAY MORE than calls with more time, DAYS more time, AND 1$ deeper ITM - like freaking 50% more performance. "
Now (this inexplicable crazy fact) it's correct
Adding: This described Fact happened in the period of Morning when SPY rallied from 366.64 open to 369.5 - 369.7 area (and plateaued there)
It was an extended and permanent situation, not just a mere few minutes fluke of some imbalance excuse.
I pocketed 100% of the premium on my expired hedge.
yey
Still learning this shit tho.
I'm not good by any stretch of imagination.
So I took notes of things that happened, my feelings, my problems..
i.e. closing hedge mid way thinking, or adding
And place plans of things to do and to try next time around.
I'm excited to be honest.
One observation - calls with more time , DAYS more time AND barely ITM, appreciated WAY MORE than calls with ZERO time, AND 1$ deeper ITM - like freaking 50% more performance.
This is freaking fact!
I don't know if it was a fluke, I need more data collecting, but this was the FACTUAL story today.
lessons from here can and (better) should be derived.
My impediment to sell mid-day also forced me to think and draw a plan - needs testing (looking forward to very much so).
To better days
I have a hunch that the spikes are puts as hedge or bearish positioning.
The market sets many instances where traders think "This is it, Top Top Top, I better hedge or buy puts"
Just like the village idiot with his "The sky is falling" ridiculous 1-minute charts..
Because why the increases of volume spikes reverting to the range so fast.
I'll have to sell some calls to balance my position
trend is UP, support is lower
Think differently if you have money to fight the money machine
How can you possibly see urgency?
I told you , look down on YOUR charts. YOUR charts !
YOUR charts have YEARS as small increments !!!!!!!!!!!
No urgency in YEARS unless you are God which deals in 1000s and 1000000s of years.
You CAN derive direction, but NOT urgency.
Are you technical or just fooling around
Why banging the head?! What randomness?
Randomness is only in short term (hence explicable most losing trades occur there).
(knowing you have a technical approach) You would have to agree that a moving average :
1. represent nothing but pure price
2. brings seemingly chaotic price movements into a neat order (the bigger the MA the bigger the order)
So there is no need really for "banging my head against that randomness to try to find order", the order it's already there.
So if I unite the dots in this picture in front of us I could say I see a struggle NOT to decipher randomness, but to unlock the randomness of short term chaos - and this my friend is a TOTALLY DIFFERENT thing, far and away from "trying to make sense of randomness" (an already easily solved problem).
Some people don't look at this this way but imo weekly chart is in effect a de-facto moving average of factor 5 of daily.
imo weekly 1 is not as good as a MA5 of daily which is continuous whereas the weekly 1 is arbitrarily interrupted.
Speaking of "there are 1000 ways to put indicators together" - yes, that is true.
But is like saying there are 1000 ways to put bricks together to build a bridge, or 1000 chemicals to build a medicine.
In reality there are only few CORRECT ways.
Not to mention the interpretation of indicators, maybe even more than 1000 ways there for sure..
Ten of us can look at the same chart and some of us go long and some go short. ALL with the same confidence.. - SAME CHARTS..