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I generally post when I see an opportunity to add to the conversation. First, congrats to us longs. Second, I have no projections on price for NGL other than to say that what Jugs projected in his post is as good as any and probably better than most. We will spike and pullback but the reality is, we will now see positive volatility, resulting in an upward trend. It will be much more difficult to manipulate the stock.
We will see how the folks on SA (and others platforms) respond to these numbers. SA has been a platform for those who wanted to score points by beating up on a stock that had already been kicked around. Even when last qtrs numbers came out, they spun the debt reduction and focus of management as negatives.
Will I add? Maybe, if an opportunity presents itself. I have roughly 9,000 shares so I am happy with what I have but if we run up and then pullback enough, I may add. The reality is, I bought more than I expected when we fell to the low's 10's.
I could have easily made the same mistake. probably have done the same in the past.
Unless you are looking for an entry place, nobody likes these kind of drops. With that said, I do not lose any sleep over it. We could continue to drop to the low 10's but the volume of the drop tells me it is a lack of buying more than a pressured sale. It could have started the other day with some fund moving money out of NGL into something else or someone taking some quick profits when they bought one of the earlier dips.
I am not predicting a drop but I could see some fund taking advantage of the perceived weakness and push it lower in order to buy cheap before earnings are announced.
Here are a coupe of things I hang my hat on:
Selling is not massive volume
CEO purchased $300k worth of stock
Company is paying off debt
Fat and consistent Div
I guess after all of the years of false PR and broken promises, CBIS stock price can no longer be lifted by pumpers
Sure you did. I like it when someone creates a new account so they can post some BS
No, I am just going to ride the wave now
AWESOME!
Got lucky, filled order 200 at $12.05
Yes, Len, I am having fun.
I have been reading the board but with the weather improving, our restaurant has been getting busy so I have not been posting as much. In Maine, you basically get a years worth of business in 7 to 8 months.
Great call on $12.10, it was clearly the right price point. I picked $12.05 as an entry point with the assumption that it would hit $12 and bounce from there. I had not planned on buying more (isn't that always the case) because I had already exceeded my limit when I bought the last 1,000 shares when it hit the low $10's. I also previously bought 10 option contracts for the July $12.50.
I do not see today's price action as anything other than someone taking profits before any NGL announcements.
I just put in an order 200 @ $12.05. we will see if it gets filled
As usual, I agree, though I do not have any insight or opinion to a major calamity. My opinion is that the stock was pushed down and is now coming back to its true short term worth. This stock pays a high, consistent div and is worth more than $12
If this has already been posted, sorry.
Worth reading to see who has added to NGL positions. One note, the article is weird in how it is written. The opening paragraph starts with an old downgrade.
Read the whole article
I think we got some big orders at the end of the day. I could swear we were up a couple hundred thousand shares at the close
I interpret your comments to be happiness for others and a bit of relief that the stock is turning around. Anyone who follows you (Jugs) knows that you feel responsible (at least to a degree) for those people who invest, based upon your recommendations.
Thanks Pete.
That's nice Jugs, Thanks.
Always just a few weeks away
Sure you are.
I will say this. He says so many wild things, you never know when he is serious or how far he will go.
I agreed with everything you said but I guess we have to add that, we are poised at the $11 threshold unless our president says something dumb that causes the markets to drop 700 points.
Holy Cow! This "Scam" is going DOWN!!!!! Love it. Yes 5 cents
Well said
If you are HERE to make money, let us know when you put a buy order in. We just broke 6 cents. Free fall time.
Yeah, thats what he did, misspoke
Jugs,
Thanks for the update. I have also been thinking about closing out my other positions and adding NGL. I keep saying I am done adding yet I find ways to add a bit here and there. They should be announcing div soon and I unless the market takes a complete crap, we continue to climb.
Of course I think that is a good call. Even with a big down day, we are holding up ok. Good luck
LongShot knows all of this. When news comes out, so do those who like to pump the stock. The stock is slowly dying and we are at a point now that Press Releases do nothing to prop it up.
Jugs, define collapse please.
We have pulled back around 10% from the highs. When you say collapse, I picture 2007, not a 20% pullback.
I do not think we will see $10 again either but then again, because I do not expect it, I have to believe that others do not as well and traders could try and take advantage of that with what time. I am happy with the number of shares I have. If I had more free cash I would have picked up more this am but I do not, so I set a price where I would be motivated to free up some cash.
My reality is, NGL should be well above $12 based upon where the div, revenue and debt is and what the company is doing to continue to reduce debt. And while it hurts the stock price, I like the company doing the unpopular step of reducing debt instead of paying a higher div. With insider buying and the price drop in the last month due to trading and not fundamentals, I just have to hold my nose, check my emotions and do what makes logical sense (for me).
The market is choppy and watching and waiting is my play as well. I will say that if we hit $10.15 on NGL I am picking up a bit more. I will have to sell something else but that is ok. I am playing $10 as the bottom for NGL. End of qrt is almost here and would not be surprised to see it pushed down a bit and then run up.
Short Interest tells the story. If the big boys really had not faith, that short interest would be much higher.
Hell yes I remember it. Mr. York and Tattoo, Fantasy Island. Love Boat, all of them
If I were management, I would keep my mouth closed and just do some insider buying while the price is low. Also, the lower the price, the lower the expectations.
For the most part, I try to ignore the price as it is painful to watch. That is the emotion part so I try to stay clear of it. My head tells me, nothing has changed and if I was going to get out, I should have done it a month ago. Lots of bad is baked into the price, which is well below the price the CEO just paid for 30,000 shares. That is a pretty big buy and a huge vote of confidence.
Personally, cannot disagree with the approach. If I were on the sidelines, I would definitely take a good size taste here. If you think the company is going to confirm the .39 div that would be a good strategy. If you play the trend, a hard bounce from $10 would also be a good signal.
For me, I am in as this is a div play for me. With insider buying, no news to justify this drop, and a long winter, I see it as just traders taking advantage of the low volume and lack of news. We have also been hit with some bloggers with negative outlook but that may be done in conjunction with the traders taking this stock down. I have not checked short interest but I do not see this as a short interest play but a beat down to buy the stock cheap. These same players that are beating it down will also help the rebound.
I think we have another two weeks or so before they confirm the next div payment so it may continue to be a bumpy ride.
Well done. I also took a flyer today and bought 10 contract of the July $12.50 for .40. I could have held out maybe for .35 but this is something where I either lose it all or quadruple or better my money.
You are right Pete. I also see a safety net at $10. At some point, no matter how much someone wants to take a stock down, regardless of reason, you can only push it down for so long.
We have a couple more weeks before they announce the div, when .39 gets confirmed, I see a big bounce. God forbid management make some positive announcement between now and then.
Before you read this, I want to make clear that I am not trying to convince anyone not to sell but just sharing so you have as much info as possible. You have to sleep at night and if a stock is keeping you up, you should reduce your position until you are comfortable or sell some calls or buy puts. Just my 2 cents
I am posting to links to articles on market manipulation and see if any of it sounds familiar. My suggestion is to do read the articles but also search the web for more information. I think NGL was/is ripe for some manipulation, earnings that disappointed many, uncertainty and lower than average volume, spice that up with a few well timed articles that lean to the negative and you have a recipe for traders to come in and push this around. I will say one thing, in my opinion, if the earnings were the same, and instead of paying of debt, NGL decided to raise the div, we would would have kept going. Just my opinion as ridiculous as it sounds.
I think we have about 3 more weeks of this but I think the inside buying is helping to stabilize/offset some of the manipulation. From here, I think we have strong support at $10.30 and will put in another order of 500 at $10.25 because I think it is possible if a negative article or downgrade comes out, we could drop but I think we bounce hard like we did last time.
https://www.quora.com/Why-do-many-market-manipulators-make-the-price-of-stock-go-down-instead-of-up
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/2918951-g-hudson/1026551-how-the-big-players-manipulate-the-stock-market
I think we may have another 3 weeks or so of trading. I base this upon the fact that when they announced the preferred div 30 days prior to announcing the common stock div and they just announced the preferred.
Beyond just liking where management is taking the company, I focus on 4 things. First, the price action we have been seeing is a result of day traders pushing the stock price when we have low volume. In other words, I think the current price is artificially low and not reflective of the true value, this is kind of irrelevant but it is part of my thought process. Second, NGL has an excellent div paying history and historically, they would raise the dive .01 to .03 every quarter. Two years ago, they cut the div to the current rate of .39 and I feel they are in a better position today than in the last year. I am not saying they will raise the div but I think we have a better chance of seeing it raised than cut, though my best guess is, it will stay .39 until the end of the year. The cold in the North East has continued and that is good for business. Third, someone is betting big that NGL will jump before April 20. We have combined 22,500 call options for the $15 and 17.50 strike price, expiration 4/20/18 . This represents 2,250,000 shares of stock and is not only a huge bet but puts even more incentives to push the stock price around. Regardless, someone with money has a lot of faith that the price will go up. Fourth, the reporting of a large block of stock purchased by an insider is HUGE. I believe in the cliche that says, insiders have many reasons to sell a stock but only one reason to buy.
I do not think the wide swings in price are done and it would only surprise me a little to see it drop back to the low 10's but they already cleared a lot of stoploss orders so it may be a little harder to do. I think both Pete and Jugs have level II and can get a better sense on any give day if the price is being walked down.