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Thanks for the links.
It does appear they are now avoiding labeling it as an xSeries. My bet is this has something to do with the Intel Inside incentive. There is a TV ad for the xSeries and it clearly states 'IBM xSeries features the Intel Xeon processor'. If I remember correctly (it is possible I'm not), the Intel Inside program requires an independent 'line' that cannot feature another manufacturer's processor.
Maybe they count it as an xSeries internally, but in public they make it stand alone.
HailMary
as usual in the absence of any data
Yes. I see your point. Lots of speculation going on around here, although some of that goes with the territory. Stock investing requires some amount of speculation. If you wait for the data you are usually too late to make a profit from it. In this case I don't think this has any bearing on the stock price, so the argument to me is pointless. We can wait and see how the 8 way performs when one of these small vendors makes one, and if it is very compelling, then we can speculate that other larger server vendors will have to start carrying them and how that will affect the stock price. I already speculated a few months ago that the price/performance offered by Opteron is going to lead to more OEM server wins (which it has). I think the Sun news definitely led to some of the reason runup. I won't be surprised at all if more OEMs line up with Opteron next year.
A little speculation is a good thing, but I see many here taking it too far, and stating things like they are facts in absence of real data.
HailMary
Not exactly apples to apples for TPC-C.
For the TPC-C systems you mention it should be noted the $/performance is $3.97/tpmC for the Xeon system vs. $2.72/tpmC for the Opteron system, which by the way is the lowest 4P price/performance of all (the second best is an HP Xeon system at $3.83/tpmC). The Opteron vendor was likely going for the best bang for the buck, not the highest performance. This same Vendor has the lowest $/tpmC for a 1P system as well, at $2.06/tpmC. This begs the question, could the Opteron system be made faster for the same $. We don't currently have the data to say one way or the other, so this argument seems kind of pointless.
HailMary
The IBM Opteron 325 is an eServer xSeries product
I can't seem to find where the 325 is listed as an xSeries product on the IBM webpages. Can you point us to where you see this? I thought the x series was a complete Intel line, and they advertise it as such (with the Intel Xeon inside contribution).
HailMary
I think today's news was big! I'm surprised by the level of endorsement by Sun.
I have followed AMD for a long time (10+ years), and I have always been of the opinion that AMD was a trading stock. When others have said this time it is different (K5, K6, Athlon), I chuckled and quietly began selling. Well you know, this time, I'm starting to actually believe it is different. Why?
1. IBM endorsement of an AMD server chip
2. Sun endorsement of an AMD server chip
3. Cray endorsement of an AMD server chip (will be the top supercomputer!)
4. Apparent flash recovery in sync with AMD's additional stake and capacity build up
5. all the tech forums I follow are buzzing about A64 and Opteron (bodes well for high end desktop sales and general perception)
6. My desire to actually buy an AMD based product (the new Voodoo Envy laptop and an FX51 desktop)
7. Intel seems to be having trouble with 90nm (short lived and over hyped I'm sure)
I think there is a lot of momentum here, and I expect it will be reflected further in the stock over the next several months ($25-$30). I'll probably write some aggressive puts tomorrow (I would like to be assigned), and either buy more stock or some calls with the proceeds.
The stock my have been down today, but I have seen this many times. The market often takes weeks to process news like today.
HailMary
BTW-
This trade went through on ISE seconds after clicking submit. I put in a limit at the best bid this time. I swear I have done this in the past and it just sat there like etrade routed it to an exchange with a lower bid. I still can't figure out etrade's routing system, which is why I want more control.
HailMary
Just wrote 20 Dec 17 puts for $.75. I may do some more next week depending on the news from Comdex.
HailMary
re: CyberTrader X2
BTW - this is the kind of thing I am looking for:
http://www.cybertrader.com/derivatives/level2.asp
It would be nice if I could have this via web access (the above is from a windows program). If anyone sees anything like this via web, let me know.
HailMary
I'm looking at those myself...very nice premium ($.50)/very little risk (IMO). I can't believe I wrote Nov 14s last month. The stock has really run...
HailMary
Conservative, but a very good move if you plan on selling the stock anyway. Personally I would just write the put here. I think AMD is going to run some more into January, and maybe beyond given the possibility of flash recovery. Also, I see very little chance of the stock remaining flat given its recent volatility. My bet is you get assigned or called away, so be prepared to live with either one of these. I think a better strategy is write the puts this month, and write the calls sometime next month, but my assumption is AMD will be higher next month (in the $20 range). I really only like to write covered calls when the stock isn't on a huge momentum run as AMD is now. I always try to play the trend. I guess if you think the trend is over or you want to exit your position, writing covered calls is a good move.
You just reminded me it is about time to write my december puts. The last two months I've been putting the proceeds into buying calls, which made out extremely well. This month, however, I'm going to just keep the put writing proceeds as cash. Premiums are very nice right now...
HailMary
I already have this and it's free. I get the bid and ask size for each option exchange.
Free with what? Schwab?
HailMary
Those commission rates at Schwab are very attractive. I don't think you could do better than that.
I just tried out CyberTrader's X2 software demo (free) which is mostly functional using day old data. The options section is exactly what I am looking for. They have what is called level 2 which shows the best bids and asks on each of the exchanges. This is not the same as level 2 equities, which is perhaps what Schwab is saying. You cannot see every bid and ask out there. Just the best from each exchange. From the demo, I can already see that I'll be saving .05 frequently. This is huge for me as I often deal in options in the .30-.50 range. The difference between 2 exchanges can be as much as .10. Also, you can simply click on the bid/ask you want to pair up with, and then click the buy/sell buttom. Very simple and fast. I think I'm sold. I don't know why I didn't do this sooner.
Unfortuneately the level 2 stuff is not available via the web, but you can still get directed trades on the web. This combined with my other level 1 option service will get me where I want to go. When I unload my AMD Jan 15 calls (soon I think), I'll be transfering money over to this place.
HailMary
Looking at mytrack.com it seems they want you to download a windows application. I need a solution where I can also access trading from a web browser on any computer. I don't mind the software for at home, but I still need web access for when I'm on the road or at work. Is that possible?
HailMary
I thought you said Schwab didn't have directed market trading? That is mostly what I am after here, although level 2 option quotes are also appealing to me. I have level 1 option data already, so I can see bids/asks from all option markets as they come in (that is how I know I am not getting optimal fills now), but I cannot tell which bids/asks are still active. Level 2 would provide that. I don't mind paying for this as I truly believe I could get better fills with this combined with directed trades.
HailMary
That is my question as well. After doing some research last night, I'm thinking about Cybertrader.com. They seem to be the only direct access broker that also has a web trading option. This is crucial to me. They're owned by Schwab, so I would feel safer with my money there. I'm thinking the X2 package for when I'm at home, and web access when I'm at work. I'll probably get the premium data package that allows seeing level 2 options (all available bids/asks on each of the 5 exchanges). This is $150/month, but the fee is waived with 20 trades or 200+ option contracts. I don't normally do that many trades a month, but I do typically deal in that number of contracts. Even on months I don't, it will be worth it if I save .05 on just one trade. Their commisions are cheaper than etrade too.
HailMary
edit
I see you guys have already covered this, but I'll leave my post as is since I provided a link and page number to look at. My thoughts are the doubling is not bit doubling. They bit double every year without expansion, so I'm pretty certain they mean true capacity doubling, but you do have me questioning some of this now.
end-edit
I don't know if you guys watched the extremely boring analyst conference last week, but one of the slides showed that they plan to double flash capacity by this time next year. This certainly doesn't help now, but they are doing something at least.
Look at page 16 of this pdf:
http://www.amd.com/us-en/assets/content_type/DownloadableAssets/FINAL_2003_AMD_Analyst_Day_Bertrand_....
An excerpt from page 19:
2004 Objectives
– Near doubling of manufacturing capacity to support growth
– Accelerate MirrorBit deployment
– Leverage merged AMD & Fujitsu Flash business
So if flash has a couple of boom years in 2004/2005, AMD should be in great shape, regardless of processor stuff.
I'm following this company very closely now that I have greatly increased my stake.
HailMary
Thanks! I think I'll look into this place, although I prefer web based trading so I can trade at work. I did a throwaway trade today on etrade (10 Nov. 18 calls for $.75), and it appears to have gone through on the pacific exchange. I again had the fill problem as both ise and cboe had an ask that matched my bid. My order just sat there, but eventually got filled (10 minutes later). It looks like ISE and cboe move the most volume. Pacific is near the bottom, and I'm thinking this is where etrade goes...
HailMary
I use ETrade, and the answer is a resounding no. There have been many times where I was very frustrated that a trade did not go through even though I could see a matching bid on one of the exchanges. If I could have hand picked the exchange to put the order on, it would have gone through. I'm not sure what exchanges ETrade uses. Next time I make an option trade, I'll pay attention to what exchange it is on, and I'll see if future trades also use the same exchange. If this continues, I may shop for a new broker. It may, however, just be a matter of whether or not the trade is broker assisted (i.e. phone call + more commissions), but that sort of defeats the purpose as it takes time to get through to a broker by phone, and then you pay more, by which time the bid/ask may be gone. ETrade may indeed have access to all option exchanges, but I'm beginning to think they always route electronic orders to the same exchange, so I'm missing out on other better bids/asks all the time. Probably costs me about $.05x100 per option contract for many of the trades I make. I usually deal in 10s to 100s of contracts, so this is not chump change (hundreds of dollars). If anyone knows of a broker that allows selecting the option exchange manually without having to call the broker, please let me know.
HailMary
I think this is what the coding for the option exchanges is:
E-CBOE
A-Amex
P-Pacifc
X-Phil.
8-ISE (www.iseoptions.com)
Those are the 5 major option exchanges.
I could be wrong on this...
HailMary
I'm not an expert, but there are multiple exhanges for options: cboe, pacific, philidephia, and amex, to name a few. I think it depends on your broker as to where your specific option trades are done.
By default, the volumes/quotes on the cboe site are only for cboe trades. They do have a mechanism where you can see the data from the other exchanges. If you get a quote from cboe through this link:
http://quote.cboe.com/QuoteTable.asp
you can see all the exchange data by entering the symbol and clicking 'All exchange option quotes'.
HailMary
I'm not that guy on SI, but when he posted his trade I checked livecharts just to see if it was BS or not, and indeed 1000 contracts traded at $.45. If you look today, they are going for .80 or more. That guy has some cahones, and he is extremely lucky this time around. I'm not sure where you got your volume data, but it appears to be wrong. It is likely you are seeing the volume for only one of the exchanges that options are traded on.
HailMary
Anyone thinking of selling some? We have had a heck of a run. I originally hadn't planned on selling at all until January, but I'm already exceeding some of my goals.
I sold my AMDKPs (Nov 14 calls) earlier today for $2.20 (for a 100% gain). Looks like I could have gotten $2.60 later in the day. Oh well. I made my target gain and got out. I have no plans on rolling this profit in to more calls. I would close my short AMDWPs (Nov 14 puts), but it looks like these will easily expire worthless. I'm still holding all my shares (up 90% on average) and Jan 15 calls (which are now up 180% on average). My target for the Jan 15s was to hold until January just before earnings, but with 180% gain I feel I should take some profit and run. What would you all do in this situation? I'm thinking I'll sell 1/3 or 1/2 and letting the rest run. I'm definitely holding the shares. I'm mostly concerned with what to do about the calls. I guess I shouldn't be greedy, but at the same time I would like to be highly leveraged for the next few months. Perhaps I can roll some into longer term calls to reduce the risk. Ideas?
HailMary
I'll run some numbers, making some assumptions:
1. all production is making bartons, which according to this http://www6.tomshardware.com/cpu/20030210/barton-08.html shows the maximum possible die per wafer is 273 for bartons. I'm sure this is not exact, but it is close enough.
2. in Q2 AMD sold 7.5M processors (educated guess)
Case 1 (4000 wafers/week to production, 1000 wafers/week to process development, future products, etc.):
4000 wafers/week x 13 weeks/quarter = 52000 wafers/quarter
7.5M/52000 = 144 die per wafer
144/273 = 53%
Case 2 (4500 wafers/week to production, 500 wafers/week to process development, future products, etc.):
4500 wafers/week x 13 weeks/quarter = 58500 wafers/quarter
7.5M/58500 = 128 die per wafer
128/273 = 47%
Not so hot, but in reality, AMD is likely producing more than they are selling. Some of this may be going to invertory to be sold in Q4 (we'll probably see 8M or more units shipped this quarter). It is also likely a portion of the product is simply unsellable. The lowest speed bins have to be sold quickly, or they become worthless and a writeoff. Do you count this against yields? In my calculation above, I am, because I used units shipped, not units produced. I have also left out the portion of production going to larger sized products that yield much lower.
This is all just a game. Without really knowing exactly what mix of products, how much inventory is being written off, how many wafers are going to production vs. development/samples, none of us can truly say what the yields are. I would have to agree, however, that it looks like AMD should be able to ship closer to 10M units of a barton sized product per quarter. Perhaps they could if they went full steam ahead on just this product alone. Intel has this luxury, but AMD does not. They only have one fab to run all the possible experiments they can. Most of these probably yield a big pile of coasters.
The striking thing to me is, even with this low output and low asp, the chip segment of AMD is making money.
HailMary
In this case I'm actually looking to sell during a certain time, regardless of the price, although I do have $20 in mind as a rough guess. I will likely hold the Jan 15s until January sometime. If we get a big run up before then, I'll sell half, and keep half. I don't think I would sell half of the calls until they hit about $2 in value. At that price I would lock in a profit (my average entry price is $.91) even if the other half expired worthless. As for the stock, I am just going to hold all the way to the Q4 earnings announcement. I may even hold some through it.
HailMary
Wow. Now that is BOLD! Have you backed this with some investments? I hope you're right. I have a sizeable number of Jan 15 calls I plan on holding in addition to a lot of stock. I think I would be out of the calls long before it hit $28. My predicition is $20 +- $1 just before Q4 earnings. I think it will drop afterwards in classic AMD fashion regardless of the numbers. I think next year is still a big question mark at this point. Intel isn't going to keep fumbling forever, and AMD faces challenges of its own like a smooth 90nm conversion.
HailMary
I got the Jan 15s for 75c. Brokerage fees worked out to about 2c this time. I used some of the money I made last month on AMD put writes and long calls to pay for these. I normally shy away from this. I like to keep my monthly profits as cash which stays as cash until I get assigned shares from put writing. My current position in AMD in relative % value:
stock (long) 80%
Nov 14 put (short) 2.5%
Nov 14 call (long) 2.5%
Jan 15 call (long) 15% (not all of this is from today's purchase)
AMD makes up a pretty small portion of my overall portfolio (although it has grown quickly due to the run up), but it does make up a significant portion of my 'play' portfolio.
Like I said this normally isn't my style, but AMD appears to be on a strong ride to $20, so I felt like gambling a little. If I double my money on the Jan calls, I'll sell half and let the other half ride it out. I haven't written off the november options yet either. I think this correction will be small and short.
HailMary
I just picked up some Jan $15 calls. I'm not very good at picking bottoms (which is why I usually shy away from purchases like this), so I fully expect it to tank a couple more points now. I'm not worried. By January I think this will all be noise.
HailMary
Why do you think the DTR (desktop replacement) mobile market exists? Gamers and power users. Exactly the type of people who would desire this Voodoo PC system. They don't mind lugging a few extra pounds if it means they can run their favorite power hungry apps. This is a valid and profitable market that is growing very quickly (it didn't even exist a couple years ago). Intel and AMD are both trying to play in this space because they see value in it. Only recently have you been able to get a laptop that can come very close to a desktop in overall performance. Video card makers are competing vehemently for this segment as well.
Almost all controllers today are USB based. You can even get the USB based Sound Blaster Extigy or the new Audigy 2NX for surround sound. The only real remaining downside to laptops is upgradeability of the main components. I think this trend may soon change as well. I have heard rumblings of a new laptop standard that will allow exchanging video cards, motherboards, memory, etc., similar to what you can do today in a desktop.
HailMary
Interesting trades going by-
10/21/2003 14:14:57 14.260000 100000 nyse Trade
10/21/2003 14:19:55 14.270000 257800 nasd Trade
10/21/2003 14:20:11 14.270000 305300 nasd Trade
10/21/2003 14:20:38 14.270000 257800 nasd Trade
10/21/2003 14:21:16 14.270000 122100 nasd Trade
10/21/2003 14:21:28 14.270000 1221200 nasd Trade
10/21/2003 14:23:11 14.270000 1543400 nasd Trade
HailMary
Yes if you want thin and light, you are correct. Centrino all the way. If you want a desktop replacement, the A64 may be better overall. I think hard core gamers would go for this one.
Laptop graphics systems have come a long way. The ATI mobile Radeon 9600 is no slouch. I would like to see some benchmark comparisons between these VoodooPC laptops. If AMD goes up another few dollars I might get myself one of each and do the comparison myself. :)
HailMary
LAN parties. These are very popular. Gamers love to show off their rigs, and this product would qualify as one of the cooler setups.
Overall the Centrino laptops are going to dominate the market, no doubt. I should not have said 'niche' for Centrino. It offers a great combination of features for the mass market. I was talking about profitable niche markets where AMD can do well. I wasn't slamming on Centrino. AMD desperately needs an answer to Centrino, and it doesn't look like it will be here anytime soon. In the meantime, they can target a few small but highly profitable segments where Intel can't compete as well.
HailMary
Actually no I didn't see the one about AMD and 64 bit addressing. AMD's marketing/advertising generally stinks. I hope they do find a way to make people believe it is magic. It isn't slimy, it is marketing. Intel does it very well.
Good marketing of technical products targeted for mass markets should make technical people feel the same way they do when they go to a movie about something technical. You have to raise the BS flag about a dozen times, but you can still enjoy the movie. Most people watching won't notice the BS, and will just think it is cool.
HailMary
Exactly. Why would any gamer buy this P4 3.2 11 pound 2.2" thick $3500 monster, when they can buy the A64 one that is faster (on most game benchmarks), lighter (8 pounds), thinner (1.7"), and cheaper ($3000)?!?!? That was my point. AMD is going to find a nice niche in the performance laptop segment.
HailMary
Did you see the one where they are on Mt. Everest surfing the web? People are going to believe this stuff thinking Intel has some kind of wireless magic and they can go anywhere with it. In very small print on the bottom of the screen during the commercial, it says wireless capability is dependent on public 802.11b networks. I'm sure someone has taken the time to set one up on Everest somewhere and down in that mine.
Very clever those Intel marketeers.
HailAMD
They both have a niche, but the AMD laptop I linked to will destroy that one in performance, which is more important than size and battery life to most gamers. Compare the product I pointed out to this one, which would be closer in performance, and you can see the advantage:
http://www.voodoopc.com/systems/m600.aspx
HailMary
I'm no Intel fan, but I think Intel has done a fabulous job marketing Centrino. The ads are all over the place, and they make it seem like you are getting something special that nobody else has. This is far from the truth, but when has that ever gotten in the way of marketing? I would be willing to bet that over time Centrino will rank right up there with Pentium, Intel Inside, and duh-duh-duh-dung. Being technically minded, it does annoy me, but we are in the minority here despite what we think. All Intel needs is a good product and great marketing. They don't need the best product to 'win'. This still leaves a very nice and profitable niche for AMD with the technical enthusiasts as long as they have a overall better product in a given segment. A good example might be this product:
http://www.voodoopc.com/systems/m855.aspx
I bet this will be the best gaming desktop replacement laptop, period, for months to come. I doubt we'll be seeing a P4EE or a comparable Prescott in a laptop anytime soon, leaving this to be the benchmark champ.
HailMary
Stunning! I wish you had pointed this out about 10 years ago! It would have saved me a lot of time and stress over just skimming option premiums. Of course now that you posted this it will likely reverse the trend. :)
HailAMD!
Nice site! I use Lycos livecharts myself:
http://finance.lycos.com/qc/livecharts/default.aspx?symbols=OPRA:AMDWO
If you don't subscribe, it is delayed quotes, a small chart, and there is an annoying timeout. Subscribers can have much larger charts and real-time streaming charts/trades. I hope it isn't against policy to post this. I have no affiliation. I just find it useful.
I sold AMDWPs (Nov 14 puts) on friday, and bought AMDKPs (Nov 14 calls) with the proceeds. Normally I would have gone with the AMDWOs, but I was feeling lucky after last month and an excellent report. :) I think we may get a run up going into the shareholders meeting.
HailAMD!
I have a few simple rules for my put writing, and they have served me well as long as I have had the guts to stick to them:
1a. I only write puts on a stock I wouldn't mind holding onto for a long time (i.e. I think they are currently undervalued). I'm essentially dollar cost averaging my buys this way. I won't sell the shares immediately when I get assigned since I like the future prospects.
OR
1b. If I am uncertain of the stock's future, or I am unwilling to take some risk on the stock, when I get assigned shares from a put write, I will immediately sell the stock, regardless of the loss. This is very hard to do and takes discipline, but it is the safest route.
2a. keep the put writing proceeds as cash if I feel the stock has very little chance of making a big run up in the short term
OR
2b. buy risky call options for that month (or a few months out) with the proceeds if I feel a run-up is coming
In a down year, you WILL lose money with this strategy, but if you keep at it consistently, you will make good money long term. Last year was the first year I had a capital loss in 8 years of using this strategy, and it was pretty small. Part of the reason it was only a small loss is I held the shares I was assigned instead of declaring them as losses (rule 1a above). I was using margin and things looked bleak, but now that the market is back up I can unload the shares at any time for a nice profit. It was worth it to ride out the storm.
Some months it can be tough to find a stock to write puts on as I felt they were all overvalued. In this case I may skip a month or two.
HailAMD!
I'm doing very well, so far, although if you asked me at this time last year, the picture wasn't so pretty as I was down overall (to be expected in a down market I suppose). If AMD had gone under, I would have lost a good amount of money since I held the shares that I was assigned instead of selling them for a small loss at the time, but I believed they would pull out, and my instincts appear to have been correct. When I start to feel AMD's strength is diminishing, I will reverse the strategy by stopping put writing, and starting call writing. At any time I may just dump all the shares and buy back the covered calls if I feel something significant has changed that would severly hurt AMD stock. If AMD does skyrocket to $50 or above, I'm sure all of you call buyers and long term stock holders will make tons more money than me, but I will still have made a very good % return annualized, which is all I really care about. I'm not looking to make a fortune all at once, which with AMD is certainly possible. I'm looking to make a very good steady return, year after year.
HailAMD!