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Gold and Miners: I would not want to be short if Monday's high get taken out. I don't know how much clearer I can be then that. I may not be a Elliott Wave expert but I know enough to know when something is ready to break out and both a on the verge of moves higher. If either break Monday's highs it's a clear sign thy're ready to go. No need for charts or technicals or anything like that. Just draw a line at the highs for Monday and that's your signal.
I've been calling for a low from the USD somewhere between $94 and $92 for the longest but honestly I didn't see $92 as highly probable. I'd also need to mention that I've now extended the low all the way down to $91 even though I don't expect it to go that low it is a possibility based on the current wave structure.
At the moment I'm thinking that the latest bounce is 4 of 3 with wave 5 of 3(grey boxes) and waves 4(green box) and 5(red box) still to come. Where it tops here in this 4 of 3 will be important but as long as $97.17 holds lower levels will remain my primary expectation with anything over $96.10 as a clear short signal.
Now with that being said this entire move off the highs just above $100 have all been a larger degree 4th wave with one more high in wave 5 over $100 to come. This clearly coincides with my expectations for lower lows from CL however I try not to depend too much on correlations as they came be misleading when they are not working as expected.
I'm going to post a detailed Elliott Wave analysis for CL/DWTI but this is what I have for the head and shoulders you mentioned. The first chart was one I posted on Friday and the second one includes today's action. We also have a 2nd level to this H&S pattern that could come into play but my next update will address that in more detail.
Anyone else think this is just about ready for another go?
I'll be back in a few, was able to catch some sleep on the train so I'm feeling great. I also plan on working the rest of the week because volitility is heating up and I don't want to miss any of it. I also started scaling into CVOL this morning at .63. It was only a 1000 share buy but I wanted to get it on my board so I could monitor it's movement closer. This is the best volitility count I have at the moment. White and yellow is my preferred movement.
Good Evening EST, it looks like /NG is working out well. $2.935 was in fact the high and I'd say that my call for $2.90-$2.95 was pretty good. Been pretty lucky playing nat gas so far. Good Luck to everyone playing with us. Remember that I'm waiting for about $2.70 of my next UGAZ entry. I'm also watching $2.778 as a possible support area that could send us up for OMH before that low but I'll be in the rest of the week to monitor progress.
GDX looking good, I know it's taking forever but system is geared to price movement not timing. No matter as long as it continues higher we'll get our squeeze I've been waiting on. It's bound to happen and getting closer by the day IMO.
Good Luck Sanford, glad you decided to join us here on these nat gas plays, keep and eye on the board for our next move and remember we're still expecting Nat Gas to move higher so this DGAZ play is just a short term swing play.
Great Call, selling early was without question the correct move. Hoping the rest of our EST traders was able to take advantage of out success with these Nat Gas Calls.
I'll see you guys in the morning.
Berkshire Hathaway just borrowed over $3 billion they must be in trouble.
March 5, 2015 3:32 pm EDT
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) has made some interesting news this week. The conglomerate under Warren Buffett has successfully borrowed over $3 billion in new note and bond offerings. What is interesting is that the traunches were sold in Europe rather than the United States.
The dollar is setting up for a rally. That doesn't mean we won't see additional lows before it starts but it's getting closer. I don't care what I'm reading or what anyone is saying. I DO NOT BELIEVE THE DOLLAR HAS TOPPED>
Please listen up here EST, volitility players are about to have a chance to make some MONEY. I need at least one more day before I can make a proper play but I'm tracking a move that could take us as low as 1995ES or as high as 2200ES.
Short term gold and miners remains bullish. GDX is looking higher as long as $18.77 remains in tact.
Do you care about GDX?
Mitch I decided to answer your question without any charts so everyone understands where I'm coming from. First what I'm about to say has not changed from my original call several months ago but the timing is now a little more clear IMO>
1. Over the next few months I think gold is still targeting over $1300 and maybe even as high as $1380.
2. I also think that gold still has OML before this correction is complete and it'll follow the next high over $1300.
Here's the problem that we're having with gold. Right now the chart is bullish and I'd argue with anyone that doesn't think it is. As a matter of fact unless 1158 I'm not even considering additional downside at the moment.
Now I'm going to put this out there even though it's not my primary expectation because it is a viable alternative. With everyone looking higher, including myself, I'm tracking a LONG TERM BOTTOM that will end the three year correction and we could see it within the next couple of weeks. Again this is not my expectation but if we see a near term bottom between $1118-$1083 it will complete the downtrend and start a multi-year bull run.
I'll do GC you you next
We don't worry about PC bro, that is unless it's a ticker and we can make money off it, LOL....
The answer to your questions is yes, NG still has a possibility of seeing OML under $2463. While I don't think it's probable there is still an outside chance that the low I called was the bottom of the 3rd wave and not the 5th.
Will be looking for an entry in the morning.
Thanks for the input, personally I enjoy using EW analysis mainly because it works a hell of a lot more then it doesn't if it done correctly. I do however understand the points I'm seeing from those that don't have the level of understanding that someone with more experience may have. Going to continue to work on this one but the main thing is to try and be clear no matter what we decide to do. Going to start posting here in a few. I hope you guys had a good weekend because it's time to get back to work and this week is looking like it could be a doozy. Good Luck.
I'll be on this evening around 6. Want to go over the usual suspects before the week get's rolling. BAA is certainly in play as GDX looks ready IMO. I'll post my "target" levels for GDX and all the other ETF's when I get back.
Like we discussed on Friday I'm not going to post the waves in as much detail as I have in the past. Many just don't seem all that interested. My problem is I have a feeling I'm gonna get the ever present "WHY" I think something is gonna do what I think it's gonna do. If you trust my targets without "my" evidence" that's great but I have a feeling we'll be right back where we started if I just post charts without counts. You know how it is, new guys comes along and thinks I'm full 'o shit and wants to call me out on one of our plays so I'll have to post "something".
If I'm wrong and you still want me to post counts let me know but from what I'm hearing EW counts only complicate matters and that's the last thing I need when trying to post both long and short term targets. I'm OK with whatever as it's getting a little easier for me to keep these counts.
I welcome any and all suggestions but remember you guys are ruthless and demand entries and exits at every turn. I could really use some help on this one if anyone has any ideas.
Some very nice charts you posted tonight.
Very Quickly.