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dig space: Don't disturb Matt...
he's quite content with a docile WAVX board, even if it is filled with idiotic interpretations of current events. After all, IHUB is about building communities, not discussing stocks. And which of us can say that a cult is not a community? Actually, I don't know why the Wavoids get so offended when I accuse them of being a cult. It's so obvious. I think they should stop fighting it and just go with the cult thing. Perhaps the company could sell juggler lapel pins?
P.S. You should be happy with Sean Penn as btk. Heck, the guy's an Oscar winner!
P.P.S. 24601's getting a lot of chatter in today. In advance of his 90 day sidelining that will happen when Q1 results come out, no doubt.
Matt: Go to the WAVX board...
and read the cult's version of due diligence. The company comes out with a public repudiation of its CEO's breakeven-in-2004-sort-of posture and the Kool-Aid Klan interprets it as evidence of an impending buy-in by MSFT. Or INTC. Or somebody else really big and important. It is too hilarious!
P.S. I hope you are proud of yourself, Matt. Cults need facilitators. God knows they have enough of the predator-class following them around.
Earth to Wavoids....Come in Wavoids...
So the company announces the following:
(bolds and underlines mine)
Steven Sprague, president and CEO of Wave Systems, commented, "Once effective, we believe that the shelf registration statement would provide Wave with the flexibility it needs to fund its working capital needs through equity-based capital raising transactions. We currently anticipate that the gross proceeds indicated in the registration statement, if raised, would be sufficient to meet our current capital requirements through 2005. Depending on the timing and scope of revenue generated from current operations and/or new corporate initiatives, Wave may actually require less funding going forward than that contemplated in this registration statement. Any draw-down under the registration statement would only be done with the advance approval of our Board of Directors."
This repudiation of the ridiculous stance that some exotic version of break-even in 2004 was attainable--a position espoused less than six months ago by the very same Steven Sprague--is viewed by Wavoids as evidence of another reason to put on their every-ready happy shoes? This is seen as evidence of an impending buy-in by a gorilla (pick which one: INTC, MSFT, etc., etc., etc.)? How about this boys and girls? The company is going on record with one of its rare concessions to reality, i.e., that break-even in 2004 was an insanity that even the most Kool-Aid Komatose Wavoids would eventually have to reject and that it's gonna need as much as $25 million to take it through the following year.
P.S. to Matt: Greetings to the Cult-Facilitator-In-Chief. Lord knows the Wavoids must be protected from any contrary opinions such as the above.
Meanwhile WAVX will continue to issue PRs...
trumpeting this alliance, that alliance, this venture, that venture, etc., etc., etc. Its officers will continue to travel around the world glad-handing every IT person they can, all in the interest of self-promotion and in the hopes of eventually landing a job with some company that may actually go somewhere.
As long as the company can occupy the no-man's-land between INTEL and MSFT in such a way that one or the other will prop it up, it will find a way to raise money. Will it ever actually make money? No. Not a chance. I don't believe there's anyone there who has a clue about turning a profit. Peter did, at one point in his life, but he's apparently not that interested any more. Leadership will continue to paint a rosy picture and the managed shareholder base (i.e., Wavoid Cult) will continue to ignore the past in favor of gazing off at the horizon. Eventually, it will end badly, I believe. I expect there will be dilution upon dilution and, eventually, a buy-out. Wavoids will be bitterly disappointed in their fate. But it is a fate they will undoubtedly deserve.
Of course, ICBW.
P.S. to Matt: Eamonn's response is the standard "quality" remark you find on the WAVX board. A place for cultists to gather, pat themselves on the back, and claim that nobody out there gets it.
Will TCG disappear overnight?
No. I predict it will continue adding members until everyone remotely connected with technology in essentially all fields is a member in full standing. At which point it will be issuing edicts, pronouncements, standards that are so watered-down, so diluted, that no one's ox will be gored by them. It will render itself completely useless. See FINREAD and CYBER-COMM for the prototype.
SCORPIO: In response to your message...
which you may or may not ever see (please take a moment to genuflect in the direction of that Protector of Wavoid Eyeballs, Sheriff Matt, for that)...
You posted:
Posted by: scorpio_esq
In reply to: Doma who wrote msg# 36615 Date:4/7/2004 11:17:10 AM
Post #of 36628
Here's a comment for the HhH, type Wave skeptics: The requisite IT market awareness is 'out there' (everybody seems to understand this but you):
Quoted from the document:
"We do not want to our source to be pirated like Half Life 2 through Internet. That is why select a
motherboard with hardware security. The firewall and anti-virus software are plus. "
*********************
Dear Scorpio, doma-kopf, et al:
Your problem is equating "IT market awareness" with the enterprise market. I don't doubt that there are several hundred techies scattered around the IT universe that think the TCG solution is fabulous. No, boys, I get that. Okay? I will stipulate to that point.
My position is that there is measurable distance between convincing the geeks in IT that it's necessary to spend a gazillion hours and God-knows-how-much-money to adopt the TCG's recommended solution and convincing the folks holding the purse strings. Sure, some organizations might allow their IT people to spend willy-nilly, but the vast majority do not and will not. You have got to spell out the value proposition in a way that makes sense and, so far, I haven't seen such an argument. The statistical data that X number of people will spend Y dollars for something called computer security is too vague to have any meaning whatsoever. Remember, the target market is supposed to be the enterprise, not Joe Blow. Give me the rationale that you use when you make your pitch to the Jack Welch-type. You don't do it because there isn't a cogent case to be made. Which is why I believe TCG is doomed.
P.S. to Matt: Please point me to a single message relative to this stock that is, say, 10% as substantive as this one.
Another Hamhock prediction: TCG will bomb...
for one reason and one reason only:
No one in their right mind--consumer or enterprise--trusts the Trusted Computer Group. This technology cabal is selling a pig-in-a-poke. Peddling so-called security when what they're really up to is figuring out a way to capture a market and essentially hold it hostage forever. It ain't gonna happen. The whole thing crashes and burns in 2004.
P.S. Of course, ICBW.
P.P.S. to Matt: There is a special place in the inferno for Cult-Facilitators. If I had more than three measly posts a day, I would elaborate.
Doma: Are the Finread numbers in yet?
I believe you were 100% certain that there would be in excess of 20 million Finread devices deployed in 2003. Conservatively. So what was the final number? And how many do you think will deploy in 2004? 40 million?
P.S. I believe my estimate was something a lot closer to zero. So who was right?
24601: How about a new bet?
I'll wager WAVX revenues for Q1 2004 are less than $100K. All posting rights everywhere for the period of ninety days.
Matt: Have you considered...
the possibility that I pose no threat to the Wavoids? The possibility, however remote, that some of them actually read my messages? You cave in to Snackman, chief propagandist (if you call insipid cheerleading propaganda), despite the express wishes of several leading voices of that group (which I fondly refer to as a cult).
Matt, old boy, you can like my shtick or not, but the one thing I have over the cult is: I've been right and they've been wrong. And I happen to know several individuals are rather pleased to have followed my advice in the past. As in my sell signal at $20. And at $14. And at $5.
Anyway. Whatever.
24601: Ever get an answer...
on the issue of whether WAVE "set up" a message board as per the George Gilder quote? Perhaps he misspoke. Or perhaps not. Whether they actually set it up or not (via their henchman Snackman), I'd be willing to bet they allowed their employees to post on the RB site. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to learn someone was actually assigned the task of monitoring it and, yes, steering the discussion in pro-WAVX directions. I would look at MrKleen for starters. And, of course, that person whose name was mentioned by CPA. I think it's possible such behavior was, in fact, rampant at Lee, MA. If so, it would be the hundredth example of idiocy in the boardroom.
P.S. I think the independent contractors who are beholden to present management and who keep mouthing things like, "It's coming" ought to disclose the fact that they receive compensation from the firm. It's my feeling that not disclosing this information is misleading to the reader and, I don't know, not exactly kosher. But, then, you're the lawyer.
Wavoids: The Class action lawsuit...
has everything to do with insurance money and little to do with whether WAVX wants or does not want to settle. Typically, the insurers do not want the legal costs and will settle up rather than go to court. Since they are on the hook for the legal costs of defending the case, it is their call. In the future (assuming there is a future), it ain't gonna be easy to even get coverage. If it's obtainable, it's gonna be prohibitively expensive. Which may cause some directors to bolt (the smart ones). Anyway, continue with whatever you were innocently doing....
WAVX=Management Hype and Pipe...
in the classic sense. Hype the prospects...Pipe every remotely-justifiable cent to the management group. Bonuses for money-losing years, stock options up the kazoo, fat salaries, relatives on the payroll. These folks have bought off the management team, I suspect. Which is why the CFO remains in his post despite obviously being an ignoramus when it comes to GAAP and not knowing his ass from a hot rock when it comes to financial engineering. A cynical person might suspect that such "talent" maintains his position by virtue of knowing where the skeletons are buried more than anything else.
That's three and out for me!
P.S. to Matt: I'm sure the Wavoids are delighted that you protect them from my depredations on a daily basis. Lord knows the cult runs a fair and balanced forum.
Perhaps civil complaints will come first...
what with the SEC taking first crack and the Justice Department second. We'll see.
I'm betting on indictments soon...
although I think the parties named will come as something of a surprise. Of course, ICBW.
Weby: I don't feel sorry for you...
because, old boy, you deserve this fate. You trusted a bunch of people that any rational person can see doesn't deserve it. You rationalize misleading remarks, you forgive the endless gorging at the trough, you act as apologist for the depredations of the cult, etc., etc., etc. I'm sure you are essentially a decent person, but your Wavoid persona has sold its soul.
That's three and out for me today. Ciao!
Rachelelise: I feel sorry for you...
You are generally a fair-minded individual, but you have ignored the red flags that should have sent you running for the hills, i.e., a CEO that either intentionally misleads or lives in Never-Never-Land. (I'm not sure which is worse.) Combine that with a CFO who appears to be ignorant of GAAP and whose grasp of financial engineering is tenuous at best and a former Chairman who rushes to cash out half a million shares and hides behind some obscure SEC rule to avoid disclosure (until a 10Q gets it out there) and you get a recipe for one thing: Screwed Investors. Looks to me like you have placed a rather large bet--your credibility, if nothing else--on a group of folks who apparently couldn't care less about their own credibility, let alone yours. I hope your career can survive it.
24601: Steven Sprague's "guidance"...
on 2004 cash flow is still out there. You remember? It was in November, I think, following the last SHM in which more mature board members discussed a 2005 - 2006 time frame for achieving cash flow breakeven. Your CEO went to the trouble to e-mail a Wavoid and contradict this sensible talk with his explanation that he, er, sorta forgot to include ramp-up costs in his version of break-even. His position at that juncture was that break-even was his expectation for 2004, if additional ramp-up costs were excluded from the model. This, in my opinion, will prove to be as misleading as his defense of the PGE revenue projection of 2001 in which--in July of that year--he defended a $21 million revenue projection, only to fall something like $20 million short. Wavoids at that time, as usual, dreamed up something else to cheer about and forgave him the egregious over-estimation.
Here is my prediction: There is ZERO CHANCE this company even remotely approaches cash flow breakeven--even if you completely eliminate all so-called "ramp-up" expenses. One would have to be completely out of their mind to think this is a possibility. Completely insane. Which, of course, describes a fair number of Wavoids when it comes to what they like to call investing.
Matt: Are you a Wavoid?
Or just a cult-facilitator? Just curious. Snackman has persuaded many an otherwise cogent individual to buy this pig-in-a-poke. I'm thinking you probably bought some. Come on now. Come clean.
P.S. I sorta hope ya bought a ton of it!
spin: Actually, it's mainly in VFSTX...
nowadays. Vanguard short-term corporates. Current yield about 3.87%. Also a fairly significant chunk in TIPs. I believe there isn't that much credit risk in the short term investment grade corporates and obviously the short term duration takes away most of the risk of rising rates. It ain't gonna make me rich, but it narrows the spread between my asset yield and my mortgage debt to about 1.5%. Being short term on the asset side and long term on the liability side, I'm hoping to get to a positive arbitrage point within two-three years.
P.S. Years ago (like 20), I instituted a hedging strategy for the benefit of my employer that used puts on the 30 year treasury bond. In those days there wasn't much of a public market for derivatives, so I had to negotiate an instrument with a large money center bank. If you want to see how it went, go back and look at the yield curve in mid-1984.
That's not whining...
it's guffawing! But, then, I forgot you have a policy never to express anything publicly that might be construed as negativity. So, I guess I should picture you writing another earnest letter of protest to the boys in Lee, which they will promptly ignore, as always.
As to the transaction reported in the 3rd quarter 10Q, I actually raised the question well before then. The press release--you know, the one in which the company boasted of all the cash that would roll into the corporate coffers thanks to the exercise of stock options, conveniently ignoring the fact that the main cash infusion was to the wallets of management--anyway, that press release was accompanied by Form 4 filed by Feeney, but nothing by Peter Sprague, who obviously had sold stock. You could go back and look it up. I think it's on Raging Bull. I would post a reference link, but RB is too much a pain in the ass to bother.
Unfortunately, due to the constraints imposed by cult-facilitator-in-chief, Sheriff Matt, this will end our dialogue for the day. Heaven knows the cult should not be forced to read more than 3 messages a day from me. It might impair their sense of loyalty. Or Snackman might go on another crying jag.
By the way, saying you see the matter for what it is stops short of calling a spade a spade. You obviously can't bring yourself to utter the simple truth: These folks are awfully greedy! Go ahead. Say it. I dare ya.
WAVX = HYPE AND PIPE...
Hype the prospects and pipe the money to the management team. All perfectly legally, of course. Made possible by the generosity of that wacky cult fondly known as: WAVOID NATION. Ya gotta love 'em!
24601: Not wrong at all...
Yours was not a commentary on the egregious greed of the management of WAVE at all. You merely posed a question about why Peter Sprague, former Chairman of WAVE Systems and presently an officer of the majority-owned WaveXpress was not required to file the usual insider-trade forms with the SEC. I believe I posed the same question months earlier, as a matter of fact. My impression, given a not-so-thorough review of the SEC requirements, is that officers of subsidiaries appear not to be bound by the same rules as officers of the parent. If this is the rule, one must wonder if the whole object of demoting Mr. Sprague to his position running the incredibly unprofitable WaveXpress wasn't to enable this very sort of transaction. Once again, management finds ways to line its own pockets. That's what it's all about in Lee, MA. I do believe you've been duped, John. Just my opinion, of course. You are entitled to yours.
P.S. Do you believe WAVE management is too greedy or not? It's an easy question.
P.P.S. WAVX = Management HYPE AND PIPE operation. Hype the prospects. Pipe as much money as possible to the management team. And thank God for a cult to defend you while you do it. All perfectly legally, I expect.
chwdrhed: you are ignorant...
of the history of this group, fool. Is there anything you don't render an opinion on?
That's it for me, today. Toodles to Cult-facilitator Matt!
24601: Talk about greed...
Peter Sprague dumped 500,000 shares into the pop last August? Did I read that somewhere or was Spin makin it up? No wonder he paid back that already written-off loan. Somebody woulda forced him to anyway. Forgive me for saying I am not surprised in the slightest at this most recent manifestation of management gorging at the trough.
P.S. I notice this is a subject you don't like to discuss too much, counselor.
WAVX: Classic case of...HYPE AND PIPE!
Hype the prospects and pipe as much dough as possible into management wallets. Helps to have a cult form your shareholder base, of course!
I will be at PokerStars again...
playing a bit of Hold 'em. The Hermippe 5/10 table (play money). Since I am limited to 3 posts a day by the evil Sheriff, you may chat with me over there if you like. No cost to register or play. There is a tournament at 1:00 however, which will require my attendance.
24601: Do I hafta go search for it?
Give me a link or somethin, fer cryin out loud. Don't tell me yer bitchin about me bein in "Silence is Golden" mode either, John. You invented that posture.
dig space: I think I offended Matt...
but I'm not sure if it was the Supercuts bit or the Mervyn's crack. I already promised I wouldn't do it again, but I don't think he's paying any attention. No doubt the cultists have informed him that they will do a mass exit to that site run by the esteemed journalist Go-Kitesurf if he lets me loose again. And, hey, I like a good steak as much as the next guy, so who am I to judge?
Anyway, judging by my email, most of the cult come over here to read my remarks anyway (with the exception of those who prefer the eyes-covered, ears-plugged, Kool-Aid-Katheterized approach to investing). So, I suppose it doesn't matter if Matt goes with his gut instincts (sorry for that).
So it looks like the jailhouse is our forum. At least the company is not delusional (other than Linda, of course).
P.S. to 24601: Did Spin steal your password, counselor? You blame me for not rising to your defense regarding our RB bet? Well, to tell the truth I wasn't payin that much attention. If it makes ya feel any better I will stipulate to this:
24601 lived up to the bet he made with me, the one in which he said he would not post at that forum for one year if WAVE Systems did not report at least $2 million in revenues in the fourth quarter of 2002.
As a matter of fact, I will compliment you on your willingness to stand up for your beliefs (regardless of how hare-brained they might be). Bigtim was the one who made the stupid remark to begin with. When I suggested the wager, it was up to him to call. He folded instead. Which suggests he knows his poker, even if his sense of when to bluff is a tad faulty.
Actually, John, if you had any sense of fair play, you would petition Matt to release me from the jailhouse. I know you and numerous others have suggested I should not be here, but to me the support sounds a bit like lip-service. Anyway, Ciao.
WLoD: You are a trader...
and short-seller. I'm not talkin to traders, the vast majority of which are lucky if, in the long run, they break even. So, bottom line, I don't much care if you and the thirty-nine fools who've got you member-marked read my shtick or not! Ciao!
WinLoseOrDraw: Fuzzy logic on multiple counts...
lemme try to essplain it to you:
1. I don't short stocks. Don't care for the mindset required to be a short-seller. Don't like feelin good about companies goin belly-up, people gettin fired, etc., etc., etc. This is my own personal view. I don't care if you or anybody else, for that matter, shorts stocks. I ain't proselytizing, here, just essplainin why I'm not short this or any stock.
2. Even if I did short stocks, I am not advocating shorting WAVX. I posted a detailed view of the company's current position yesterday which, I dunno, maybe you read it or maybe you didn't, but it's there nonetheless. Frankly, I don't believe you can count on this thing being dead. You never know what the folks at MSFT or INTEL are gonna decide. They may decide to keep the pawn alive for an extended period of time. There may be more PRs that pop the price. Any number of things that spell risk for short-sellers. So, no, I would not and am not counseling that action. By the same token, I would not advise anybody to buy the stock here, unless they're playing with pin money they can afford to lose. I guess if I were a Wavoid sitting on long-term holdings, I'd probably just sit tight--unless a wipe-out had some effect on my standard of living.
3. The premise of your argument--that one must hold a position in a stock in order for his views to have some value--is flawed on its face. One thing I have that the longs don't have and the shorts don't have is objectivity (although some will argue my personal animosity toward the greedy folks in Lee has compromised that).
4. The Wavoids have the option to put me on ignore. It should be obvious by now that the majority prefer for me NOT to be muzzled. Furthermore, I don't understand why you even care. You don't even own the stock, do you?
Anyway, you can put that thumb of yours back in the fragrant crevice from which it was extracted. Ciao!
I'll be at PokerStars...
for the next few hours, if any of you bored folks want to talk. Try the Hold-em board, Theotes by name, 5/10 (play money, so ya'll don't need to be shy. You can register for free, also). Back there after lunch.
P.S. to WinLoseorDraw: I don't short stocks. Don't care for the mindset required (meaning hoping stocks tank). No offense, I don't hold it against folks that do, just not for me. Also, I'm not advising a short position on WAVX. You never know what new rabbit will pop out of the hat!
Here's a Pro-WAVX remark, just to show...
my objectivity.
I am not in the camp that believes WAVX has been entirely smoke and mirrors since day one. True, they have been as greedy as the Rigas family (almost), as inept as Xerox management, as prone to misleading remarks as Kenny-boy Lay, but that doesn't mean I think everybody there is worthless and there is zero value to the intellectual property that they have spent a hundred and twenty million bucks on.
It's my theory that WAVX inhabits the no-man's land squarely between INTEL and MICROSOFT. This real estate is, in my opinion, of some value. For now, anyway. The company's existence is useful to the two behemoths if for no other reason than to counterbalance the other to some degree. However, I do not believe this is a position that can be sustained indefinitely. Both Microsoft and Intel have the funds and the expertise to duplicate WAVX's intellectual property within some period of time. I suspect both are engaged in this endeavor at this very moment. The day may come, then, that no-man's land is no longer of any value, at which point WAVX has lost. There is also the possibility, I suppose, that everybody in TCG will sort of force WAVX on the two giants--for competitive reasons.
In any event, it's my sense that the real game here is a political one (in the business sense) and that WAVX leadership is woefully inadequate for the task. If there were a Barry Diller or some other guy with deal-making smarts running the show, I'd be buyin the stock. But not this crew. They are an embarrassment.
Hey, Matt: Even the jailbird hecklers agree...
you ought to release me from jail. Truth is, I sorta prefer the company here, but there is an awful lot of Kool-Aid being swilled in Wavoid-Land lately and the cult could use a good dousing from Hamhock's cold-water-bucket.
P.S. I promise not to mention Supercuts in the same sentence with Matt again!
Ruellit: I am unjustly confined...
I groveled the first time I was put here, when it was deserved. This time Matt was wrong and he knows it. So, no. No groveling. Not this time.
Nope.
Matt, old boy...
Look, if you read the Wavoid board, you will see almost daily speculation on whether Howard B. Golden is HhH or not (he isn't). You see almost daily some disparaging remark pointed in my direction (invariably ignoring the fact that I sold the stock at $14 per share--like 95% ago). If you will recall, you had to suspend the board monitor for a time, for dictatorial use of the censor's button. Remember that? Well, I was the object of most of those Snackman deletes. I complained about it privately--to you--and got a "stop being an asshole" response. So I complained on the WAVX board. Sticking me over here forever is a ridiculous remedy. For God's sake, there must of been half a dozen of the cultists themselves who argued against it. Stop being so stubborn about this, just admit you weren't paying attention and restore my posting rights, would ya?
Yer pal,
Matt: How about a furlough?
For, say, a week. You can keep the three-a-day limit (obviously). The Wavoids could use a little humor about now. I promise to be nice.
chwdrhed: How noble...
to pursue such a valiant purpose as serving IHUB. I could never aspire to anything so lofty as that. No, I prefer to study the cult and occasionally taunt the Wavoids and their leaders and, of course, the facilitators, such as our friend Matt. On occasion I believe I have afforded the taunted ones a yuk or two.
I guess I should also cop to taking a bit of a disliking to certain company officers and directors who, in my opinion, are only slightly less greedy than the Rigas family. So, yes, I like to poke fun at them on occasion, too. I hope you don't think less of me for it. Lord knows how I treasure your opinion. Ciao!
chwdrhed: Does meanness qualify...
as a personality disorder? Heck, I not only talk to the Wavoids, I've made a hobby out of taunting them! Sorta like the jailbird hecklers do the inmates, dontcha think?