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This POS market has not been this oversold in 2 years (literally), according to some stochastic measures. There is a big bounce coming in the next few days IMO.
ROTFLMAO
Scott is saying he prefers IMUC's drug to Ponatinib? In what indication? LOL. Are you mistaken here...because this doesn't even make sense.
Scooter must be drinking (heavily) again.
Cohort 4 of the current '113 trial is studying these types of cancers/
Not NSCLC, but other ALK+ cancers.
Who knows, a career enhancing call? Stay tuned..
LOL - why you askin' me?
I can't say....
not because I can't, but just because I can't make a reasonable assessment. It all depends on what the market is willing to pay for these things.... FWIW, biotech stocks and NASDAQ stocks in general look like dogcrap, but ARIA is still making highs. That should tell you something.
The best part of this letter reads: "no more partnerships"
I think, often times, large pharma has their heads so far up their arse, and have so many levels of compliance etc they need to go through, what would normally take a smaller, nimbler company a couple years to push through, large pharma would take 5 years because of all the stupid committees they have.
Not to mention, this is pretty awesome too: "Notably, no ponatinib clinical trial patient to date with chronic-phase CML who received a therapeutic dose of the drug has lost his or her response due to mutational resistance."
$40 would be pretty awesome. There would still be those that would be vehimently opposed to it, however, because its not "$65" and would be in violation of the "poison pill"....LOL!!!
I actually love this stock and company. I am happy with my trading decisions, and cannot complain at all about how I traded this. Darn...I only made nearly 100% in a few months on my last trade here; instead of 110% :)
I still think this is a great investment and 113 is really the key going forward - I just worry about everyone already being "all in". This is not to say I dnt believe in the drugs, I am just saying, from a purely technical standpoint, if there was a Sentiment Indicator here, it would be 100 to none in favor of bulls, to bears. If you had those readings on a global macro level, everyone would be concerned.
And, yes. I want to own ARIA again, but, at what level I have no idea. I guess my reluctance is in thinking with everyone "all in", there might be a sell on the news with Ponatinib as it them becomes a fundamental story - but of course, this will be softened by 113 and the fact that Ponatinib is literally a wonder drug that could find its way into several indications - and this remains a hugely compelling takeover candidate - probably the best one out there in mid cap oncology right now. Having said that, there's probably a lot of"fast money" funds out there that dnt care about what the longer term prospects are....
best of luck to you...i hope you make a ton of dough here. Everyone deserves to. Personally, I would hate to not have any position of size here and see one Monday a.m. a Bloomberg article that Roche made a 27.00 bid for ARIA and The Harv turned it down (like what just happened to HGSI with GSK) - but then again, that would be great news for my friends who still own the stock:)
As I said, she really doesn't follow Ariad very closely. In fact, she doesn't cover Ariad at all.. seems like it is a staffer that covers Ariad for her, as she made three mistakes, imho, didn't know about warrents, claims 18% dilution, and has had a hold from $4 to $17
I'm expecting us to clear 30 handily within a year.
What me worry? Hardly ever - there's nothing clear sailing ahead.
Yes, maybe you should write a research report. That would be a real "hoot".
Can you even name two biotech analysts off the top of YOUR head?
I would love to see ARNA succeed. Just because GekkoWire is such a freakin weisel.
3. Farmer barely references INFI's candidate as a competitor (as iwfal posted, he notes that the drug is basically 17AAG once in the bloodstream
You guys do know that after they get approval for Ponatinib, after one or two quarters, or several quarters for that matter, they're not all of a sudden going to be reporting $1.5 billiion in revenues..right?
Predicting the future on technicals, imo, is foolish - especially in biotech.
Short term, trading moves, yes, can be done. Longer term, you may as well just use the Magic 8 Ball.
Fully agree with this!
I have "1" share...literally, LOL.
(as a "placeholder")
heres Debio's trial for their Hsp:
http://www.debiopharm.com/images/stories/DownloadCenter/120329_FINAL_Poster_study_Debio_0932-201_ELCC.pdf
I think there is literally, about a 10 cent risk in the stock, if Taltorvic doesn't get approval. No one cares. I would think most professional investors already feel there is no value in Rida right now for this indication.
Regardless, even if they get approved, the revenues will probably be barely enough to pay for the cold-cut spread at the Annual Shareholder Meeting.
The stock is valued where it is because of Ponatinib and 113. Its tough to find another company out there that wholly-owns two potential multi billion dollar drugs - I cant fathom the thought that this company doesnt have several large pharma interested in it (and thats the risk i have by not being currently invested )
Regardless of whether or not the FDA approves Taltorvic for single-agent use in the sarcoma indication (I doubt they will), I would think, based on the results presented in the FDA minutes, Merck and Ariad would be better off buying an ice cream truck and driving it around to local little league fields selling King Dong Bars and fudgecicles.....because that venture would probably bring in more bottom line revenues than single-agent Taltorvic.
I still have a hard time with my long position in ARQL. On one hand, they have great cash balance, and I think their market cap is entirely undervalued. Good molecules, solid targets
On the other hard, these clowns are so freakin' slow in drug development. I dn't know whether its their partners fault, or what, but things just creep along at a snails pace at ArQule. They certainly have a giant building on I-93N, though...((sigh))
SNTA expects to give further guidance later this year on partnering.
OT: Adam Feuerstein
LOL
http://www.wall-street.cz/?p=2090
Tivantinib is the ArQule c-Met.
Not to be confused with Tivozanib :)
Its a shame they would have to run a multi-year Phase III when its clear this drug is something special in the indication. The data doesnt lie--cant make this stuff up.
However, as Peter noted, they will have zero difficulty getting pts into such trial---- and more will be asking to be invited. Expanded Use, etc etc
Is this true? How do you know this.
If that is the case, that is really hysterical...because, I can remember in a conference call prior to that financing, Harvey said something to the effect that he would "love" to buy stock but couldnt because of SEC regs etc., (bullchit).
Do you think there is any possibilty of PCYC trying to get an approval based on their Phase 2 data in ibrutinib?
It is clear this drug works wonders. And as pcrutch noted, the KOLs think his drug is magic.
Got to hand it to The Harv. Inasmuch as I was always brutally critical of the way he diluted and ran this company, the guy had balls to take a substantial equity interest in the company with his own personal wealth (his own money). Well, he also has a ton of options paid for by shareholder money, but, he's never sold any of those either.
Just reviewing the 10Ks of some of my other holdings, and these biotech CEOs, Executives, and Directors, are mega-leeches, of epic proportion. For instance, the freeloading leeches at CELLDEX, all own 3% of the company. The CEO, Marucci, owns a whopping 518,000 shares, of which, 475,000 ARE OPTIONS RELATED. The Chairman, Ellberger, well, this maggot owns a whopping 50,000 shares, of which 30,000 ARE OPTIONS RELATED.
It's rare when a CEO actually has his own money in a company, instead of most of the freeloading creeps that run most public companies.
there is always San Antonio breast cancer meeting.
I can't believe that she's too happy about not presenting in front of her colleagues at ASCO.
I agree with that. Undoubtably.
And I am getting nervous of management.
Better than 10-15% ORR, say, close to 20% (which i am doubting bc of CEOs downplaying of guidance toward the lower end over past months), and the stock has a big day higher.
Anything in 10-15% and it sells off big.
Anything below, 10%, nighty-night.
The knucklehead CFO of CLDX told me they submitted a placeholder for '011..back in February. for what its worth.
So, hopefully results are positive
Perhaps the PACE trial Best of ASCO slot was taken by the KERX perifosine trial instead?
Yes, the failed Phase 3 trial of KERX made "Best of ASCO"
Do you think 10-15% ORR would be impressive ( in this pt population)?
Hasnt the CEO been consistently guiding toward the lower end for the past several months?
I was flabbergasted by this error
Debio 0932 HALO Study: CRIS (see link below)
http://www.debiopharm.com/images/stories/DownloadCenter/120329_FINAL_Poster_study_Debio_0932-201_ELCC.pdf