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He said this month with the caveat "If all goes well" which we know rarely happens at ADXS.
Not sure I agree with your statement. The NEO IND was filed shortly after a deal was struck with Amgen. Striking a deal before the IND allows the partner to influence the terms of the IND and subsequent trials, whereas filing an IND first could limit the indication's parterning interest if potential partners don't agree with the trial path laid out in the IND.
"The HOT IND doesn't seem like some big motivation to make a deal."
The period in question in which you thought it went and I thought it went down has not been reported yet.
Well on the CC they said they would be releasing the first HOT IND in a few weeks, which is around now. Hopefully it will come with a much needed deal with upfront cash like our NEO deal with Amgen.
Yes, T-Vec a herpes virus cancer treatment that Amgen bought for $1b, gives us a sense of what they might pay for ADXS.
Good point Batermere, I fall under the frustration category as well.
Yesterday was huge selling by the Russell Indexes, which was known in advance. I would argue that short interest has dropped more as yesterday was an easy way to cover given the selling volume by Russell.
Agree with your sentiment, while its nice to think simple switch of the flick could run us back to $20, the reality is that the current erosion in value reflects the challenges the company faces as a result of poor business decisions and misguided excessive spending by O'Connor. If the HOT IND is filed with a money paying BP deal things could change. Otherwise the current value is an accurate reflection of the financial mismament of the company over the last five years. O'Connor was appropriately replaced, but the question remains why have there been no changes at the Board level given their missteps from a governance perspective. O'Connor was the mastermind in the value destruction, but Sid (The Rat) Ransky stood by and did nothing to stop it early on.
How is the well defined Russell rebalancing and ADXS falling out of the index because of poor management of the company destroying value such that our market cap is now under the index criteria part of organized crime?
I think the selling the last few days may be related to us falling out of the Russell Indexes because our market value has dropped so much we no longer qualify for the Russell small indexes.
They don't call him "The Rat" for nothing.
Well it looks like O'Connor gets the last laugh. As he was pushed out the door for nearly destroying the company and leaving investors with massive looses, he made sure he set himself up with a sweet golden parachute.
Agree Blue, interesting that both NEO and HOT are targeting small cell lung cancer. I can't imagine Amgen letting a competitor partner with ADXS on HOT for the same indication NEO is going after. My guess is we'll see a HOT deal with Amgen announced shortly. It would make sense. Both NEO and HOT are cutting-edge, next generation therapies, so Amgen may want to test them in parallel comparing the same target.
Baby steps to recoup the shareholder value O'Connor destroyed, a HOT deal on similar terms as the Agmen NEO would be good first step...
Amgem has skin in the game with our LM platform and NEO. I can't imagine they would want a competitor to partner with ADXS on our other potential crown jewel, HOT. We know ADXS they are submitting a HOT IND in the next couple weeks. I won't be surprised if an Amgen HOT deal is announced beforehand.
They clearly like the tech and are even promoting it, wouldn't surprise me if it's prelude to them stepping up with a HOT deal. If they like the tech that much, they probably want it all to themselves instead of having someone else partnering with ADXS on HOT.
Good point, we will get some revenue from retaining the manufacturing.
The deal was for global NEO rights. The % ADXS retained is the royalties on sales, which was described as low single digits to mid teens (presumably dependent on the sales volume)
They own the rights to NEO in exchange for giving us up to $500m in milestones and 10-15% royalties on sales. Hopefully they're about to step up and strike a similar deal on HOT.
Why would Amgem tweet this raising awareness of its LM pact with ADXS? Perhaps Amgen is about to step up and stike a follow on deal with ADXS for HOT.
Also, I can see the rationale that if Berlin doesn't get any reasonable monetary offers for AXAL we may be better off shutting it down and getting nothing rather than a low ball figure. Dan gave away international rights (excluding Europe) for nothing, so seeing that low bar he set bidders now probably think they can get Europe and U.S. rights for very little. Berlin probably realizes if he gives Europe and the US away in a weak Dan-like deal, it may reduce what he can command for HOT since there will be another entity developing AXAL which could compete with HOT, so better to shut AXAL down if all he gets is a weak deal (think about the non impact Dan's deals in India, Asia, South America and with the vet construct have had). Berlin is putting an end to watered down giveaway deals.
Underselling and overdelivering, that would be a breath of fresh air considering O'Connor did the exact opposite.
Agreed, a year and a half from when they first said they were looking for an AXAL partner is long enough to seal a deal. Maybe their ultimatum/update on next earnings call is a subtle signal that they are about to close a deal (or else wind the program down)
I'm sure that's what you thought, just like you thought O'Connor was doing a great job and all the tutes supported him.
No, it was actually January 9, 2017 when they first mentioned seeking an EU commercialization deal. Check the Business Outlook press release.
"Pursue research, clinical and commercialization partnerships to optimize the cancer immunotherapy portfolio, including to enable development of lead asset, axalimogene filolusbac, in combination with other novel cancer therapies and to support its registration and potential commercialization in the EU."
Yes, but we know from the company's public statement in January 2017 that they had begun seeking an AXAL commercialzation partner then, so it's been close to a year and a half that they've been engaged in deal conversations.
Hard to tell if a deal on AXAL or HOT is in the works, but if it does happen folks will say in hindsight it was obvious. Specifically I am talking about the recent insider buys, which histocally have correlated with forthcoming price appreciation because insiders know more than we do about what is happening inside a company. Equally as important, at no time during the last five years did insiders put their own money on the line with open market block purchases. Why would they when O'Connors scheme was to take as much free grants from shareholder assets not tied to performance. It's meaningful that insiders just opened their wallets and put skim in the game. It's one things taking free grants, which if the stock goes down, it's not a personal loss. For insiders to put their own money on the line, it would make sense that they would do so if they had strong conviction in the direction of the stock based on business developments they are working on that they believe will come to fruition.
Hope you are right Excel. Things didn't play out as you forecasted with the EU marketing application catalyst, but then again no one expected we would be as low as we are now...better days ahead as the market sees the NEON valuation and hopefully pushes us up toward parity.
Bristol gave Nektar $1 billion in upfront cash in that deal. If ADXS could command an upfront payment of even 1/4 ($250 million) of what Nektar got, that would be an incredible development for a company that for the last five years was nearly run into the ground due to O'Connor's incompetence and reckless financial management.
Blue, hoping we see a HOT deal announced before the IND, which is what happened before the NEO IND (i.e. Amgen deal was announced)
The first step to curbing the trading manipulation IMO is to require funds to disclose their short positions just like they have to do for their long positions.
I didn't make claim that they weren't behind it, so no I can't prove they weren't behind it. On the other hand, you made a claim that they were behind it, therefore, you should back it up with evidence, else it's baseless speculation.
Can you provide your evidence that Adage is connected to the drop in ADXS today?
Folks, we are in good hands. I just went through the conference call transcript. Berlin is an experienced professional and financial steward of our capital. He repeatedly spoke about capital efficiency and making tough choices "based on reality" of the company having limited resources and needing to prioritize their focus on those areas that will create the most value. Makes me sick to my stomach thinking back on all the money wasted and directionless spending O'Connor did and unearned comp he took for himself through less than honest tactics. He was clearly a first time CEO with no experience, granted an effective slick salesman, but once he got his hands on our capital he spent it like a kid in a toy store without strategic foresight or sense of fiduciary duty. Hopefully Berlin will gain back lost investor trust and turn around the company. Interestingly, he said the lung cancer HOT IND is expected to be filed in "several weeks" and this was during the June 7 conference call. It would be nice if the filing came right after a partnership deal similar to the Amgen NEO deal and subsequent IND filing.
Sure he is. I bet he had a short position in Lehman Brothers goimg into 2008 as well.
Hovacre, great points. The obvious question though is why hasn't ADXS found any interested paying partner to strike an AXAL deal. O'Connor publicly stated in a the January 2017 year outlook call that the compnay was starting to seek an AXAL Europe commercialization partner then, so it's been close to a year and a half and no one has steeped up...to the point Lombardo was forced to do a capital raise on the worst terms/lowest stock price in the company's history.
"They can shut the PSA trial down now, not going anywhere."
Mastiff, how is this statement neutral? It sounds very negative to me, especially considering the initial data look positive, as it appears the combo may be more effective than either PSA or Keytruda alone to treat prostate cancer.
Yes, but remember ADXS has stated that those milestones won't happen until the vet construct gets full regulatory approval (currently, only conditional approval has been granted, while full approval contingent on further field studies by PETX).
Because the $100m is just the shares they are selling now. The company has had shares before, just privately held, and those shareholders own 80% of the company. In the NEON IPO they sold 20% of the company for over $100m versus Tony Lombardo selling 20% of ADXS for $18m.
Heck Keith, you said $1 billion is chump change for a BP. I bet there's a BP pulling out their check book now thinking, "$1 billion is chump change for us. We'll buy ADXS for a billion even though the company is valued at $90 million and investors just bought 20% of the company for $20 million. I'm sure our investors won't question it or think we overpaid since a billion is chump change for us."