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***EXCELLENT READ*** The New Science of Parabolic Analysis
http://test.crbindex.com/pubs/trader/btv9n5/btv9n5a6.asp
The opposite of a H&S pattern...bullish.
Could it be? Could the NASTY be setting up another H&S? Target 973? http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[w,a]da...
George...Gold feeling pretty toppy and in need of a breather here at resistance. Out of longs. Looking at silver to rip soon.
augieboo..Re:Gold. Have you seen this yet?
8p ET Wednesday, September 4, 2002
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
J.P. MorganChase has replied to letters from
GATA questioning the firm's accounting for
its exposure to derivatives. The reply,
signed by John Borden, senior vice president
for investor relations, says that "one of
JPMorganChase's goals is to be a leader in
financial disclosure," so GATA hopes to
provide the firm soon with a few opportunities
for disclosure of interest to free and
transparent markets.
The MorganChase letter, addressed to GATA
Chairman Bill Murphy and GATA consultant
Michael Bolser, is appended here.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
August 28, 2002
This is in response to your letters dated
Aug. 5, 2002, and Aug. 4, 2002, respectively,
in which Mr. Bolser alleged that J.P. Morgan
Chase & Co. (the "company") shows "the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency one set of
derivative books and associated risks while
showing their shareholders another."
JPMorgan Chase Bank, a wholly-owned
subsidiary of the company, is a New York
State bank and , as such, reports its
derivative exposure to the Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System (the "Federal
Reserve Board") on a quarterly basis. The
notional amount of its derivatives exposure
is reported to the Federal Reserve Board on
Schedule RC-R, memorandum line 2C. As you
noted, the notional amount of the bank's
derivatives exposure at March 31, 2002, was
$45,234 billion. In the same filing we
reported our total derivatives exposure at
$23, 212 trillion.
In our filings with the Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC) the company noted
(at Page 51 of our 2001 annual report) that
we had, at Dec. 31, 2001, approximately $24
trillion in notional principal amount of
derivative and foreign exchange exposures. We
do not update that number every quarter.
However, we do report every quarter in our
filings with the SEC the mark-to-market
exposure of the company's total derivative
and foreign exchange portfolio, after taking
into consideration the benefit of legally
enforceable master netting agreements. As we
stated in our 2001 annual report, the company
believes the $24 trillion of notional
principal amount of derivative and foreign
exchange exposure "does not represent a proxy
for, and significantly exceeds the possible
credit losses that could arise from, such
transactions." We explain in the 2001 Annual
Report that:
"In terms of credit risk outstanding
exposure, the true message of risk from
derivatives and foreign exchange contracts is
the mark-to-market value of the contracts at
a point in time (i.e., the cost to replace
the contacts at the current market rates
should the counterparty default prior to the
settlement date). For most derivative
transactions, the notional principal amount
does not change hands; it is simply an amount
that is used as a reference upon which to
calculate payments. While notional principal
is the most commonly used volume measure in
the derivatives and foreign exchange markets,
it is not a measure of credit risk." (Page
51.)"
After giving effect to the legally
enforceable master netting agreements, the
company's mark-to-market exposure in its
derivatives and foreign exchange portfolio
was $71 billion at Dec. 31, 2001, and $63
billion at March 31, 2002.
There is no "alchemy" (to use Mr. Bolser's
word) in the numbers we report. The
information we provide to the Federal Reserve
Board is (a) public information (as you both
know since you were able to access that
information) and (b) the gross notional
amount of the derivatives contracts, as the
schedule on which the information is reported
is used to assign a regulatory capital to
these assets. The information we provide to
our shareholders in the reports we file with
the SEC is a net number intended to give our
shareholders meaningful disclosure about,
among other things, the risks associated with
the company's business and the transactions
we enter into with others.
The company believes it has adequately
disclosed the risks associated with being a
counterparty in the derivatives and foreign-
exchange markets. (In addition to providing
the credit exposure amount related to these
contracts, the company also discloses the
maturity profile and credit rating risk
profile of its derivative and foreign
exchange portfolio. Further, the company also
reports in its SEC filings the market risks
associated with its trading activities, by
disclosing the value-at-risk associated with
its trading portfolio, the largest potential
losses in the trading portfolio produced by
the company's stress test scenarios, and a
histogram depicting the number of days on
which the company's market-related revenues
fell within particular ranges.)
The company believes that there is nothing
materially different about risks associated
with its gold derivatives contracts than
those associated with other commodities
derivatives contracts that would merit
separate disclosure in its SEC filings about
its gold derivatives portfolio.
Please be assured that one of JPMorgan
Chase's goals is to be a leader in financial
disclosure. We hope this letter answers your
questions about our various disclosures.
Very truly yours,
JOHN BORDEN
Senior Vice President / Investor Relations
JPMorganChase
***Only $63B?? Their market cap is $49.8B. One misstep and bye bye JPM.***
augieboo..that SOX chart is interesting...a rise to 325 and then a trip back to around 290-300 and we will have another H&S perfectly built. That would lead the NASTY into 3 digits should it breakdown IMO.
4] Could this actually be a bullish pennant developing on the USD?
No way...could be failed support at 106 as early as today.
George I have been stacked up with gold and silver from 2 days ago...think it's time for another shot at 325. Silver seems ridiculuosly cheap.
Softtechie...where have you been? We got wedgies everywhere breaking down. I have Dow 5000-6000, SPX 600 and NASTY 900-1000 and that is my optimistic estimate of the bottom. That doesn't include any unpredictable events.
Re:JPM...I see a rising wedge ready to break soon.
NASTY rising wedge breakdown still points to 1192.
"1308 here we come?"...or 1192?? Wedge measurement is the lows on a break.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=comp,uu[w,a]daclyiay[pb50!b20!f][vc60][iLi14,3!Lh14,3]&a...
George...How do you like the action on yella so far? I think were ready for a run. Especially in silver.
finntroll...no link. Pulled it from the DROOY board on Yahoo.
I don't know Tony. If the USD collapses as many are predicting, I believe the probability increases that they could start a gold standard over fiat money. When people lose faith in their government, they turn to hard assets.
tony...Iraq-Russia...also could be a collaberation between countries to get to Saddam also.
Here is my guess as to what could cause a derivative meltdown.
Malaysia to use gold dinar in trade with Islamic nations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KUALA LUMPUR - Malaysia expects to use gold dinars to trade with Islamic countries from mid-2003, a senior government official said Monday.
Nor Mohamed Yakcop, economic adviser to Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, said Malaysia was now discussing with certain Islamic nations on a new trade settlement system but did not identify the countries.
He said the gold dinar would initially be used to facilitate trade payment between two Islamic nations per transaction as part of efforts to bolster trade among Muslim nations.
Eventually, the gold dinar would be used to settle trade on a multilateral basis, involving more than two countries at any one time, he was quoted as saying by Bernama news agency.
However, Nor Mohamed said the gold dinar would not replace domestic currencies as each would continue to use their own currencies for domestic transactions.
The move would be a strong step forward to unite Muslim nations, he added.
According to Islamic law, the dinar is a specific weight of gold equivalent to 4.3 grams and its value is based on world demand for gold.
Mahathir, who is also finance minister, in March proposed that the gold dinar be used for international trade to prevent a repeat of the currency crisis which devastated Asia in 1997-1998.
The veteran Malaysian premier, who blames "greedy" currency traders for Asia's downfall in the crisis, said local gold prices would determine the exchange rate for the local currency against the dinar.
The planned usage of the gold dinar would come just a few months before Malaysia hosts the Organisation of Islamic Conference summit in October 2003.
AFP
***If all Islaamic countries decided to ditch the dollar and move to a gold standard, look out! Gold will explode.
Saudi threat to withdraw billions in US investments
By Simon English in New York
(Filed: 20/08/2002)
Saudi's richest investors are threatening to pull billions of dollars out of America in anger at suggestions they helped fund Osama bin Laden.
A lawsuit filed by relatives of 900 people who were killed in the September 11 attacks is provoking fury among wealthy Saudis.
The suit filed in a Washington court last week seeking damages of $100,000 billion names three members of the Saudi royal family, including defence minister Prince Sultan bin abd al-Aziz al Saud.
The lawsuit alleges that Saudi money has "for years been funnelled to encourage radical anti-Americanism as well as to fund the al Qaeda terrorists".
Banks and charities named in the suit are calling on Saudi Arabia to review its financial and political ties to the US.
Bishr Bakheet of the Bakheet Financial Consultancy said: "Naming Prince Sultan is the equivalent of saying J Edgar Hoover was a communist spy. Assuming the court proceeds with this lawsuit, the Saudi investment community, already in shock, will start withdrawing their money. People are really going to walk out."
This threat comes as foreign investment in the US dries up because of business scandals, lower corporate earnings and the collapse of the technology boom. According to government figures, foreigners put $124 billion into the US last year, down from $301 billion in 2000.
Economists say the reluctance of wealthy outsiders to expand their business interests in America is a major threat to the world's largest economy.
Saudi investors have $750 billion in the US. A mass walkout would seriously impede the US's attempts to pull away from recession.
A spokesman for the Al Rajhi Investment and Development Corporation, a bank named in the lawsuit, said: "This is an act to extort Saudi money deposited in the United States and a way of meddling in the region."
Fifteen of the 19 hijackers involved in the September assaults have been identified as Saudi, though the government has repeatedly denied any involvement.
Muslim groups in both Saudi Arabia and Britain believe there is a media campaign against the kingdom aimed at pressuring it to support an attack on Iraq.
Zeev...P/C .42 10:30AM... a little rich. 1380 will be a problem area with the 50% Fibo and 50 DMA sitting there.
XAU..Looks more like a rising wedge to me. Either way, it spells trouble.
Why is gold puking?
Doing better...had a horrendous week last week...one of those let me turn this trade into a pile of doo doo. It happens...I scaled back my lots until I find a groove. How are you? Doc's board is getting too quiet. I don't like that.
Yes, I do partna! I have around a 1080 target.
sylvestor..Yep. I think one way they could solve the corp problem is not allow CEO or CFO's to own any options in their company. It is a conflict of interest since they will do anything to buoy the stock price since their interest is tied to the price. This is evident after countless scandals occuring now.
sylvestor...that's because the real terrorists have been the analysts and firms on Fall Street pumping their trash. I.E. Blodgett's 400 call on AMZN and Wayne from Paine Weber putting a 1,000 tag on QCOM and CMRC. Forget Osama bin Laden. These 2 did much more damage than Osama ever did or will do. YEESH! Man, are they scumbags. Feel badly for the average Joe that got smoked in this sea of chaos.
Here comes the ramp.
QLGC getting bitch slapped. Down 2.25 AH...in sympathy?
ROFL! Now I can say I've seen it all. "LONDON (CBS.MW) - Alan Greenspan will be awarded an honorary knighthood from Queen Elizabeth II, the U.K. government announced Wednesday.
WOW! Gold going nuts. Just broke out of the 305-315 range.
All...one thing I am or will be watching during the recovery when it happens it the UST 10yr yield against the TIP 10 yr yield. Currently it is 4.29 and 2.60 respectively. Still a pretty stable spread for the moment which shows no inflation as of yet. However, if this spread begins to widen, it's time to load the boat on gold. Here is a good tracking page.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/C13.html
Gap fill and a spill?? Surprised at the fade this morning.
Gold moving..+3.30
Hmmm? A little panic into the close...Chamber music please....eventually his zero cost inventory sales from earlier writedowns will run out. No one can give continuous prozac reports every quarter.
George...I'm sticking with gold and silver. There are plenty more events that will play out before this nasty bear goes away and gold will benefit.
A thought provoking piece from the past:
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a3a1bfc482052.htm
JFK vs. The Federal Reserve
On June 4, 1963, a virtually unknown Presidential decree, Executive Order 11110, was signed with the authority to basically strip the Federal Reserve Bank of its power to loan money to the United States Federal Government at interest. With the stroke of a pen, President Kennedy declared that the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank would soon be out of business. The Christian Common Law Institute has exhaustively researched this matter through the Federal Register and Library of Congress. We can now safely conclude that this Executive Order has never been repealed, amended, or superceded by any subsequent Executive Order. In simple terms, it is still valid.
When President John Fitzgerald Kennedy - the author of Profiles in Courage - signed this Order, it returned to the federal government, specifically the Treasury Department, the Constitutional power to create and issue currency - money - without going through the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank. President Kennedy's Executive Order 11110 [the full text is displayed further below] gave the Treasury Department the explicit authority:
"to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury."
This means that for every ounce of silver in the U.S. Treasury's vault, the government could introduce new money into circulation based on the silver bullion physically held there. As a result, more than $4 billion in United States Notes were brought into circulation in $2 and $5 denominations. $10 and $20 United States Notes were never circulated but were being printed by the Treasury Department when Kennedy was assasinated. It appears obvious that President Kennedy knew the Federal Reserve Notes being used as the purported legal currency were contrary to the Constitution of the United States of America. "United States Notes" were issued as an interest-free and debt-free currency backed by silver reserves in the U.S. Treasury.
President Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963 and the United States Notes he had issued were immediately taken out of circulation. Federal Reserve Notes continued to serve as the legal currency of the nation. According to the United States Secret Service, 99% of all U.S. paper "currency" circulating in 1999 are Federal Reserve Notes.
Kennedy knew that if the silver-backed United States Notes were widely circulated, they would have eliminated the demand for Federal Reserve Notes. This is a very simple matter of economics. The USN was backed by silver and the FRN was not backed by anything of instrinsic value. Executive Order 11110 should have prevented the national debt from reaching its current level (virtually all of the nearly $9 trillion in federal debt has been created since 1963) if LBJ or any subsequent President were to enforce it. It would have almost immediately given the U.S. Government the ability to repay its debt without going to the private Federal Reserve Banks and being charged interest to create new "money". Executive Order 11110 gave the U.S.A. the ability to, once again, create its own money backed by silver and real value worth something.
Again, according to our own research, just five months after Kennedy was assasinated, no more of the Series 1958 "Silver Certificates" were issued either, and they were subsequently removed from circulation. Perhaps the assassination of JFK was a warning to all future presidents not to interfere with the private Federal Reserve's control over the creation of money. It seems very apparent that President Kennedy challenged the "powers that exist behind U.S. and world finance". With true patriotic courage, JFK boldly faced the two most successful vehicles that have ever been used to drive up debt: 1) war (Viet Nam); and, 2) the creation of money by a privately owned central bank. His efforts to have all U.S. troops out of Vietnam by 1965 combined with Executive Order 11110 would have destroyed the profits and control of the private Federal Reserve Bank...........
George...whats your opinion on the miners here? Hearing some say we could be entering a bear market on gold. I find that hard to believe.
tony, there won't be a summer rally IMO this year due to the 8-14 deadline for CEO signoffs..a lot of nervousness over that. You will probably be seeing a lot of restatement of earnings then and perhaps a good washout to set a bottom. I'm thinking 900-1000 NASTY, 5000-6000 Dow and sub 700 S&P. JMHO.
Holy double bear flags Batman! http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?...
Target 1210
Zeev...could you give GNSS a good, swift kick in the butt for me. Thanks. Geez...