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Recently Dow Jones removed all the stocks in the Industrial Average priced under $10. This effectively eliminated the weak financial sector from the Dow. Had the financial stocks (banks) been left in the Dow, we probably would be down much more. Thus, the word "manipulation" comes to mind.
IDM Pharma, Inc. NASDAQ-GM Institutional Holdings Q4-2008 (source: NASDAQ)
Total Shares Out Standing (millions): 25
Mkt cap ($ millions): $46
Institutional Ownership: 45.1%
Ownership Analysis # Of Holders Shares
Total Shares Held: 15 11,378,546
New Positions: 0 0
Increased Positions: 3 67,600
Decreased Positions: 9 227,560
Holders With Activity: 12 295,160
Sold Out Positions: 4 36,862
PALO ALTO INVESTORS,... 12/31/2008 9,955,857 (133,371) (1.32%) $18,120
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLO... 12/31/2008 685,400 11,000 1.63% $1,247
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV... 12/31/2008 312,760 (35,122) (10.10%) $569
CREDIT AGRICOLE S A 12/31/2008 133,384 0 0.00% $243
NORTHERN TRUST CORP 12/31/2008 93,805 (138) (0.15%) $171
CALIFORNIA PUBLIC EM... 12/31/2008 93,053 38,000 69.02% $169
BARCLAYS GLOBAL INVE... 12/31/2008 60,654 0 0.00% $110
CLARIVEST ASSET MANA... 12/31/2008 31,367 18,600 145.69% $57
J P MORGAN CHASE & C... 12/31/2008 10,000 (21,541) (68.30%) $18
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA... 9/30/2008 1,774 (526) (22.87%) $3
DEUTSCHE BANK AG\ 12/31/2008 492 0 0.00% $1
HITE FUSION FUND, LL... 12/31/2008 0 (398) Sold Out $0
NORTH STAR INVESTMEN... 12/31/2008 0 (1,000) Sold Out $0
UBS 0AG 12/31/2008 0 (3,206) Sold Out
LEHMAN BROTHERS HOLD... 6/30/2008 0 (32,258) Sold Out $0
Yea JT, wish I had been not so right on that one. Yikes, a market for the ages.
Nice JT! Plethora of fiat dollars sends gold to new highs. Just a matter of time IMO. I had tabbed NG at $0.58, currently at $3.29, +467%.
OT: Biotech bargains may be out there
Bernadette Tansey, Chronicle Staff Writer
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Biotechnology dealmakers are swooping into San Francisco this week for the industry's annual kickoff conference, sniffing for opportunities in a financial landscape transformed by the market implosion of 2008.
J.P. Morgan, one of the investment banks that survived while other titans of finance staggered, will host thousands of life sciences executives at the 27th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference at the Westin St. Francis Hotel. For four days starting Monday, participants at the invitation-only event will rehash events of one of the most dramatic years since the meeting originated in 1983.
Biotech startups have been uniquely vulnerable to the credit contraction that followed the collapse of over-leveraged financial institutions such as Lehman Bros., once a strong competitor with J.P. Morgan for biotech banking business. Though some have retreated from the world of biotech finance, the continuing market shakeout has created a ripe field for deals. Larger pharmaceutical and biotech concerns are hunting for bargains among distressed smaller companies that can't raise enough cash to support their drug-development programs.
At the J.P. Morgan conference, 300 public and private companies will formally make their case to investors, potential partners or buyers in scheduled presentations. The bank will also facilitate about 7,000 private meetings for companies looking to team up.
Robbie Huffines, co-head of global healthcare investment banking at J.P. Morgan, said the firm is still firmly behind the biotech sector and its annual showcase event. The banking unit is a division of JPMorgan Chase, which substantially expanded when it took over foundering Washington Mutual in September.
"We're coming through this relatively well and we are maintaining our commitment to our clients, and therefore have not even given a second thought to whether to hold the conference," Huffines said. The number of attendees, aside from companies making presentations, is 4,153. Last year, 5,787 signed up. Two lessons about the biotech sector have emerged from the general free-fall of market values amid the financial turmoil. First, biotech companies can offer a sheltered haven for shareholders during drastic downturns - once they have become big and profitable. But until they do, biotech companies can be perilously risky holdings.
Stark contrast
Steven Burrill, chief executive officer of San Francisco life sciences venture firm Burrill & Co., tracked the stark contrast between the fates of big biotech companies and their small- and mid-cap cousins as the economy unraveled.
Shares in the sector's two largest companies delivered substantial gains in 2008, while the Dow plunged by 35 percent. Amgen of Thousand Oaks (Ventura County), riding good news about its experimental osteoporosis drug, rose 24 percent. Genentech of South San Francisco, buoyed by revenue from its cancer drugs and a purchase offer from majority shareholder Roche, finished the year up 23 percent.
Such gains were not universal among larger biotech companies, but as a class they outperformed the wider market, Burrill said. His weighted index of 20 biotech blue chip companies dropped 9.4 percent in 2008, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 42 percent.
On the other side of the biotech size gap, many small- and mid-cap companies delayed drug projects and slashed staff levels to conserve cash as their share prices plummeted. Burrill's index of small-cap firms dropped 43 percent in 2008, while his mid-cap index fell 31 percent.
Scoring a partnership
But again, the gloom was not universal among smaller biotech firms. Some continued to raise money and score advantageous partnerships even as the Dow whipsawed, banks stopped lending, layoffs hit in waves and consumers refused to part with their money.
KaloBios Pharmaceuticals of South San Francisco managed to complete a $20 million financing round in September, a deal that almost unraveled when Lehman, one of its major backers, filed for bankruptcy. The small biotech, a developer of human antibody drugs, raised an additional $12 million in late December.
In recent Bay Area partnership deals, Mountain View's MAP Pharmaceuticals will receive a cash infusion from British drug firm AstraZeneca to support its work on an experimental drug for asthma in children, and Plexxikon Inc. of Berkeley struck a deal with Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche to co-develop a remedy for polycystic kidney disease.
Still, smaller biotech firms remain under intense pressure as the capital available comes at a higher cost. Shareholders may see their stake diluted by new investors who are in a position to demand larger equity positions for their cash.
Geoffrey Meacham, senior biotechnology analyst at J.P. Morgan, said young biotech companies may be more open to acquisition because the capital markets are so tight. "Historically, small-cap biotechs have not been willing sellers to pharma or big biotech," Meacham said.
But the alternative in this economic climate, he said, may be a death spiral of dilutive capital-raising and selling assets at low rates to survive. "I think you'll see a lot more M&A. In the past they would have said, 'Let's ride it out.' "
Lower purchase prices
The purchase price for those acquisitions could also disappoint shareholders, Huffines said. While buyers may offer a substantial premium, share prices are sagging. "You'll see them get a higher premium, but the aggregate purchase price will almost always be lower than it would have been in a robust market," he said.
On top of financial pressures, the biotech industry faces uncertainties on the policy front. President-elect Barack Obama administration's health care reform proposals could lead to demands for lower drug prices. Congress may pass legislation allowing the approval of generic versions of biologic drugs such as antibodies, opening the door to price competition as these expensive drugs lose patent protection. And new leadership at the Food and Drug Administration could demand more rigorous testing before drugs are approved.
That said, Huffines is optimistic about the industry in the long term. People are less likely to skimp on health care than on other purchases in hard times, and the population is aging. "The demographics are favorable; the unmet (medical) needs are still very significant," Huffines said. "True innovation will be rewarded."
Health care conference
What: 300 biotech and life sciences companies showcase their work.
Who: An audience of about 4,153 venture capitalists, other investors and experts is expected. By invitation only - not open to the public.
Why: Financing deals and partnerships can be forged at the conference and related meetings.
Where: Westin St. Francis Hotel, 335 Powell St., San Francisco.
When: Monday through Thursday
E-mail Bernadette Tansey at btansey@sfchronicle.com.
This article appeared on page C - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle
Did anyone catch Fast Money tonight, 1/9/09? Short interview with Steve Berell (sp?), who said there are many microcap Biotechs selling at amazingly low valuations for the progress they have made.
IDMI: 28.35M outstanding shares, let go with 29M, $10 a share = $290M market cap. Currently at about $1.90. EU should approve Mepact in February, 2009.
Post by tzm on IDM I-Hub m.b.:
Great link Meix but the story of IDM Pharma and the potential of Mepact is very hard to grasp (if you haven't been following closely) and the current stock price is the deal of the century in my opinion. Many shareholders have been under tremendous stress lately because of the undervalued stock price and so I am going to make my case to as why I see the stock, IDMI, as the most undervalued biotech that you will ever come across.
My explanation requires that you have a basic understanding of cancer and the human bodies immune system so if some of this sounds a bit remedial to you, please bear with me.
Let's start with the big "C" word. Cancer is the uncontrolled growth of cells coupled with malignant behavior: invasion and metastasis. What commonly happens in Cancer is that the sick person develops a Tumor in one part of the body and the cells from this tumor travel through the bloodstream/lymphatic system and deposit in another part of the body. When they reach this new part of the body, they multiply and multiply until a whole new tumor has developed. This is called Metastasis.
So back to Mepact and why it's so effective at fighting Osteosarcoma. Let me restate that; why Mepact is so effective at reducing death because of Osteosarcoma. Firstly, Osteosarcoma is a cancer of the bone and it very commonly develops as a tumor in the leg bone of adolescents. This tumor in the bone is treated by removing the tumor with surgery and then a course of chemotherapy. What Mepact does, in this whole course of treatment, is teach the body to kill these teeny tiny cancer cells that have shed from the initial tumor, traveled through the blood stream and landed in the lungs. Again, we are talking about the cancer that has Metastasized. Has the light bulb lit up yet??
You see, it's not the tumor in the bone that kills these unfortunate kids; it's the metastases to the lungs that is most frequently the cause of death. Doctors can remove the tumors in the bone but it's these tiny cancer cells that have been shedding, for lack of a better word, and traveling in the bloodstream that are the real problem. It's most likely that these cancer cells have been trying to get a foot hold in the patients lungs for many months before the patient has even felt pain in the leg and much longer before they have even been diagnosed with Osteosarcoma.
Mepact is an immunotherapy. In other words, it teaches the patients own body to fight and destroy the cancer cells. Mepact does not destroy the cancerous cells in the bone and Mepact is not effective at destroying large tumors in the lungs (i.e. once they've gotten a foothold and grown); Mepact destroys Microscopic Pulmonary Metastases. Let me restate that; Mepact teaches the body to destroy Microscopic Pulmonary Metastases. In a way, it's almost more of a preventative. That is, if you are diagnosed with a cancer that commonly metastasizes to the lungs then you would be well served to start a course of Mepact because then your body will start to learn how to kill these tiny cells that are probably trying to set up shop in your lungs.
Pulmonary metastases is present in 60% of the autopsies of patients that die of breast cancer. That light bulb should be getting brighter.
So what part of the immune system does Mepact train to fight?? Ans. The Macrophages. And what are Macrophages? You're going to have to go to wiki or something for that one because I'm getting tired of typing but here's their quick definition:
"Macrophages (Greek: big eaters, from makros "large" + phagein "eat"; abbr. MΦ) are white blood cells within tissues, produced by the division of monocytes. Human macrophages are about 21 microns in diameter.[1] Monocytes and macrophages are phagocytes, acting in both non-specific defense (or innate immunity) as well as to help initiate specific defense mechanisms (or cell-mediated immunity) of vertebrate animals. Their role is to phagocytose (engulf and then digest) cellular debris and pathogens either as stationary or mobile cells, and to stimulate lymphocytes and other immune cells to respond to the pathogen."
Well that's all of the hollering from a mountain top that I'm going to do tonight but this post should give you a good basis to as why I am invested in this stock. IDM Pharma is most likely on the auction/partner block but that does not mean that it won't be a lively auction and no matter what the stock price trades at, I know that I am a partial owner in a cancer drug with big time potential.
"Biotechnology companies that can't cut expenses enough or obtain financing will be bought by large pharmaceutical companies and bigger biotechs at bargain-basement prices reflecting the lowest market valuations since 1990."
bit from Bloomberg News 1/6/09 article "Report warns 100 biotech firms to disappear this year."
I guess this is part of the reason IDM is spinning it's wheels right now at about $1.70, even after the positive EU "approval" news.
GST @$0.64, +$0.20, +47%. New well is a hottie. See previous post for details.
Word is 2009 may be a good year: but 2008 was bad:
Dow Industrials -34.7%
S&P 500 -39.3%
S&P Midcap -38.9%
Dow Transports -24.8%
Dow Utilities 31.7%
NYSE Composite -41.8%
Nasdaq 100 -42.4%
Russell 2000 -37.0%
Amex Composite -43.0%
DJ Wilshire 5000 -39.8%
Gold +4.25%
Foreign Markets
Paris -42.7%
Frankfurt -52.2%
Toronto -36.2%
London -32.0%
Japan -42.1%
Zurich -34.1%
Sydney -44.1%
Shanghai B -69.7%
Hong Kong -48.9%
Quotes (spot gold).
2001 -- $279.00
2002 -- $348.20
2003 -- $416.10
2004 -- $438.40
2005 -- $518.90
2006 -- $638.00
2007 -- $838.00
2008 -- $889.00
Happy New Year 2009 JT and all PP posters and many Happy Returns!
OT. www.businessjive.com re: "naked" shorting et. al.
Part of the reason we are still only @$1.84 after EMEA "approval." To much uncertainty.
<<About IDM Pharma: The Company believes it has adequate cash resources to support its operations into the first half of 2009 based on its current development and operating plans. The Company does not currently have operational sales and marketing infrastructure for L-MTP-PE and does not currently have plans or sufficient funds to secure this capability. The Company continues to evaluate strategic alternatives, which may include seeking strategic partners, a merger and/or the sale of all or part of its operations and assets, or raising additional capital to secure operational sales and marketing infrastructure for L-MTP-PE.>>
At least the cancer patients can use L-MTP-PE in their struggle to survive. This is huge. I know two people who have died from cancer this year, one 21 years old and the other about 50. Horrible.
I am praying for >$8.50 a share in buy-out, but based on current IDM share price and the massive financial deleveraging we are witnessing in 2008 and into 2009, it could be between $5.50 to $7.50. JMHO.
At about 28M shares outstanding (high end) 28M x $8.50=$238M market cap.
IDM Pharma Provides Update on Mifamurtide (MEPACT(R), L-MTP-PE) European Regulatory Status
Positive Opinion Formally Adopted by CHMP
IRVINE, Calif., Dec. 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- IDM Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: IDMI) today announced that the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) formally adopted a positive opinion for mifamurtide (L-MTP- PE), known as MEPACT(R) in Europe, for the treatment of patients with non- metastatic, resectable osteosarcoma, a rare and often fatal bone tumor that typically affects children and young adults. The formal adoption of the positive opinion follows the CHMP recommendation previously announced in November. The marketing authorization is likely to be issued by the European Commission in Q1 2009.
Granting of the centralized marketing authorization will allow L-MTP-PE to be marketed in the 27 Member States of the European Union (EU), as well as in Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway. L-MTP-PE would be the first approved new treatment in more than 20 years for patients with osteosarcoma. L-MTP-PE was granted orphan medicinal product status in Europe in 2004. Therefore, under European pharmaceutical legislation, L-MTP-PE is entitled to a period of 10 years market exclusivity in respect of the approved indication.
The Company is expected to implement a pharmacovigilance plan for MEPACT, as is normally required for all medicinal products, as part of the marketing authorization. Full details of the CHMP positive opinion, including safety information and the approved indication for MEPACT can be found at http://www.emea.europa.eu/htms/human/opinion/opinion.htm.
L-MTP-PE U.S. Regulatory Status
As previously announced, in the United States the Company continues to work with the Children's Oncology Group as well as external experts and advisors to gather patient follow up data from the Phase 3 clinical trial of L-MTP-PE and to respond to other questions in the non-approvable letter the Company received from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The Company expects to submit the amended New Drug Application (NDA) in the first quarter of 2009 given the recent focus on completing review activities for the Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) in the European Union.
L-MTP-PE was granted orphan drug status in the United States in 2001 and the NDA was submitted to FDA in October 2006 and was accepted for review in December 2006.
About Osteosarcoma
Between two and three percent of all childhood cancers are osteosarcoma. Because osteosarcoma usually develops from osteoblasts, it most commonly affects children and young adults experiencing their adolescent growth spurt. Boys and girls have a similar incidence rate until later in their adolescence, when boys are more commonly affected. While most tumors occur in larger bones, such as the femur, tibia, and humerus, and in the area of the bone that has the fastest growth rate, they can occur in any bone. The most common symptom is pain, but swelling and limited movement can occur as the tumor grows.
Osteosarcoma is an orphan disease with fewer than 1,000 new cases diagnosed in the United States each year. A similar incidence of the disease exists in Europe. According to the Children's Oncology Group, the survival of children with osteosarcoma has remained at 60-65 percent since the mid-1980s. The standard treatment for osteosarcoma is tumor resection with combination chemotherapy before and after surgery.
About IDM Pharma
IDM Pharma is focused on the development of innovative cancer products that either destroy cancer cells by activating the immune system or prevent tumor recurrence by triggering a specific adaptive immune response. IDM Pharma is dedicated to maximizing the full therapeutic and commercial potential of each of its innovative products to address the needs of patients and the physicians who treat these patients.
The Company believes it has adequate cash resources to support its operations into the first half of 2009 based on its current development and operating plans. The Company does not currently have operational sales and marketing infrastructure for L-MTP-PE and does not currently have plans or sufficient funds to secure this capability. The Company continues to evaluate strategic alternatives, which may include seeking strategic partners, a merger and/or the sale of all or part of its operations and assets, or raising additional capital to secure operational sales and marketing infrastructure for L-MTP-PE.
For more information about the company and its products, visit http://www.idm-pharma.com.
IDMI @$1.84. SUMMARY OF POSITIVE OPINION for MEPACT 12/18/08
European Medicines Agency
Evaluation of Medicines for Human Use
7 Westferry Circus, Canary Wharf, London E14 4HB, UK
Tel. (44-20) 74 18 84 00 Fax (44-20) 74 18 8613
E-mail: mail@emea.europa.eu http://www.emea.europa.eu
© European Medicines Agency, 2008. Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.
London, 18 December 2008
Doc.Ref. EMEA/CHMP/668423/2008
COMMITTEE FOR MEDICINAL PRODUCTS FOR HUMAN USE
SUMMARY OF POSITIVE OPINION for MEPACT
International Nonproprietary Name (INN): mifamurtide
On 18 December 2008 the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) adopted a positive opinion, recommending to grant a marketing authorisation for the medicinal product MEPACT, 4 mg, powder for suspension for infusion, intended for the treatment of osteosarcoma. MEPACT was designated as an orphan medicinal product on 21 June 2004. The applicant for this medicinal product is IDM Pharma, S.A. The active substance of MEPACT is mifamurtide, an immunomodulator (ATC code: L03AX15). Mifamurtide activates monocytes and macrophages and this may be the mechanism responsible for its antitumour activity.
The benefits with MEPACT when used in conjunction with combination chemotherapy are its effect in terms of overall survival, as observed in a randomised controlled trial when compared to chemotherapy alone. Safety and efficacy have been assessed in studies of patients 2 to 30 years of age
at initial diagnosis. The most common side effects were anaemia, anorexia, headache, dizziness, tachycardia, hypertension, hypotension, dyspnoea, tachypnoea, cough, vomiting, diarrhoea,
constipation, abdominal pain, nausea, hyperhidrosis, myalgia, arthralgia, back pain, pain in extremity, fever, chills, fatigue, hypothermia, pain, malaise, asthenia, and chest pain. A pharmacovigilance plan for MEPACT, as for all medicinal products, will be implemented as part of the marketing authorisation.
The approved indication is: “MEPACT is indicated in children, adolescents and young adults for the treatment of high-grade resectable non-metastatic osteosarcoma after macroscopically complete surgical resection. It is used in combination with post-operative multi-agent chemotherapy. Safety and
efficacy have been assessed in studies of patients 2 to 30 years of age at initial diagnosis”. It is proposed that MEPACT treatment should be initiated and supervised by specialist physicians experienced in the diagnosis and treatment of osteosarcoma. Detailed recommendations for the use of this product will be described in the Summary of Product Characteristics (SPC) which will be published in the European Public Assessment Report (EPAR) and will be available in all official European Union languages after the marketing authorisation has been
granted by the European Commission.
The CHMP, on the basis of quality, safety and efficacy data submitted, considers that there is a favourable benefit to risk balance for MEPACT and therefore recommends the granting of the marketing authorisation.
Summaries of positive opinion are published without prejudice to the Commission Decision, which will normally be issued within 67 days from adoption of the Opinion.
Applicants may request a re-examination of any CHMP opinion, provided they notify the EMEA in
writing of their intention to request a re-examination within 15 days of receipt of the opinion.
SUMMARY OF POSITIVE OPINION for MEPACT 12/18/08
European Medicines Agency
Evaluation of Medicines for Human Use
7 Westferry Circus, Canary Wharf, London E14 4HB, UK
Tel. (44-20) 74 18 84 00 Fax (44-20) 74 18 8613
E-mail: mail@emea.europa.eu http://www.emea.europa.eu
© European Medicines Agency, 2008. Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.
London, 18 December 2008
Doc.Ref. EMEA/CHMP/668423/2008
COMMITTEE FOR MEDICINAL PRODUCTS FOR HUMAN USE
SUMMARY OF POSITIVE OPINION for MEPACT
International Nonproprietary Name (INN): mifamurtide
On 18 December 2008 the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) adopted a positive opinion, recommending to grant a marketing authorisation for the medicinal product MEPACT, 4 mg, powder for suspension for infusion, intended for the treatment of osteosarcoma. MEPACT was designated as an orphan medicinal product on 21 June 2004. The applicant for this medicinal product is IDM Pharma, S.A. The active substance of MEPACT is mifamurtide, an immunomodulator (ATC code: L03AX15). Mifamurtide activates monocytes and macrophages and this may be the mechanism responsible for its antitumour activity.
The benefits with MEPACT when used in conjunction with combination chemotherapy are its effect in terms of overall survival, as observed in a randomised controlled trial when compared to chemotherapy alone. Safety and efficacy have been assessed in studies of patients 2 to 30 years of age
at initial diagnosis. The most common side effects were anaemia, anorexia, headache, dizziness, tachycardia, hypertension, hypotension, dyspnoea, tachypnoea, cough, vomiting, diarrhoea,
constipation, abdominal pain, nausea, hyperhidrosis, myalgia, arthralgia, back pain, pain in extremity, fever, chills, fatigue, hypothermia, pain, malaise, asthenia, and chest pain. A pharmacovigilance plan for MEPACT, as for all medicinal products, will be implemented as part of the marketing authorisation.
The approved indication is: “MEPACT is indicated in children, adolescents and young adults for the treatment of high-grade resectable non-metastatic osteosarcoma after macroscopically complete surgical resection. It is used in combination with post-operative multi-agent chemotherapy. Safety and
efficacy have been assessed in studies of patients 2 to 30 years of age at initial diagnosis”. It is proposed that MEPACT treatment should be initiated and supervised by specialist physicians experienced in the diagnosis and treatment of osteosarcoma. Detailed recommendations for the use of this product will be described in the Summary of Product Characteristics (SPC) which will be published in the European Public Assessment Report (EPAR) and will be available in all official European Union languages after the marketing authorisation has been
granted by the European Commission.
The CHMP, on the basis of quality, safety and efficacy data submitted, considers that there is a favourable benefit to risk balance for MEPACT and therefore recommends the granting of the marketing authorisation.
Summaries of positive opinion are published without prejudice to the Commission Decision, which will normally be issued within 67 days from adoption of the Opinion.
Applicants may request a re-examination of any CHMP opinion, provided they notify the EMEA in
writing of their intention to request a re-examination within 15 days of receipt of the opinion.
the "iceberg" is Mepact approval in Europe, however many tips of the iceberg there might be.
However, I do find it interesting that BMY is paying $240M in 2008 and 2009 to EXEL in their partnership, and the equivalent price for the whole company of IDM is $8.50 a share. That does not make sense to me at this point.
(We will use 28M shares outstanding for IDMI (which is on the high side- just to be safe):
28M x $8.50 a share= $238M market cap)
So BMY is paying $240M in 2008 and 2009 under the EXEL partnership.
<<The South San Francisco biotech company will receive an initial payment of $195 million from Bristol-Myers under the partnership terms, followed by $45 million in 2009.>>
We will use 28M shares outstanding for IDMI (which is on the high side- just to be safe):
28M x $8.50 a share= $238M market cap;
28M x $10.00= $280M.
EXEL @$4.95 has a market cap of $522.7M.
Exelixis, Inc. is a biotechnology company engaged in the development of differentiated pharmaceutical products for the treatment of cancer and other serious diseases. Exelixis has a pipeline of compounds in various stages of development that will potentially treat cancer, renal disease and various metabolic and cardiovascular disorders. The Company has 11 compounds in clinical development: XL647, XL880, XL820, XL184, XL518, XL281, XL019, XL844, XL228, XL147 and XL765. The Company has ongoing commercial collaborations with several pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, including SmithKline Beecham Corporation (which does business as GlaxoSmithKline), Bristol-Myers Squibb.
IDMI @ 28M shares outstanding would be @ $18.50 per share for a market cap of $518M.
OT- re: hedge funds closing: Bay Area and U.S. hedge funds bleed, one is gone:
Bottom Line - Andrew S. Ross - S.F. Chronicle
Bay Area, U.S. hedge funds bleeding, one's gone
Thursday, December 11, 2008
There probably won't be many tears for Larkspur's Copper River Management LLC. The $1 billion hedge fund's partiality to short selling earned it obloquy, lawsuits and, ultimately, death.
No trace of company personnel could be found for comment Wednesday, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the fund is "liquidating and returning funds to investors." The only sign of life was a forlorn logo on the company's Web site. The cause of demise? Some observers predicted it after the company, formerly known as Rocker Partners, got caught on the wrong side of derivative trades with the going-bankrupt Lehman Bros. Others pronounced the patient terminal when the feds banned short selling of financial stocks in September.
If Copper River's death was singular, there are other Bay Area hedge funds in serious trouble, if not quite as fatal. Most notable is San Francisco's $30 billion Farallon Capital Management LLC, whose funds are reportedly down about 30 percent this year. Recently Farallon, ranked as one of the largest hedge fund companies in the world, erected a "gate" on redemptions, limiting the amount money investors can withdraw. Other giant hedge funds with offices in the Bay Area, like Fortress Investment Group, have put up similar "gates" as their woes mount.
"This is happening all over the industry," said Vincent Delurad, an analyst at TrimTabs Investment Research in Sausalito. He estimated U.S. hedge fund assets have shrunk by nearly 50 percent this year, from $1.9 trillion in assets to $1.1 trillion. With December shaping up to be the wickedest month, Delurad estimates redemptions will reach as high as $250 billion before the year is out, not to mention up to $700 million in trading losses. "Funds are running out of money," he said.
But for some, where there's a problem, there's an opportunity. The COO of Hong Kong's Tai Tam alternative asset management firm was spotted recently in San Francisco looking for $100 million from investors to start up a new Asia-focused hedge fund.
OT- Bristol-Myers joins Exelixis for cancer drugs
Bernadette Tansey, Chronicle Staff Writer
Saturday, December 13, 2008
(12-12) 18:20 PST -- Shares in biotechnology company Exelixis Inc. rose nearly 33 percent Friday on news that major pharmaceutical firm Bristol-Myers Squibb will collaborate on the development of two experimental cancer drugs discovered through Exelixis' automated screening process.
The South San Francisco biotech company will receive an initial payment of $195 million from Bristol-Myers under the partnership terms, followed by $45 million in 2009.
The deal is one of the bright spots in a gloomy picture for small and midsize biotechnology companies in the current economic downturn, which has made investors wary of risk and capital hard to raise. Exelixis laid off 78 employees in November to conserve its dwindling cash reserves after its former partner on the two cancer drugs, GlaxoSmithKline, decided to bow out of the collaboration.
The setback was short lived, Exelixis chief executive George Scangos said. Bristol-Myers and other companies quickly expressed interest in the two compounds, he said. "There were multiple bidders," Scangos said.
The salvation of many struggling biotech outfits during the recession will come from big pharmaceutical companies on the hunt for innovative medicines to replace their best-selling drugs, many of which are soon to lose patent protection.
Bristol-Myers has had earlier partnerships with Exelixis dating to 1999. The New Jersey pharmaceutical firm's other recent Bay Area deals are part of a plan to transform itself into a biopharma' company through alliances with smaller cutting-edge companies, said Dr. Jeremy Levin, an external licensing executive. For example, in May Bristol-Myers said it would purchase Kosan Biosciences of Hayward and acquire Kosan's stable of experimental cancer drugs.
Scangos said Bristol-Myers will now pick up 65 percent of the cost of a late-stage clinical trial of Exelixis' most advanced product, XL 184, which is being tested in a form of thyroid cancer. If the drug is approved, Exelixis would share in the profit from U.S. sales and receive double-digit royalties on foreign sales.
Bristol-Myers will also fund future development of the second compound, XL 281, in a variety of solid tumors. Exelixis would receive milestone payments of up to $315 million and double-digit royalties on worldwide sales.
In spite of the cash infusion from the Bristol-Myers deal, Scangos said Exelixis might further reduce its staff of 680 employees. The company spends about $80 million a year on a drug discovery unit that uses automated screening techniques to identify compounds that might help treat disease. Its partners in the development of those compounds include Genentech Inc. and Wyeth.
Exelixis will end the year with $280 million in cash, Scangos said. The company's shares rose $1.22 to close at $4.95 Friday.
E-mail Bernadette Tansey at btansey@sfchronicle.com.
This article appeared on page C - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle
Re: dumping. I guess about 155k+ shares were dumped starting Thursday, 12/11, around noon, and continuing through today, based on the five day hourly chart at bigcharts.com. We bounced off the $1.50 low to close at $1.66. In my paranoia I speculate "someone" is trying to shake the tree and drive IDM lower. Hard to figure.
Synchronoss Technologies reports sharp drop in 3rd-qtr earnings on lower revenue from AT&T
Wednesday November 5, 2008.
BRIDGEWATER, N.J. (AP) -- Synchronoss Technologies Inc., a transaction management software supplier for communications companies, said third-quarter profit fell more than 70 percent on declining revenue related to major customer AT&T Inc.
The company's earnings dropped sharply to $2.3 million, or 7 cents per share, from $8 million, or 24 cents per share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue fell to $26.3 million from $34.5 million.
Excluding one-time items, the company said it would have earned 11 cents per share, compared with 26 cents in the same quarter last year.
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected 10 cents, on average, and revenue of $26.8 million. Analysts typically exclude one-time charges and gains.
Synchronoss said business related to Dallas-based AT&T, the exclusive U.S. carrier of Apple Inc.'s iPhone, represented 66 percent of revenue in the third quarter, down from 67 percent in the second quarter and 78 percent in the year-ago quarter.
Shares fell 65 cents, or 7.9 percent, to close at $7.61.
SNCR @ $9.19; p.o. $15.50; "bear trap."
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?SNCR
sncr @$9.16, +16%. Online activations with ATT: http://www.gearlog.com/2008/12/att_offering_home_iphone_activ.php
Bay Area and U.S. hedge funds bleed, one is gone:
Bottom Line - Andrew S. Ross - S.F. Chronicle
Bay Area, U.S. hedge funds bleeding, one's gone
Thursday, December 11, 2008
There probably won't be many tears for Larkspur's Copper River Management LLC. The $1 billion hedge fund's partiality to short selling earned it obloquy, lawsuits and, ultimately, death.
No trace of company personnel could be found for comment Wednesday, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the fund is "liquidating and returning funds to investors." The only sign of life was a forlorn logo on the company's Web site. The cause of demise? Some observers predicted it after the company, formerly known as Rocker Partners, got caught on the wrong side of derivative trades with the going-bankrupt Lehman Bros. Others pronounced the patient terminal when the feds banned short selling of financial stocks in September.
If Copper River's death was singular, there are other Bay Area hedge funds in serious trouble, if not quite as fatal. Most notable is San Francisco's $30 billion Farallon Capital Management LLC, whose funds are reportedly down about 30 percent this year. Recently Farallon, ranked as one of the largest hedge fund companies in the world, erected a "gate" on redemptions, limiting the amount money investors can withdraw. Other giant hedge funds with offices in the Bay Area, like Fortress Investment Group, have put up similar "gates" as their woes mount.
"This is happening all over the industry," said Vincent Delurad, an analyst at TrimTabs Investment Research in Sausalito. He estimated U.S. hedge fund assets have shrunk by nearly 50 percent this year, from $1.9 trillion in assets to $1.1 trillion. With December shaping up to be the wickedest month, Delurad estimates redemptions will reach as high as $250 billion before the year is out, not to mention up to $700 million in trading losses. "Funds are running out of money," he said.
But for some, where there's a problem, there's an opportunity. The COO of Hong Kong's Tai Tam alternative asset management firm was spotted recently in San Francisco looking for $100 million from investors to start up a new Asia-focused hedge fund.
Hi JT! Glad to hear from you. GST @$0.34, has Belin #1 well coming on line this month. Comments? Also IDMI had great news, see my previous posts re: same, although pps and volume are very disappointing to date. Maybe to much till European approval of Mepact in February or March, 2009. IDM should be bought out, praying for $8.50+.
Gastar Exploration Announces East Texas Drilling Results
Wednesday November 19, 2008, 6:00 am EST
Yahoo! Buzz Print
HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Gastar Exploration Ltd. (NYSE Alternext US: GST) and (TSX: YGA - News) today announced that it has successfully drilled the Belin #1 well, a deep Bossier test, to a total depth of 18,800 feet and has logged approximately 150 net feet of pay in the middle and lower Bossier formations.
The Belin #1 well contains three pay zones within the lower Bossier formation that, based on log analysis, have the highest measured porosity -- up to 25% -- of any wells drilled by Gastar in the deep Bossier play. The well also encountered two middle Bossier sands, including the Lanier Sand, in a downdip location in a new fault block with indicated pay based on log analysis.
The well is expected to be completed and producing within 30 days. Gastar owns a 52% working interest before payout (40% net revenue interest before payout) in the Belin #1.
“The Belin #1 well has the potential to be Gastar’s best well to date in terms of estimated recoverable reserves and potential flowrate in the Hilltop area,” said J. Russell Porter, Gastar’s President and CEO.
“We plan to complete the well in the two deepest zones first, and we expect that to be a high-rate completion. We are also very encouraged by the fact that the Lanier Sand was present and has been shown to be productive in a downthrown fault block from the Wildman Trust #3 well, where the Lanier Sand was recently recompleted at an initial rate of 21 MMcf per day.”
In addition, Gastar is currently drilling a sidetrack to the LOR #7 and expects to reach total depth close to year end. Gastar has a 50% working interest before payout (37.5% net revenue interest before payout) in the LOR #7.
Yes, physical gold, I prefer coins, rather than gdx. But I am monitoring some gold and metals stocks:
nem
auy
sa
aauk
aem
kgc
rgld
gold
asa
hui
abx
gfi.
Also some uranium stocks are priced as if they are going out of business, e.g. dnn.
just about everything in this bear market is making me nervous these days, except gold.
IDMI: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33968151
posted by tzm on i-hub idmi mb.
IDMI @$1.97. See previous post re: European approval of "Mepact" (L-MTP-PE or Junovan) either in February or March 2009. Rodman and Renshaw analyst projects $20M revenue tops in Europe alone. About 29M shares outstanding, x5 revs of $20M= $100M. $100M div by 29M shares= about $3.50 a share.
IDM is either going to be bought out or partner, probably buy-out, since CEO and other executive officers are working part-time at IDM.
I have admit that "Mr. Market" is stumping me re: current share price of about $2.00 on this one. Of course overall market is in a massive deleveraging.
I own IDMI, do your own DD. GLTA
How true, tzm. Thanks for that! Happy Thanksgiving to all. Bow
DMI @ $1.87, 11/24/08; S-$1.74; R-3.63 (9/2/08).
The trend of IDM has continued even after the recommendation for approval in Europe last week on November 17, 2008 for L-MTP-PE.
The trend continues until it is countermanded by a reversal structure.
So far, we have had no reversal signal, which would be evidenced by a break-out over $3.63. IDMI continues to trade in bear territory, with selling pressure still high. Buying Power Index remains minimal, even with todays gain, there was no volume.
Based on all the above, it's obvious that the wait for the actual approval in February or March 2009 is too long away.
Also, at this time, deflation is here now, with cash king. So a three to four month wait for approval is too long for buyers to step up to IDM.
1. I hope IDM did not put itself behind the eight ball by allowing Walbert et. al. to work only part-time at IDM. That is, any offer for buy-out would be a low ball because of limited options available to IDM.
2. Last week Rodman & Renshaw analyst gave $20m annual revenue tops for L-MTP-PE (I assume only in Europe, as this was the issue). I know R&R is boilerroom, but right now it is all we have to work with.
3. About 29M shares outstanding of IDM.
5 x $20M rev= $100M.
100 div 29=$3.45
4. So in a "normal" investment environment, using "normal" metrics of "valuation," IDM would be worth about $3.45 a share JUST FOR REVENUES IN EUROPE FOR L-MTP-PE.
5. IDM has no debt and around $18M in cash, or about $0.50 per share, as of 10/1/08 (source: Yahoo).
6. As meixatech, tzm and others have posted IDM-2101 is the jewel of this company. Yet still maybe ten or so years away from production IF all the forth coming trails go well.
7. Heaven knows what the buy-out premium will be with a part-time executive management and in this economic environment.
JMHO, >$8.00 in buy-out, 29M shrs x 8= $232M market cap.
Any comments on price action from $2.50 back to $1.74 after announcement?
KITD Q3-2008 Institutional Ownership: 0.6%; 661K shrs.
Total Shares Out Standing (millions): 115
Market Capitalization ($ millions): $25
Institutional Ownership: 0.6%
Price (as of 11/18/2008) 0.215
Ownership Analysis # Of Holders Shares
Total Shares Held: 5 661,440
New Positions: 2 352,500
Increased Positions: 3 427,500
Decreased Positions: 1 116,554
Holders With Activity: 4 544,054
Sold Out Positions: 1 116,554
Owner Name
Select a name below for more information. Date Shares Held Change
(Shares) % Change
(Shares) Value
($1000)
WILLIAM HARRIS INVES... 9/30/2008 280,000 280,000 New $60
BALDWIN BROTHERS INC... 9/30/2008 267,200 75,000 39.02% $57
PARADIGM CAPITAL MAN... 9/30/2008 72,500 72,500 New $16
OVERBROOK MANAGEMENT... 9/30/2008 41,740 0 0.00% $9
WITTER WILLIAM D INC 9/30/2008 0 (116,554) Sold Out $0
IDM is going to be sold. "Walbert said the company is currently in talks with various parties but declined to comment on the nature of the deals or the companies. Last December, IDM Pharma had said it was planning to manage its cash burn and evaluate strategic alternatives as it expected significant additional costs related to the bone cancer drug."
Walbert (CEO) and executive management working "part-time." IDM does not have the resources to manufacture and market L-MTP-PE in Europe. And as many have said on this mb, in the pipeline, IDM-2101 is the gem of the company.
Buy-out price? I am hoping for >$8 per share (JMHO- it would be a steal) but it could be about $7 or so in this horrific economic environment of late 2008, which I believe will get worse in 2009.
<<I would think that the probability of non-approval was built into her estimate though.>> I disagree. I think her $11 p.t. was dependent upon FDA approval.
And remember when Bassett was following IDM, she stated she believed that "Junovan" could become a "product platform," with many different applications.
RnR's est. is only for L-MTP-PE, does not include other pipleline such as IDM-2101.
So $3.50 est x2= $7.00+?
IDMI @$2.54; +64%. JMHO: $7.00 to $10+ on buyout of company. See press releases. GLTA