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I still need that -2-3% correction to reload
it looks like will get it one of these days, and that will be November, as I doubt this will go vertically to 250, although I've been corrected before by the market, even recently, ugh
-2-3% and I'm a happy camper
the markets' wizards are celebrating Halloween I guess
all looks like magic today
no one can believe it what they heard (BOJ no-choice BTW inflating) and see (gap of markets above resistances - old game they play BTW as well)
Trick - (if you were short..)
or Treat - if you were long
in any event, party tonight , be happy, make it wicked
Sounds like you ..were short bud
or missed it all
I don't sense content in your post verbose
All I sense is anger.
I was left behind but I'm not angry, I got a pound of $$$
1. I have been referring to our major US market indices like SPY or QQQ. That's what I trade, and they quite reflect the world, so don't include cherry-picks other markets, I didn't talk about Nikkei although even that shoot insane (7%).
2. Trading means markets DO NOT go in one direction STRAIGHT.
And if you look in a chart you will see that the markets went nearly vertical upward, no "looking back".
Now, if you have evidence, from your cockiness it looks like you have, then please point me to that evidence I might have missed.
Point me in the chart where the markets went back for traders to reload.
Next time tone your post a notch or two down, make it less aggressive, as I'm NOT your enemy, NOT your opponent, and I do NOT trade against you (consciously).
Please trade long and make money, I have nothing against you.
And as for me missing a reload, meh, no biggie. It happened to me so many times, I am used to all kind of such pleasures..
someone said... "look ma it's not manipulated anymore"
"look at how it TRADES without the fed "
First off, it didn't trade whatsoever - (and that's the reason I got left behind, exiting in mid shoot thinking will trade even a bit so - had it trade and not just shoot up like a rocket, I would've gotten back in)
And of course, I differed , and gave the example
the lies the officials tell us (all of them and always) and the lesson we should learn
today we have another evidence of lies and manipulation
On the plus side, yes there is one, we can all (AND SHOULD, ALL OF US) pile squarely on ONE side of the market with our trades, the LONG side and trade that EXCLUSIVELY
I guarantee you one thing, yes guaranteed - if this would happen, if all of us, or even most of us, will trade long, no amount of QE and money printing can move the market up anymore, nada
I am not sure if the market will crash or implode or go sideways in range, but one thing will be sure, the market will not rise even a penny, and at the very minimum not rising above real inflation.
Too bad lot of us got hung on the myth of market being free and functioning by so and so and like to think that we can also trade the short side.
Trading the short side is very risky these days of "bad news , even if economic news and bad numbers don't matter"
If inflation is high (all prices went up lots) they call it deflation (prices going down, did not happen).
If unemployment is high, they press with QE.
If unemployment is low, like now (at least official lying numbers) , they press with QE WHILE SAYING (LYING) tapering.
You can't win unless you ignore any and all bad news, and have your eyes squarely and exclusively on the long side.
there is a -2% -3% technical dip "need"
as I write this the spy weakened along the sisters and might not break that resistance it almost did with impunity
there could be a follow through with this weakness, and we could get that -2 -3% dip
Then we should get a decent bounce from that dip, UNLESS they gun it down like they gunned it up.
Traders and their computers that chased it up technically, will be holding the bag for a while if the market is gunned down.
Not impossible, and that's what is scary and what scares me - as after a go-go gunned up irrational market , a mere -2% -3% is not enough in my old dog book.
That was indeed very funny
but yeah
A correct analysis will show lots of resistance points.
Since the markets are biased upward due to up-trending, typically those resistance points are short lived and under constant breaking.
Some times, due to whatever reasons, they are not broken, then they accumulate, gather some strength as a group, and take the prices down, just as we saw in the recent 10% correction down to 200 day.
No one can foresee where a correction ends, but we can watch for pockets of strength. I tried my best and got in pretty near the bottom. My problem is I got out a bit early thinking the market will linger a bit, but I was left behind. I'm not sorry, just a bit disappointed. If I got such trades more often I'll be totally satisfied.
Now I can't buy as there are resistances all over the place, nor can I short given the strength in face of those resistances.
I need to be patient to see how it all solves. Just like I didn't get exactly on the bottom, I don't expect to get a short exactly on the top. But I'd prefer to be in bed with the crooks from the fed and go long, it feels more safe to have those goons behind you.
some key symbols are right at some resistance
so decent shorting opportunity here risk-wise
that's the good news
the bad news is, the spy is not part of that group, and in fact has destroyed a key ST resistance showing more strength than others
I figured that's probably has to be because some here bought puts I guess
hot money dictates where the market go ST
that was not yet clarified to be to the upside, but watching them they are working on it to be so - 2 more hours to go
but it can be prolonged with an excruciating options eroding grinding for another day or even few days
They want to make the month tomorrow (for the chartists)
nah, markets have always been manipulated, always
BOTH ways!
Most of the times it works for the manipulators
especially when the big bro is being the crook
----
Look last time what happened (that was recently even) as an eye opening:
The Fed announced (lied) that QE infinity is being tapered.
Then they took the market slightly so down to reel in the traders.
Then BAAAAAAMMMM, they slammed the market on the traders to new highs with a vengeance!
Market action shows the real truth, that not only it was not ANY tapering happening, but was tampering, as they lied with a bold face, and in fact they actually increased the QE and the printing money scam.
DON'T EVER BELIEVE so called PRs, they don't matter, better watch a comedy!
THAT WAS A LESSON TO BE LEARNED !
Where was I
2 weeks ago
let me see
BUYING
in the post you were questioning I was referring to my next trade opportunity, my expectations, wishes, stuff like that
November comes, BULLish
..So, naturally, I am expecting a 1000 points drop in DOW..
I need to buy on sale, I like sales
the question is who is "them"
are the shortees traders like us, small fish
or are they same big whales
in other words who is fighting who
optionslearner, one of the greeks (of options) will answer this question of yours extremely well.
That's why Jeff and I advised you to reed the books. You will have the answer you want right there in front of you.
You basically asked jeff to look it up and interpret it for you. Believe me, you want to be above that.
And besides, I already answered your question with my statement of "70% at best". So it can never be a move point for point, or I'd be a liar (I wish I was).
(and anyway I believe those options you asked about were far bellow the max 70%, but Like I said to jeff, I don't look at the greeks 99% of the time anymore, so I don't know those numbers)
jeff, I stopped looking at those thing for a long time now.
Now and then still do, but really like a flash only.
Reasons: 1. I get "it" instinctively now, so no need for reading it (greeks). 2. I only use one or two of them, so, thanks to my point 1., I don't need them. , and 3. I found a lot of BS and cheating on those advertised numbers, not respected metrics, basically another level of manipulation. Looking at them makes me angry and I don't need that. So I trade it as I see it with whatever greek they want to give me (usually very near to expectations). I'm like a musician singing without looking at the script, just the ear.
But this is my style. I am sure lots of people use them or majority of them.
However, your advise to optionlearner is correct, and i gave him same. Anyone that wants to trade options must first read all there is like the greeks and traditional schemes.
I found that trading double beta ETF is quite good. Not as leveraged as options, you still get hit with erosion, but not as much, and you do not have expiration. So you gain having no expiration, but you give away leverage power. I like to ride options and play daytrading with the double beta. I don't know, it's a feeling I like about this thing, doing it this way.
(i.e. SSO and SDS)
optionslearner, for a guy that 1. stay away from options, and 2. red a fair bit about options - you have a peculiar name - "optionslearner".
I red A LOT I tell ya. And I still feel I know the bare minimum.
It is only when reading about others' trading that makes me feel I know a bit more than I give myself credit for.
But know this (and I mean to be polite) - if you asked how options were valued at a given time in the past, and how in the money options is affected, you my friend did not read nearly sufficient to begin with.
In essence, in the money has value+speculation (the speculators call it fancy 'premium'), while out of the money has just the speculation, a promise of a pie in the sky (good luck with that...)
I rode this last rise from bottom about 60% (darn)
I did it with options and my buying power was 2.5 times my own MARGIN power, while yet I only used about 10% of real buying power dollars. So I went nimble, yet I went in big. Funny thing.
Hence my posts regarding "let's wait for a dip" are in fact after I got some profits. Of course I can wait (for a dip).
Listen to me. Go at the library and look at some of the books. Choose a couple you find to your liking after a bit of leafing, and go home or any place you enjoy and read THE ENTIRE BOOKs, even passages you go nuts looking at them.
Then, and only then you are done with that phase.
I guarantee you that you will have no doubts of what happens with an option at any given phase of its life (like you have now).
You will have gained confidence to go in and will be able to choose the game you like (ITM OTM, whatever).
As you can see from my last trade, this has tremendous potential, and is absolutely worth your time and effort. But no one can do it for you. Cutting corners in knowledge and understanding is a recipe for financial disaster and ruin.
Want an eye opening example? Me, that I know what I am doing, I also lost numerous trades in options.
It is not a walk in the park. It needs to be approached seriously and diligently. Entering a trade you must be willing to accept you will be losing a lot or all your money in it. And with a cold feeling.
Remember, for trading options, the most crucial element is to be a good stock timer, that's the backbone of success with them.
(or find someone with good timing and hit the market with options)
I only wish you well, so I tell you how I see it.
(there is one other scheme where price almost don't even matter, a scheme bordering insanity. It looked out of twilight zone from Bermuda triangle, eerily and fascinating, and was tempting like hell. No, of course it was not in any of those option books or internet pages. This was borderline insane, so the only place I saw it was where it could be - online , being someone personal trading. Unfortunately I could never even attempt to do it, given my trading costs. The point is that there are exotic trading schemes out there, and lots to be learned constantly. This was the only scheme that impressed me, not the one from books which I found stupid for my own use, JMO.
BTW, just as another warning, the guy that traded this, made few fortunes, no kidding, then took some nasty loses and went out! I felt bad for him, a very nice person - his error was that he was not too good of a stock timer/trader and relied entirely on his cutthroat trading system, and when the market turned against him he was done like a deer in highlights)
Read the books - you will be done in about 2-3 weeks. Not a big deal, and lots of benefit.
Then you will be at a good level.
re options: Do things the right way.
1. Take few books on options and read to familiarize yourself with terms and lingoes and mechanics. Not only you will be knowledgeable on your own standing, but it is actually interesting and fun (at least it was for me).
2. get options access on your platform to be able to watch for a while how it plays out. You will assess that against your (already) acquired knowledge.
3. AT this point, after point 1 and 2, you will feel "home".
Start with a small position. See and most importantly, feel, how it all works out.
4. Ask questions if any on the board/s (above what you've been asking) - but I am sure at this point your questions will be just few and quite relevant.
5. You have gained experience and knowledge and you would be trade options like a pro or at least as an advanced amateur (my own level)
I get bored and especially unnerved by the so called 'schemes'. The books will teach you all of them (i.e. "butterfly"). So I don't care for any of them. But I did bite the bull and read of them, no matter how excruciating boring and unnerving it was for me - this is because they and their philosophy go against my nature and my stile. For you or others could however be perfect, who knows. You gotta give it a try and see for yourself.
In short, (but I advise you to do as advised above, and read in books) options erode (lose premium/dollar value) each single freaking day, and near OEX lose even each freaking passing hour.
They do however rise with the stock. Due to erosion and some other mambo-jumbo they tend to rise (move) at best (remember, AT BEST!) just about 70% of what the stock does (this does not say in books, I know it).
So if the spy rises 1$ the option should rise AT BEST 0.7
There are other factors that come in play, and they will affect your profit constantly - only against you that is. The erosion alone can eat you alive, and if the price moves sideways, the erosion will NOT stop and will eat your gains away each day into nothingness.
If you are nimble and play it right, then you can play options fantastic and rip great returns. So essentially, to be a good options player one has to be a good stock player, a good timer, as the time/timing is the Achilles heel of options, as the options are merciless.
While I wrote here quite a bit, and getting fingers pain, I merely touched (not even scratched) the surface of this subject.
Myself I am like I said past point 5, and I can do ok, but by no means I consider myself knowledgeable or a pro on the subject, and I say this in spite of reading many books on the subject and lots of internet material. Right now I rarely read on this anymore as I red quite enough already, and as I have my hands full with other things. This trading if done regularly is more than one alone can handle.
My future project, that gets pushed again and again forever now, is the Futures. The plan for that should entail more or less the same path I advised you to follow. As opposed to options, the futures you can trade in middle of the night as well. One should consider sleep deprivation and elevated stress.
Just remember few days ago when futures were red big, then turn around in middle of the night and went up big. That's a new playground.
For now I'm ok where I am. Slowly slowly maybe one day I'll make it there.
I do trade also currencies which is also a 24 hours market, and often follow the futures (and you can be 60x 100x times leveraged unlike 3 times or so in the reg market) - that's a one stressful trading ground, probably priming me for futures one day.
I hope you have what it takes and do it diligently as I explained.
If not ..... it's your money, if you know what I mean.
I hope I helped
that vix seems even more rigged than spy
of course it will dip if you buy now
we are near resistance
buy on dip
or buy higher over resistance (gap or whatever scheme they have in mind)
197 is the public enemy now
---
in regard to shorting, is actually a better place to do now as we're near resistance (support of shorts)
if it breaks, then just cover and go long, simple
that's the plan
"just 1 case"
Really?
Is like saying just 1 nuclear catastrophe.
This is a disease spreading like wildfire.
In fact, back in Africa they say it doubles each 20 days !!!
NYC is extremely dense , so the impact can be extremely severe if the disease advance even a bit.
Treating 1 or 2 patients is one thing, facing 5,000 will collapse the system, it will get completely out of control (nightmare live) - and the economy soon to follow. The market reacts because there's a lot of money on the line, highly leveraged I might add !!!
On the plus side, the lowered economy will further depress oil demand and we could see a nice move down in oil (donno about gas at the pump though if will go lower in tandem, with those crooks controlling the prices)
On the other hand, if this threat would come from China, it will stop a lot of imports, and since it will create a vacuum of goods, it may in fact increase greatly the US manufacturing (whatever is left of it anyway).
I would like to have a hourly chart of SP500 futures
even if delayed
It can help us to map the AH games
there was no drop, all in normal market behavior parameters
HOWEVER, that ongoing ebola scare, in NYC now, can undo all the QE and make QE gains disappear. The economic losses could mount to astronomical proportions, the ramifications are enormous.
We may have a November to remember down -30% followed by a similar December to remember. Instead of Santa rally could be Santa running for the hills. And if Gd forbid the ebola escalates to African proportions, which is not big deal for this disease in a dense population like US, then we can see SP500 at 600 like normal.
We all want this market to correct, to undo the irresponsible inflation created, but ebola is not the right way, not what we wish.
No defense, nowhere to hide, it is scary
I don't see much of a treat or tricking going on if this escalates either.
Was this the last hurray for the market? THE top?
Slowly it will clear itself in the charts.
So the buying is healthy as suggested by the sharp and quick rise, even before today.
Yesterday was needed, a red day to take profit.
Today was another strong day. I love and hate it.
I hate it because I was not riding it, and I love it as it further clarify the charts.
Trade on the long side is the game
I expect tomorrow a strong down day, at least intraday, so I can make a trade and make some $$$$$.
Absolutely. But since they (offenders) were mods, they were more 'personal' about the board, hence makes a little sense to close the board for posting to target them some more (besides being suspended) as it surely rubs those offending mods the wrong way as they're a bit more attached to the board than the regular Joes.
But after a while it could be reopened if a mod/s is willing to be good mod and ensure good conduct.
Too bad if it was true that some mods themselves were bad. But just like the admin expects the mods to discipline the board, likewise the admin is expected and supposed to discipline the mods, not the board. The board is not the mods. Now if there is no mod to take care of good business, then, and only then makes sense to close the board.
Since Ken is not suspended, I assume he was a good mod that he himself did not offend, but (!) he did not moderate the offending mods (if indeed true).
In itself it makes him also a co-offender.
Now I do not know if a mod even can moderate another moderator. Is that even possible?
But even if impossible, Ken could've still contacted the admin in private for help. Apparently he did not! So hmmm.
Whatever is valid for Ken is valid for any other good mod if any.
Tainted mods , not looking good.
On the other hand, whatever happened to the job of giving few warnings?
It is common (even expected) for humans, even otherwise good folks, to get carried away and do/say foolish things (that may regret later). Someone ought to snap them out of it, wake them up to the good reality.
Even sinners deserve a chance for redemption.
Do you really expect and desire the cops to stop you and fine you and punish you for all your mistakes and transgressions, or you rather have some leniency and understanding and some attempt to forgiveness? What is the truth ?!
It seemed a good board overall.
You hate it when good things go bad foolishly.
You are right Ken, it was totally wrong to suspend a good board.
I glanced (1st time) into this board and I think it was a good board, and I think there was no reason to close it whatsoever.
I assume it was something personal !
Someone/s from admin likely got offended by someone/s posting there and took it personally (NO need, really, when you can suspend the guy/s), and proceeded like in the military or hard core jails and punished everyone across the board by closing the board.
There is no other logical explanation.
I see it as strong overreaction
Maybe they'll come to their senses and reinstate the board functionality as there are also plenty of good people that don't deserve this treatment.
Let's hope so.
Meanwhile, I see you have plenty of followers, so why don't you go and make a new board. I'm sure your (good) palls will show up and catch up. And make sure they stay away from insulting anyone, especially the admin. They deserve respect, they are our hosts.
But no need to dwell too long in a problem, prolonging, if you can carry on, life's too short.
I hope you get well and succeed.
Take care.
Going up is unhealthy for us that want to load the boat again.
It will force me to wait on the sidelines and drink buckets of coffee and go nuts from it and from waiting for a better entry higher.
On the other hand, we can short at higher ground if it gets weak and top heavy.
I am happy for today small correction
It rallied too insanely fast off the recent 10% (give or take) correction. A lot of profit taking took place and will take place once (if) goes higher.
I hope it goes down and makes a better bottom (and I can buy more relaxed)
I suspect visiting the highs will happen if not soon , then in january 2015
We need to see how the year ends, how they resolve this correction
you were asked a simple question -
what data (of course is past data, no other data is available) you used.
I believe the guy asked what data in particular you may have considered (if any), and that data need to point to 205 , other way is nothing of it.
You did not answer that.
then you said 'guesstimate'
yeah, I believe that's what has been, just a guesstimate.
nothing wrong with guesstimate, just why beating around the bush saying 'I used data' when you can't provide a iota.
I mean, why
---------------
as for TA combined (you said 'and') with fundamentals are indicators at best, and comes down to guesstimates, it's not true at all. The reverse is true - they form a powerful chart-map with clear expectations (even in QE 'kill all TA players' environment we have been)
Give you 4 factors to get you started (to think of it)
Sure FACTS
1. price of the index can NOT go to zero. (but CAN be discontinued or altered to cheat the participants if the politicians or the big gorillas choose so!)
2. There is a finite quantity of money per day (or a time unit of your choice).
3. From past movements we can easily calculate the appreciation curve or speed as some call it.
4. There is a High and a Low in price for any given time period.
There are more trustworthy factors in both chart and in fundamentals, but these suffice to make the point.
Using these factors you can form a good outlook and a good plan for trading. Guesstimate will be at a bare minimum used, primarily for ST.
And BTW, saying 'guesstimate' alone is not telling much either, as we have all kinds of them, and it depends on the experience of the guesser. Is like saying 'I bought a CAR'. But it can be a brand new Porsche, or a 2nd hand junk. It comes down to the ability of the person, what he can get. Look in Business channels, all kind of guys make all kind of forecasts, so is nothing in the end. But the TA and the fundamentals are rocks we can depend on, especially when combined.
Printing money by the crazy fed IS fundamentals, and was needed to be added to our analysis, and those that ignored it got punished by the market.
205 and even 305 as well as 90 are all absolutely possible, but the part of the equation hard to figure out is timing.
So saying will go to 205 is meaningless if you can't have something to time it with.
It's lots to learn, tones. I'd say endless given that it all moves and evolves.
Sometimes time can be cut out entirely and transformed in quantity (volume) or price (move). Point and figure charts don't have time.
------------------
It was important for the markets to have a red day after the run.
It's just a correction day, nothing serious for the (new) bulls.
The move up form the 200 day bottom was sharper than the drop, showing that the buying is just fine.
If we take that bottom down, then will be a stampede to the abattoir. (this is an example of guesstimate and conditional factor together)
------------------
Timing is absolutely essential for options. Options offers you a tremendous advantage - low risk and huge potential pay. The catch is timing. Do it wrong and you lost your money, do it right and you can make 25% with ease in short time (even doubling it).
I am NOT an expert in options and know close to nothing in ("their") options-strategies.
But I do trade options as well. The thought of "I can only lose this much" is the carrot they dangle in front of a trader, and is quite appealing. Especially for a guy with limited funds (guilty).
See you around
rolling over?
definitely we're ahead of some nasty selloff
the last dip buyers will be a bit disappointed
red-X no-chart during market hours look the same with their new bandwidth and "downloded" pretty slow on top of it
pathetic
be insistent with these characters
"My Intraday charts are skewed by Stockcharts showing January 1 as a trading day. I've sent problem report to them.
problems happen
that's not the issue
I have problems at work place from time to time
it's life
THE THING IS
I MUST HAVE A SOLUTION HANDY ALL THE TIME
my customers DO NOT WAIT
and I know it's not easy whatsoever
it's called being BUSINESS ORIENTED and CAPABLE and PRO
I don't like exusitis disease
overall they are good
but when things go down they suck
and I know they don't have to
at least I sense they improve
very slow but they improve
and I like that - it means it's hope
site seems back up now (market still down)
fingers crossed for all
"We are experiencing network problems...
We are sincerely sorry for the inconvenience but our site is off-line right now. Rest assured that we will have it back on-line as soon as possible.
- The StockCharts Team
October 15, 1:00PM EST UPDATE:
A problem with one of our vital networking components has caused us to take the site off-line for a while. We hope to be back online within an hour at the most.
We will update this page if that estimate changes.
"
well, fingers crossed
and like I said - WHERE are those BACKUP ??
huh ?
"We are experiencing network problems...
We are sincerely sorry for the inconvenience but our site is off-line right now. Rest assured that we will have it back on-line as soon as possible.
- The StockCharts Team
October 15, 1:00PM EST UPDATE:
A problem with one of our vital networking components has caused us to take the site off-line for a while. We hope to be back online within an hour at the most.
We will update this page if that estimate changes.
"
well, fingers crossed
and like I said - WHERE are those BACKUP ??
huh ?
"12:35pm - We are currently experiencing networking problems in our datacenter. We are working on fixing the problem ASAP. We apologize for the problems this is causing."
THEN AGAIN
WHERE IS THAT BACKUP ?
WAS THAT JUST A DOUBLE TALK ?
whatever happened to
"we have cool hardware"
"2nd data feed"
"backup this and backup that"
uh ???
site is down
let's hope they restart the servers and all is back
Happy holidays :0)
well well
"...It just started working.
Or maybe it was coincidental and in fact they stockcharts just finished their installations while I was "troubleshooting" my PC?
I am happy for stockcharts nightmare to be finished.
I have lost quite a bunch of trades because of this/them.
"
SITE NEWS
COMSTOCK DATA FEED EQUIPMENT BEING INSTALLED THIS WEEK - Remember when we told everyone that it takes a l-o-n-g time to get a second datafeed installed? Well, it takes about "this" long.