Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Interesting that you bring up DNDN at this time. Why not ACAD, VRTX or another biotech that had a great move up in the past 12 months. The DNDN story will forever be used to scare retail investors. Being cautious is one thing, but creating FUD is another.
A mirror image of yesterday's chart would be acceptable. With the same amount of volume of course! But I bet you were thinking today would be more in the shape of the letter "J". That'd be alright too.
It may be a relatively long-term hold for you guys but the next month should be exciting for Peregrine. Despite the flared up rumors of an acquisition, it's been discussed lengthly that Peregrine would do best to partner and bring sustainable value to it's shareholders. The potential is not hundreds of percent but thousands. You won't get that in days though.
Bring on the hit pieces, right? PPHM is going to make someone's radar again and the company will get bashed. Maybe AF can dust off some of his pre-writes and insert Peregrine. Time is running out for them to knock Bavi down.
CP, I'm really starting to like Day 1 of Week 0! Tell me the rest of the calendar is going to be this good!
Over 3 million in volume before lunch. 10% up currently. I'll take 10% a day for the next few weeks. Thanks.
There must be some leaks of good news going on. Went from next to nothing in volume to now 1/2 million in less than 5 minutes.
It's good reasoning except if there are multiple BPs interested.
OE = Options Expiration
Investopedia is a good resource to learn more about options/investing.
It's a good thought, but at this slow of a rate it will take months to get up to 75M.
It's as if today were OE and $1.40 was Max Pain.
Biopharm,
Does the increase in job postings indicate an acquisition to take place? I can think of only two reasons why there would be a need to post those openings if an acquisition was in the works:
1. Plan B in case the acquisition falls through.
2. Negotiating leverage. They can post the jobs to give appearance of "moving forward" but never follow through with actually hiring if a deal is inked.
(recalling that Sierra is dead-set on a Pfizer buyout I have to chuckle a bit)
Actually, if you read into them closely, you understand the motives a bit more. Always good and fun to read what the firm wants you to believe.
Thanks DrRocker! Fantastic questions.
I find it interesting that not many of those questions would be covered by:
- The topic has been covered in previous conference calls/ is reflected in our current guidance (pipeline, clinical events)
That last one is telling:
-- a clinical management team with enough depth to perform some fair share of the clinical work.
Hence, Thorpe's death itself may have delayed the partnership signing.
It's a good thing PPHM's stock price hasn't gone up then based on your theory!
I love the Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt that is being cast by some on the board. It's good remedy to the Hope, Dreams and Desires by others - namely the little guys. Makes for good reading in these slow times.
One other consideration is that Peregrine has a high degree of confidence going into the EOPII meeting and they know the "value" would be significantly greater once confirmed. Or, there are multiple BPs interested and having PIII confirmed would cause a bidding war. In my opinion, Peregrine is confidently in control despite all the communication they are sending out (tic).
A question that comes to mind for me, why would IR respond to Threes but not md1225 yet?
I note that completion of enrollment in the pancreatic trial was announced June 25, 2012. 5.6 month MOS results were announced February 13, 2013, 7 1/2 months later.
Completion of enrollment in the first line NSCLC trial was announced September 8, 2011, 20 months ago. 7.5 - 5.6 = ~ 2 months.
20 - 2 = 18.
Intuitively it makes sense. But how many were disappointed (not saying it failed ) in the Pancreatic trial results even though day after day went by unchecked?
This may be another factor why buying pressure is not yet where some of us longs want it. There is that shadow of uncertainty right now. But good results will trump that uncertainty.
Please feel free to share with the board any "activity" in the parking lot. You may want to be there early the next few days. Something is brewing.
If they do extend results into the second half of 2013 it had better be because MOS is causing the extension.
Peregrine should update their Corporate Fact Sheet. Information is still as of March.
Well that could make for another busy weekend for autoshipper since 5/8 is next Wednesday. Coincidently, ASCO abstracts are 5/15 (a week later). Good timing on management's part. Let's just get FDA approvals and get Bavi out to market and start giving those in the fight of their lives a chance. It's time!
Yes, it works especially well if you are off-shore. Somehow, the seawater transforms the signal quicker!!!
Are you kidding?
They use text these days... lol
Prepare for battle at $1.40
(edit) Well, that was quick! wooses
Excellent find Biopharm. So, at the current market cap of ~$190M the PPS is equivilant to having about 2000 patients treated with Bavi for a year without acknowledging the value of Avid, Cotara and imaging or prolonged use of Bavi. And, I like the safety factor vs. what we are seeing with Avastin.
Another way to look at it:
if Bavi were to replace Avastin as SOC, just in the US alone it could do roughly $2.3B in revenue. At just a factor of 1x sales PPHM would be worth around $15. No wonder there is such a desire to extinguish PPHM and in turn Bavi.
I wonder if the FDA is aware of this? There must be a safer alternative!
Oh, that would be Bavi...
Time to open up another slot for BTD Ms. Hamburg!
Good reading!
Best humorous post: mrpatinmn 121041
Those dating sites are targeting the PPHM site as the holders are rumored to become extremely wealthy in the near term
...you do not present failures at ASCO.
This position could be for Cotara specifically. Many have surmised Peregrine would go it alone with Cotara into Phase III.
It's not unprecedented to have a big hiring just before an acquisition is finalized. Not sure if it is the same with a partnership.
How is the stock downtrending? Where do you see any trend at all? Quit making up erroneous statements with an ulterior motive.
And for your information, Garnick said, "This is it!"
Corporate fact sheet accessible? I cannot get into it. Is the company updating it with the new Breast Cancer dates? Look for new information when it comes back up.
Excellent question horselover!
Much better than "Why then is the stock price $1.39?" I believe that was a rhetorical one anyway. All of us know it is doubt that causes the stock price to be so low. Doubt because of illegal and immoral activities.
I figured you knew what you were doing. I have a bottle of Johnny Blue stored away for that same special occasion (sorry Loof, Kornlicker cost too much!)
Been thinking about getting the bike ready and buying a pitchfork to join the Wook brigade. A little cavalry work....
yeah, I agree. Price is acting as though it is OE today. I know some will harp that it is the ATM. Throw the dogs off the scent. Volume is low, but steady.
wwtmm: tip the bottles so the corks don't dry out. The wine will last longer.
Talkin' valuation:
Biopharm (or anyone who may know), what would be a good estimate of the revenue Peregrine would receive per average treatment of Bavi? And what would be the cost for Peregrine per average treatment?
In the past, when trying to evaluate the valuation of Peregrine all we've had were industry estimates of market size. Just looking for something with a little more specification to Peregrine. Thanks in advance!
The market priced PPHM at 70c without Cotara. With Cotara PhIII the PPS was $1.20. A failure in Bavi could cause a selloff down to $1 in my opinion, or yes, even 50% loss from here might be possible - at worst.
Upside on the otherhand: One could argue you are looking too close in the rearview. A three-bagger only gets us in the range of where the price was prior to the outside source of data descrepancy. A three-bagger from here would be nice. It might be where the next base is established.
PS: going to save my last bullet for later. Looks like another stock of mine has something brewing.
Carboat, Do I think Avid is worth $185M? Realistically no. But one trite response soliciting a flurry of activity deserves another. And since it was my last bullet in the chamber yesterday (I do not get paid by a hedge fund to post on this board) I now have to give my real answer today. Based on past earnings trend, balance sheet and guaranteed contract I would argue Avid has a value of between $80-100M. When PPHM was at roughly 70c the stock was being valued by the market based on what Avid brings to the table alone. Bavi, cotara and imaging were deemed to have little, if any value. When Cotara was given PhIII approval by the FDA the stock rose to about $1.20. I think it's fair to say Cotara brings current value of about $50-60M based on increased market cap. Remember, Bavi was still being judged a "placebo" at the time and imaging was just gaining its roots so the only factor that could have caused the market cap increase was Cotara. From there, we are all aware of the bump PPHM had when news was released of a potential recovery of the NSCLC data. Now we sit at $1.40ish.
So, that harkens back to my original post of low risk, high reward. I explained the low risk above, because even if Bavi proves to be a "placebo" as some pledge, PPHM could fall back to it's base of $1.20ish as it was before. The high reward part of the equation has been reitirated multiple times on this board by many posters such as CP, EYEBUYSTOX, Biopharm, etc. If Bavi works on just one type of cancer, be it lung, pancreatic or breast the valuation of Bavi - and therefore Peregrin - would be in the BILLION$! If Bavi is effective in multiple cancers or is broadcast to other illnesses, then the sky is the limit.
cc to AtonewithPPHM: You need a garage for that Challenger. Don't leave it out overnight in the driveway!
Sure it is.
Maybe bavi will cure the cooties at ASCO.
It's been roughly three months since someone posted a remark by our elusive IR department that PPHM will represent it's true value in 6 months. In my opinion, IR was giving themselves some cushion. I am anxious to see what the "true value" is.
And therein lies the value (or what most on this board consider value) of Peregrine!
...in addition to the value Avid brings to the picture.
Or shall we say, PPHM is currently valued at Avid's worth. Bavi, Cotara and Imaging add no value according to the current stock price. Once one of those three are recognized as having value, PPS will reflect the true value of PPHM as a whole. Thus, in my opinion, little downside risk with exponential upside reward potential.
EYEBUYSTOX
I agree with your views and assessment of BTD for bavi. If the company applied for BTD, why would they not PR it? If the company did not apply for BTD, why? Etc.
Is it possible the whole platform idea is also at play here? Does Peregrine not want to push one branch of the platform (cotara or bavi) while imaging is still being proven?
Otherwise, i cannot imagine why they would not apply for BTD. There may be reasons for not PR'ing it. But not applying for it???
PGG
The simple answer to that question is they are here to antagonize not add value. Why would they pursue an answer to a question they rhetorically ask? Creation of doubt and fear after OE has passed. Drive down the stock price. Buy low. Sell high. Or, in this case, sell short high and cover low. Until news, the stock is controlled this way.