Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Mortgage foreclosures highest in 30 years. Just like everything is bullish right now, somehow I'm sure consumers hopelessly in debt is bullish too although I haven't figured out why yet.
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/24/national/24FORE.html?todaysheadlines
>>>I think it's pretty much a given that by the time we have quarter when business spending, cap ex's, etc are rising, the market will already have had this priced in long before the actual "evidence" shows up on the street.<<<
Of course the market will get it right sooner or later as long as it keeps starting a new bull every 4 months. And when they finally luck out and one of those rallies coincides with an increase in IT spending a few months later, Wall Street's brilliance in forecasting the turn will make headlines around the globe. Never mind that the first four, five or six rallies or whatever the number turn out to be were flops that crashed and burned to new lows without fail.
>>The stock market always turns up before the economy, so it would make sense that at some point, possibly now, the market will go up and continue up, and the economy will turn up not too long after.<<
This is the fourth recovery celebration Wall Street's best have put together during this bear with the first three proving to be miserable failures. Hard to see why this one should be any different with FY03 EPS numbers eroding steadily with each weekly update. Look at AMAT for instance. FY03 EPS cut in half (from 0.39 to 0.20) 7 days ago and FY04 reduced by 30%. Bullish? I guess so since the stock has since rallied 20% which yields a P/E of 85 and a P/S of 6.
>>>Looks like distribution, and it is occurring in most of the equipments at the moment.<<<
I hope so. It would strenghten my spirits to see something rational taking place for a change. After the guidance from INTC, KLAC, AMAT and all the other semis for that matter, I'm completely baffled that the SOX is at 360 rather than 260.
>>>NVLS is absolutely stopped in time.Hugging 36 for some reason.<<<<
36.32 = 200MA
>>>Absolutely nothing but utter, unadulterated, BS out of soundview, yet the stocks went straight up.<<<
If at the very least Soundview would have upped some EPS numbers to back up their grandstanding. Instead, all they did was increase price targets based on what "could" happen. And on that we rally straight up for 6 hours?
>>>Um, are we talking about the same thing, the SPX? August looks like 960ish. Sept. and Nov. 925ish and Oct. only looks like 908ish.<<<<<
Sorry, should have been July. The July bounce topped at 911.6.
>>>And did you see where they ran the futures up and just touched 911.00.<<<
911.6 was the August high.
Bearish wedge/flag on NDX 5/15 min just broke UP. If AMAT's cc that centered on hopelessness produces this kind of euphoria, try to imagine what an upbeat Michael Dell might do tonight.
>>>Wonder if it's really anticapating a decent AMAT report<<<
If it's not decent, they'll just pretend it is just like they did with KLAC. They missed, guided lower by a wide margin and roared higher after a brief dump. I get the sense we're in the "is's so bad it can't get any worse" mode here.
>>>I agree, the rally appears to have run out of steam, technically - poor AD figures, declining volume, a large bearish wedge formed, low equity p/c ratio, BKX and BTK rolling over, and everything over-valued, over-extended, and overbought. I see little upside from here and think Monday morning could be the end of it<<<<
No argument with any of that. However, CSCO & AMAT earnings (Nov 6 & 13) often put a floor under the market until reported.
>>>Is there a place where I can look up earnings dates by company?<<<<
Sure is. Type ticker in window in upper left corner: http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html
mlsoft,
I hope you are right, but the temptation has got to be there. They have most of the country rallying behind them on the war effort and the overall effort for that matter - EXCEPT - the market and the economy. I'm searching for clues just like you and this one may be reaching a bit. I'm also wondering if there are other means of supporting the markets other than the "official" PPT which as you point out seems too politically mixed for election related intervention.
>>>If I could figure out why they were so set on running the markets when they are so much above the lows, I would feel a lot better - I think, anyway - maybe not. It goes against what I see as their mission in life.<<<
The most important mid-term election in recent memory is weeks away. Media focus has slooowly started to shift from war to the economy and rotten 401k's. A blistering rally in the markets right into election day can only bolster the GOP's chances of taking control of the entire government (White House, both houses and the Supreme Court). They want it badly enough where I won't rule out their tinkering with the markets in order to get it.
3 weeks worth of selling recovered in 2 days, with a 20-point GAP in the middle. Great base to build on.
>>>We are going to try for the 50 day (1260)obviously. It could fail anywhere between here and there,<<<<<<<<<
NDX 50 day is only 15 points away at 912. Pretty euphoric though and maybe it'll plow right through that just like everything else is ignored. INTC -03 EPS was cut by both UBS and SSB and is UP 8%. LSI was cut similarily last week and lost 30% in two days....
Link in previous post doesn't work when copied and pasted. Here's the entire story instead:
Religious Right Finds Its Center in Oval Office
Bush Emerges as Movement's Leader After Robertson Leaves Christian Coalition advertisement
By Dana Milbank
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, December 24, 2001; Page A02
Pat Robertson's resignation this month as president of the Christian Coalition confirmed the ascendance of a new leader of the religious right in America: George W. Bush.
For the first time since religious conservatives became a modern political movement, the president of the United States has become the movement's de facto leader -- a status even Ronald Reagan, though admired by religious conservatives, never earned. Christian publications, radio and television shower Bush with praise, while preachers from the pulpit treat his leadership as an act of providence. A procession of religious leaders who have met with him testify to his faith, while Web sites encourage people to fast and pray for the president.
There are several reasons for the adulation. Religious conservatives have regarded Bush as one of their own since the presidential campaign, when he spoke during a debate of the guidance of Jesus. At the same time, key figures in the religious right -- Robertson, Jerry Falwell, James Dobson, Billy Graham and Franklin Graham -- have receded in political prominence or influence, in part because they are no longer mobilized by their opposition to a president. Bush's handling of the anti-terrorism campaign since Sept. 11 has solidified his standing by painting him in stark terms as the leader in a fight of good against evil.
"I think Robertson stepped down because the position has already been filled," said Gary Bauer, a religious conservative who challenged Bush in the Republican primary. Bush "is that leader right now. There was already a great deal of identification with the president before 9-11 in the world of the Christian right, and the nature of this war is such that it's heightened the sense that a man of God is in the White House."
Ralph Reed, who once led the Christian Coalition and now is chairman of the Georgia GOP, notes that the religious conservative movement "no longer plays the institutional role it once did," in part because it succeeded in electing Bush and other friendly leaders. "You're no longer throwing rocks at the building; you're in the building."
Conservative Christians tend to view Bush's recent success as part of a divine plan. "I've heard a lot of 'God knew something we didn't,' " Reed said. "In the evangelical mind, the notion of an omniscient God is central to their theology. He had a knowledge nobody else had: He knew George Bush had the ability to lead in this compelling way."
Bush himself dismisses the notion that he is part of some divine plan. "He does not believe he was chosen for this moment," a senior aide said. "He just views himself as governing on his beliefs and his promises. He doesn't look at himself as a leader of any particular movement."
Still, some of those around Bush say they have a sense that a higher purpose is involved. "I think President Bush is God's man at this hour, and I say this with a great sense of humility," Bush aide Tim Goeglein, described as a "strong evangelical," told World magazine, a Christian publication.
Partially a victim of their own success, groups such as the Christian Coalition are finding fundraising difficult. Some leaders, such as Focus on the Family's Dobson, have retreated from political involvement.
Some religious conservative leaders have inflicted wounds on themselves. Falwell was roundly criticized, even by supporters, for saying on television, with Robertson's agreement, that "abortionists and the feminists, and the gays and lesbians" and civil libertarians were to blame in part for the Sept. 11 attacks. Franklin Graham produced a furor by declaring Islam a "very evil and wicked religion."
Voting patterns also show a declining religious right. Karl Rove, Bush's top political strategist, said that only 15 million of the 19 million religious conservatives who should have voted went to the polls in 2000. "We may be seeing to some degree some return to the sidelines of previously involved religious conservatives," he said.
And Bush, his advisers acknowledge, deliberately circumvented the power of the leaders of the religious right, appealing to conservatives himself rather than paying homage to the Christian Coalition during the campaign. "In the old days, Republican presidential candidates went to religious conservative leaders to seek their imprimatur," said a Bush adviser. "George W. Bush was able to go directly to those who sat in the pews."
Bush's effort succeeded. "He is the leader of the Christian right," said Marshall Wittmann, a former Christian Coalition figure now with the Hudson Institute, a think tank. "As their institutions peel away, he can go over the heads" of religious conservative leaders.
Bush, aided by speechwriter Michael Gerson, himself a religious conservative, speaks the language of religion better than any president since Jimmy Carter, religious leaders say, and Bush's policies appeal more to conservatives. To many outside the religious conservative movement, Bush's faith-infused words may sound sanctimonious; to those within it, the words sound familiar and comforting. Across the country, churchgoers share Bush's "testimony," his discovery of God 15 years ago with the help of Billy Graham. "Reverend Graham planted a mustard seed in my soul, a seed that grew over the next year," Bush's memoir recounts. "He led me to the path, and I began walking. It was the beginning of a change in my life."
As Bush had embraced religious conservatism, religious conservatives have openly embraced him. The Internet has several sites offering prayers for the president's success. One example: "Call on the name of the Lord to hedge him in from terrorists and violent people. Psalm 91:11-12; 1 Corinthians 1:10-11."
World magazine, which is edited by one-time Bush adviser Marvin Olasky, named Bush's attorney general, John D. Ashcroft, its "Daniel of the Year." Ashcroft himself considered running for president in 2000 as the candidate of the religious right. "Just as the biblical Daniel faced an established idol-worshiping religion in Babylon, so our Dans must not back down in the face of deadly persecution abroad or the scorn and harassment that comes domestically from the academic and media high priests of our established religion, secular liberalism," Olasky wrote.
The top Daniel, of course, is Bush himself, a view liberally offered by the many religious figures who pass through the White House. In an account of one such meeting, Jean Bethke Elshtain, a professor at the University of Chicago Divinity School, wrote of a "powerful and moving moment" with Bush and an ecumenical group of religious leaders. "One of our group asked, 'Mr. President, what can we do for you?' He indicated that we could 'pray for me, for our country, for my family.' He believes in the efficacy of prayer and needs wisdom and guidance and grace, he said. A Greek Orthodox archbishop was invited to lead us in prayer. We all joined hands in a prayer circle, including the president."
© 2001 The Washington Post Company
>>>Seabass, it's our ability to survive despite morons like you that shows what a great country this really is.<<<< (augieboo)
Being concerned about Bush allowing the Christian Coalition to set up shop in the White House makes me a moron? In your opinion, this has no potential of breaching the constitutional requirement of separation between church and state?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A19253-2001Dec23...
>>>"Separation of Church and State" works beautifully in America.<<<
Work-e-d beautifully in america. For the first time in US history, a religious organization (The Christian Coalition) has its own office in the White House with none other than President Bush is their official leader. Add Father Ashcroft to that can of worms and the church/state separation doesn't look so separate any longer.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A19253-2001Dec23...
Semis defying grafity. Taiwan Semi lowers capex, UMC lowers capex, Varian lowers guidance and annonces layoffs and ASML lowers shipment estimates for first half of -03. This is good?
SOX magic today.
>>>It's comical to watch CNBC, which is pimping housing today.<<<
CNBC is doing the same thing with real estate today as they did to stocks 3 years ago, basically telling viewers they're idiots if they don't join the party. I have dealt with investment property since the early 90's and it is NOT always free and easy money as Tom Costello would have us believe. I hope CNBC gets sued off the air one of these days.
>>>INTC @ $13......why ??<<<<
Maybe $13 as a pit stop, or $14, or $12, who knows? Pull up a monthly chart.....nothing but thin air between $16 and $9.75.
Sorry, I misread your post.
4 X P/S is trough valuation for semi equip. stocks? Seems like it's been half of that in previous cycles. I suppose post-bubble troughs command higher valuations with the "new metrics standards" the big houses implemented 2 years ago.
>>>Who keeps covering the semis,or should I say who in their right mind keeps covering the semis.Jeez.<<<
Let's see here.....NVLS warns for 3rd quarter, cuts both rev. and EPS, warns of order pushouts and lousy business in general ("The outlook is very, very murky," said Chief Executive Richard Hill. "The general feeling tends to be negative.") and the stock its UP a quarter...??
>>>What is the problem with the Dow, today?<<<<
Looks like a wedge breakdown yesterday that measures to 7500. Other than that, no problem.
>>>>>Bush pressing this is sending a message that they FEAR Iraq. That if this is not done it will bode a disaster is the implication.<<<<<<
A disaster for the oil and the defense industry is the implication perhaps? All roads this administration travel seem to lead back to those two sponsors somehow.
>>>Do shorts insist that they don't help stocks and markets go down? They are not helping them go up or stopping them from going down.<<<<<<
I insist that you reconsider the effect of shortcovering. If you don't think shorts covering their positions have anything to do with short and long-term market bottoms, then I hope you get to sit through a panic selloff after shortselling has been banned and only the eternal bulls are there to "stop the market from going down".
>>>>QLGC is puzzling<<<<
Not really. There's a gap left behind since October last year that's sucking on it (27.98-29.45). Gaps have been like black holes in this bear with most being filled in short order. This one has lasted longer than most.