Fully invested in secondary oils (100% long)
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cash - the ratio on the SPX is now 5.90
linzy - Its good afternoon here in Fortaleza, although expecting rain over the weekend. Yes, I agree that the bottom is in, although I dont expect a very powerful advance until next week (due to to short term pressures from Bradley, crude oil, etc.) Boa tarde
DALLAS (CBS.MW) -- Oil stocks rallied in Friday morning trading as crude rose after OPEC said it expects greater demand in 2005 than previously expected.
Then again, maybe not!
Ha! Ha! It must be RALLY TIME! (Maybe we will get our Thursday reversal after all)
linzy - Gooten Morgen! If the market closes lower today, I will reassess this indicator. (The more things change, the more they remain the same)
Bom Dia
Oops, sorry, must have been a delayed quote.
I show EBAY up a quarter after hours!
Relax guys - we have had 2 up days followed by a down day (2 steps forward and one step backward). This is normal bull market behavior. Tomorrow is Thursday, and Thursdays are quite often Reversal Days!
Oils and Oil Service (XOI & OIH) trading higher again today.
Now I see 5 waves down from yesterdays close. This has GOT to be the bottom of the correction (after 2 strong advancing days)
I disagree - It looks to me like we have seen the lows for the day, and are about to resume the strong advance that began on Friday. I see higher lows on the short term charts.
Peter - on monthly and weekly it looks more like wave 2 or starting wave 3
I mean bottoms in the stock market (or tops in the gold index)
Have you called any recent bottoms
Ha! Ha! Ha!... (Even a stopped clock is right twice a day)
Obviously, if you are ALWAYS BEARSH, you will call EVERY TOP!!!
Kondratieff wave bottomed in 1789.
55 years later it bottomed again in 1844.
52 years later it bottomed again in 1896.
55 years later it bottomed again in 1949.
56 years later it bottomed again by now.
(So we are now in the spring)
Kondratieff wave bottomed in 1789.
55 years later it bottomed again in 1844.
52 years later it bottomed again in 1896.
55 years later it bottomed again in 1949.
56 years later it bottomed again by now.
(So we are now in the spring)
XOM CVX DVN PRFN APXR
A break-away gap out of an ascending triangle is a buy signal! (The train is moving out of the station, and he who hesitates is lost). So far today, the oils are moving higher as the broader markets trade lower. Crude oil is heading higher (just as you said it would).
so bottom line is BUY OIL STOCKS NOW!
Bottom line is OIL STOCKS will go HIGHER!
Peter - Ha Ha Yeah, must be some kind of technical indicator.
(Just like old times)
cash - You are right... you didnt say that. However, I can assure you that I am not a perma-bull by any stretch of the imagination (unless we happen to be in a bull market). In fact, I won a brand new Lexus in an online trading contest at ETrade by pyramiding puts. I didnt buy a single call in the entire month, and yet I managed to run $100,000 up to 2.2 million in 30 days flat! Needless to say, we were in a bear market at the time.
Good trading,
Thanks cash - I agree that there is way too much bearishness on this board, but that is nothing new. Best to you as well!
Robert
usa - Its nice to be back online after quite a bit of traveling and moving to a new residence here in Fortaleza. Its especially nice to see you are back on the board as well.
Best wishes, Robert
airedale - Always re-assuring to have your confirmation of intermediate bottoms via Hurst analysis. You are the last person I would fade!
Great post cash - Lets Rock! The oils are breaking out of a triangle continuation pattern and will probably continue to lead the bull market.
peg - If you think we are in a bear market, maybe you are looking at the tech stocks and ignoring the oils. Even the tech stocks are higher than they were ten days ago, or ten weeks ago, or ten months ago, or ten years ago)
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
cash - your long-term bullish scenario makes sense...
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
tq - "due to the bullish nature of the sum of larger cycles," there may be no retrace at all! (just "gap and run")
pete - maybe the force is both external and internal. There is no reason it has to be just one of the two.
koke - Now I understand. Thanks for explaining.
koke - Why "1 of 3" and not 1 of 5? The cycles and other indicators are saying this is a "bull market"
If so, we are beginning wave 3 of 5 up from August lows.
"A wave 3 is a thing of beauty!"
Buckster - I agree. It seems to fit with the high p/c ratio and start of 3/3 up from August low.
'Looks like my expected "melt-up" has finally begun. I don't think it's wise to step in front of this bull stampede!
The "high-five" index is "mega-bullish"
http://www.21stcenturyfutures.com/page/tcf/aboutus/highfive.html
The put/call ratio is also extremely bullish!
http://www.cboe.com/MktData/default.asp
xe2dy - No, the vertical purple bar is showing that the market is still rising. It has not reached a top yet. When the 5th wave begins, it could "go vertical" and surprise everyone! That often happens in final stages of markets with broad public participation (remember when gold shot up to $841.00/oz.)
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
Buzz - IMO if you are a realist, you will soon realize that the "bear party" is over!
I think Mr. Market is about to wake up and smell the roses!
I don't read other people's books and market letters. I am basing my opinion on my view of EW, Cycles, Sentiment (oddlots, put/call ratios, etc.), Funnymentals (leading and coincident indicators, book to bill ratios, interest rates, etc.), and Sector Leadership (see link)...
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
peg - I respectfully disagree... I think we have just completed wave 4 of the big bull market that began in 2002, and are now ready to begin wave 5 up to new highs (no, I didn't read it in anyone else's book) LOL
Dimension - Yes, I am still 100% long and I think we have finally hit bottom, although we could bounce around within Friday's trading range for a day or two before the new bull market begins. jwg has told us we should expect certain indicators to reach certain limits (ndx/vxn ratio below 50, qqq/vxn ratio below 1.25) and he was right. Now those limits have been reached, so the coast is clear for a major rally to begin.