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for those traders that feel like chickening out
Granted, confusion is our enemy, and the big boys make sure we get fed plenty in market movement and media, the more the better, just to keep little regular folks from making money.
Well, in such conditions buy SMALL position, then if "wrong" (will only be ST if any) then add more position lower.
Keep in mind that nobody is 100% clear, not even the crooks, I mean the big boys..
Don't let them fool you with their propaganda both in bot-induced volatility and in media, GET THEM
make no mistake, we have bottomed ST->> BuyBuyBuy
the problem is only (LOL) where and when and how to sidestep resistances
(this "only"is what separates traders from one another - beginners/good/better/best)
Even the fed told ya AGAIN that they can't/won't stop printing (basically supporting the market) !!!
Shorting is risky IMO, just stick with the government taxpayers' stolen money, I mean fed support...
We may get some volatility, shorts may make a buck (they deserve it too after so much suffering), but you better put your big boy trader pants on and Buy Buy Buy - (take your pick where/when according to your desire and knowledge, almost all, if not all is good game)
Now set your mindset properly and let's go get'em
would be interesting to see a surprise rate increase, even minor one
"hit'em when they are down"
VGS turned bullish, and, finally, whew, my sig came apart just as I expected (for a long time actually) and turned positive.
So in essence there is a bottom by those 2 sigs. I know, our friend Tragedy said it turned to sell (after 4 days of strong selling?) but this is what I see from my stuff, it (them) turned to BUY.
AS for this morning, I saw 2 opposite strong programs fighting each other. In order (of fighting and winning): Buying (mild), Selling (ferocious), Buying (ferocious), Selling (mild), Buying (mild-ferocious).
During these times, the bid/ask changed just the price, while the quantities hardly. This is how you understand that it is a bot with nearly 100% control.
Now that we (me) established that we have a confirmed bottom, it is anyone's guess to use his/her system to enter the market. IMO anything will work, even the most pathetic entries will be paid a profit. (just be cautious on using options too near expiration)
IMO the market WILL revisit the lows, and even dip lower, so a thing to keep in the back of the mind.
Don't know if you're being vague on purpose or why
but being clear is needed when you criticize, who knows, maybe will be helpful
"quit doing it" (finding tops/bottoms) - what exactly that would be? What it means? Why is bad?
"and trade the actual market!" - what exactly that would be? What is it exactly that you advice others to do?
From "quit doing it and trade the actual market!" what is one to understand? Just feeling bad and inadequate?
Is not helping.
FWIW we are all amateurs (not hired trading professionals)
The small question is where/when did you buy?
The day was large and where, especially when is important.
The big question is what do I do now?
1. Hold the pig hoping it will just gap and run
2. sell the pig for a hope it will sell to lows like yesterday
yesterday I had paper profit +15% then it evaporated and even plunged me in red -3% by close
I wouldn't like a repeat of that!
On the other hand, selling while it will keep running is another bad thing.
Scratching head doesn't help
Doll I know dear, but it's not for long ;)
This sig are lines bouncing around, doing their stuff. In this rare case two of the lines are too close to each other doing nothing (limp). Even under magnification the distance between them is less than 0.002" which is nothing, even literally, which is quite frustrating.
It goes on for too long now and it amazes me that today's volatility , which was mega, did NOTHING to those lines, a rare thing.
If tom will usher in more volatility it should have an impact for sure.
It ain't gonna remain limp for much longer so I'm going to hold onto my bags for that event.. ;)
I will probably add more calls, or redeploy exited position , whatever the case will be.
While selling into the close is not a big deal, I'm a bit shocked at the ferocity of selling into the close.
The markets were united and controlled. i.e. I looked at few top tiers and while the quantities (MMaking) were the same, their price however was changed in unison. This was the ask! So the selling was forced.
My paper profit on calls went from +15% to -3%
I've been at this movie few times, but still feels bad.
The bad part is more - the day does not have a long tail, the selling is at the close, there is no golden signal, and even more fascinating/worrying my own signal is still limp.
I hope I don't have to resort to averaging down to get my money.
I'm pretty confident I won't have to though, I think it will be trying for a run tomorrow, or the day after, or the day after ...LOL.
Turn those machines back on !
Turn those machines back on !
Turn those machines back on !
I can sense a "fight" tug-of-war between bots
of course, the main bot is what matters
some weakness in last minutes to induce complacency and attract shorts , just to skin them tom, JIMO
now that Santa ...margin-calls is over they want to rally the pig
ho ho ho
Some of my charts tell me the weakness is mounted seriously.
What this means: Bounce/upswing is more for trading than buy and hold. The lows will be revisited with a vengeance.
Now let's watch the EOD big boys trading for a clue for tomorrow, but I think we are in for a green Wednesday, the first green day of 2015.
I hope they make it big, above +2% gains, and if possible from a gap up ...of +2%
(my apologies to short holders)
ONLY RED so far for 2015, -3% W/M/Y
I guess this is another reason for a bounce
Man up and buy
(I didn't enjoy retrace 110% of the bounce1, but I suck it up, for now)
there is nothing else to use man but charts
I bet you that ICPT bounces off 145ish area and rally 14% from that in short order. Now that call's from chart, not using even indicators.
It did not yet happen, so you can sit back and watch the next 10 days should make it happen.
(this is just a call, for charts' sake argument, NOT an advice to trade!!!!)
yeah, well, it's all in charts in the-end
As I was envisioning on Dec 31 in my post : USDollar post 127483
We did sell that "lil more" as I followed up later with a post, and here we are...
I followed through, bought Feb calls (ST/swing)
As per plan A it retraced 50%, and that's a fair entry.
You have to bite the bullet at some point
Concerns: Not VGS yet (but in all fairness it needs a bit time), and most importantly (or should I say worrying) not my own GS formed yet.
But buying here under these conditions, in case of failure, should likely insure exit either with small loss or at the money or even with a small profit for the trouble.
Remember last V-manic-bottom from these levels.
Remember (to look on) my home-run chart -> buying zone here
market signaled bottom guys-> so Buy Buy Buy
It's not a clear cut signal yet, just ST and from the tape, but the lows of the day were BOUGHT HEAVILY, and match some of my criteria
Just some, but I guess less than perfect should be ok for now
Oh, and the VGS? Not formed yet, but is bouncing off old pivot, so... I guess that too can be constructed as a bullish coincidence..
Trying to buy close to ATM Feb calls (I'll buy QQQ not SPY, more insanity there)
>> Hand-holding ->
1. I think this should re-drop 100-50% from this VST bounce off the intraday bottom -> buy the thing then !!
2. (plan B) If the pig doesn't re-drop (V-bottom) you (me too) will have to buy higher , on the signal/pivot that will form above this bottom. This remains to be seen. (...remember the V bottom last time around from these levels)
NO golden signal yet! Tragedy bought on feel/old-golden-pivot. He had no fresh buy signal IMO.
I have to say this disclaimer -> I do NOT know Tragedy's golden signal! He never shared it (with me).
I extrapolated, etc, used my own things, and I think (only think) that I got it. My own things are not BS, so I think I'm right say 90% (I could be 100% , or better maybe, but too early to tell).
Let's call it virtual golden signal, or in short VGS.
I will try to post when virtual golden signal turns to buy. So far it remained sell. It's pretty simple thing really from where I'm standing but since I can't tell my own, unfortunately I can't tell his.
But as a compensation I will post my VGS status, especially, most important, when it turns.
I personally have other things to worry about than VGS, but I'll try to amuse (and hopefully help) the traders on this board.
But since it's not my main thing, and have stuff to attend to, it is advisable however for guys interested to remind/ask me to update VGS stat, and I will.
Bot most importantly --->
My headline chart "home-run" (which I update now and then for the benefit of all) shows clearly that we approach BUYing territory. One can BLINDLY buy and be fine, providing trading/money management guidance is followed to a T (stepping on fears and media BS).
FWIW I have my own preferred "golden signal". It too is NOT a buy yet, but can turn buy in a blink. My signal needs for SPY to rally a bit in a certain way to be triggered, then I have clear-cut entry level. So far is pressed and pressed hard, no relief in sight. Like I posted earlier, I feel (just like Tragedy) to jump the gun and go for it an buy some calls, but in my case only if we have another plunge, otherway thanks, I wait for my signal.
The market is dynamic. I only have PROBABLE levels, never too much ahead of time because it can change and compound and past calculations can be obsolete next day/week.
When buy signal/s do come (I expect tom) I'll buy Feb calls. If Feb calls is wrong I'd like someone to tell my why, honestly.
Not bottom yet (fed bottom2)
But we're not far
You have to be disciplined and wait for the right moment
Some don't realize that waiting equals trading, just like with hunting.
I'd prefer for tomorrow another good down day, so I can dig some calls ahead of the "gold signal".
IMO you can't draw trendline ignoring October lows
That October low is a very VERY important pivot that must not be left out of calculations.
At the very minimum, if you still want to hang on to the initial trendline you believe in, you need to draw 2 trendlines
Market has a footprint
just saying
(re TL1: I think was grossly broken, and this needs to be recognized. But then it was "mended". In conclusion, for the time being TL1 remains in the game, but a TL2 needs to be watched for backdrops)
isn't actually better to wait for the "golden-signal" than using the old pivot?
But I guess it worked in the past
I happen to agree with Gawddofwar's take (except timeline)
Just like you say, we're in BULL market still, BUT, we're NOT going to have a large correction just yet. You can pick your reason. I chose TA for now. Bottom is not far away (caution short holders).
I think another dump day like today should tame the selling a notch or even make a bottom. If the selling slows, then it can drag on more (I sense the latter is the game looking at the intraday bounces).
Also (bullish) for such a selling there is no volume, and this in spite of market participants being all back 100% !!!
So if it's unwinding, it's not much yet.
If not bottoming until then, looking to buy near/at Dec lows
looks more like Santa setup-and-slaughter than Santa rally all expected
judging from headlines I think the worm is about to turn on the bulls
(long) oil traders also are rather desperate (to support the oil) -> jet attacking a tanker ??? Saudi attacks???
2015 shapes to be different than 2010-2014
I think bears, whatever's left, can finally trade for livable profit
It seems my TA message is lost entirely
It also seems you take it rather personal? Really? This is cold TA observations and nothing else!
Let's try again:
Stochastics is a good tool and I know it works, and I use it all the time. BUT! In some instances it does NOT work, just like any other indicator is not a blanket swiss-pocketknife does all.
I use my own optimized stochastics and use it in conjunction with other indicators etc to further make it efficient.
I can use unoptimized stochastics and my TA on oil was exactly that, and it worked. You just have to know where and what to look for (into stochastics or any indicator).
IMO a signal is triggered by stochastics as soon as it tags a certain level in overbought/oversold. At that point, regardless of any other element (doji or no doji) the market turns (or should most of the time). My optimized stochastics do something of that, so when I look at it I don't need any other help, stochastics would stand on its own feet.
When I looked at those charts you presented, it can clearly be seen that stochastics was blinded to all but one case in TEN YEARS span. It only signalled a bottom in sept-oct 2011 and even that barely (and it's worth mentioning there was no doji involved even then)
These chart descriptions are facts, not my opinion.
In light of this rather gross serial missing I say stochastics is NOT working in that specific case.
I also elected some cases of doji FROM CHARTS , not my imagination, where doji happened, yet the market kept going. I specifically named those cases.
This was to portray that doji can hardly be trusted as a signal of reversal in vast majority of cases.
It amuses me when some get excited over doji, but also saddens me when they get misguided and take wrong side of the market because of it.
I made some study on doji, and IMO doji can be used in very few cases in traditional way, and I'd limit them IMO to stars and serial. But that's me.
I generally make doji part of the whole picture and seems better results for me.
Let me tell you why stochastics did not work in this case -> because it was a strong trend.
It's the basic 101 of such an indicator.
In this case it should be set aside and use a trend tool, even a simple moving average.
In conclusion or summary: a signal is when there is an objective simple crossover or tag of a certain line or level. I judge any indicator including stochastics performance by this standard. It is also very simple this way to see if it works or fails.
Let's try to remember we talk shop -- indicators, signals, etc
Also, let's try to keep it simple if possible. I am not a big fan of big words.
Thanks for TA debate and good trading
(I answered 2 days back but my phone deleted the msg and I just gave up and postponed to try again until now)
if ever was a secret, he only thinks he still has it as a secret
Using the parameters at hand I tried to "triangulate" the "golden signal". I got few things.
Anyone could do it IMO.
While I could not affirm I "got it" (his so called signal), I got pivots matching his (pivots of my own stuff). I'll be watching them (my own?) to see how accurate they go forward.
I would not mind describing it publicly, especially it being not something I use, not until now anyway, but 1) I have to do a bit lengthy explanatory, probably in few back-and-forth posts, and most importantly 2) in explanatory I'd have to give up some of my own trade secrets, things I developed over years, and that is just too much. Some of these "secrets" were in fact public, and even exposed for extended periods of time (years) in public forums, but 1) few guys if any managed to properly "get it" to use them, and 2) I refined them beyond the original. I don't take credit for them, but take credit for innovation.
One of the "secrets" (which I did not develop further) so I don't mind talking about it, is about stochastics vs resistance -> when not in sync , the resistance will collapse.
This is in fact a fantastic key ("secret") in how to use stochastics in some (not all) situations.
A great example is the recent Oil collapse of support. At the time I said Oil (support) will not hold and go lower, and I was looking at stochastics vs support and that clearly signaled a collapse of support, and there it was few days later.
I'm sure we all have some secrets, and like to keep them that way.
After all, our time spent (sometimes many years) and hard work has a lot of value and no one is willing to, or should give away that for free.
(I think exchange of trade secrets can be worked out sometimes - like partnerships or limited collaboration)
While we're not professional traders (that I know of), we do share many of their issues. One of them is that work, our work, has value, has a price, needs to be acknowledged, respected. Sometimes it even does not have a price as the owner says it's not for sale.
If the guy has a golden signal that he holds dear, I totally understand him (but only if he developed it).
I find it nice of him sharing the readings of his signal in timely manner so others can overlap with their own analysis to help with trading.
Happy and prosperous new year
Your chart is excellent example showing stochastics's WRONG tool.
Has been in overbought for years and years, no signal whatsoever.
Imagine a trader exiting when it got in overbought. Would've missed entire wonderful rally. Or worse, imagine him going ...short!
From useless it became outright toxic and dangerous.
Stochastics is a great indicator and I use it too, but in this case is beyond bad.
It did NOT signal anything, not even one thing. Not the so important top of 2007, not even the equally important bottom of 2009 !!!
If you see malfunction then it's a clear sign to stop using it and use something else that works.
While this one analysis on doji is correct, it is completely unrelated to stochastics in any way, and probably even tainted by mentioning the NOT working stochastics.
As per same given chart, July and December(LOL) of 2012, and February 2013 were under similar conditions, and yet, no selloff ensued but more rally.
(see also throughout the frustrating year 2006)
204.6-ish is a bottom ST (or for today)
(target is near recent highs)
it is worth taking it for a long trade
If it breaks lower it's a strong chance it will rise back AT LEAST to this level.
So a good trading plan is to buy some here and average down if needed.
Any of these things will happen pretty fast, so trading it with options should be fine (not exaggerated decay).
it's not a gamble if you succeed often
it comes down to that one factor
it's a pretty simple identification (also an important one)
I thought I clarified that
maybe it got lost
---------------------
trading what you see vs what you think
I think seeing is subjective thus that's why traders get in trouble (bad trades).
What you think is similar to seeing, and very connected, so neither is a good thing for trading.
Thinking however is correlated to experience/s , so in that sense it's superior and may be used successfully if enough learning/experience accumulated.
Best things/tools for trading are anything that is objective, meaning completely unrelated to what a trader think or see, so no emotions involved. That's why trading programs are so successful, because traders programmed into them what they thought based on experience, then let them use objective parameters emotionless.
A human has superiority over programs only when it comes to changes, as a computer can not sense, but a human can.
Using tools (indicators etc) has on big problem, it needs a choosing. I still can't make up my mind if humans are needed or not for this decision/s. I've red about systems doing good then fail miserably as they did not switched the choice of tools, or done it too late or badly.
It feels good to feel you still have an edge as a human over bots.
Like any lotto(betting) one shows the one-big prize
What is missing from the picture is the risk, and the frequency of big wins. That will make justice to the picture and make it whole.
Oh, and most important of them all, but not an obligation, the percentage of total account funds gambled. (percentage CAN be revealed as is not dollar numbers, just %, so person wealth privacy is kept, while trading/gambler mastership is shown)
If the frequency of big wins is great, and more importantly bigger than the frequency of big losses, then it is .....NOT a lotto/gamble.
(I short too now and then)
Anyway, congrats to you on your win, and to anyone that shorted and made money, well done.
Reminder: trend is UPWARD !!!
So I don't want you guys make foolish mistakes.
For those that shorted it was a GAMBLE. If it worked, then fine, enjoy, but be realistic, it was GAMBLING.
I know and agree it's a lot of fed-BS this market, but fact remains technically (!!!) that it's a BULL uptrend market !
Consequentially this is not a market to try shorting, not for the small traders anyway.
Until this changes and this turns into a selling market, we should focus on one thing, and one thing only - BUY DA DIPS ! (nevermind what causes them!)
Use a method, ANY method, of your liking to fish for the bottom of any dip (like this dip now) and buy the darn dip, and make money for you. The dips are where the big backs are. Don't be afraid!
This market will make you right as a dip buyer, even on most stupid trades. Don't take my word for it, just look at the charts.
(on the other hand, shorts when they got wrong they were punished, punished severely, and remained punished, no saving grace)
Few posts back I estimated if-this-then-that dip (bottom) scenario, and you may use that as well for guidance. It may bottom before or after that, but WILL bottom !!!
And as always, keep the eyes on the "home-runs" chart to get the big juicy trades, and yes, ultimately see when the uptrend breaks down. (it will not break down without a fight, meaning you'll have a chance to get out as long)
The simplistic way to see a trend is to look at the 200 day, and for most less market savvy traders it's ok I guess, but if you look at major market turns you'll see it is NOT so, and watching 200 day can skin you alive if the market turns on you. One of the best places to see this is Oil charts. Lots of traders got raped severely following the 200 day dogma. It just ain't it!
As a quick evaluation tool, 200 day point represents one year of trading. That's about it. To use it properly you need far more TA work, and this is NOT what most want -> WORK.. (brrr)
50 day is by far better tool to use than 200 day for (lazy) traders. It is outstanding actually. My "home-run" chart has it (of course!) but ignores addressing it for trading purposes, and not because is not good, but because there is something there even more so important, and that is made crystal clear.
One more time -> do NOT get overly excited by the selling (hopefully a more substantial selling). It is a dip (or correction), and we should buy the dip and piggy-ride the fed, right along the crooks the fed is helping.
so yeah, ...that "lil' more" did happen by-EOD/M/Y
so everything else is trying to follow through in that prediction
cool
hey, just TA, no emotions
(nat)GAS -why would you risk money in a market with such massive chocking oversupply
To be honest, this can greatly affect the price of oil too if not already happening. So that makes me concerned a bit too to be honest now that I mention it.
From heating perspective too, except maybe Alaska, US is having a mild winter, only Europe seems to get snow and freezing, but then that's Putin's turf, and while he started to cut percentages of supply for some (political?) reasons, that drop it is not helping much in the big bucket of gas supply (and Putin's currency needs).
So supply will continue to be of flooding kind!
I didn't look at all PM, just GOLD
I consider GOLD the standard/leader etc
From what I can tell GOLD is not even remotely good like oil is for a tradeable bottom, let alone "much better".
While I traded GOLD, I chose to stay away from it (had enough pain and suffering ignoring charts).
But I could be wrong, and if you see a buying opportunity I didn't, then by all means take it and I'll be happy for you.
I stick with the oil
Usually I scratch my head what horse to trade, oil or gold. This time is oil.
GOLD can absolutely rally about 200, but also has a rather severe (chart) downside double than that to bellow 1000, so risk reward is not tilted funny.
if we sell a lil' more chances will be good for a revisiting of last correction lows... you know, the one the market rallied vertically in 2 days from !!
We might even go lower than it.
(resulting in: 1st> lower high and 2nd> lower low !).
It will be an interesting Santa rally believers crowd being punished merciless.
After all, newbies and poor-knowledgeable lil traders got gratification on every single bullish expectation, so why not believing and taking a trade on Santa..
We should see how this plays out first (today).
next week/month/year I'll buy oil, NOT Santa-rally lipstiked-inflated-pig-market
The oil was under pressure right into the last trading day of the year, just as I envisioned
The fools that hurried to buy in the otherwise exciting little mini-rallies are probably bitter by now.
It was hard though, even for me was hard to stay put and hold on the buy orders, but I listened to my friend 'Discipline' and complied.
But looking forward I tell ya things change and change DRAMATICALLY !!!
By now I suspect a lot of oil bulls (just like inflated-market bears) are out either significantly, or totally, have either blew their accounts or have destructive losses!
So a lot of the "(not so) little traders" being taken out of the game, it's time for the big guns, the only ones left untouched (thanks to the government) to dig in and bottom the oil (short at the same time heavy and top the stock market?).
We the honest citizens do not get reckless financial help from the government , only the few selected too-big-to-jail they are in bed with get such unlimited law-breaking government tax-payer funds for betting.
However, we can go trade along the crooks and make some money.
I suggest we all take that oil train along the "big-crooks", I mean big-boys.
(caution: while anything is possible, and we'll all could be made sorry for not buying around here, I do not think oil bottomed yet)
the WICK is engineered
The purpose could be this , that, or the other
but they can change it as they go, whatever suits them best
The print is not a fake, those are actually trades, so that's why they (chart service providers) can not take them off, because they are legitimate (trickery done, but legit)
The more important question is how they intend to use it
there are quite a number of ways, some here described beautifully some of them
SPY will go almost to the top of it IMO ("fake" or not), so in that regard it does look like a beacon or a target
My opinion is that they want to use it to manipulate trading programs that use charting data
Remember, the corrections almost always hit when all just gave up on one (like now??)
this isn't a special year closing at HOY
2009 closed near HOY
2010 closed at HOY
2012 closed near HOY
2013 closed at HOY
2014 closing at/or near HOY
are you starting to see it?
(the only scare is to try to avoid 2008 type of a year - some hope is always next year to come)
THIS is the day (setup) getting bears excited
not the other story
But it's worth mentioning that by the same token, the longs get excited on a daily basis with no fail not punishment (your posts are mirroring this excitement)
It looks that they intend to close the year 2014 at the highs.
They don't give anything back, not even a red cent.
the 100% odds in your favor are spectacular
that's for longs
Going short has been fighting hard with small odds and plenty of frustration.
Comparing trades for longs vs shorts is also a telling story, as long trades have been yielding both larger and more frequent profits than shorting.
I thought we all agreed markets are controlled
We have evidence nearly on a daily basis.
(i.e. horrible news are great and bullish)
So in conclusion nothing can trigger anything, all is under control
Long live the Matrix
-----
on the other hand, we have charts telling us dips are corrections , OPPORTUNITIES to be bought
It worked EVERY SINGLE TIME !!!
Now that's what? ONE HUNDRED PERCENT ACCURACY !!! (100%)
Isn't this the ideal thing? Isn't this the type of trading edge we all should be using ???
Some note that we are (so) at highs
What is not mentioned is the calendar factor. Sometimes it is essential!!!
Like now for example - it is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT !!!
Closing at highs it would mean closing at highs in multiple time frames, and, oh yeah, a very important one, the YEARLY time frame.
Now closing the year at highs almost GUARANTEES a higher market next year. I'm not saying it, the analysis is saying it.
It might be the last hurray, it might be slim bull-trap style of gain, no one knows for sure, but the fact remains that it WILL go higher from the close of 2014. So buying the close of 2014 will nearly guarantee a profit. I think lot of people see it, so that contribute to why we don't see any more dipping, and market is stuck in sideways slim range.
Any dip now will be bought. We may have a small dip next day, hopefully, but as you can see the futures and the trading days have been grinding slightly in the green "magically".
As we can see the oil continues to be under pressure as I envisioned. But we should all have the eyes on it to ride it up from the bottom , not just the big money. Let's not let the big money have all the fun.
All this grinding up is not all bad, as surely we all like lower price of options.
I'll drink to that
Now let's go party