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>>>US war planners accuse Rumsfeld of "micromanaging" Iraq forces<<<<
Rumsfeld also washed his hands of any involvement with the planning of this war the other day when peppered by the press, saying: "This is Tommy Franks' war". The secretary of defense tells the world he had nothing to do with the blueprint of a war he and Richard Perle, Paul Wolfowitz and Dick Cheney have salivated over for the past 6 years?
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/nightline/DailyNews/pnac_030310.html
>>>Allies today, enemies tomorrow. The world is ever changing.<<<
The question is how good these so called "good wars" are if they turn former allies into casual observers or enemies? Much of the list of 30, 40 or 50 countries of "allies" for this war is made up of specks on the map most have never heard of. They qualify as allies not because they supply troops or help finance the war, but because they need OUR financing for their internal struggles. Amazingly, Turkey turned down $25 billion in bribes due to the threat of revolution by 90% of its population.
>>>What I'm trying to say is that wars fought for the protection and security of the United States and our allies are by definition "good wars";<<<<
And what if one of those "good wars" turns 80-90% of the world's population against us, including a majority of our most powerful allies and their leaders? Is it still a good war?
>>>Fisk was referring specifically to administration officials, NOT REPUBLICAN TALK SHOW HOST!.<<<
Read my post again please. I did NOT say republican talk show HOSTS. I said Republican talk show GUESTS. Names that come to mind include Orrin Hatch, Roy Blunt and J.D. Hayworth. There are many more, and Ari Fleisher has gone down that same road several times during his briefings. Any of these guys count as legitimate representatives of the republican party?
>>>What reporter would say "they persuaded themselves of this Hollywood scenario of GIs driving through the streets of Iraqi cities being showered with roses..."? That's an opinion, not a fact.<<<
Actually, that IS a fact. I've lost count of all the republican talk show guests that have painted that exact picture. It's been the standard lead-in to how the international community will finally come around and join us. Once (not if) the partying starts in the Iraq streets, rose showers and all, nobody wants to be left out they say - not even the French.
>>>Just power and money for the elite and the peasants suck it up without realising what is being done to them. Sad.<<<
And you thought you were disgusted already. Now try this:
"How an average $90,000 tax cut for each millionaire counts as sacrifice is only one of many unexplained mysteries as Republican leaders fiercely protect President Bush's second wave of tax cuts. The gallant troops in Iraq who are being invoked daily in speeches by members of Congress might be interested to know that the array of cuts includes an estimated $14 billion reduction in military veterans' programs."
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/25/opinion/25TUE2.html?th
>>>Am I the only Repub who is against war?<<<
Actually I think you are. Even democrats are starting to feel a little lonely speaking up which has all but destroyed the only opposition party we have. This whole country is and has been on a patriotic paralysis trip since September 2001 with no end in sight. Basically, this president has declared our country at war indefinitely while his party with lots of help by the media demands absolute loyalty to the president while at war. Tuff to excercise your constitutional rights effectively under such circumstances. This will resolve itself eventually but damage will be done in the process and patience will be a virtue.
>>>COALITION forces have found a "huge" chemical weapons factory at An Najaf, some 360km south of Baghdad, Fox News Channel reported today,<<<<
FOX News = Bush's house organ. It may well be true, and if it is, someone other than the "fair and balanced" crowd will confirm it. Until such time, I remain skeptical.
>>>Clear statements of purpose and follow thru: No ambiguities here!!<<<<
You keep posting that speech as a canned response to any and all criticism of Bush. You got any comments of your own regarding Bush's diplomatic failures during the seven months that followed the speech?
>>>What do you mean?
There was unanimous backing from the UN with 1441?<<<<
I think he means that the arrogance of Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld sabotaged any hope of a strong coalition buildup. Neither of the three likes to travel, all three show an open fascination with war and an open contempt for foreigners regardless of nationality. You think this was lost on the world who watched James Baker fly tirelessly around the globe, meeting with world leaders while building a near unanimous global coalition prior to Desert Storm? Bush's grab-bag of reasons for the war didn't help either. First it was WMD, then regime change, then liberation of the Iraq people and "This man tried to kill my daddy". And through it all, endless references to 9/11 kept flying while his own intelligence flatly denied any connections. If this wasn't the biggest diplomatic fiasco in US history, then I'd be curious to know what tops it.
>>>He was so obviously trigger happy and it was so transparently an election strategy that only those who already agreed with him and believe in the John Wayne version of the US either can't or pretend not to see it. It was/is irresponsible, and that is what everyone is reacting to.<<<
Very well put. THIS and not necessarily war itself is what bothers so many. This war was sold like a used car, and for some reason, 50% of Americans bought the clunker while only 10-15% bought it overseas. Everyone had the same information including Bush's, Powell's and Blix's presentations, and yet almost to the last decimal, only those who voted for or sympathized with Bush went along with the charade, pretending the case he made was solid.
>>>Are you serious? Every astute political observer on the face of the planet would have told you that war is a way to expend political capital, not gain it. Any post-war gains will be short-lived - 1992....Duh!<<<
Remember Bush's "You're either with us or against us" that he bullhorned to the global community? If that's what he expected from foreigners, then I think the message to US citizens was pretty clear. Not only has the Bush administration demanded absolute loyalty - they haven't even been discreet about it. For instance, Dick Cheney was videotaped at a 2002 campaign function telling the audience their safety would be compromised unless they voted republican. As for short lived post-war-gains - haven't we already sampled part of the fix for that problem? On to the next war in Iran or N. Korea. Bush without a war.......scary thought for republicans.
>>>There should be a lot of warnings coming in throughout techs, but especially in chips and equipments.<<<<
You've been spot on about the chips and the equip. makers, BUT, no matter how horrible the warnings or the actual earnings, these stocks have been babied throughout this whole bear. Show me another chip down cycle (never mind the worst bear in history) where the equpment makers never got below 4 X sales. Best I can tell, 2 X sales appears to be the standard trough valuation, but for reasons I haven't figured out yet, this time they should be bought at twice that.
>>>When is that? Two weeks? Two months? Two years? Who decides?<<<
Blix already said it would be a matter of months.
>>>I presume the U.S. bears 100% of the burden by keeping our troops over there?<<<<
Money was never an issue throughout this mess and it certainly shouldn't be an issue if maintaning troops in standby mode is a requirement for possibly avoiding war.
>>>The mission of the UN inspectors is to VERIFY Iraqi compliance! They are not charged with "finding" WMD. There is no way in hell they'll find WMD in a country the size of Iraq. It's ludicrous.<<<
You're missing the point. Give the inspectors another month or two that they're asking for REGARDLESS of what they are actually doing and accomplishing. Once they're done, the inspection card can no longer be played by the opposition and the US will have a much stronger case for using force.
>>>Your proposal doesn't build legitimacy for the operation. It makes the UN a laughing stock.<<<
So what? You asked me what I think the US should do as an alternative to rushing to war. You didn't ask me what the UN should do to improve on its image.
Bush's craving for war? Do you really believe that?
>>>What is your solution?<<<
I say let the inspection team finish up to the point where they feel they have done all they can. They may not uncover another weapon, WMD or otherwise, but that's beside the point. One of the alternatives have then been exhausted which is important in building legitimacy for the operation. Much of the resistance in the UN and the global arena in general stems from the appearance of illegitimacy created by Bush's craving for war and lack of interest in allowing the "pre-war process" to play itself out.
>>>I'm concerned, but not about Bush. I'm concerned about the rationality of the global public.<<<<
I'm trying to maintain an open mind on this, but is it reasonable to conclude that 80-90% of the world's population, plus 50% of the US population is just plain "irrational" and that only the remaining fractional minority "get it"? As best I can tell, the disagreement has less to do with whether Saddam Hussein must be dealt with or not than with how to go about it. If it's irrational to question the wisdom of pre-emptively pulverizing a sovereign nation - civilians, infrastructure and all - in the center of the earth's most notorious powder keg, then so be it.
>>...in a letter signed by neo conservatives to Clinton during his administration.<<<
For those who dismiss this story as nonsense, ABC's Nightline is covering it now. Most would agree they have a solid reputation for accurate, well researched reporting.
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/nightline/DailyNews/pnac_030310.html
>>>How it is handled is not public information<<<<
If the intervention buying is conducted by the big houses (Merrill, GS, SSB etc.), how do they get around the insider trading issue? In other words, a number of people at large brokerage firms have prior knowledge of where the market will find support or even rally and we are to believe that this is not leaked to trading desks other than those assigned to intervene....? Pretty good gig - take a long position and then use federal funds to guarantee a profitable trade.
>>>what has happened to the media..they are certainly not friendly to dems or anything that seems to question /bush and his policies..as someone that considers themselves middle of the road, this is scary.<<<<
You could see this coming during the 2000 election campaign when Al Gore's dress code and nursery rhyme references were bigger stories than GW Bush's drug abuse charges, AWOL charges, lies about arrest record and DUI bust combined. Much of it stems from the GOP's "liberal media" drumbeat IMO which has reporters trying too hard to vindicate themselves. As a result, the only way to get unvarnished news these days is from overseas sources such as BBC. http://www.bbc.co.uk/?ok
>>>Whether you choose to believe it or not, Bush is surrounded by some incredibly smart people.<<<
And some incredibly stupid people who have managed to lose a global PR war against Saddam Hussein. Books will be written about this administration's lack of diplomatic skills and its ability to trash iron-clad international alliances almost overnight.
>>>I surmise they're waiting for the pro Bush poll numbers to sway below the 50% before displaying what little backbones they have.<<<
No more excuses then:
http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/02/27/bush.poll/index.html
US Diplomat throws in the towel
Very damning assessment of the Bush administration by a 20-year State Department veteran:
"But until this Administration it had been possible to believe that by upholding the policies of my president I was also upholding the interests of the American people and the world. I believe it no longer."
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/27/international/27WEB-TNAT.html?pagewanted=print&position=top
>>>From Briefing.com -- "...Multiples on the S&P 500 are very reasonable,<<<<
And others say just the opposite:
"Moreover, it is assumed that the stock market has adequately “priced in” a war, implying that equities are now trading at a discount. This is false. Price to earning multiples for the S&P 500 are near historic highs at 29 times actual earnings, double what the index traded in January 1991, when the war began."
http://www.forexnews.com/ai/default.asp?f=A20030211A.mgn
>>>I'm sure that it will be attributed to the apparently lesser chances of a war but, if a war had become MORE likely, it would have been attributed to that, as well.<<<<
The only thing that seemed more clear after today's briefing was that America will go to war backed by the UK and the likes of Bulgaria and Turkey, but without official UN support and without support by China, Russia, Germany, France, world opinion and 65% of Americans. That's bullish? I failed to see it and got clobbered.
>>>SNDK...mentioned this one yesterday. Think it's worth a look. I'm long.<<<<
Too early IMO. Two gaps waiting to fill below at 14.79-14.27 and 13.55-13.25. Gaps have filled without exception so far in this bear and I'm betting real money this one won't be any different.
>>>my best profits last year were shorting semi equips on "rallies"<<<
Seems like it's become somewhat of a self fulfilling prophesy for the market to defy bad news from the semis. Saw it with KLAC, AMAT and INTC last quarter and then AMAT again today. Reality tends to set in a day or two later though.
>>>...just watching in awe of the money they are spending at doing this.<<<<
Mlsoft,
If this is what's been going on, where are all their holdings kept? How do they unload into future strength without tanking the indexes instead? Very slowly I guess. But if they are engineering these miracle turnarounds time and again, it's gotta take massive amounts of $$ to do it and they must hold boatloads of equities at this point. I'm typically careful when subscribing to conspiracy theories, but I'm beginning to question whether this marketplace is as "free" as we are led to believe. A little too much celebration of late in the face of dismal news.
>>>>Zran loooks like a head and sholders setup on the dailies ready to rivisit its $9 low.<<<<
Looks like a busted h&s. Measures to $4 from where I sit (if it confirms).
>>>the public is getting ready to tune Bush out under the assumption that he is going into Iraq and that it will be over with in 30 days.<<<
The war itself may be over in 30 days. I don't think it's clear that the aftermath of the war will dissipate that quickly, or how the aftermath will affect the economy, the markets and global relations in general.
Last night's earnings were "good"? That's what I read in a couple of earlier posts. MOT beat but guided lower and so did RFMD and XLNX. Has any tech company worth mentioning NOT guided lower so far?
4:19PM RF Micro Device beats, guides down (RFMD) 6.91 +0.06: Reports Q3 (Dec) earnings of $0.08 per share, $0.03 better than the Multex consensus of $0.05, company sees Q4 EPS of a loss of $0.01 to breakeven vs Multex consensus of $0.03.
4:26PM Xilinx issues March qtr guidance (XLNX) 22.56 -0.03: -- Update -- Expects March qtr revs to be $285-$295 mln, vs consensus of $293.5 mln.
5:26PM Motorola tops Q4 consensus; guides Q1 (MOT) 8.75 -0.02: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.13 per share, $0.03 better than the Multex consensus of $0.10; revenues rose 3.2% year/year to $7.55 bln vs the $7.05 bln consensus; for Q1 Mar, expects revs of $6.0-$6.2 bln and EPS in range of breakeven to $0.02 profit (Multex consensus $6.1 bln revs and $0.05 profit).
>>>RFMD setting up for classic head-and-shoulders formation. A chance to buy later in mid-5's?<<<<
Or at least upper 5's. Gap calling from below at 6.20 - 5.80.
>>>Fleck permabear. Since we have been in a bear market he has been correct, but he will never turn bullish.<<<
Many of the permabears were born during the 90's when valuations got out of hand. I can see Fleck turning at least partially bullish once this market is allowed to reach historical bear market trough valuations, i/e, when most others have thrown in the towel. For the S&P, that would be a P/E of 8 I believe - a long drop from 30 which is where it rests now.
>>>The naz has basically based for 2 weeks with no real damage<<<
Based or worn out support at NDX 1000/COMPX 1350?
>>>Certainly, the short interest in CCMP went down sharply as the shorts were forced to cover in the rally that started in October..<<<<
I agree the short interest is probably lower now than it was in late October, but I wonder why it got as high as 45% in the first place. That's usually a ratio reserved for outfits surrounded by grave concerns for one reason or another. I'm curious and will continue to dig.
>>>CCMP is another story. It could be the next NVDA type tech collaspe if the dreaded flat 03 earnings comes out of management's mouth.<<<
I noticed CCMP's short interest was 45% of its float late October. That's a large number by any standards but nobody here seems concerned. Could be rocket fuel with a big rally, but I suppose it could be something rotting semewhere too. Clues anyone?
>>>>I think you guys forget that this show is for entertainment. They want the most amount of folks walking away from that show to feel good and return. Doom and gloom doesn't sell. They want to tell folks what they want to hear, not what they should listen to.<<<<<<
I think there's a tendency to assume honesty and integrity is automatically a part of a network that reports financial and investment news. CNBC obviously makes that assumption look foolish which is why I stopped watching 6 months ago. Removes another element of emotion which improves trading decisions IMO.
>>>>damn, my luck has to change someday,, question is
can I last till then????<<<<<
Please don't take this the wrong way, but If you pin your hopes on luck, I don't like your odds of lasting.
>>>Pilots, attendants, mechanics, rampers are all overpaid! This says it all: Today, senior mechanics make up to $35.14 an hour<<<
A "senior" mechanic at United may have 30 or 40 years of employment behind him. Considering the responsibilities involved, is $35/hr grossly excessive for a company professional with three decades of employment?
>>>Unions suck.<<<
Yes, sometimes they do, but as the saying goes: "A company deserves the union it gets".
>>>...for now investor's are "nostalgic" for the good ole days of 1999/2000...<<<
And why shouldn't they be? The SEC is getting weaker when it was promised they would get stronger, leaving the door wide open for more creative accounting, more brokerage house sleaze and another round of blistering earnings "growth".
"We're in a very bad situation," said Charles A. Bowsher, a former comptroller general of the United States. "It is probably one of the weakest oversight positions at one of the worst possible times."
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/01/business/01SEC.html?todaysheadlines
NVLS CEO: "..we are probably at a bottom... notes that, at these levels, the safe bet is that things stay flat.."
"Probably" at a bottom and hopefully things stay flat? One would think most of this blathering is built into NVLS' gain of 100% in the past six weeks? But then..