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Gold has a true selling doji (or spinning top?)
Oil too is consolidating the drop and waiting for some heavy shoe to drop bellow support. The stochastic support the drop too.
Since these two main components are opposite to USD it means something will happen, or they just will selloff and the USD rally as a result.
USD rally means selloff in markets. At least that's what has been.
Very interesting and likely very volatile markets ahead of us.
(so don't expect cheap options)
VIX to da moon?
Stop,OK, let's think fundamental-QE-ing from ECB criteria side
If QE is in the states the money is channeled through Banksters to prop the US markets.
Now if the ECB does QE, does that QE dough also go to US Banksters to prop US market?
I think not.
I think they have their own interests at heart, their own markets to prop and attract capital.
The market may rally on hopes our own thugs will play a QE-war and will out-print out-fiat the ECB printing.
(EURO seems unchanged vs USD !!!)
So while the trend is up, and we see the evidence of that, I think this move, FOR NOW, is only going on speculation and fumes.
ANY disappointment from QE side and the market will be sold with panic..
Now this is fundamental-QE analysis and I could be right or wrong.
What say you guys
(January 13 HOD is the next significant resistance. If taken out the bulls will rage again)
well said
Looks kike they want another 'V' bottom !?!
(so much for ..."The end of V bottom"...)
It only looks like is news created, but it's all in the charts, which is nothing less than technical parameters of everyone and everything involved.
I don't see any losers that used my "Home runs" chart.
The market just rally off it like magic.
EASY MONEY
And most importantly! 100% guaranteed profit!
Now beat that if you can
(January 13 HOD is the next significant resistance. If it's taken out then bulls will be again raging)
Options offer something unique
1) LIMITED RISK (outstanding feature)
2) knowing it from moment 1
I am aware that some traders think otherwise, but Bad (or good) trades have nothing to do with Options whatsoever.
I like to trade options for swings and straight ETF for daytrades (I rarely daytrade anymore)
Paper trading is much MUCH easier than real trading because there is no (real) money on the line, so no fear.
Options because their limited risk, have some of that "paper trading" feel to it...
This in turn should IMPROVE your performance of trading.
Having said that, trading options is no piece of cake either, as it has its own dark side - the decay factor, thus successful (or failing) trades depend and reflect ones timing and charting ability.
If the timing is off, of course the options will decay, but don't blame them, blame the timing (the trader aka the Boss).
(i.e. my loser was a conscious decision to sell at a loss based on charting. The price HALVED after that (!) so in retrospect this loser was a virtual winner allowing me to redeploy the capital MUCH lower)
I'd say in this go-go market with fed behind it, this timing need is less apparent, and we have some mediocre traders pulling off good trades, woohoo...
Excellent
I did too (reluctantly though)
--------------------
FOOD FOR THOUGHT !!!!! (my trades)
Trades this year 3 rounds (pretty steep for percentage of the account though!)
OPTIONS(calls)
Trade1) in 2.88 ; out 3.16 (winner , 28¢ , or +10%)
Trade2) in 2.10 ; out 1.74 (Loser , 36¢ , or -17%)
Trade3) in 2.64 ; out 3.16 (winner , 52¢ , or +20%)
Options were ITM. If they were OTM maybe the percentages would be much higher, doubles at a minimum, but as explained earlier in a past post this IMO is baloney good just for options writers.
Important is the capital traded - I got better profit if not higher than those supposedly higher percentagers (do your math and you will see for yourself).
Anyway, let's go on with the explanatory.
HOW should we look at this? Hmm
3 trades
Method 1: the amount of money increased my whole account by about +3%
Method 2: combine the percentages of winners = 13% winning
Method 3: averaging the percentages of winners = 4.3% winning
Method 4: counting the fact that each trade was NOT equal in quantity , and the loser was just 40% in quantity of any winner = +20% (Method2) or 7.16 (Method3) winning
Those methods are not bad, but how about the real deal!?
The Method 4 but looked from a proper perspective:
Method 5: SAME capital invested each trade. (so if is a winner you scale back, if is a loser you add, to make it same trade size in $ quantity)
(at end of) Trade 1 = 1,100 (Bal gain 100); trade 2 (pretending was not just 40% only) = 913 (Bal gain -70); trade 3 = 1,200 (Bal gain 130)(still +13% !)
Method 6: We take in account the starting quantity of a trade. Let's say $1,000.oo
I trade this SAME quantity OF DOLLARS as if was entire account.
(at end of) Trade 1 = 1,100 ; trade 2 (pretending was not just 40% only) = 913 ; trade 3 = 1,096 (still +10% !)
If we make adjustment for 40% on trade 2 will be 1100; 1025; 1230 = +23% (this is real actually)
Here's the thing : If we stick in there some big losers trades , the Method 5 and 6 will show that I will be "trading" with trades of 100 or less from that mighty 1000 !
Of course, if we stick in there some big winners then each trade is dealing with a bigger capital.
I hope I shed some light on the board.
Method 22: 2 winners out of 3 = I am at +66% success rate
Wow, gee, +66%...
This sounds fantastic
What do you guys think here reflecting reality and what would help promoting my Ego.
watch IWM (leader) for guidance
It shows great weakness (concerning for bullish side)
but again, it went too far too fast so maybe it takes a back seat for a bit!?
How the EOD goes about is really important IMo today with all the divergences.
Given this is a short week I say it is bullish traditionally.
The late selling created some resistance above.
However, I see business as usual -> go down in big volume (like this morning) then rally to highs on pitiful volume..
The game goes on
I don't use many indicators
Too many advisers (indicators) don't mean you're better off, maybe more confused. Sometimes they even collude.
I didn't say you were wrong (about chart)
I said the CHOICE of shape is wrong IMO (choice of kind of triangle).
Basically, use the same triangle you have but the lower line make it horizontally (from dec lows). There, you will have it.
This is as simple as it gets.
The choice of your triangle is fine IMO only during a strong move.
because of stop-running I use mental stops
Had you use mental stops they could've never do that to you.
So my opinion is quitting because running of stops issue, an ancient issue actually, is wrong.
My latest fears on currencies is that some brokerages may be exposed themselves to risks and may take otherwise good accounts with them. i.e. Swiss debacle
About your chart:
The way I draw trendlines that triangle lower trendline is violated, and we witness some bold sellers showing up (from violation line). It is my way of drawing so is not shown here.
More importantly, you did make few valid points there and I'm sure many traders look at the same shapes.
IMO the triangle is totally wrong to look at, not now anyway.
The down channel has more validity than the triangle but still not the right thing to draw.
The right thing to draw IMO is a (imperfect) triangle using your resistance line (so keep that line as is good and valid), and draw a horizontal line from the bottom of the triangle (dec lows).
Now if THAT triangle is broken either way, we have a signal.
Meanwhile we're witnessing the fight for 50 day average, result which should sip into the triangle I mentioned.
Note how the cycles inside the (whatever) triangle are getting shorter. A move is coiling up.
We shall see
JMO of course
any expl is better than none
I tend to buy your expl of SP500 futures traded yesterday as it makes sense (and I'm more than aware of this sense as I encounter it in currencies).
Problem is this: I looked at (FINVIZ) futures chart and we're given not one but two variants.
The daily chart kinda support your theory, which is fine, but then when I switched to hourly timeframe the futures did not go nowhere near the lows what the daily chart shows for the same given day, yesterday which is January 19.
Based on past (similarly stinky) situations, my take is this:
The market is always real, no baloney, as we all look at it and can take a hand-held calc and get the correct percentage in a sec.
While the "reported percentages" are blatant shameless lies.
(i.e. I have seen a stock, not penny, down -10% in red real, yet reported on screens as green +70%)
For a political point of view I understand, so the citizens/constituents/bulls don't see red as they are allergic to red, so they sometimes BS it green on screens and platforms, sometimes, but I can not see the practical trading point, other than make some temporary and very limited confusion. It seems to me too much trouble for the effort.
futures-SP500 up +1.73% yet SPY only +0.41% ???
Can someone explain this ginormous disparity ?
the metrics between QQQ($100) and SPY($200) are identical
(that's talking options of course)
trading QQQ is like trading half SPY
QQQ is 100 , SPY is 200
If QQQ moves 10¢ SPY moves 20¢
You have to put double the dough for SPY for a double move, so essentially you end up in the same place, as you could put same dough you want for SPY into QQQ and get the same matching G/L.
I checked it out and these were my results.
If someone has an input on this I'd love to hear and learn.
I'd say an advantage I can see is that buying SPY, more expensive (double), thus less units to buy (half of QQQ), would result in LESS commissions (half).
If commissions are not an issue, either you have good deals with your broker, or you trade small, then QQQ becomes superior because you can be more surgical with "smaller" units.
Both ETFs are extremely liquid, including their options.
(It sucks to have to buy options Friday for over the weekend)
Good move
selling seems exhausted, selling hammer is in long weekend already LOL
L-Back, the only thing on that chart that shows value IMO is the DOW HLP. Good find and thanks for pointers.
Some here show charts but no pointers and it is then just a useless pic.
The reason is working (IMO) is because it's during an uptrend, and zero represent (revealed if you will) the bottom where market wants to give in in uptrend.
Having said that, a true indicator management is something that can work no matter what conditions (up/down-trend). In absence of that, as a plan B of sorts, we can try our best to choose the indicator that works in the given environment. And I think your choice is right on in this regard.
There is another, quite similar "indicator" where it shows how many components in DOW are above (or bellow) 50 day. That is also an outstanding insight to map the market strength.
It is just me, but if I were you I would not use the other indicators as they clearly show far less foretelling efficiency, except those bellow.
It's worth to make the observation that in the last period, December to be more exact, the HLP dipped hugely bellow line in sand bottom level, all the way down to -12.5
I think this is a weakness sign, a reflection of DOW (market?) uptrend weakness in its structure.
PMOBUYSPX also seems valuable enough to have on chart.
NYMO is known good market turn indicator. I prefer weekly, it seems clearer, less noise.
Great work
Thanks for sharing
> here's one thing from me I found valuable (but I use it less nowadays), instead of BB try SMA Envelopes. You must tweak around with it. I would tell you my settings, but I customized them for some stocks and most got deleted, so I don't have it on DOW or SPX, never had. While BB has an unique way to tell you of an upcoming move, the Envelopes are by far better than BB, hands down - but you must find the right settings for a given stock, and shun it when it stops working. I even used multiple envelopes, clutter, yes, but looking at the envelopes was crystal clear what's coming (bottom, or foresee the end of run/correction).
The price, when envelopes do work, go like a ping-pong ball inside them, it's amazing. It failed on oil and major indexes moves if I remember correctly, but in normal market conditions (like now) it works. Almost like your HLP, (better IMO) it basically measure the fluctuation of maximization AROUND the moves, so (ideally) it gives you both the upper and lower limits.
I found I need more than one if I want to catch more.
Example: settings of 50,5,5 (I preferred a bit lower than 50) will quantify and reveal maximization(exhaustion) of moves around that average in 5% percentages, but visual just a line (lines actually) on the screen, easy to evaluate.
(also 50,10,10 ; 50,12,12 etc TOGETHER. For ST use a much small nr you'll need to find, and that ST envelope will snake its way inside larger envelopes)
I thought I stroke gold when I first came about it. But after seeing it is NOT a general indicator (i.e. like MACD or BB), but one that needs to be customized and maintained, I slowly stopped using it and even took it off most if not all my charts, as I made visual room for new work.
I am of opinion that indicators can and are manipulated for interests. Therefore I made some work on trading WITHOUT ANY indicators. I succeeded. It is actually fascinating when you take all off and watch just candlesticks. But since I realize the traders, most if not all, are using indicators, I had to come back and re-clutter my charts..
My primary indicator is Stochastics, but with "harsh" conditions as it's useless in some conditions, then MACD (a snake if wrongly handled), and ROC (just in some charts).
It is not that complicated. We shoot ourselves in the foot and make it complicated in our quest for perfection and improvement.
Thanks again
Here's one more interesting/cool thing about yesterday's my 0.10%-micro-system
When it doesn't pay (fail) , the market tends to either sell or not rally much.
Yesterday this aspect did not work as the micro-system worked yet the market sold off. So this aspect that can be used as an indicator if you will, doesn't work all the time but majority of times does work, and indicates who prevails buying or selling for the given day. It's a cool addition to people daytrading.
I concluded that this indicator of this micro-system should work all the time (100% that is).
In cases where it fails, like yesterday, I found it means bulls have been somehow fooled and trapped, or at least ST bulls (or daytrading bulls). This means in return that those traders will not be bullish for the given day, with the resulting consequences.
While writing this I notice the premarket has bid. This typically means this is how will be played today. They can selloff (hopefully to my entry desirable point), but the "monkey/machine" is trying to bid the market.
It's very clear to me what to do.
In fact each day. But most of the days I do nothing, no trading that is (i.e. yesterday) as I chose my own trades.
Not doing nothing means I do other stuff, and also like now enables me to buy better if so I want, which IS a gain.
So remember, do-nothing IS TRADING !
When the market shows me risk elevated (I try not to gamble my capital) or not going where I want it to, or , yeah, signals confused (very very rare if you are experienced), then this do nothing happens.
I never actually plan to do nothing, why would I.
Today I have it clear for my style.
There are few "ifs" of course, they always are, omnipresent. I'll talk about one, the one more at hand.
If the market drops about another point from this so called "red", then I'll bite and buy calls. Yes it can go even lower, I realize that, but at that point the risk is more manageable. Oh, and better make it fast or I change my demands to even lower price - it's their (algos or whatever) call
Here's the mastermind behind the algos that scare many traders:
Do you have an explanatory of what you want us to see in your "Renko" chart?
(an old number post maybe? a link? - preferable if you say few words instead though)
2) why your candlesticks are not uniform blocks like what is shown in the "Reiko" explanatory page of StockCharts ?
We can even see the fake thick to 212, while on that page are no ticks just bodies, and all uniform.
Also, your candlesticks are not complete equidistant at 45° angle, so why's that?
3) what size did you set per each new-candle move ?
4) what's the story with the MAs from 3 one by one to 12 ?
(the one by one is rather intriguing of its usefulness)
Share what you can
Thanks
that's a good strategy I myself employ sometimes
You did things right as MM is concerned
Also 5% down for SPY to initiate a buy is also sound thinking
selling controlled, no waterfall (outlawed by fed)
No flashing either
What the fed didn't get is that the market STILL can waterfall, but will do so when it can't be stopped ...
It's unnerving waiting for the avalanche
Instead, the closest they can do is gap it down..
..and of course will be bought back up at least half way
I'll take a gap down if they are not too scared to offer what can I say
I'm patient either way
Edit: I think I sense a bottoming of the intraday range. In that case I guess we should be satisfied if it close near the lows.
Last hour approaching and buy programs may be launched for tom setup.
But I won't commit to a MT long trade even if I'd have to buy higher, no sir. I wait for strength. Kudos to heroes stepping ahead of the market.
re:Buffett: I consider myself a novice, an amateur trader
(professionals are only paid traders, OPM funds managers)
Well, then naturally I expect "professional stuff" from professionals.
Buffett is considered not only a pro but an outstanding one, thus I apply (we should) higher expectations and standards from someone like him.
I saw him making some HORRIBLE trading decisions vs mine.
At that point I stopped venerating him, I understood he's not good, but has money to make it right, just like GS/fed is doing...
So of course he buys when others sell, he has the pocket to average down (and/or ask for money).
BTW I never heard him admitting on his rather monstrous trading mistakes (I think he lost like 10 billion paper trade at the time but not too sure)
On the other hand, I see some technicians that also manage funds, coming on TV and admitting to fullish trades or mistaken analysis.
Those I admire, they are the real deal, they are true professionals.
the selling is controlled, not panic
It looks to me they reserved a green day for tomorrow to get in call buyers (call buyers that were punished severely 2 month in a row AND on Santa!).
Question is how will it be done. If the drop it hard today, even intraday, then tomorrow will be a manic rally.
If they don't drop it hard, then there is room for red tomorrow which can be played in 2 ways:
1. gap/run down and then rally madly
2. modest green day
If option 2 is used, then we may be looking at a 3rd month of calls buyers fail.
FWIW SPY and DIA are stronger than the rest of the market.
This is not that bullish. You need IWM and QQQ to be stronger for a bullish case. They have been stronger but now the leadership is in (run to safety) DIA and SPY hands.
So we're looking at more weakness to come.
If it gaps down and hard IMO it's a good buying op for ST.
Still weak, so , that's the (my) trading plan.
Oil:
They pulled that nasty +5% back to back to back. I was told to buy. No way man, I said, let it SHOW me some strength first. That stunt was short cover/profit, which has that signature to it.
Sure thing the oil is weak again (AFTER being +5% up).
Was it the bottom? Donno, sincerely. You can't even trust charts with the ferocity of selling in there. We have to let it calm a bit, then charts. I (we) have to watch it now.
You buy a double or a triple on that oil when it bottoms and you can rise your capital fantastically. Big percentage gain from bottom!!!
It is THE thing to watch. IT CAN DOUBLE YOUR CAPITAL.
Something SPY can't pull off anymore now.
What to do guidance: pretty simple, but volatile!!!!!
(IMO)
I don't have to tell you just how volatile this market has been recently. This is not bad but GREAT. Just look in the intraday charts and see just how many could've would've should've trades were there, and great ones too !!!
BUT
But the volatility has one major problem, it is FAST. It means it scares us a lot of times, makes us feel inadequate, especially when you had some bad trades where you lost some money.
Because the speed it is difficult to say do this do that, as many times by the time you analyzed something, the opportunity went away, let alone taking time to post stuff..
Rule of thumb, trade intraday much like a daytrader (for who can!), but confine to stronger signals for positions to hold - this takes us to option number 3 you did not think of -> DO NOTHING (for holding-grade positions).
I DO NOTHING !
I can't short as the trend is up (and don't want to suffer fed/bull(ying), and I can't buy as the momentum is weak and rather negative (see the drops...).
I am not confused about daytrading at all, but that is risky (risk = higher pay odds, but still.. .risky).
I used to daytrade but now I take it easier (after some nasty adventures...). I only use daytrading for micro-management or best clearest opps.
I see a good opp to buy (intraday at least) if the market drops to bellow SPY 198 (pref 197 or near, but 198 is good too)
This may be as a waterfall !!!
It means scary.
If the opp doesn't present, then I'll sit on the money for next opp or bottoming.
SITTING AND WAITING IS AN OPTION FOR TRADING hardly used
I learned it the hard way !
Hi L-Back, you're very welcome.
Together we stand a better chance than alone to get better at trading. There are many things that can be said. I learned that even from irrational traders there is something to be scooped and used, so much more so from serious traders.
I know for a fact that all of us have something good, even if that is not yet revealed in all cases.
Welcome (back?) to the board
jeff show integrity and respect and honor and answer the questions!
Why the need for sarcasm? What in all that offended you?
----------------------------------
Those questions you dodged of course..
Do NOT state the obvious!
OBVIOUSLY there are books on trading. Do you consider yourself an expert?
I don't! I'm smart and experienced enough to know I am not an expert. I put some of my expertise in my comments, that's all, and that's what we're supposed to do, share some of what we know.
I red few books, some I bought (expensive too) and hardly glanced in them. I respect all authors. Unlike you, I would never disrespect an author and tell him "there are books already yada yada yada".
Everyone has something that can offer !
As an example, I learned some outstanding stuff from literally boring books. I doubt very much many red those books, they were that bad. And because of that I know for a fact that those few special things I got from them are unique knowledge to people like me that managed to finish those painfully boring books.
I will only share that those thing I learned are about behind curtain order management, with an outstanding insight of off the market orders.
Since you are unnecessarily smug, why don't you enlighten us and share with us a system of your choice that pays 90% of the times !!!
Because this is what I did , and that offended you, apparently !
Go figure.
You can not decide for what OTHER people here need or want, especially when it comes to trading! So don't speak in other peoples' name in this regard. You are not "we", you're just you.
Just so you know I can absolutely write a book. My OWN stuff! Can it be successful, a hit? I donno. My son told me few times to try. So far I refused the idea. Maybe one day when I will be old, MAYBE then I'll think about it. One thing is sure, it will not be a thick book, but a fascinating one regardless. Moro or less just like a book written by an indian poor woman that made it to riches.
Some here shared some of their stuff and is great, that's all it is pal. If I disagree or do not like something, I will not use any of that advice or stuff (and happens on a daily basis), but I am not posting smugness to that kind person. I am thankful for people taking their time to participate.
Grow up and abide by the rules of the board and be civil and show respect to all.
If you don't like it then don't use my stuff, do the opposite or whatever, but don't get personal!
You can also ignore all or some of my posts, my advices and guidance, you know!
We are here to share what we can to be better traders and make some money and feel good.
Please stay on topic and be civil and respectful to us all.
why the sarcasm? Huh jeff?
It worked !!!
AGAIN
Like I said -> 90% success rate IMO
That's the thing! That's the most important thing.
If you buy the open you have a nearly guaranteed 0.10% profit !
It works IMO 90% of the times (I never sat down to crunch the numbers but it's up there).
You can use it as a system if you like. DAILY, day in and day out, day after day after day after day after day, you get the point. Those 0.10 will grow exponentially.
Even on a daily basis for 100k is a quick profit of $100..
The catch are 2:
1) you MUST get to buy the very open (or bellow it, which is better,)
2) You must fold at 0.10% (I say 0.09% seems better), or if you are greedy or feel market offers more, then use a ST system of your own to know when to fold.
But I advise against it, as this system works only if you are truly disciplined and just take the 0.10% (0.09)
(If I remember there is a -0.20% where you must decide to either put a stop there or average down with a tight stop under both positions)
For those who wonder, yes, I did trade it and made some money, but it's not my thing, so I just contemplate it now and then for amusement (although money is serious stuff).
The market did NOT open yet, so you have a chance to see it for yourself LIVE !
And feel free to watch it for few days to see just how well this system works.
Even if you're taken out on a stop here and there, the WINNINGS FAR OUTNUMBER the losses.
I find it fun to watch this thing.
I thought I'd share the fun with you. Be free and welcome to make money with it.
Oh, of course it can be improved. Say for example the futures are down and you see they creep up -> buy the dam thing in premarket as it will be a far better entry than the open most of the time.
Final thought -> DO NOT trade this with options, ONLY WITH THE ETF ITSELF !
Trader-Thoughts: futures're were up +1% then down -1%
This creates a psychological set limit on those two sides:
So if the market sells off about -1% buyers should show up and shorts should cover, and vice-versa if the market rallies, the buyers will bail and shorts will short at about +1%...
I think profits were already taken on both sides for AH (futures) market, and now is a game of wait-and-see.
This can be seen in a resulted flat/near unchanged market AFTER SUCH A HIGH VOLATILITY.
No one wants to commit. Lots of gamblers want to wait for some guidance, especially with those two targets there !!!
So it is a fair possibility that the market will range between the two targets just to frustrate traders some more. I'd say ranging around +/- 0.25 to 0.5% would do it...
I'll be watching the charts for developments
ignore the noise, be patient and calm
this is a great time to watch and keep an eye on my "home-runs" chart.
Let me guide you more as a quick update on its read at the moment , here, as I don't want to clutter that beautiful chart too much.
as per the chart -> THIS IS A BUY ZONE !!!
That being said, I see that the zone is being tagged few times in short order. As this is supposed to be quite bouncy, since price reverts to it too fast, this means the sellers want to press lower.
But even so, buyers here WILL be bailed out (sorry for the fed's F word, "bailing")
The next level on the chart is quite clear now isn't it!
It is just above December lows. I'd say 190-ish.
In light of above analysis (and other), I'd say odds to get there are pretty decent.
Now if the SPY does get there, I assume it will be with a lot of induced panic and bearish commentaries and media incessant bearish baloney.
IGNORE THE CROOKS !
DO NOT BE AFRAID !
Instead, BUY BUY BUY that zone as the chart clearly advise you.
(also, cover any shorts)
IF, that's a big if, the price breaks bellow that channel in a certain manner, or worse, linger on its bottom and then breaks under, then it will be a nasty bearish move to downside. But buyers there WILL have a chance to get at break even, so it's a very low risk area to buy with high odds (100% for past 4 years and counting) for juicy profit on long positions (hail the fed printing).
Remember, in these zones indicators MUST be ignored !
Call it "insanity buying" style...
You'll be way ahead of the crowd. Chart tells you that!
So this is the chart/market update folks. Take it and run with it.
Trade well
Volatility grew which is good for us traders!
For those having an issue with volatility, I remind them that it is a boring or grinding market that we hate.
The only bad thing about this is that increases cost of options.
My charts showed me that today's move odds were quite high, so here we are. What I didn't see was the magnitude. I think the (extra) magnitude has to do with short abusing and stop running.
While for some inexplicable mistake I was off last week about OEX time, the observations in that post were correct. Those explanations regarding pain of OEX applied nearly fully in that day (regardless of my timing mistake) and apply 110% now (now is actually OEX week, I hope I got the timing right this time LOL).
What I sense is that they don't really want to pay on calls. No santa either is another tell. So this implies the "market" will make sure the calls go down 100%, while puts get wounded badly and paid as little as possible. It implies the upper limit (warning calls!) is at most about a quarter to a half point above today's high - this is not pure orthodox charting but it didn't stop it before to be correct, and we shall see now don't we how it'll do this time again.
Trend is UP so don't forget that, and today's madness buying while the market was NOT oversold, is a testimony of it.
Also, as per my poster "Home-run" chart the SPY dipped in the juicy buy zone , you know, the one it says to you blindly buy disregarding ALL indicators (!) for a 100% sure win, and it again paid handsomely for whoever cared to follow.
That chart is painfully clear, even Stevie Wonder could follow.
Trade well
Not possible for the time being. I changed brokers once in a while, I even was changed by them once. That was a most horrible experience I had, they even had money missing during switchover and demanded from me proof I had it, ugh. Now I'm with a broker I get along ok-ish. They don't have this naked option, but it's ok, not end of the world.
If you know to dance (trade well/skilled work) you will dance even on a crocked floor (less than perfect conditions/tool, even with handicaps and/or sabotages) - a right on the money ME proverb.
This proverb is applicable each time someone passing as a skilled pro, blames this, that, and the other, but himself for not doing a good job. We witness it happening all the time in our lives.
Take for example trying to trade off a cellular, it's hard, cumbersome, you're handicapped from all sides. But if you make your homework and know what you want to do, then it can work, however lame that way is.
Nothing is perfect. Everything has a sucky side. Even StockCharts has some quite nasty side like disgusting customer service, but most importantly recently they started screwing with the closeses of the days. For years it was done the second the market closed, very professional. Then they "allowed" about a couple of minutes which I found VERY fishy. But most recently they deteriorated further, and for a while now they let the close fluctuate HOURS according to every single freaking trade of AH.
This is outright horrible for a chartist. And they still promote themselves as being "the best" charting service?
I don't think so.
I have no proof but from my end I suspect them making some sort of agreement (conspiracy) with MM-kers to undermine the traders even though we're paying customers. Like I said, I can't prove anything, as I have no proof, but I have no other explanation, and they won't offer any or not credible either, so..
I've been with them for a very long time and like some of their stuff while missing other stuff, so I got used to them and while I won't buy their BS being the best, I think they are in the best group.
It feels quite a special satisfaction to beat "them", the market that is, while they try hard to handicap you.
I'm thinking now and then to switch to IB, or just open an acc there, but I found some issues with them too, so I postpone all the time.
For the rest of you that do have ability to sell naked shorts/calls THAT should be used to sell the opposite, instead of buying options from these MM crooks.
If one looks at the metrics it might even surpass the futures trading where flat market gives you nothing but time lost.
But just like with any other trading vehicle, timing is essential with options, and outright critical with selling naked as the risk exposure is unlimited (until expiration).
be serious with "secret formula"
!!!!! use common sense people !!!!!
If a guy, (any guy!) has a machine (sure formula) to make anyone including himself millions of dollars
...then why would he bother for you to give him (to "charity") your hard earned money ?????
It is plain common sense he has nothing or close to nothing.
But on the other hand, money from traders that get suckered , that is sure money in the bank -> for him !!
That CAN add up for him to become a millionaire !
Do you really want to make him a millionaire with YOUR money?
If you do get suckered you are NOT a trader, but a puppet in search of a puppeteer and ready to make him wealthier for a pie in the sky that defies any rationale.
Secrets come from talent and hard work and experience. I do have some true secrets or so I am foolish enough to believe, given that today I saw one of them publicized in an article, albeit about 60% of it only of what I have, but enough to disturb me.
And I will not ask for money for my stuff, and I'm saying this now when I'm not millionaire , so you can imagine if I have more money I would give it away for a fistful of few hundreds? NO WAY!
If a guy has truly a formula for cash making and want to help a charity he will generate plenty with his money making scheme.
BUT HE CAN NOT !!!
Instead, I will give you a tip and FREE/GRATIS -> There is only one main thing worthy of attention, and that is selling instead of buying. There is an advantage for selling options vs buying because the decay works in YOUR favor. So for example if you think buying calls , you would be much better off selling (naked) puts as you will have not one but two things working for you, the direction and decay. And if the market goes sideways boring , no direction, you still make money because the decay allows you to buy (cover) those options much cheaper if not at zero !
And I don't need to be paid for telling this.
(I buy calls instead of selling puts because my broker doesn't let me to sell naked, but I would)
Do yourself a big favor and ignore the BS and the BSer/s
(I could say more as there are few more untouched points, and make a very very long post but I have real stuff to do and I said sufficient I think)
Trade well people
Even broken clocks are right 2x a day
I think this is one of those times the bearish camp get its turn to be right.
Like I said before, I judge doji in my own way and IMO is the only correct way.
Each case is DIFFERENT, no doji is like another, it all depends on lots of things in the contest. In this case what I see is the location of the doji. It closed just slightly so at or under prior candle.
This is truly bearish IMO, and to add to that you have PSAR on weekly starting a dot on top of the market...
You can add also if you will that the doji could not muster a penny above open...
I'm not bear and still have some calls, but we have to be realistic here.
It seems bears will be given a break this time, so be prepared for lots of growling. It could however start green on monday and then sour as wo progress into next week.
I think percentage G/L is misleading if referred to option unit itself
(if it's G/L vs capital invested, then it's the real thing)
Here's the why (technical mambo):
In one word it's delta. An OTM will be cheaper than an ITM
OTM (cost) has only premium, while ITM has value PLUS premium.
Because OTM has only premium, it is very cheap, and because is very cheap, any deviation (G/L) will be seen as HUGE % percentage, vs the ITM which is more "expensive" and where any deviation (G/L) will be seen as much smaller % percentage.
Example: 5¢ gain on a 10¢ option will be seen as 50% gain
while same 5¢ on a $1.oo option will be perceived as just 5%.
This explains the perception of 50% gain.
Real Value:
In reality both options move in close relation to underlying (say SPY), so if SPY moved 1$ an ITM will rise about $0.70 PER OPTION, while an OTM will rise WAY WAY less, pennies.
To make $700.oo profit (SPY moved $1) you CAN with 10 ITM options, but you will have to buy few times more options if they are OTM as they pay pennies per option.
So the cheap ones look that they make gazillion % percentage, looks glamorous, but for the bottom line it comes down to how much money is on the line, as what really matters is what capital that was invested, to obtain the same $ profit result nominal in the end.
So if I put 1000 down to buy options, if I'll buy cheap ones my 1000 will buy more units (and some pay more commission), but if I buy ITM ones, more expensive, my 1000 will buy much fewer, but because they yield different G/L in the end the dif in G/L dollars tends to be the same.
It's simple technicality and mathematics. All I said can be easily verified.
(they also have books on this)
Personally I prefer ITM because they make me feel like I have virtual shares, as they tend to follow the G/L most closely.
(I admit I don't know many things, so naturally I am open to learn new things)
While no one should scoff at terrorists, Market doesn't care.
I bought calls on this gift/dip. I saw no technical reason not to.
I won't lie, I didn't buy the bottom, but about half point from it. Unnerving for me to be undercut like that, but no one can get those darn lows to a T, you gotta make a call.
Why unnerving - I do my homework, and when price deviates too much from my estimate it's almost never a good thing. So I have to be careful.
I'm holding my calls
There still hope (yes it's an F word here) that will go further up and I will exit at some unforgiving resistance the conductors will decide on.
The primary reason for the dip is the elephant in the room - the options. The market came very near minimum-pain zone where no one get paid. (my home made min-pain stuff, not from site/s)
Now that that would be out of MM hair, they can move it where they really want - usually trapping traders, you know, the game, it goes on...
The options also prevents the market to plunge even more, as that would pay to put holders. So we are in range for the reminder of the day.
The technical problem is that if they f-around too much the wrong way, it may evolve into a sell signal and I'd have to scramble to sell my calls, which I don't want to.
Typically when there is a rally-ish period prior to OEX, and then on OEX (today) they sell maniacally and put in charts a solid red candle, then the forward period to next OEX , basically next 4 weeks, they would selloff, so puts would be paid. I don't know the mechanics but this what happened few times before.
It doesn't mean monday, tuesday etc. will be red, but traders should be selloff mindset oriented I'd say, taking each green day with a big spoon of salt..
Let's watch this month forward and will see if it fits such prior patterns. BUT, just like today, they CAN jack it up just before expiration!
They have no morals. It should be expected I guess.
I like most don't have PM privileges. Would be nice to have a small quota of them, but it's ok, IHub is great as it is.
I noticed some people can tell who has what.
Doll, if you are great at target entry/exit, that's a hair step away from good timing. I would say is almost just semantics.
My (pros' also) weakness is longer term forecast. I suck. But if a formation happens to be bigger and see it, LT, then yeah, I'm fine.
I saw the plunge of 2008, but did NOT see the severity. I survived but got scratches. I failed miserably to see the bottom of 2009 and the ensuing bull market. The pros used media to peddle scary comments constantly, like BS "secular Bear" , economy bad (prolly the only truth) , and scared traders away from the raging one-way bull market, so only them profit from the bottom.
I hope all the time I spent if they ever pull that again (I think they will) I will be prepared.
I will trade futures when my broker will have them. I'm not ("that") scared of the market.
The fed trapped themselves into a corner and they will never be able to get out of it, they have to be in forever from what I understand. So we know which side of the market we need to be
are you trading futures Doll?
Only/Often/rarely/Never?
Options unique advantage: knowing exactly your max loss (usually modest). No other trading vehicle that I know of has that.
But you have to pay something to the devil (market) for that unique privilege: Time decay
BUT
if you are a good timer you win and win big, while you CAN sleep at night with options
I think trading futures, while you can hold with no time decay, if they turn on you there goes the sleep and sex drive and trading account, no?
I guess if you put stops properly you may be ok , probably..
(too bad I guess that trade -100% will dramatically lower his average. I would never touch deep OTM options so close to expiration, just an unnecessary adverse technicality no one should add to an already difficult landscape. I was amazed the MM put such high value today on them, wow)
range of day has been set-> trade away
it MAY go more a bit, but it ain't gonna be much larger
I watch the tape and the selling , whoever is doing it, is ferocious
meh
not impressed yet
they have to try harder
MUCH harder
yawn or is it yuan
LOL
until that high, 205 is ST resistance
Not a bad place to exit and contemplate the charts with a glass a wine.
Unless like in a prosperous company case, I do NOT see why an index stock "must" do something like going to highs other than the government pumping stolen money in it.
But the odds are clear (and fed reaffirmed reckless policy) that highs will be challenged AND new highs will come. Until those odds change this is what it is.
From a trading perspective it's a totally different story. 205 is the next resistance provided markets don't sell some more (but even then), then highs or new formed resistances. On those resistance points a trader better exit and wait for the market to guide his hand, who knows, maybe volatility bring in some better prices for reloads.
There is one fundamental hurdle, I even don't understand half of it -> Greek drama (one can also rightfully so add also the oil)
This can make for a volatile (great for traders) market, and may postpone the highs for a longer period..