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another day, another nearly +4% in oil !!!
imagine just how much MUCH MORE profit is trading this with those calls
the move is TEN TIMES MORE than the SPY !!!
I told you so
thanks ced.
Also see the correlation oil-market started to become apparent (oil down -1% from highs, market up +1% from lows) it reveals big money are going in - in oil longs (and probably selling the lipstick pig components of market ?)
not bad place or time to buy calls
the risk was lowered by the profit taking in AAPL and GOOG I guess
I can't be cool about it since I have a deep underwater oil position specifically taken to jinx the high oil (far from top but still very red). I need to fish the bottom, that's the whole game from my side.
But truth is that in fact I have been cool for a VERY long time, for all this mega-slide/crash, you must give me that, few could hold off buying like I did.
But now it's the time to start buying Oil or we are darn close to it.
I also sense a freaking +2% rise upcoming in these markets. Don't know about after that but this feel is getting pretty intense the way they build the market.
My only problem is volatility saying don't, otherway I would've bought calls already as there were few good chances. It drives me nervous as I feel they may pull a gap up in this imperfect setup.
This is exacerbated by the fact that I missed yesterday's lows (my mistake).
I'll drink more coffee I guess and suck it in like always in such cases.
But I do have my eyes on oil, no mistake here. Monday at the latest I will put money on it. (playing the doubles too)
don't believe paid corrupt propaganda - oil bottomed or is almost there.
If you don't believe me keep watching it FROM HERE ON.
Just like the market rise on BS numbers, oil will rise.
I think one major reason could be the dollar got too strong and traders there forecast a correction which will push the commodities (OIL !!!) higher !
I understand many chicken out to buy oil after +7% rise (just +4.5% when I was writing the other post...), but when you look at the +25% remaining potential (if not more) then who cares.
oops - by the time I finished this post oil is up +8%
and the day is not over
...and this is a weekly and monthly day for charts too !!!!!
OIL allert (money for you)
Oil is up big today, but this time is diferent.
Also it's up against stiffest of ST resistance.
If it breaks it , then it can shoot V bottom style FROM HERE ANOTHER +25% like nothing
I hope since it's the first try it fails so I can load a lil lower.
Anyone thinks that could be constructed as a negative for the market by the propaganda machine ? (rise of oil)
Me thinks today's move shows big money , or smart money, is behind this move this time. They are going in. When they do prices move grande and hit resistances.
(Trade USO or UCO for a double)
people see it but they don't see it
I can't figure it out why since it's so clear cut case.
Doji is MEANINGLESS it's basically a ZERO.
It's indecision. All agree on it. it's like an undecided vote, why counting it, you can't, it won't benefit either side. Then why would the same people that with the same mouth say is undecided, then go around and say it means xyz.
It's absolutely ridiculous.
There are about 2 or 3 cases where doji does means and means a lot. One case is when it's by itself - price gaps, THEN makes a doji, THEN gaps back. THAT is powerful. But inside regular moves like we have it is NOTHING. There is proof for this in many places. I take the doji WITH the rest of the candles, NOT by itself, NEVER. And it works 100% because this is how it is.
Of course case can be made that indecision means in this case the market topped, but doji on its own don't herald that , it would be absurdly simple. Also "market has topped" is NOT the only possible explanation, so why cherry pick an explanation when we desperately need true understanding.
This December doji in question at the time meant nothing, just like I have been saying. And we did see the market REFUSING to drop. However, in light of a considerable January down, then the picture begins to give that doji some bearish power. To trully make it bearish January must close under doji, basically under December lows, and we see how hard PPT works to prevent just that.
An even daily close under that December low will be strongly bearish. It will violate to downside the triangle formed since.
It makes sense to top around here since the oil is about to bottom. I suspect they will V bottom the oil to prevent people from participating.
They will rotate into oil, a grossly corrected prime commodity.
One problem with this theory - Fed money. If Fed throws extra truckloads of printed dollars, then will be enough money for both, the market and the oil.
So the Fed is the wild card for a market top any way we look at it.
it's a very imperfect setup to buy long
but it's a long nevertheless
I wait for one more thing to fall in place and I'll ignore the negativity (charts, not officials' lies) and buy some calls.
But either the pig drops (hard when they have AMZN and GOOG pumped with fed money), or the market strengthen one more bit.
Let's not forget this is the DO the month window dressing. Normally there is no much window dressing on a monthly basis, but this is January and they might want to show it's green as a good omen for the year to help with propaganda machine.
Disregard IWM being down because it was way too high, so it needed its own correction. Instead have the eyes on IWM and QQQ as to get the real picture, and as you can see QQQ is quite strong. If you combine the two you get about half point in red, EXACTLY what the DIA and SPY do, so there, how's that for validation of real picture.
So be prepared to BUY this lipsticked pig. Almost surely I'll buy some calls, almost because typically I hate to buy options on Friday and lose money because weekend erodes it.
I fully agree with whoever said it won't hold if this keeps going like this. (bouncing support with no higher high)
IT WILL NOT indeed, and the price (market in this case) will collapse with a vengeance !!!
But, myself I can go further and I can offer the true explanation behind the situation, of why.
(again we must totally ignore the media propaganda machine)
Here's why, in two words, and two cases:
1) DEAD MONEY ; 2) crowded (on) clarity
So, if the market is stagnant in small range bumping too many times off a support but no going higher:
1) if the market goes nowhere, the big money will HAVE TO go away to other places to show gains and performance - this will mean they sell. If big money start to peal off then of course it will collapse.
2) the market will become VERY clear to trade, very clear support and resistance. This will invite a growing crowd. When the weight is too big will collapse. ..... see the oil chart for a poster example in this case/s.
Range for a long while as explained , and then BAM , down -60% fire-sale ...
ignore the propaganda machine (GDP numbers, media)
They are meaningless. Bad numbers (if ever true!) are perceived or not as they please.
Chart always matters as it shows us what they actually do.
I am looking to buy calls as previously stated. Not sure 100% but getting there.
I'm glad they "listened" and gap it down. Problem is they don't gap it down enough. So I'll have to wait a little to see development.
New thing always pop up and you have to stay alert
They ramped it up yesterday to bail their friends from trapped long bets on FOMC day.
You won't hear that on CNBC though...
Wanka, Short Term
sorry to say the 'F' word, but this is going 'UP'
There are so many things to consider, yours also. In the end it's a consensus of most influential of them which pull the market up or down.
I don't say up lightly and I am ready to put money on that and will.
Now how much up, oh ho ho, that's a totally different thing and there is no way to tell ST, not me anyway. I just take the ques and try to make a dollar like all of us I guess.
-----
Now I'll say what I see in these candles, today especially. Today candle is VERY bullish (regardless of name). It went much lower than yesterday, then closed well inside the long yesterday sell candle, almost half, AND made a long tail in the proccess.
This my friend, makes the yesterday close an automatic ST support (I hope the crooks gap it down there so I can load calls on the spot).
From December to now has been FOUR bounces off the area 197-200-ish. 4 is a strong number when it comes to this. The only bearish thing, and I'd say quite bearish, is each bounce had a lower high. This means less energy. The rules say this should run out of bouncing power, and either it should crush through support (Fed won't like it!) or go sideways on suport itself and then crush.
If the lipsticked pig finds energy to make a higher high on this bounce, or next (if any), then this bearish point will go away.
From looking at the charts I see the manipulators took the market higher to save the underwater positions of their colleagues in crimes that took long bets at FOMC. Especially with the extra-spike in the AH.
I could also see half mil etc trades flying outside the market..
Shady affairs to the core.
Who cares they say, it's just fed's taxpayers' money..
good/bad depends on your position.
A good day for someone is a bad day for another.
I think will be bullish regardless of what's happening now or in the overnight futures.
We saw a rush to pump the market, like is some sort of a national duty, so I see chances are 100% for a bullish day tomorrow.
Bullish doesn't mean necessarily green only, it means we could have a repeat of today, red then green as well, or gap up and selloff then rally again (whipsaw).
So it seems a good day for you since you are on the long side.
I am looking forward to buy some calls, make up for the time lost today if possible.
tomorrow is both EOW and EOM so a very good day efficiently-wise to manipulate the markets !
2 birds with one (pumping) stone!
Get ready !
it's not just the calls, it's all options
all across the board
I checked options on VXX for some efficiency matters and saw puts were screwed just the same (even more)
The writers just don't want to pay! Thick skimming off profits rightfully owned by people I believe is a crime in the law books.
But I don't expect any rush from officials. They are all in on it, otherwise this act would not take place.
It's not "smart" nor "too smart", it's that they are not oversight by any regulatory officials, too corrupted probably and too busy to count their cut.
Me thinks, trading outright VXX will cost 10x (probably less) more capital, ok, but no expiration to worry about, and will also take care of this ongoing "crooked options writers" skimming off problem.
The liquidity is also outstanding, nothing like options.
I'm seriously looking into it.
hmm, they hugely underpaid calls by hefty -30%
UNDERpaid !!!
so if you were to make according to metrics a profit of $1,000 the crooks only paid $700
It stinks
I am not involved as I missed the lows today which I wanted to buy but checked it out for my edification and just saw this dirty play they pulled on traders.
I guess the criminals figured why paying fully, the fools will be happy to see any profit...
So whoever made money on calls good for them but they got ripped off today as they should've been paid 30% more at the time of cashing out.
Having said that, unfortunately I have no choice but fall in line and buy options from these unscrupulous crooks just like the rest of the sheeple.
beheheheee
I guess they are from the "too big to jail" kind
Just ignore the noise and the media.
I inspected some of the troops and the reason I see for strength (or lackluster weakness rather, whichever way you like to put it) is that many main components are in fact in strong chart status. While the indexes dropped it did not affect some main players.
CSCO INTC DIA and RUT among others, are quite bullish.
Having said that, I stick by my valuation that says the market is just too much up.
I think some rotation will occur and those strong ones will be "rotated" ...under the bus pretty soon, while others with more decent valuation will replace them to get the gravy train going.
traders have been trained to expect 'V' bottoming
we witness this expectation
+1% non-stop rally off the lows so far, while it was slow moving for a while making it seems like sideways
I'm very disciplined, I wait for my points to enter or exit, no excited
TIME is a critical factor in trade and charting,
right along the price (volume is after that in importance)
Things do keep developing as we go even if the market is not much changed.
So,
What do we have here. As time passes averages converge, and psychological factors get ushered in.
I'll point out two things: 1) the market does NOT want to give back the LOSSes of yesterday. It just consolidates the losses!
As a sidekick , NO 'V' bottoming, the darling of this market either.
2) On the other hand, (smart) shorts are spooked by little changed market, it reeks of danger.
The EOD action should shed some light on what the market would think doing going forward.
The trend is up and it is almost a guaranteed that ETF buyers will be seeing a profit no matter where they bought including the very top.
Options traders have timing issues to see profits but long is still the right side of the market FROM SUPPORT.
I'm thinking calls but missed the morning lows for a daytrade (my mistake). Now I have to see EOD how it works out for me to decide.
I don't see bottoming yet but I want to buy based on some support I suspect seeing (I hope is not wishful thinking).
I would hate to have to buy if it closes at lows, but if it does a good dip I"ll chance it.
the setting of stop is one critical key
(I have DD work on stops and still do now and then, but I don't do stops, it's just a tool used against me by the "market")
(after reading some technicalities stuff on the matter) I don't ever add upward unless in a dip (red still, so).
Averaging down I do though, I wish and do my best not to, but we can't escape it.
In an average down situation, personally I automatically close the lowest position when position 1 is zero (often closing all). If you look in the charts they'll show I am not the only one doing it.
One more thing, we have to be open mind. The market changes, they change programs and algos on us periodically. Nothing is static, so having a rigid system is asking for unusual pain and suffering.
To this extent, a while back I started to think out of box in a direction of a so called "irrational system", but did very limited work on it so far. It's interesting stuff even to think of it. The idea came to me watching people and posters doing irrational stuff (from where I was standing) and still ripping benefits. I guess we all witness others doing this and that which defies our own thinking and get frustrated if it worked, and we think they got lucky which is probably often the case.
"adds if down(red), AND adds if goes green?"
adding adding no matter the color?
I don't understand this strategy
something is missing
it can't be right
it's irrelevant if I have an iphone
I don't see why you would care
Two of my kids have iphones for the longest time, all models, newest etc
I have been NEVER impressed with them, and always pointed out the flaws. They are good phones, but that's it just good, nothing extraordinary. They still have iphones AND others, and this in spite of agreeing with the garbage I pointed out about iphones.
I do NOT use iphone BY CHOICE.
(my kids have iphones if I'd want one - I don't)
I do however have and use ipad, but mostly for playing games.
I do consider ipad better than the competition, while I believe slowly but surely the gap will close and the day will come when apple will give back market just like pre-Steve times. They already do, in spite of media paid propaganda to otherwise.
I know two people that sell cellphones in two separate businesses.
All euphoria over few iphones????? That's the economy??
Not to mention they are NOT made in US so no effect on actual economic/employment so important factor.
Also "expectations" are always manipulated and meaningless.
Why not taking this very example, shall we:
Apple reported earnings of $3.06 per share on revenue of $74.6 billion.
"Analysts" "expectations" :
1) earnings of $2.60 a share , revenue expected $67.69 billion.
2) earnings of $2.97 a share , revenue expected $74.27 billion.
If they chose the expectations 1) it's a "beat" of 17.6% E/Share , and 10.2% on revenue.
If they chose the expectations 2) it's a paltry beat of 3% E/Share , and a paltry 0.4% on revenue.
...GUESS what they chose from the two ... to suit their pumping and dumping!!!
Then what about those misses in the report (see bellow) ?
Let me guess, misses are fine.
What about the strong dollar being a problem? Did it solved overnight?
What about the market being superovervaluatedly expensive? Did this solved? NO NO and NO !!!
I think they use this as a reason to pump and dump !
----------------------------------------------------------
AAPL, Q1, Operating Metrics Released
01/27/2015 18:08 | Midnight Trader
06:08 PM EST, 01/27/2015 (MT Newswires) -- Company Name: APPLE INC
Quarter: FQ -2015 - Q1, 2014-12
Operating Metric
-------------------------------------
Revenue-CPUs-Total
- Actual: 6944.0, Est: 6811.7, Surprise 1.94%
Revenue-iPad and related products and services
- Actual: 8985.0, Est: 9566.7, Surprise -6.08%
Revenue-iPhone and related products and services
- Actual: 51182.0, Est: 42695.5, Surprise 19.88%
Revenue-iTunes Software and Services
- Actual: 4799.0, Est: 4878.7, Surprise -1.63%
Total Mac unit sales
- Actual: 5519.0, Est: 5433.9, Surprise 1.57%
Units sold- iPhone
- Actual: 74,468.0, Est: 64,107.3, Surprise 16.16%
Units sold-iPad
- Actual: 21419.0, Est: 21944.4, Surprise -2.39%
the market rallied 50% off the bottom
the trick is to have fished that said bottom
observation: IWM went to near unchanged. Then algos kicked in to keep it in red even if by a hair, so it will look "red" for the show.
So far that was the game.
Together with that the overall market also got (upward) limited , so I guess the algos are connected to the hip..
that's a problem with stops -> "stopped out"
Everybody hate these except the manipulators.
Your position would've worked well from what I saw, +35% if I'm not mistaken, which is a far cry from "lunch money at Subways"
I like to play what one could call "no condom" full fun , so no in-the-way protection -> but only when I know what I'm doing
I only use "stops" as waiting orders to manage entries and exits for profits, and even those I'm skittish to use as the manipulators cheated me out of some orders numerous times, sometimes to a fraction of the penny away, so there.
With options this is IMO the only way to have fun
No worries, you'll get'em next time
sold my calls +30%
(still have it apparently, daytrading that is, which I rarely do anymore)
pls note these were ITM options. It means if I wanted to show off (which I don't) I could say it was OTM options with .....+80% etc profit, which is BS as I explained in the past. So my "paltry" +30% is in fact solid gain*, very much following the real market move!
That's what ITM does for whoever is to lazy to do dd with a book.
I realize it can go more, potentially, but I like low hanging fruits
Now I can go back to doing some stuff
(*today trade was very small, yet it increased account by 0.5%)
INTC down about -5%, AMD up about +5%
outstanding divergence
(once I recall something like this between GE and HON)
you see only half of the picture
that is the "economy"
the other half:
US has unpayable debt !!!
So the Banksters ("the doc") has to continue with their doing to dilute the dollar so the debt will become less and less that way.
And this part of the picture has not been "healed"..
The disease is still there, even growing, (overspending, Greece, US all the same, include US in the PIIGS, will fit)
IWM is connected to QQQ (some level)
So I would keep an eye on BOTH for any guidance
too much divergence says one is very wrong, while no to little divergence validates the guidance
right now we have big divergence
Thanks for keeping an eye on things and posting about them
took a chance and bought some calls
(daytrading mentality stuff kicked in, I hope I still have it)
strong selling in a small unit of time
hoping for a bounce
oh, and that yellen insane rally , all gone at some point
superlow volume reveals pros are absent (or bits-selling)
(it also means no pump at EOD, all pros from the pump MIA)
the reason is the market is way WAY ahead of itself
a correction is in order to bring valuation near normal-expensive from now super-expensive
Russell shows the market is bullish especially the small potatoes traders and ma and pa
strong dollar allows rate increase!!! (AND QE !!!)
(the fools cant lower the rate any further anyway !)
Can even be a surprise increase to obliterate clarity in the markets , well except for the goons like GS and such that are spoon-fed all this inside detail..
So fasten your belts and don't be too complacent.
I expect lots of volatility (GOOD stuff).
I don't believe any of that
If China is to dethrone USD is only one way, replace it
And they can (and should) continue to export to US continuously, is not detrimental to their agenda but helping it.
The gold buying (accumulating) is working toward this goal.
It will not happen overnight but gradually.
Once US loses the reserve status it will be gone forever and US will be forced to leave within its means like the rest.
There's more - US will lose financial muscle to its military which will further deteriorate US importance in the world (see USSR after collapse, they were all of a sudden nobodies)
It is because this "gradualism" that none of us can foresee the timing of USD collapse, it's moving very very slow.
market is way WAY ahead of itself
Professionals , at least the smart ones, are getting cash
No professionals (should) put more money
This is the reason of the intraday weakness
Now the market is in the hands of the "fools" (public and small potatoes traders), so not much sustained power in those hands
On the other hand, I perceive an effort to not give back yesterday's gain. But since the market is expensive they will at some point.
1% above yesterday should cap this lipsticked pig
Outstanding prediction on ALL counts
It has been the 10 days, so I thought to check it out how I did on this call.
I did Not even used ANY indicators !!!!!
USDollar Post #127898
The precision is phenomenal !
1) The support predicted was 145 -> absolutely 100% correct ---> dipped barely just 25¢ bellow it !
2) +14% Gain -> absolutely (even more ---> +20%)
3) in 10 days -> exactly 10
FOURTEEN PERCENT !
So I proved with this that technicalities and the charts do work and work well, BUT only for those who are serious and learn thus knowing what to look for!
I wish it was true
hand holding
when you will learn to IGNORE "THE NEWS"
>>> there is only one outcome UP UP UP
it is all about technicalities 99.99% of the time
how about on fundamentals?
it is all about QE 199.99% of the time
(and they ALL only print print print no matter the skin color in the white house)
So....
...what direction you should be trading ?????
LLLOOONNNGGG and only that
Someone would point out 2008
To that person I say that is also a LONG play! You had to use technicalities to exit at market turn and reload at bottom!!
Then trade all day in and day out LONG
Sorry, but this is the reality
If you don't believe me go look in charts