Fully invested in secondary oils (100% long)
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ROFLMAO - Better yet: (XOM calls)&(MSFT puts)!
XOM March 60 calls "XOMCL" @ 1.45
Re: Futures contracts - Liquidity chart...
http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDbk_docs/Liquidity/FutLiq.html
Bradley turn dates - 3/11 and 3/29...
That's right folks! The most recent Bradley turn date was Friday, 3/11. The next one is not due until 3/29, so grab some oil stocks and enjoy the rocket ride!
IMHO it's "buying panic" (capitulation) time!
SPX wave 53333 MELT-UP starts Monday!...
IMHO (using quarterly chart):
wave 3 of the big bull market starting in 1982 (or 1932) ended late 2000...
wave 4 ended late 2003...
wave 51 ended early 2004...
wave 52 ended Aug/04...
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=spx
(using daily chart):
wave 531 ended 12/31/04...
wave 532 ended 1/24/05...
wave 5331 ended 2/15/05...
wave 5332 ended 2/22/05...
wave 53331 ended 3/07/05...
wave 53332 ended 3/11/05 (Friday)
wave 53333 "MELT-UP" starts when market opens on Monday!
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=djia&time=10&freq=2
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!d20,2][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La1...
blackcloud - yes! (see msg# 8774)
cloud - 'just an indication (not a guarantee)
peg - re: "perfect hit" I agree that it was a major intermediate-term bottom. The put/call ratio foretold it by jumping to 1.25 intraday. Also, the fact that their are no SMH shares available for shorting, means that the bears are short to the max (no more supply from that particular source).
The oil stocks are the market leaders, and most of them made nice gains.
cash - I'm already 100% in oil stocks... most were higher today (PRFN up 40%), but I will definitly buy same XOM calls next Friday if you still think I should.
What happened today? (I thought you said you were going to go long at the close)
cash - you were right - (bottomed near close)!
cash - Naz 2048.3 = possible double-bottom!
CBOE put/call ratio - 1.25 (EXTREMELY HIGH)!!!
(this includes both equity and index options)
Caution - put/call ratio - 1.15 and rising...
This usually happens before a big upturn!
RALLY TIME!!!
Peter - Any energy-related stock should do well!
arjunah - bid/ask spreads are also "zero sum" and nowadays commissions are very low! (unless you are using a "full-sevice" broker)
arjunah - Options with the highest "dollar volume" usually work best. Option trading is "zero sum" (exactly the same amount of money is gained as lost) and since 85% of options traders lose money, imagine how much the other 15% make!
cash - yes, XOM calls make great trades!
peter - PRFN and APXR
cash - IMO LOD is in... Heading higher!
toppcats - gold and oil are not investments...
gold and oil are no more investments than swiss francs and coffee! They are just commodities like cotton and orange juice to be purchased or sold.
Oil company stock on the other hand is a great investment, because you are not only hedging against inflation via their reserves increasing in price; but you are also participating in their new discoveries to increase those reserves, and the income from refining and marketing of gasoline, motor oil, etc. The oil industry is the biggest industry in the world (the auto industry is 2nd, and the computer industry is 3rd). Your article clearly states that the reason the price of oil is increasing faster than the price of gold, is because most of the oil that has ever been pumped is all used up, whereas most of the gold that has ever been mined is still around. Oil is a necessity, whereas gold is a luxury.
If you want to compare investments, compare the performance of oil stocks versus gold stocks (no contest)!
IMHO - LOD is in!... Put/call ratio rising, high tick, trin turning lower!
I count 5 waves down from HOD!
Chuck - starting wave 3-up from LOD IMHO
We just blew through "NDX-resistance" 1550!
mrmoney - I agree that proven oil reserves are merely ball-park estimates that are often over-stated. However, it is also true that they are often under-stated. Ask any geologist, and he will tell you that the oil business is a very tricky business ("slickest companies on the planet"). When they say they have something big, they may have little or nothing. By the same token, when they say they have little or nothing, they may have something big!
Who's to say that Shell didn't announce a write-down in it's proven reserves in order to re-purchase it's own shares at a better price? The only thing we know for sure, is that the reseves are the same today as they were before the change in the "estimate." I don't think new legislation can make much difference.
soccerball - Stay away from gold! There is a very small group of professional traders who make consistant profits trading gold and gold stocks. All the rest eventually end up losing to that private club. LOL (I wouldn't touch gold with a ten-foot pole!)
blackcloud - "In the long run, we're all dead!"
Oil is now the key commodity (gold is just a relic of the past). Rising oil prices trigger "inflation" (higher prices for gasoline, food, clothing, real estate, stocks, and everything else). Oil stocks are even better than real estate as a hedge against inflation, because they are constantly increasing their reserves through their "upstream" (drilling) operations and increasing their earnings through their "downstream" (refining & retailing) operations.
If you study this site, you will see where we are in the market and economic cycles...
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
Good trading!
Dow Theorists smile after Friday rally
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:20 PM ET March 4, 2005
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ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Dow Theorists are breathing easier after Friday's rally, in which both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average closed above previous recent closing highs set in late December.
The Dow Theory, of course, is the oldest market-timing system still in widespread use. Though its adherents do not always agree on all aspects of their interpretations, the Theory's general outline is clear enough: A bull market is confirmed when both the Dow industrials ($INDU: news, chart, profile) and the Dow transports ($TRAN: news, chart, profile) jointly reach significant new highs, while a bear market is signaled when both averages reach significant new lows.
Market turning points occur when the two averages trend in opposite directions -- "nonconfirmations," in Dow Theory parlance.
It was the potential for just such a nonconfirmation that had many Dow Theorists worried over the last couple of months. After hitting new 52-week closing highs in late December -- 10,854.54 for the DJIA and 3,811.62 for the DJTA -- both averages had declined significantly in the new year. And even though the DJIA rallied strongly in February to within shouting distance of its December peak, the DJTA remained far below its late-2004 level.
Many grew resigned to the possibility that even if the DJIA were to eclipse its late-December levels, the DJTA would not -- a potentially bearish development.
But Friday's rally was even stronger for the DJTA than for the DJIA, and now both averages are above their late-December levels.
Does this mean that Dow Theorists are unanimous in believing that happy days are here again?
The answer: yes, at least for the short term, according to the three investment newsletters I monitor that base their market timing on the Dow Theory: Dow Theory Letters, edited by Richard Russell; Dow Theory Forecasts, edited by Richard Moroney; and TheDowTheory.com, edited by Jack Schannep.
However, Russell remains bearish for the longer term. That's because, by his reading, the original Dow Theorists placed even more weight on valuations than they did on joint new highs among the primary Dow averages. And because the market remains overvalued according to any of a number of fundamental criteria, Russell believes that any bull market we are seeing now comes within the context of a secular bear market that will eventually take the market down to much lower levels.
But that could take many years to play itself out. In the meantime, and at least for the short term, the Dow Theorists are smiling.
The price of OIL has not kept up with the rate of inflation over the last 10-20 years
2) The percentage of overall incomes that is spent on oil/energy related expenses is DOWN over the last ten-twenty years.
This oil scare has more bark than bite. The headline breaks to new highs will casue knee jerk reactions to the downside in the market but here is the bottom line...
In the month of February with OIL up about 10 % or so, 87% of retailers reported that their monthly sales will be BETTER than expected.
Also, Job creation expanded at its fastest pace in over four months
Its amzing how many say (incorrectly) that the market is tied to OIL or that the market pullback as oil goes up.
OIl hit highs this week.
The dow made a new 52 week and 3 1/2 year high
and the S&P made a new 52 week high
NOW, post something that shows where OIL is having a negtaive effect on the US economy???
BTW, corporate profits are still expanding also.
Peter - wave 5, or wave 333?...
If wave 1 up from the Aug low ends on Oct 6th, and wave 2 ends on Oct 25th, and wave 31 ends on Jan 3rd, and wave 32 ends on Jan 24th, and wave 331 ends on Feb 15th, and wave 332 ends on Feb 22nd, we are now in wave 3331 (this gives wave 31 (not wave 3) the same duration as wave 1).
Bottom line... it's "MELT-UP" TIME!!!
cash - OK let's talk long term then...
Maybe if we break down the indexes into their component stocks it will clear things up...
In the oils, let's take the biggest issue - XOM (now happens to have a bigger market cap than any other company on the planet) is selling for ten times earnings and just signed a major contract with Libya. (we all know what happened when Occidental drilled there) It has enormous un-tapped proven reserves in the Beaufort Sea and elsewhere. XOM is about to double it's earnings as it's p/e also doubles, which indicates a four-bagger for XOM's stock price.
On the other hand, the biggest tech stock (no longer biggest market cap) - MSFT has a p/e that is twice as high, and nothing but law-suits and a flight to Linux in it's future. If it's earnings are halved and the p/e is halved, it will lose 75% of it's value (best-case scenario)!
Maybe we should hedge ourselves by going long XOM and short MSFT. In any case it would be foolish to assume that in the long run, their price performance will be similar! JMHO
usa - Right! (Makes sense to me)
usa - either that, or oil stocks!
looks more like it's 3rd to me frank, (5 can't be bigger than 3)
Must be my bear-skin rug!
frank - Oils are unaffected by fluctuations in the price of crude near term... Obviously if oil and gas prices dropped significantly for an extended period of time, it would eventually have an adverse affect on oil company earnings.
(Not likely in the foreseeable future)
Oils continue leading the market higher!
Pullback?... What pullback?... This advance is accelerating!
(for obvious reasons)
XOI up 2% - All time high!
Unocal surges 9% at open on talk of Chevron interest (UCL, CVX, XOM) By Jim Jelter
SAN FRANCSCIO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Unocal Corp. (UCL) surged at the open Thursday on a report in the Wall Street Journal that ChevronTexaco Corp. (CVX) , the nation's second biggest oil company after Exxon Mobil (XOM) is considering making an offer for the company. Unocal was up $4.85 a share, or 9 percent, at $58.35 in early action -- a 52-week high. ChevronTexaco shares slipped 27 cents to $61.30.
cash - XOI leads, as NDX lags (due to the lack of any oil stocks in it's make-up).
In the previous time-frame you just mentioned, this was not the case...
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
aire - When did the 144-year cycle bottom?...
Was it also in 1932? If so, and we get a right translated top (I'm assuming it's too late for it to be left-translated), that would be somewhere around 2028.
If this bull market started in 1982 (not 1932), the 72 year cycle should hit a right-translated top somewhere around 2030.
Therefore, the energy stocks should continue to lead the markets higher until around 2028-2030. If I remember correctly, that would coincide with the next top in the Kondratief cycle as well
My count since 1982 - beginning 5333 up!
cash - Thanks! Interesting possibilities to consider, as we look at the "big picture" and plan our future investments. I expect the Naz/NDX/SOX to peak BEFORE the Dow or SPX does, and the oil stocks to peak AFTER the Dow or SPX does. I expect them ALL to peak before the economy does.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/SPSectors.html
(That's why I think that now is the perfect time to buy oils)