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>>So if we do not get a JV or offer above our debt at burnstone, we still have the potential to see gains
from what praytell?
Picking up cheapies here is not unlike picking hot peppers and then picking your nose. I have to admit, I'm a little surprised GBG not got much of a bounce at any point along the line, so far at least. Even companies that are destined for zero and cancellation can muster at least one decent sucker run. Van Eck likely has something to do with that, but having 500 million shares out I think adds to it too. Unfortunately, both problems are still on the table.
You need a HUI rebound, though that is no doubt going to take a POG rebound, and a little something more than that - not sure what. I don't see either be transformatively fixed in the short term - 6 to 9 months. I personally still love the sector, but you really have to see it for the stinkhole it's in right now. I think the good news is that there are many CCAA filings ahead for miners in the coming months (and so far it has been a sector uncanny for how few have filed, I can only think of about 3.5 or 4 gold miners in the past few years). Given the limitations on the canadian venture exchange for raising money under 5 cents, and the fact that many are now up against that wall, I believe we will see an increased pace. Personally, I'm going to be looking for very very low claims hurdles. I honestly suspect that if GBG had 1/3 the claims, it wouldn't trade that much higher right now, and then you'd have a real opportunity for a pop when the Burnstone bids are revealed. I don't like the stock because of the insane amount of debt - too hard to clear that in this resource market. imo.
I didn't say the bids would be based on day to day POG. I said the resource market is crap right now, far more abysmal than the crappy POG.
>>Even with the present POG, Hollister Mine being given away for $ 15 million makes no sense; there must be more to this deal that will hopefully be revealed on or after Friday May 17th?
It will make a lot more sense once we see the winning bid for Burnstone, IMHO. The resource market is beyond horrible in the short term if you haven't noticed.
We will see who knows what when the fat lady start singing in the next two weeks. My prediction for Burnstone........(drumroll please)......275mm with a 10 to 15% NPI (no payment intended). Flame away, just remember all you guys said I was bat poop crazy when I said 60mm for Hollister. (of course, I was....but on the high side)
>>I also noticed that it was from 2011
The termination was in '11 - the adversary case was just filed in bk court. I'm not saying it has any bearing on Burnstone - it looks pretty frivolous to me. Not even sure why any attorney who wants to eventually collect a fee would even bother filing it now. The meth allegation is largely moot at this point, but I still found it rather interesting.
Anybody want to go on record with guesses for what winning Burnstone bid looks like?
Hey Stump - thanks for the message a few weeks back - I don't have premium sub so I couldn't reply. Just stumbled across this board - no position. I work about a block from one of their branches, actually have an account there (I think maybe I should move it). If you ever have a boots on the ground question - pm me.
I can better picture GBG's mining operations at Hollister now - they'd give every tweeker two pick axes and send them down to drift. They are just allegations at this point, but if I were a long term holder, this would be very very upsetting if it turns out to be true.
http://www.gcginc.com/cases/rodeocreekgold/pdflib/496_50301.pdf
Nice, employee lawsuit against Rodeo Creek claiming employees were routinely high on meth while on the job.
>>Coho called it with taking so long for news being positive. Resubmitting bids means HIGHER bids.
Yep, just like with Hollister
I seriously doubt you'd have much to keep you busy in either place RB. ;) Status update promises numbers, but y'all will have to wait two more weeks, arghhh.
We all form our own opinions - if you want to trade mining stocks - a notoriously fickle sector - and never go the place where 90% of all projects anywhere in the world originate - have at it. Tie both your arms and one leg behind you at the same time. ;)
Been trying to talk my girls into a 3 day canoe trip down the Buffalo River this summer - I've told them how amazing it is....but alas no one ever listens to me. ;) Seriously - anyone that has any interest in mining stocks has to make a pilgrimage to mecca. There is the Cambridge House show in Jan that I personally think the the big one. PDAC in Toronto in March is bigger - but it's less focused on junior miners. There is another Cambridge House miner convention in summer - if you can't make the one in January, that is a distant second. There is one in about a week and a half - I don't know the name of it, but I'll be up there so I'll go. They have hard rock shows in other towns - but they aren't the same. FWIW. (rumor has it Vancouver has supplied more Playboy centerfolds than any other town in the world - in case you needed one extra reason - I suspect most worked at Cactus Club or Joey's)
Gridlock? CanadaLine from the airport to downtown - never seen a town where you needed a car less. I can see your LA of Canada point. But LA relative to Canada is not LA relative to the US. I'm back up there in a week, I promise I will go by the GBG building this trip. I'm going to stay in Richmond this time - Downtown is too frenetic for a longer stay.
What? That's completely different. Arkansas is beautiful - absolutely beautiful country - you can love Arkansas and not like Wal-Mart (you don't have to like it to shop there). And how is Vancouver 'meet the curb' - that's Brooklyn. The peeps in Vancouver are totally passive non-aggresive....they will rob you blind via your brokerage account....but they would buy all your beers and get you laughing about it. Crazy town. Gotta love it.
Hard to like miners and not like Vancouver - pick neither or both.
>>"Waterton Global is pleased with the outcome of the auction which, subject to completion, will add an additional high-quality gold mining project to its portfolio of North American operations. The transaction is expected to close on May 17, 2013; until that time Waterton Global will not be able to comment further."
I'm sure 'pleased' is an understatement.
....the rest of Vancouver is shocked and envious.....
>>I've seen you post that you expect .13 by December 2013, my math leads me to a market cap of only 63M. If the company is debt free, would you not expect the PPS to be much higher than that especially with long term investors that bought at much higher amounts.
The problem with winding up debt free in bankruptcy is that you also wind up asset free.
0 debt - 0 assets....if only the market cared about the amount the long term investors bought at.
The return to making press releases all of a sudden these past two weeks suggests to me, along with this info on the cells, that we hear something about how this exit is going to work in the next 30 to 40 days.
I'm pretty sure that GBGs chances of a joint venture with Waterton can't decrease any lower than they got last week. Fwiw. The 363 sale is done and the judge signed off....the current chances of a JV are zero...can't get any lower than that.
I certainly wasn't expecting to get inside info from employees. To the contrary, I was expecting to find an office that was empty of people. But time did not allow it. I may be back in a few weeks with a little less to get done.
Absolutely. I've never bought any stock to make a couple f'g pennies.
You guys will like this....they have a special translation of NPI up here......No Payment Intended. It's funny.....unless you got sold the NPI.
Well, so as far as the delay in news goes....people in general always hide good news as long as possible right? Nobody up here that I've talked with this week has any interest in Burnstone. No, I've not talked with every hamburger chef in Vancouver, but the general attitude doesn't bode well for a robust price when all is said and done. The lack of updates given that bids were due several weeks ago doesn't suggest a fortuitous outcome. Anyone can disagree with that, but you have to take a toke on the opium pipe first to believe otherwise. Personally, I look forward to telling RB 'I told you so'. Are you going to want some fries with that big huge slice of humble pie RB? I'll ask you again later.
LOL, the guy forgot to ask me if I wanted fries with my burger....maybe they don't do that up here.
Lower volume is bullish...............no news is good news......GBG to the moon baby.
Well I wasn't going to say it, but the people I talked to yesterday didn't like Burnstone - they thought it had geological problems.....wasn't going to mention that, but you goaded me. But the people I know are possibly not worth their salt. I sincerely doubt that, but anything is possible right?
Thanks - I see it's signed so I'd say it's a done deal with respect to Hollister
I honestly don't know. I believe if it is possible, it would be a remote uphill battle, and no one appears to have stepped forward to undertake that. I'm sorta surprised the 8% Noteholders are raising any stink over the price - but to raise a stink you have to show up in court with a better alternative in hand.
Think what you want RB. People are busy - there are all sorts of properties being vended up here on a day in day out basis - there is not enough time in the day to keep tabs on more than a few, and everyone up here already has their own properties to deal with to boot. All I'm saying is that people that I believe are well worth their salt had no idea that the auction had occured and that Waterton won it with such a low bid - given how low the bid was, and how news usually travels around here, it had a much lower profile than I would have expected. Take that as you please.
I need to call the company. Past experience in doing so has had mixed results. I wouldn't say shareholders are completely in the dark....we have access to the docket if we know where to find it (the free version and the more complete pacer version). Docket in hand, you can see what is there, like the attorney time sheets....and you can see what isn't there, which many times is equally important. One can call the company, but the questions you really want answers to they can't answer, either because they don't know or can't say. I think I may call next week though. Sometimes what they can't or won't say holds the answer you need, as long as you asked the question the right way. The change in the share price has probably primed the right types of questions.
It's not really any fun to mock Canadian hockey fans....passive non-aggressive behavior on their part sucks all the enjoyment out of it. I still haven't made it over to GBG HQ, but I did spend most of the evening with some well connected mining guys in Vancouver. People here know GBG fairly well, they know Hollister is a really solid project, and Vancouver is a small town when it comes to trade news, but nobody knew about the Hollister auction. The only word that comes to mind when I told them the terms was absolute incredulity. I'm starting to suspect the marketing was not as robust as advertised. So everyone was fully aware of the sale, but they all seemed to have the impression there was 50 bidders, and so they figured what was the point of spending the time. I think maybe the IB dropped the ball at some point along the line....like when they knew they didn't have many earnest bidders and should have done some followup to encourage interested parties back to the table. It's a little bit stinky. I was going back over the docket tonight....has a sale confirmation order been entered yet? I'm not seeing one.
There was a ton of volume below .02 - I'd hazard to guess that many are quite happy to take a 3 to 5 bagger and move on no questions asked. Personally, I think the stars may be aligned on this one where the interests of those at the table, namely Berg, happen to coincide with equity. I don't believe that was true at the outset of the case - but I do believe it is now. Valence/Berg is open to new money coming in. If the business/IP is truly worth a small fortune, the framework of bankruptcy will work to protect shareholder interests. If it isn't worth much, then it's a big zero at the end as it should be. At the beginning of the case, the company was not open to new money and it really looked like Berg was going to snake it all via a lowball valuation. Don't know why that changed (I have a few theories, but they are just that), but it did change. I don't think its surprising that there is a bit of an overhang here given where this has traded ever since end of last summer. I'm holding right around 4 mm shares with an average cost around a penny - plan for now is to let all ride....you only live once right and stars don't align so well all that often anymore. imo
Didn't make it over there yesterday - will try today.
Not yet. That's obviously the key, though I think we'll be able to guess the parameters if and when we see terms on a new equity infusion. I'd guess if Berg can't get new money on a good pre-money valuation he will take it private....which would be bad. I think however the market right now would support a good value - I think if it wouldn't Berg would have closed this case out back in December as was the original plan.
All the best to you Tex.
Don't have a position here but I've been loosely following the case. Up in Vancouver on business this week so for lunch today I went and found the new franchise. It was pretty good - very fast, relatively cheap (it's Vancouver so it's all relative), nice decor, free wifi - I'd say that they had a decent lunch crowd and the girl at the counter told me they were 'pretty busy' most of the time. If it was in my home town, I'd go again on a regular basis. I got the tofu with carrots, brown rice and broccoli. It was right about 8 bucks - was ready in under 2 minutes. That said, not sure how common equity will do here given the debt and preferred shares have priority. FWIW
Believe it or not I'm actually up in Vancouver working this week. Just pulled up GBG address and I'm about two blocks away from their HQ. I'll have to see if I can pop in their building and see if there is any activity if I get the time.
Ya, I don't think so Coho. Was checking the GBG site today; from memory there was supposed to be a meeting of the Southgold unsecured creditors on 4/30 to go over the bids. They have in the past post the minutes of those meetings, but they haven't done so yet. Maybe the meeting was postponed, maybe a delay in posting the minutes - who knows.