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What's interesting to me is that recently it began forming a megaphone formation (hourly).
~d
NVDA has a projection to 500 using both classical TA and Hurst methods. I posted it at least a week ago on various forums.
Long August calls, and looking for October puts pretty soon, before earnings.
Please stop this Guta, thanks.
Many analysts warned their clients even before 2007 regarding a coming crash. It is valid.
An excellent trader friend of mine who uses GANN principles (that stuff gives me a bigger headache even than Elliot Wave) said that if we meet or go over, 3330 that the eventual decline would be stronger than if we turned down at 3330.
I do believe that his first target was 2960.
Cheers to the board.
I don't know, I've never really considered that. Good question.
However, Don Wolunchuk has made several in the past about WWW. Unfortunately I only vaguely remember what they were: I know there was one thing about what happens if it doesn't cause a decline. You Could always ask him on Silicon Investor on his board.
Best regards, Ferda.
~d
I don't think so, Kevgan. I stated several times that a re-test of the lows would be too easy for the bears. I think we may see around 250 by Xmas,then a trading range for at least 1 or posttibly 2 years than down a lot further than under 200, and ultimately I have 25 has a final bear projection.
Yes, that's 25.
You could be right as tomorrow is Weird Wollie Wednesday.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=22784888
On the other hand, just eyeballing SPY options that close tomorrow the OTM puts seem overpriced in relation to OTM calls. This is for August 17th, not tomorrow.
~d
That would be too easy for the bears (under 200).
Think again.
~d
That is interesting have to study it awhile, ty, TT.~d eom
Weird Wolly Wednesday this week.
That's 4 W's, by the way.
Useless unless I understand what it means. Can you clarify?~d eom
Hello, fellow traveler! I occasionally have dreams about the market that always come true.
Only one from ten years ago left outstanding.
~d
What's an OEPM stuffie?TIA
Bear trap today, potentially. Adding to Aug calls and September puts, both.
~d
dotnet, on Thinkorswim the $ticker for breadth on SPX is $adspd and $adnddc for NDX breadth. I also use $TICK, TICK/r and $TRIN (not as much), and intra-day put/call ratios (not as much the last).
I primarily use hourly for swing and five minute for day trading. I will use tick and ATR charts if I need clarification. I have found though it's not really useful to do that. I would miss a trade on a time based chart that was obvious on a tick or ATR based one, and vice verse and ended up getting paralyzed by analysis. Better to stick to the discipline of one style of charting for me.
I use classic TA indicators with them, anything really works. I just use price for entry/exit. Never for strategy anymore.
A lot of puts expiring tomorrow sold on VXX today. We’re going up tomorrow again unless they’re a hedge against shorts. We’ll know soon enough.
By the way, I stopped posting these astrology tidbits in the last few months, but August is a big ally of the year (Rat) in Chinese astrology. In the Chinese soli-lunar calendar, August ends on August 21, pretty close to that Gann turn date.
This astrological information is really low, low level, coffee type type table astrology, and doesn't always work. IT did work this year for March (enemy of rat). It sort of worked for May (also enemy) in that it was a trading range. July is not an enemy, but not a friend either of the rat, so it sort of worked for July, also.
Last year it worked beautifully.
I'll have to try it. It looks very mysterious. Any tips on how to use them that you've gleaned from your years of experience? If proprietary, not a problem.
~d
335 pretty soon (even with potential employment drop tomorrow). Added to 340 Aug 19 calls.~d
(edited) Let's see if they pull another 3:30 pm drop and pop. Support at 332.60.~d eom
It's that low volume air pocked I mentioned earlier today that's pulling price up. However, there's another one between 331 and 330. Now is as good a place as any to start accumulating cheap 331 puts.
Interesting how $TICK is so subdued with this rally. Even TICK/Q (tech) is not amazing.
$TRIN @ 1.42. The late, great Terry Laundry of T-theory fame used to say that contrary to the opinion of most, a rising $TRIN on a rising market was bullish.
Sold calls added earlier today @ SPY 332. Never thought it would get this high today.
~d
It doesn't look good for a while as I accumulate. Then it picks up.
Interesting, why do you like Fib fans and arcs?
~d
Why don't you try my strategy of accumulating puts at hourly breadth highs and selling them at low, and vice versa for calls. At the moment breadth is oversold. It was overbought last night but 'they' took care of that real quick. I use indicators overlaid on breadth charts. Anything works, really, ma's, macd, stochastics, etc...
Very simple system.
Will admit, p and l doesn't look so good for a while.
Can someone help me out here?
McClellan uses the 3 month T bill yield projected forward two years to predict market volatility. I am trying to duplicate his efforts but the charted T bill yield on stockcharts.com doesn't look the same as his. Anyone have any ideas and can post an updated chart of same?
Link to article:
https://stockcharts.com/articles/tac/2020/03/vix-rise-overdone-but-part-of-355.html
You think they will take a short now to there? Not clear, please clarify, thanks.
~d
Thank you!eom
Fed lifting market up and will drop us like a rock when ordered. It will be blamed on an external event, of course.
I posted this before that Martin Armstrong was told by one of his clients back in September of 2019 that there was a big meeting for the uber rich in September in Switzerland. There they were told to sell all stock and bonds. Never before in history have the rich been told to sell both at the same time.
I really, really, want to master the Greeks, especially gamma strategies. It's what the pros do, but I don't know calculus, don't want to learn it, and you need to be a master of math to really get it.
Doing the best I can.
What was interesting to me this week in analysing 3 to 4 pm SPY and IWM options volume data was that starting last Friday, for the first time since the beginning of July more ATM and slightly OTM calls and puts were sold than bought. Couldn't make head or tail of it till today.
I was under the impression that futures were not reliable as EM is often used to hedge the 'real' position?
How do you feel about that, TT?
Volume pocket above 332.72 that will act like a magnet if price rallies above. Added to Aug 19 calls.
Schneidke, re: Bezos that was an excellent point so I looked it up. From Marketbeat:
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/AMZN/insider-trades/
Check out the AH trading at around 8:30PM last night.~d eom
Nasaravi,
RSP, SPX midcap and small cap have not exceeded or even met their June highs.
~d
Will Meade on Twitter just posted that Jeff Bezos just sold 3 billion of Amazon stock; the last time he did this was on February 6th, 2020.
~d
Welcome to the Lonely Bear Hearts Club.
LOL
~d
Just read on twitter (the real Will Meade) that Jeff Bezos just sold 3 billion worth of his stock. The last time he did this was on February 6th.
Pardon? NVM? eom