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Wrong movie?
FMCKI 1.8700 +0.2175 +13.1619%
Volume 3600
LOL. FNMAS is up +2.59%. FNMA is down -2.41%
In the original version of your post you only quoted FNMAT. Later you edited your post and added FNMAS.
However, FNMAT (of today) has still almost NO volume (2050). And it's green, by the way.
FNMAT 1.92 0.02 +1.05%
Volume 2,050
Nice try though.
Declines on low volume are bullish. That's charting 101.
That's why our "negotiator" Carlos Sancho Panza is fighting an elusive "Empire of Evil" - with as little chance of success as the original Don Quixote fighting windmills.
What's more, they've driven him crazy because he now suspects hidden duplicate accounts and fake IDs everywhere.
Your arguments are grotesquely wrong. If FnF are released, they will necessarily be private again. That will strengthen the dollar, not weaken it. Because then the MBS of FnF will definitely no longer have to be counted as government debt.
How FnF are released (i.e. whether the SPS shares are written off or converted to legacy common stock) is completely irrelevant.
Anyone who has followed the Lamberth litigation should have realized that the hostile attitude of the government, FHFA, and their attorneys toward existing shareholders has not changed in any way since NWS (2012). DeMarco has continued to lie through his teeth in court. Judge Lamberth let him get away with it and sided with him. Lamberth even repeated - in gross violation of form - the lies that FnF caused the 2008 financial crisis. And no argument or counter-strategy was too shabby for the FHFA's attorneys to put the plaintiffs in a bad light in front of the jury.
So my question again, now also to Barron4664: What are the chances that the government and the FHFA will unexpectedly turn into a branch of the Salvation Army?
I can also explain it in a simpler and more understandable way: A strong rally of the commons is not desired by interested parties. Therefore, 1) the news of recap/release will most likely come when the markets are closed (e.g. over the weekend) and 2) all Fannie and Freddie stocks (including JPS) will most likely be suspended from trading before the market reopens - and remain suspended for an extended period of time. Meanwhile, the recap negotiations will take place, with stock prices "frozen" at the last close.
Could be. Next step: Suspend trading on all Fannie/Freddie stock on Monday before the market opens.
Just three days extension:
Plaintiffs and Defendants (“the Parties”) jointly request that the Court extend by three days, to November 17, 2023, the deadline for the Parties to submit a joint statement setting forth their calculation of prejudgment interest using the criteria set forth in the Court’s October 24, 2023 Order (No. 1:13-cv-01053, ECF No. 413; No. 1:13-mc-01288, ECF No. 402) and a proposed order of final judgment.
It's 38% of the price drop after the day the NWS was announced in 2012. The award should be 100%, but for some reason no one ever explained it's only 38%. (Orig. damage: $1.6 billion, awarded damage: $612 million = 38%).
Some JPS such as FMCKJ dropped more than others (e.g. FNMAS), so you get different awards for each class of JPS. For Fannie JPS, you also get prejudgment interest since 2012.
I have no control over the outcome of the Lamberth case (nor do you).
Of course, I would prefer a full payout now.
The damage award for FNMAS is only 50 cents. So you would get about 3 cents a year in "pro forma" dividends until R/R occurs. Still better than nothing.
I certainly would prefer a full payout now.
If the payouts for the JPS are withheld, prejudgment interest must be paid until recap/release occurs. That would be a hidden reinstatement of a 5.75% "pro forma dividend" - even if only on the damage award.
Great news for JPS.
+1 $FNMAS $FMCKJ is easily the best asymmetric 2024 election trade today.
— familymang (@familymang1) November 5, 2023
Mr. Market will inevitably wake up when the crowd starts hunting for "Trump" trades shortly in a few months.
Expect easy double, potential 3-4x by elections, and ~10x if Trump wins.@BillAckman Agrees. https://t.co/ddz2w0432i pic.twitter.com/H7g8Q0Kx04
Unfortunately, Bill Ackman, Tim Pagliara and Gary Hindes have not allowed me to discuss my salary in public. All I can tell you is that my cave in Donkey Village, Venezuela is paid for.
There is indeed a huge difference in price. I am glad to see that a first glimmer of reason has brightened your head.
He might want to screw you with post-dilution 0.1 cent junk.
Also lil bro might want to learn that a drop on low volume is considered bullish by chart technicians.
It's called a "healthy consolidation."
Perhaps the JPS drop because they are pricing in the approximately $1 payout they will receive when the Lamberth ruling becomes final (similar to "ex-dividend" trading).
Could it be that the parties to the lawsuit will declare at the time of the ruling that they do not intend to appeal, and therefore no further 60-day waiting period is required for the payout?
There were obviously too many free vacations in the Bahamas.
I don't think anyone in their right mind would short the JPS at current prices. The risk of losing is too high.
Shorting commons, on the other hand, is almost risk free (for Wall Street insiders participating in the IPO) and could yield a 90% profit within weeks (read my last post).
I hope you noticed that FNMA and FMCC were among the biggest losers yesterday?
Another possible early warning could be a sudden and significant drop in the price of commons. Wall Street insiders could short the legacy commons just before the suspension of trading (prior to R/R) is announced. If they are also participating in the IPO/SPO, this is particularly advantageous because they can cover their legacy common shorts at the same time as they subscribe to the new shares (which will be profitable in itself).
Wall Street could, for example, short the legacy commons at 70 cents - and then cover those shorts after they are heavily diluted to 5 cents in the course of recap/release. That's over 90% almost risk-free profit - within weeks.
What does my sentence mean that "You are at the mercy of the organizers"?
The organizers are Treasury, the FHFA, and the Department of Justice (i.e., "government agencies"), and they are backed by Wall Street, which is handling the IPO/SPO professionally.
When someone says, "I'm from the government and I'm here to help you," it means, in plain English, "We want your money!"
The Justice Department's job is to legally structure this "robbery" so that any lawsuits go nowhere, if possible, or at least make the plaintiffs very little money. Wall Street will make sure that the TBTF banks, which will be among the subscribers to the new shares, make a nice profit and that there are enough subscribers to ensure that the capital raise goes off without a hitch.
So it will be a Hank Paulson event: "The only thing shareholders will hear is their heads hitting the floor."
Vale verga?
Sorry, I only trade about twice a year.
I hope you know that I'm just kidding. Only Navy is a really serious commander (of meaningless quotes)
Worst performance today:
FNMA 0.69 -0.04 -5.48%
Best performance today:
FREGP 2.95 +0.17 +6.12%
https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/fmcc,fnma,fmckj,fmcki,fmccm,fmcck,fmcct,fmcci,fmckk,fmccg,fmcch,fmccl,fmccn,fmcco,fmccp,fmccj,fregp,fmckp,fmccs,fmcko,fmckm,fmckn,fmckl,fnmap,fnmao,fnmfo,fnmam,fnmag,fnman,fnmal,fnmak,fnmah,fnmai,fnmaj,fnmas,fnmat,fnmfm,fnmfn/view/v1
If it works as I have explained, "we" (legacy commons) will indeed "get our companies back", but our share will be diluted to 0.5% (or less) ownership.
Gary Hindes, by the way, holds tons of JPS.
I am curious about alternative versions of yours.