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Don't over think it Jitz. Hopefully the full data will be released and there will be some positive secondary endpoints in there.
If the company could have spun these results in any positive light they would have.
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We would not have been able to raise so much money without COVID. Even though it failed, it saved our butts. We were in really bad shape 19 months ago.
Now we can at least think about phase 3 OM. Hopefully in conjunction with some other deals.
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Placebo had 120 with 4 dead.
Brilacidin had 120 (30+90) with 4 dead.
It had no apparent affect on morality rates.
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OM is one of the cheapest trials we could run. Literally a mouth wash. Swish and spit. Also it's phase 3 which will bring lots of interest.
$350M market cap isn't very high for a phase 3 company. That's 10x from here just for starting the trial on an indication that is almost certain to succeed.
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Yes, and probably a partnership of some kind on some other indication. Too much to explore here on our own now that we can no longer tap the stock for money.
We're in better shape now than we were at the end of 2019 for sure.
If nothing else, COVID allowed us to reset with $11M in the bank (up from $700K), albeit with more shares outstanding.
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This may force his hand into making a large partnership, that while previously underwhelming, from here would be quite good.
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This is WAYYYY over sold. Market cap is under $30M now....similar to two years ago except we now have $10M+ in the bank instead of $800K.
You think this company couldn't be sold for $100M at the drop of a hat?
Probably multiples of that in a heartbeat.
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$IPIX Stay strong friends. IPIX is not finished.
Here is the rule to remember in the future, When anything tempts you to be bitter: not, 'This is a misfortune' but 'To bear this worthily is good fortune. ' - Marcus Aurelius
Our market cap is now only $35M with almost $10M cash and a very high potential pipeline. This is significantly over sold. It's going to be a long slog but IPIX will persevere.
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I bought 35000 @ 0.08 this morning.
Market cap is down around $35M now. We have cash and will likely be bought for 10x that or more.
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Oh stop with the Leo attacks.
He's doing the best he can. He has no control over the results.
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Well, bad news will probably be released Friday afternoon/evening in an 8-K if results are unfavorable.
Hopefully Leo provides us with an update or release before then. Obviously releasing good results on a Friday would be a bit of a momentum killer.
So if I were a betting man I'd say we get a delay update PR by tomorrow before the bell. Otherwise, I'm thinking seriously red Friday in anticipation of a Friday filing.
Come on Leo, let us know if you don't have the data yet. Someone he likes please email the guy.
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As we roll into Thursday trading without a realease or update PR its time to start thinking.
Assume we get a filing stating endpoints were not met.
A what price are y'all buyers to forge ahead witha last ditch OM/ UC trial?
The pipeline still has some value and there will probably be a bear raid that will push this well below a reasonable floor.
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Well...good luck everyone.
The next 50 hours are going to be very nervous and tense until we either get good TLD, a PR announcing another delay, or make it to 7pm without an 8K.
Hopefully Leo will update us tomorrow.
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Well, only those who expect the broader market to expect that a three-man pharma led by an ex-NNVC officer has a drug that will beat moderate-severe COVID when a dozen other challengers have been felled in it's wake.
That's part of the value proposition though. If Brilacidin succeeds, we get an extra 10x for being believers from the bottom. Lopsided payout to longs on this coin toss.
Expect the unexpected Michel. But don't expect the market to.
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Stock price is meaningless until TLD.
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I dunno. We had one guy with $800/share IPIX in his sig a little ways back.
That would make us the second largest pharma behind J&J. That's a pretty big imagination.
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I think if we get word that data is in hand without a filing then it must be good. Friday after the bell is the time to put out bad data.
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Doubt they'll waste a good TLD release on Veteran's Day or a Friday. At this point I expect it will be held until Monday for a five day run to maintain momentum.
If it's bad we'll probably get it Friday after the bell. I have a feeling we're all going to be stressing and hoping for no filing Friday evening. If it won't be until next week Leo should PR so aren't scurred on Friday night - he wouldn't leave us hanging.
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TLD is going to be very sobering.
We just don't know if it will be sobering for shorts or longs right now.
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No it's not. Did you miss the memo the past 18 months? We're an antiviral company now.
It's only potentially major if B-COVID TLD is bad. Other wise it's just a little less icing on a very big cake.
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We should know what we have next week.
Let's pray for blowout results.
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Oooh I see what you did there.
I like that number a lot if it comes this month. I think I could settle for being the 2nd all-time high biotech acquisition premium.
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All time record premium was ~1700% in 2020.
Prior to that top premium acquisitions ranged from ~200%-550%.
So $7 if we're setting a new record.
Otherwise, $1.08-2.34 if we're going to be among the 10th through the 2nd highest acquisition premiums.
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Ah that's an interesting little tidbit. Thanks!
Well who knows? Maybe this one is special after all.
Or, No Thanks. That's just going to make waiting for results the next few days all the more excruciatingly long.
But Thanks. That was quite a detail to dig up.
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Not following. What are you seeing here aside from a 10-Q that was filed on the same +/- 1 day as 7 of the last 10 10-Qs?
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This is routine filing time for IPIX. Much like there is nothing in this timing for Sunspotter to see, there's nothing for you to see here either:
2021 11/9
2020 11/16
2019 11/13
2018 11/8
2017 11/8
2016 11/9
2015 11/9
2014 11/8
2013 11/8
2012 11/13
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I'm assuming the arrangement is similar to our previous RBL and academic collaborations where we provide product, they research it for the glory of their academics.
As if a dozen lab hours is really all that expensive even if we were paying them for it (never heard of such an arrangement). It would be well worth the cost to have these third parties publishing and signing off on the work.
You don't have to assume the same but it's an awful lot of work to further parse the exact details of additional in vitro studies.
Looking toward TLD.
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Agreed. If IPIX gets good TLD on COVID and any significant funding the stock price is going to have a decade-long ramp up to exceedingly large numbers.
Assuming they don't get taken out quick.
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IPIX provides the product.
Gov lab does the research and testing.
IPIX is probably providing the <$1000 worth of Brilacidin for testing at cost. A stellar deal to have government researchers doing this work for us.
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"The bravest sight in the world is to see a great man struggling against adversity." - Seneca
Leo is the tip of the spear but every single IPIX shareholder is struggling against great adversity. May victory be ours this week!
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That's how you make money in IPIX.
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I know those numbers are a little smaller than our potential....but man...a $10-$15 takeout this year would be something else.
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I guess. Seems equally likely we get a 5pm filing on Friday night. I certainly dont want Friday to close without results or a status update.
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AlfaSigma is not a top partner prospect. They dont have enough money nor do they have enough clout with the FDA to push through an EUA.
We need a big boy.
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Database lock is not the same as unblinding of data. As of his email, Leo does not have the data in any form he could interpret.
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It was a COVID sector-wide decline. I dont think there was any shift due to their EUA news.
No one in the broader market thinks IPIX is getting EUA on 60 patients dosed. If the results are good enough to attain that, EUA wont matter.
Hopefully results are good and we can partner with a BP asap and get a phase 3 going with EUA at the interim of that. It will probably be 2023 before we're on the general market.
Again, if it looks good we're going to be set with all the potential indications.
Go IPIX!
Per Leo's email to DrBones: