Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
As good as your signal may be, there are various techniques for maximizing and/or retaining the gains produced. A variety of equity curve "filters" can be applied (e.g. you trade when the signal is above the equity curve trend, and go to Cash when below it), but here (pink line) is one that is very effective for the TMG live signal (green line, as published) since Feb 2008...
It is really quite simple. You run up 100s of billions in debt and then by your monetary actions devalue the dollar which effectively devalues the debt and sticks it to your creditors. I am sure the Chinese will be chomping at the bit for more of that action. What do you think happens when there is no one left who is willing to finance our massive debt and getting screwed in the process? Let's see, we're going to triple the deficit because of necessary "investment", and then claim credit for cutting it in half in four years. Talk about creative financing, but I guess just the act of saying it will make a lot of fools believe you. You do the math, but I think that says it will be 50% greater.
If you are unhappy with what is going on in Washington, you only need go look in the mirror for who to blame, but don't beat yourself up too much if you were one of many who were sucked in by the flowery oratory and lofty promises of "Change You Can Believe In". Abe Lincoln once said, "You can fool all the people some of the time." Instead, adopt as your mantra "Change That Counts", and resolve to correct your mistake in two years by voting out every single member of Congress, Democrat or Republican, who has been complicitous in this headlong rush towards socialism.
I might also add that the slope of the MACD will roll over or flatten out several days in advance of a zero crossing, and in that regard is far preferrable in most instances to a simple two-EMA crossover.
Steve, it has been very liberating finally to rid ourselves of the parasitic C2 relationship. Our primary purpose in being there was to establish and maintain a public trading record, but if anyone did want to subscribe, the onerous 30% fee and then the 45 - 60 day holdback were always hard pills to swallow. Of course, lacking the understand and appreciation of normal statistical variances and the patience and discipline to stick it out throught the inevitable downturns, the vast majority of C2 subscribers have about as much staying power as a fart in a high wind.
Hope your experience and results with MVP have been more satisfactory. I know you put in a lot of time and effort trying to keep the natives happy.
Gloria, we continue to find ways of squeezing a few more nickels out of the system and what the market offers. Since the market typically overshoots and then retraces, using extremes of RSI and breadth as triggers, a very profitable hybrid strategy can be constructed which trades at either EOD *or* NDO, which all other things being equal (i.e. the signal is exactly the same) is significantly better than either method alone. It is all about the Nyquist-Shannon Sampling Theorem. The same concept can be applied to determine when you should trade at 1X or 2X, i.e. when is the reward/risk factor the greatest.
Thanks for the info and the sentiment on the Fund. If we can do half as well as the live signal has since early last year, we should all be very rich one day. My goal in life has always been to pay $1M in taxes (of course, Mo'Bama and the socialist Demogogues are determined to help me in that regard).
RB, In preparation of the impending launch of the TMG Capital Fund, LLP, and to avoid conflict of interest, the system is no longer being offered on C2 and is closed to new subscribers on the TMG site. Accordingly, it was necessary and appropriate to change the focus of this board and to remove the links. However, you should still be able to find us if you are resourceful. We are still entering trades on C2, but have not been as rigorous and meticulous lately as in the past.
There are many different ways of using MACD, but it is not the panacea of TA. If there were one rule which worked all the time, everyone would be using it and there would be no market. If you are right more than 50% of the time, some other poor schmuck has to be wrong more than 50% of the time. However, used in conjunction with an array of other indicators, MACD can be very effective. It is a key component of TMG for determining the market's IT Bull/Bear bias, and the slope of the MACD curve is especially useful since it tells you whether the MACD itself is increasing (bullish) or decreasing (bearish), appropriately smoothed to avoid one day whipsaws.
I thought you were interested at one point, but it seems you were sucked in by all the e-wave mumbo jumbo.
As stated in the iBox, but for those just looking for easy answers or without the analytical skills to develop a system of their own, probably of not much interest or use. "Give a man a fish and he eats for a day, teach a man to fish and he eats for a lifetime." When I was teaching, we said that you could tell your students you were about to reveal to them the secrets of the universe, and all they would want to know would be whether it was on the next test.
...make that "rogue waves." If I weren't so cheap, I'd sign up for a premium membership with spell/typo checking.
..."known as rouge waves"...
Anyone is free to post a specific timely call if they so choose, but the focus of the board is not to see who can pee higher on the post over some arbitrarily short time frame. There are plenty of other charlatans around the various iHub boards who do that in spades. While not on a par with the thousands percent gain claimed by others, TMG is quite pleased with our ~ 190% gains for the live signal if traded exactly per the published strategy since early Feb 2008 when the current version became available, but out of respect for our subscriber base, we don't routinely divulge the signal.
Just a note about performance claims, trading is a lot like Russian roulette, i.e. a 100% gain on a $100 bet is a lot different than a 100% gain on a $100,000 bet. In Russian roulette, on any single turn you have *only* a one in six chance of blowing your head off, but that outcome is so thoroughly unacceptable that most rational people won't take it. So, claims of x% returns really have no meaning in the trading world without an understanding and appreciation of the associated risk.
My theory is that timing systems that trade at set times will *always* be vulnerable to the whims of the market, since they will only be in perfect synchronization with market moves a very small percentage of the time. The result is the same as wave trains on the ocean that for a time exhibit constructive interference and at other times destructive interference. The phenonomenon knows as "rouge waves" that can literally swallow a ship as it falls into the leading trough is the most glaring example. A "perfect" system would be one which trades as soon as certain rule criteria are met and does not rely on set trade times, but unfortunately, those systems are very difficult if not impossible to backtest, since without intraday price history, most trading strategies are only "proveable" over the most recent market history. Also, by the "rung bell" analogy, rules which cause trades to be executed are very prone to whipsaws, and if the condition that caused the trade should no longer be true, you can only undo the trade execution by trading again, and many small losses can add up to a big one, not to mention the cost of more frequent trades.
If anyone has anything positive or constructive to add to the discussion, you are more than welcome to post, but if your intent is only to disrupt with your sophomoric pronouncements, then please spare us and just stay away. If you have no interest in what we have to say, then why torture yourself? Just use the "ignore" feature. That is certainly what we do...
Would you like to develop and implement your own rule-based trading strategy but don't know where to begin?
Steve, I've changed the name and focus of the board to Rule-Based Trading Systems and took the liberty of appointing you as a moderator. Hope to turn this into an intelligent forum for rule based trading and common system development challenges.
Formerly the TMG Support board, this board is now dedicated to the discussion of rule-based trading systems in general. Please feel free to post and share your trading and system development ideas. All normal rules of decorum and conduct apply.
Hey, Poker, nice to see you are still interested in what we have to say, but your message was removed due to TOS violation (Spam/Advertising/Promotion). If you disagree, please feel free to take it up with Ihub Admin.
Posted by: POKERSAM Date: Wednesday, February 18, 2009 10:43:02 PM
In reply to: None Post # of 16473
You can get my free Nightly Update each evening by registering at my website. I don't just tell you what happened today but what I think will happen tomorrow and next week. Try it out and see how often I am right.
Ed. comment - If you can stand the hubris and chest thumping.
We have learned through painful experience that the statistical model approach employed by the system is basically incompatible with the trading psyche and expectations of the vast majority of subscribers. Without the understanding, appreciation, and/or tolerance for normal statistical variations, many have only been interested in joining after the system has recorded a sustained short term uptrend and then have bailed like rats on a sinking ship at the first sign of a downturn, essentially repeating the same behavior of "buying high and selling low" that makes them unsuccessful as individual traders in the first place. We are also preparing to take the system towards a more exclusive offering, and so to avoid any potential future conflict of interest, the system is closed to new subscribers on C2 as of Jan 1, 2009. We will still be accepting members on our site for a limited time.
As of today's open (our official EOY point), since 2/6/2008 (the start date for the current version), the live signal was up 121.25% if traded at 1X and 319.82% if traded at 2X.
The system has recovered nicely since ~ 12/12, is now back to early Nov levels, and with three trading days remaining, looks to close 2008 up ~ 115% from it's early Feb 2008 restart with the current version. Final stats after EOY...
Closed "Black November" down ~ 4%, thusly, December is free for all current TMG site subscribers.
Steve - Kudos from you are especially appreciated, because you are one of the few who truly appreciates what it takes to produce good, consistent results. We've had a good run lately, but we don't think for a minute that the market may not yet have nasty surprises in store for us. The lesson we learned with the version we were trading prior to Feb this year was that it isn't about always being right, but limiting the damage when you are wrong, and even then, the rare convergence of unlikely events can still hammer you far more than you planned.
Roger, out...
He calls his projections "most probable" when in fact they are nothing more that his subjective determination and/or interpretation of what his E-Waves are purportedly revealing, which he frequently "revises and extends", i.e. he conveniently changes his story whenever the market proves him wrong. Moreover, his predictions are sorely lacking of the critical time component. He can't tell you what the market will do tomorrow (although he normally thinks it will go down), only that it will go down eventually. It is analogous to flipping a coin and congratulating himself (at which he is very prolific) when he is right, and dismissing it or saying that he'll get it right on the next flip (or the one after that, or the one after that) when he is wrong. I suspect that he wouldn't recognize a legitimate probability calculation or confidence interval if it came up from behind and bit him on the buttocks.
Dan, My Man, how *are* you?
Yeah, I can only take so much of his BS and chest thumping before I have to step in. We had at one point reached a level of mutual respect, but he continues to insist on playing the game of "who can pee higher on the post". Of course, none of his claims are publicly verifiable, so I guess we should just take his word for it. Also of key importance is how much his "game" is. 650% on a handful of puts is nothing to crow about (ala my Russian roulette analogy). If you aren't willing to put the big money on the line, then you are just blowing smoke. His clueless minions remind me of the wicked witch's flying monkeys in the Wizard of Oz.
Pretty good, especially all the other so called experts (idiots) laughing at his views.
Yeah, Ben Stein, what is your Merrill Lynch recommendation worth today?
I think he routinely grants himself the liberty of modifying his trading record after the fact, just like he does for his wave counts (have you noticed how often he "revises and extends" them?). Remember how Hillary did so well with her cattle futures? $5K to $100K in about a month, or 2000%. It is pretty easy to rack up nice gains with the benefit of perfect hindsight (or a complicit broker). He was calling for this Bear market every single day a full year before it arrived, but a rare convergence of events finally gave it to him. Of course, his E-wave mumbo jumbo, which is total BS based on a pattern of trader sentiment that is defined *in advance* and is devoid of any scientific provability, predicted it all along. Causality and statistical correlation are simply not in his lexicon (probably not "lexicon" either). I suspect he will still be calling for more down long after the Bear is in hibernation again, but for today he is a rock star in the eyes of the clueless idiots who are enthralled with his every move and pronouncement.
JLS - I really think you have hit upon something that I have felt is true for a long time re: how much any particular trader has at stake. It is exactly like playing Russian roulette. On any particular round, you only have a 1 in 6 chance of blowing your head off, but that result is so uniformly bad and final that few would choose to take the chance. If I have $10 on the Pass/Don't Pass line, that is a *lot* different than having $100K or so riding on it, especially when the larger number is a fair chunk of your net worth. So, bottom line, claims of high percent returns don't mean much without an attendant quantification of the associated risk, and moreover taking into account the willingness of the individual investor to take that risk, which can vary widely from trader to trader depending on their separate circumstances and constitutions.
Yeah, you nailed. "I made 650% on 1 Put." Whoopee...
Closed "Black October" up 21.1% for the month on C2...
As of yesterday Merlin has gone into IT Bull trend as defined by the MACD Slope which has now turned positive.
Trend - My guess is that you would be right. It is good to see a fellow student of math amidst all the hocus pocus. Laplace transforms are perhaps the simplest, most elegant way ever devised for solving linear differential equations. It is simply the nature of some to belittle and scoff at that which they haven't an inkling of understanding or even appreciating. Laplace would be rolling over in his grave.
FYI, a TOS violation can end up sending you to Jail. Report submitted to iHub Admin. Keep it up and make this easy.
I can take it just fine, except that periodically I need to clean up our "trash". I would caution you to watch your "mouth" re: the iHub TOS. You are free to express any opinion you want, but do it politely and without vulgarity, and I might add "mea culpa". That's why I deleted *both* our messages.
Okay, we've had our fun, now I need to "clean up" the thread...
Hmmm, he seems to be especially bitter and animated about something, Perhaps an original TMG subscriber who either didn't understand and had no stomach for normal statistical variations, or simply couldn't follow the signal.
Anyone is welcome to check out the latest *TMG II* public results at:
http://www.collective2.com/go/tmg2
TMG II has a Collective2 system rating of 9.94/10, up > 20% for the month of October.
Mongo, aren't your knees getting a little sore from hanging around here so long?
Mongo, my pointy headed friend, you don't have to believe me, and moreover, I really don't care if you do or not. TMG II has a Collective2 rating of 9.94/10. The *public* record is viewable at:
http://www.collective2.com/go/tmg2
PT - Don't concern yourself. He's just the Chief Stooge of the EW-Master and probably wouldn't understand.
Mongo - We're doing just fine, but thank you for asking. Up > 20% for October with two trading days to go.