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Will, if there was shortage of investment money for business, interest rates would increase, tight now MZM (lazy money in "zero maturity" instruments) is at an all time high, just waiting for business to need it... <<<<
the deflationery arguement, is that the bull market got capacity overbought, consumer's overlevered, and that mzm and low rates that would expand business investment and capacity are just pissing in the wind, and the real solution is to mop up the excess capacity and reduce the systemic leverage.
given that that the markets have never had this reaction to a fed funds run like this last 1.5 years, in the last half century . . .
yes it does, the $rut was a winner during the bear market, but has had the weakest bounce of the july low, that is a bear flag and looks like new lows are out there, min retest of the july lows.
yep, the bigalow institute for chart gigolo awareness.
that's an interesting chart -g-
but the institute for standards of chart gigo-ness,
is trying to keep the charts within a a 600 x 800 pixel range,
The information age is a windfall for bayer,
we are all looking for asprin free charts.
thank you for your understanding.
deuce bigalow, chart gigolo
We set a record yesterday with a CBOE Total Put/Call of 1.36<<<
We also set records while the bull market was peaking in march 00.
sentiment is a sliding scale, there is no absolute in sentiment that will turn a market, the rally off the july lows looks like a bear flag into resistance, with an expansion of earnings warnings, after they had been on the decline since last fall, and now we have expanding new lows, including some big names, it's hard to declare how much sentiment will be enough, the price patterns are ugly:
>
we got some major fractals all over the place like this, directional movement out of this low volume environment into the scary month may be likely,
given the huge extremes of bullish sentiment at the top, and the failure of many extreme indicators (such as arms 10 day 1.5)
we may need an oscar de la hoya bell ringing punch to knock the lights out on this bear.
LG, orcl broke to the downside today on expanding volume from a chopping upsloping pattern from june - bear flag
there is some huge bearish sentiment now - rydexers are bountiful on bear funds, put buyers are loading up, but augiedood's vix triangle break to the downside looks good,
they couldn't even give the market a decent relief rally on the saddam i'm a good guy news, this market is weak.
remember at the top in march 2000 it looked like the reverse of this, it looked like this in mid 99 actually -lol-
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=orcl,uu[m,a]daclyiay[dc][p][vc6...
got. None of those bottoms have held . . . well, we do not have autopsy report on the July bottom yet, but the Semi sector, a leading indicator, is already making new lows as we speak. <<<
i'm not disagreeing with any of that, i'm not talking about a monthly or yearly indicator here and that once a bear appears on the cover of a magazine all with the world will be right,
i already showed in my evidence that the "married to the bull" cover on a major magazine cover on april 98 only caused a multi-month pullback in the bull market - but that pullback was hugely painful if you held,
and as i have said, there have been regular 20% rallies during the bear market on the spx and dow (and more by the high beta nas) at the appearance of huge bearish sentiment on the front page above the fold news stories in the times, and/or front page bear market coverage on magazines, if you are now the popular shorting bear, you would have been smart to cover.
at some point there will be a bear market ending publicity stunt,
We'll have to consult david e. kelley, or steven spielberg, or m night shamlyn for the final SIGNS err i mean script -g-, i think zeev knows those guys and has some inside info =ggg=
Hey rocky, watch me take a bullwinkle outta my hat,
that triangle also measures to single digits,
and there is no guarantee that that triangle will break either way and establish a trend,
we could just flop around in vixsand.
Like I said, in a bull market, the magazine-cover indicator works, but in a bear market, it doesn't.<<<
no, i have given you evidence that it works in both bear markets and bull markets, you just refuse to look at the evidence.
now the turning points may only be on a daily or weekly chart, that doesn't diminish the indicator, it just tells you when the pubilic awareness of the trend is so publicized that it transcends other daily news, the trend is mature and near a turning point, however picking the pivot is not always that easy.
at the 98 low there were half a dozen bear market magazine covers - weeks of front page press, op-ed press, business news press in the dailies about the sad state of the world economy - ruble-scribble, baht-flapt, hang-over seng, that preceded the motha of all bull markets.
the problem with this bear market, is that there has been none of that yet - just a little here a little there, even though we have lost tons more off the top.
i guess that's what makes huge bear markets, when the masses capitulate their fear and believe buy the dip is it, and they can't give it up during the bear market, until the end.
The "bottoms" since March 2000, unlike previous magazine bottoms with subsequent new highs, have been little more than false bottoms <<<<
so what, i'm not trying to say these indicators are monthly or yearly or decade trend changers, just like is said in my post, when the news has reached a crescendo of public awareness the trend is mature,
i'm not going to tell you that trend is 60 min, daily, weekly, montly or yearly, i would have to consult miss cleo for that, but i can't anymore, her 800 # went dead -g-
The last bull market lasted nearly 2 decades. This bear market can last a long while as well. <<<
yes, it could.
dines called the 90's the motha of all bull markets, and this may be the fatha of all bear markets.
we will just slide down the pipe, like we did in the 30's.
when da cheif starts gettin bearish and stops comparing 2002 to 1982 (major -lol-) 20 year cycle my ass.
we may be closer.
Magazine-cover traders' tactic only works during a specific period in a cycle, namely cyclic bear bottoms in a secular bull market<<
now you pulled my sabre tooth analogy, and i think you got a cavity, call 1 800 dentist -g-
nope, mag covers have covered the tops and bottoms (even if they were only daily and not weekly or monthly turning points)
quite accurately, there was the married to the bull mag cover in april 98, that marked the top of the combined nyse/nasdaq advance decline line of the bull market.
October 99, huge fear about interest rate hikes, Greenspan on the cover of major newspapers on the Saturday of the bottom, came up with the "loss of confidence" quote - balmer sezs msft overvalued, the market went bonkers to the upside on that.
there was a bull on the cover of a major magazine in march 2000, (but i don't remember which)
in december 1999 jeff bezos was time magazine man of the year, that topped most internet stocks to the month.
there was a bear on the cover of a major magazine at the march/april low in 01 (20 % rally off that).
there were no bear covers after 9/11, the news at that low so ugly that it was impossible for the financial press to cover the money aspect of it.
7/20 bear market cover on biz week and major newpapers front page news, market bottomed 3 days later.
20% rally.
other people have told me these indicators are stoopid, but they keep working, even if they only work on the 60 min. chart or the daily chart, and not the weekly or monthly chart as some have.
Barry Bonds doesnt get constantly reminded about his strikeouts.>>
don't confuse sports with the financial markets, people may be emotional about their local team, but they are psychotic about their money.
If your gonna be a market timer, you have to get off the stopped clock syndrome, that worked during the 90's, it worked during the 50's, it worked during the 20's,
let's move on, da chief and abby joe are banking on some idllyic concept that has moved on.
this decade will be the bi-polar decade, where everybody is declared a motley fool.
What I am saying is that, because everyone by now knows the "magazine cover" indicator, and taking advantage of it in "trades," chances of such bottoms being enduring is probably remote. <<<<
granpappy bigelow told me to buy when pessimism is at it's nadir, and sell when optimism is at it's penultimate exhuberance (the old buy low and sell high deal)
now there are no guidelines for finding those exact pivots, on a 60 minute chart, a daily chart or a weekly chart.
but in general when the news has hit the major media and is front page news, front page magazine news, the trend is maturing and is old, the public is the last to know about things and they are informed to buy at the tops and sell at the bottoms.
fogetta about people knowing how to trade those indicators (and it's a very very small universe), when there are traders with their head in their hands on the front page of the times, with the coincident crashing dow chart, and a bear on the cover of business week, the people that are aware of those indicators are as just as fearful as the general public and the general trading public and are clicking the buy order with the same high heartbeat as a hungry siberian sabre tooth tiger stalking a rare rabbit in the frozen tundra.
Magazine cover bears only work in secular bull markets <<<
oooooooooh no, then your gonna tell me the 20 plus percent bull move after the bear cover on biz week on july 20th was a mirage, we'll it might be a mirage on a lt basis, but it was there for people to take advantage of it.
there were bears on the cover magazines and in newspapers in march/april 01, prior to a 2000 pt dow rally,
in sept 01 financial stuff was not the focus of the media, nor should it have been, no way.
I have followed magazine covers for a long time, and front page newspapers,
when the major media is covering the stock market news the current trend is near an end, sometimes they pinpoint it.
The market is all about supply and demand, when they are hugely bearish in the major media, or publishing bearish sentiment, the supply has been sold out, and by default there is only demand left, even if it is only short covering.
Well he stopped posting here so maybe he gave up...
You can disagree and dont have to insult... <<<<
we'll my point was that he was a contrary indicator and his posting activity was high during a top, but i haven't had time to read all the posts on this thread,
but i went back and read some missed posts tonight,
i see the court of public opinion was that his posting style wasn't appropriate,
it wasn't just me --g-
If so many people weren't hurt by that stuff, much of it would actually be funny...<<<<
no it's not funny at all, we have experienced something similar, but not to the huge degree, to the dutch tulipmania or the south sea bubble, it has fractured a lot of lives and has ruined a lot of dreams.
what we need to bottom this sucker out is a bear on the cover of rolling stone (just kidding), time, newsweek, and the death of equities on biz week.
If your going to call the markets you have to have thick skin, you have to be able to go against the crowds at times, and more importantly you have to go with the crowds sometimes.
If you are going to make wild calls like dow 16,000 or dow 5,000 you have to be prepared for critics, it comes with the territory, don't confuse critical review, with personal insult, and when the day is done, these words here are a just few light bubbles on an rgb screen.
That book was on the best seller list, along with wade cook's books, one was titled something like Stock Market Dreams??? (where is that guy now, back driving cabs -g-) harry dent's book, there was a dow 100,000 book,
and then there were those internet broker ad's, the best one was Al the Tow Truck Driver who bought an island domain thru discover brokerage -lol-
These were all sentiment indicators that were all widely published and bought into by the public at the top.
Maybe we will need some inverse to the top public sentiment to bottom this market, which will require more than one bear on the cover of rolling stone -gg-
no, i didn't bore him, i'm here to keep him on his abby joe toes and make sure everybody doesn't get fooled by those top timer badges he brags about that he displays on his pumped up chest,
he kept telling me about this wave 3 recognition wave to 16k back in sept 00, i asked him who hadn't recognized the stock market by then???, dumpster diver joe? who could sell his aluminum cans to buy ge.
i've been guilty of being too bullish at times during the bear market for rallies,
but we might be looking for the wave 3 bear market recognition wave according to this chart
http://www.aegeancapital.com/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Swenlin/Decision%20Point®%20Carl%20S...
chief, you haven't posted here in a fortnight -g-, did the huge down day after labor day, put a crimp in your dow 16000 optimism
is that a buy signal -lol-
since your the expert top markit timer, i wanna direct answer, no obfuscification.
deuce "bobby the baby sitting bear" bigalow
However, in the process of moving the price action near the July gap-up, two gap-downs have been created<<<
those may be breakaway gaps from the failed rally into the the big spx H&S top,
huge volume on the turnaround on 7/24, but hugely shrinking volume into resistance.
i won't post any mega off the screen charts with 20 indicators here, because it's not necessary -g-
SUNW has proprietary software and hardware in a world where commoditizing reigns. Their lead in speed is waning<<<<
I believe there were about a 1000 car companies during the auto boom of the 20's, and only the big three made it out of the mess or the 30's to the late 40's.
There are still probably a lot of delistings, bankrutpcies and consolidation still ahead in the tech area.
: If someone wants to pile on the indicators, hey that's their choice. This thread is not about policing everyone's presentation. <<<
that may be their choice, but it may be your choice to walk into a restaurant and break out in song, because you think your an american idol 2 prospect -g-, but not the choice of the people in the restaurant =g=
most indicators are a function of price and volume that are already reflected in the main chart, imho embedding a chart with all or most of the indicators that stockcharts has available is like typing with ALL CAPS in message boards.
limiting charts to one or two indicators that one has more a handle on is more useful than turning up the noise of 5 or more indicators.
that's just my opinion, and that's all we have here in cyberspace - opinions.
Let's see what you got....gg<<<
i came across this chart from cycle pro, it has nothing to do with the possible cyclical bull swing we are in now, but does have larger implications
here's one for you slow stonastics quantanabe, is this a top
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=MMM,uu[r,a]dbclyiay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Ld20]&....
or was the panic into the july low a head of an invered H&S.
which indicators are your favorites?
Let's see what you got....gg
ya well he doesn't post here, so i guess we'll have to rely on da cheif -lol-
no refund, just trying to keep the bandwidth inline.
most of those indicators are superflous and don't add anything.
jmho
augieboo, i enjoy your charts, but most chartists don't give diddly about seeing 10 indicators, and only care about price action,
imho, could you reduce your chart posting to smaller charts with only one or two indicators.
thanks
take him to post 500 on the ol SI clix school and show him the keys to the kingdom..lolol<<<<
nobody has the keys to the kingdom, there are no keys, anybody believes that they have the keys, needs to locked away with some keys -lol-
some times your horses are running for you, sometimes they aren't.
that's all,
when your horses aren't running for you, you need to recognize that quickly before you have to resort to selling beer and cotton candy in the stands for your next grubstake -g-
i'll take a sierra nevada pale ale -g-
everybody has to have a hobby
closed mind, no, this snake goes both ways, your the one with the closed mind, your snake goes to dow 16,000, and sinks it's venom in mr. market.
crikey, doood, you just might not have that australian talent with vipers that you think you do -lol-
tracking those 14 posts means you have a simlar problem -g-
rich 1, why are you such a da cheif, boot shiner.
i first heard da chief claim dow 16,000 when the dow was 7000 that was in 1997, since then the dow has gone up and down for 5 years, basically no where.
da cheif is a new era's age shoe shine boy.
he's not a market timer, his glory came when he picked the pick six at pemlico, he used up all his luck.
we are now in a new economy.
the computer age that drove the 90's bull market is very mature, just like the consumer electronics and the switch to japanese cars drove the japan bubble in the 80's and the that trend matured.
the new economy now is the slug economy, we hope it's the slug economy like the 70's, muddle through.
so howcume i was the only one wat cud doit....snort....<<<
god your ego is larger than texas, let me know when you throw in the towel and go bearish.
paleeze.
>
we'll cheify if you were a bull you could turn that chart upside down, what do you do with reality????
wish upon a dow 16000 star?