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Yeah, I'm just not anywhere near 100% convinced that school is over, yet.
I still don't see a new CFO adding any value, ICFO or otherwise.
I'm not sure he ever used the word negotiations, but even if he did, I think you could just as easily conclude that there were no negotiations as easily as you could conclude there were negotiations. It's certainly not clear that anything happened.
I'm not expecting to get any bounce out of the ICFO, or even a permanent CFO announcement. Also little to no upside from the hold being lifted.
FWIW, the price today is kind of following the market, as unusual as that might be.
Yeah, I just meant it has to go up a lot for me to believe the rally is real. Nothing magical about $5.
I noticed that the PR for today was only on the IR page on the Advaxis web site earlier today, then at some point it got posted on the press release page. I thought something more must have happened this morning, but now wondering if the press release just got wider notice after the market opened because of posting it on the PR page.
I won't be convinced until it goes over $5/share.
If that happens I might start to believe in miracles.
Clearly something is up, more than this PR.
Yep, the opening pop is pretty much gone now.
I'm beginning to wonder if any of the possible good news in the next couple of months can really make a difference. NEO dosing will simply be a confirmation that at least things got started, not exactly the world's greatest news, but better than the alternative.
There you have it, lost everything it gained yesterday.
Volume has been pretty pathetic, not much liquidity here any more.
It does save some salary costs.
Unfortunately I don't think the hold being lifted is going to matter, it's a case of it was bad news when the hold was put in place, but it won't be considered very good when it's lifted.
Sure looks like the rally early last week was a sucker's rally.
I don't really disagree with you about DOC, but I'm also not so sure at this point what happened when DOC was ousted. For all we know, DOC wanted to do the new offering back then and the board said no and canned him, thinking that they could have TL make a business deal. Maybe that all fell apart towards the end of last year, so the BOD really did start to look for a new CEO, etc.. Just one possible theory, but pointing out that it's unclear to me who was really at fault over the last year.
I don't know what hail mary filing you are talking about, I was referring to the first dosing of NEO.
What about the $5 by end of June, not much runway for that one. Are you saying that will result just from NEO dosing, assuming that happens, or something else?
Don't get too excited, it's not even a 5 day high yet.
Are you saying the manipulation/short attack ended in March? If so, why do you believe that?
I guess I don't think the time frame is really arbitrary, the time frame is kind of dictated by the state of the business - the mount of cash in the bank and the burn rate, etc.. Something needs to change in much less than 12 months.
Agreed, there's always something the CEO can do, to say there was nothing he could do in 9 months is a major cop out.
Exactly, which is why all the manipulation theories are ridiculous. This company burned through a ton of cash over the last year, much of it executive compensation, has had three CEOs in 12 months, and we wonder why the stock is in the tank? There is still potential, but the mismanagement over the last couple of years is stunning, and that's why I thin Ken has to show something different is going to happen ASAP.
I think we need to give Ken some time, but something different has to happen in a matter of many weeks, not many months. Different could simply mean making more marketing value out of what is happening now, further reducing costs, new development agreements, etc.. Staying on the same course for the next year would be a complete disaster.
You could very well be right, like I said $30-50M is a best case for 2019, it could also be $0. Bottom line is I don't see the share price going anywhere near $50 based on EMA approval of AXAL.
I think you're being incredibly optimistic about the value of EMA conditional approval for AXAL. My guess, the best case is they might have $30-50M in sales for 2019, that's really only enough to keep the ship afloat, not get the stock anywhere near $10-$50/share. It's hard to imagine AXAL having enough of a market anytime in the near future to get the stock to $50/share. As Dew has said before, ADXS is mostly a play on NEO at this point, and maybe to some extent HOT, but without a partner to help cover the costs HOT is not really going anywhere.
So $55M at the end of May means they have to address the cash situation? I wouldn't go quite that far. If they are down to $40M or so at the end of August, then I think it's to the point where they have to do something, although they might not be that low if other milestone payments come in during that time, etc..
I agree, and we need to see what Ken can do at ADXS, but if 2-3 months from now it's more of the same things as we saw from TL, then I think I am out. We need to see some quick changes, I don't know exactly what changes, but the same old thing clearly won't work.
I think we need to give the CEO a little bit of time to see what happens, but he needs to move much faster than Lombardo. Even though he's not really a stellar pick for the job, we may get something of bounce just because they no longer have an ICEO - that had directly implied uncertainty. If the new CEO can quickly show he's going to do things differently, good things might happen.
It's a little bit disappointing that they could not even update the leadership page on the web site concurrent with the press release. Not very impressive to still have the old leadership on the web site.
Agreed, but sometimes they might want to show that the new CEO was involved, or at least approved of any agreement. However, this would only be the case if a deal or agreement was already in progress, if there was nothing, then we still have nothing.
Kind of grasping at straws here, but it's also possible any agreement was delayed until after the new CEO comes in and is set to go, so although a buyout now seems less likely, an agreement in the near future is very possible.
I wouldn't say it's likely, but it's still certainly possible that some noticeably good results come out of the NEO Phase I trial. Even though the primary goal is to find a safe dose, at the same time they certainly look at the results. Even if just a few patients have a verifiable response, it could make a difference.
Down about 11% in 6 trading days.
I have no idea how these few little things can give you 100% confidence in a buyout coming any time soon.
I really don't get what you're trying to say here, but among other things TL was not brought in as the ICEO, he was promoted to that after DOC was let go. My opinion is that they could not afford the cost to find someone else.
Exactly! More of the same.