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CSCO and INTC defying gravity. Volume not spiking. The broader market pausing, oscillators resetting. CSCO and INTC gonna let 'em catch their breath and then lead 'em higher?
Disclosure; long a big chunk of CSCO.
edit; Woohoo, CSCO @ 20.00 !
< have you no shame >
That's what I think every time I have to muddle through yet another political post.
CNBS says, "come on in, the water's fine..." If we go green again, it's more torture now for the shorts, torture later for the bagholders. IMHO.
Not trading this market, just holding a couple longs.
Still looking for the exit sign. My instincts say this can't go on, but the charts say it could. Da Boyz keep luring in the shorts and then making 'em cover. Given the volume, that may be ALL that's going on with this market. I'm still holding...
CNBS pumping tech; 2 stories on INTC, PC sales looking better than expected, analyst's call for rotation out of energy into tech....
Tech/semi hype + 2 week tech/semi run + waning tech/semi volume = stealth distribution?
edit; oops, now they're talking about Banc of America being cautious on tech. My bad. I still think CNBS is the ultimate contrary indicator, and I'm looking for them to pound the table on tech as the signal to sell.... IMHO
The QQQQ and SMH have been nearly straight up the last 17 trading days. DJI, SPY, and IWM pulled back and then rejoined the party during the last 5 days. So, according to Decision Point, we have participation, which is a bearish climax component, but not volume expansion, which we need to confirm it. The arrival of volume would give us essentially a blowoff top. Is that what you're expecting?
<or a move up followed by a reversal>
That's where I'm placing my bet. That is, if Fido has any QQQQ shares available to short. They didn't Friday at the close.
Interesting. Program trading appears to introduce a modicum of predictability to the markets in that at certain oversold or overbought levels, you know the computers are going to gang up and take the other side of the trade. But then you look at INTC over the last 3 weeks or so, and wonder how program trading could keep such a big issue at such overbought levels for so long...
I wonder if program trading is just disguising the latest mode of market manipulation. And remember, there's talk of going to an all electronic trading platform for all the exchanges. The birth of "the borg"...?
Fido has zero shares available to short in the QQQQ. Hmmmm...So much for my eod strategy. HAGWE, time for me to go have a life!
True, but can a leak take 17 days to dribble out? Somebody's fingerprints are all over this. The Hedgies? Fido? The PPT? AG? The Chinese? Cramer?
It can't be some company-specific news leak, 'cause while INTC is up 1.11%, NVLS is up 1.47%, KLAC is up 1.33%, even AMD is up .88% Yet, the B2B was .80... What is going on ?
Look at 6 month/daily chart of INTC. Parabolic candles, and rsi/oscillator readings as overbought as a large cap stock can get. Someone call the SEC.
Wow, look at the volume on the QQQQ and SMH. 1 hour to go and we're just now at half the average daily volume... on an options expiry Friday. Monday is shaping up as a BIG MOVE day.
Just stocks. I screen on fundies, trade on technicals. Haven't done a screen yet this quarter, but last quarter's qualified traders were XXIA, FFIV, PTEC, AIRN, MIPS, and a thread favorite, FORD. I don't have the temperament nor the steely nerve for daytrading, but I've done quite well with the more cautious, swing trade approach.
Edit: Oops, forgot to mention, big fan of EMC and CSCO, I think they're the big winners in the tech battle for survival. Also Like IWOV and SNWL as value plays.
There, that's the full disclosure.
<just watching>
Me too. Got a couple of swing trade longs, but no new buys for now. I'm smelling a run sometime later today, but I'll use that as an opportunity to bail. We're just too overbought for me, and I don't have Zeev's brains or Hotlinktuna's nimbleness.
You're having a heck of a morning. Great job.
INTC closes green again (you still playing that X-files music?) Expiry Friday or the following Monday are shaping up as the likely time frame for the end of this run. In the meantime, I lucked into another .14 on CSCO, .21 on SNWL, and .28 on IWOV. Now it's time for one of those Coronas.....
Took my hand off the sell button. No volume, no top today. Tomorrow will be interesting. A frothy expiry day might be the perfect place to hide a high volume top. We'll see.
P.S. thanks for the Max Pain link, Joe.
"They" gonna drop the QQQQ to 36 tomorrow? Short the close!!
Anyone know what Max Pain is for QQQQ's? eom
SMH green. Come on volume!!! eom
Tomorrow's expiry isn't it? I can't even begin to predict what might happen...
Here we go. SMH just flashed a buy signal on the 15m chart. If it runs up into the close - and takes the QQQQ with it - on a nice volume spike, maybe we'll get a candle we can finally sell on.
That's some seriously cerebral math stuff, Jim, but I like it! I just think IWOV is about two earnings reports away from being a great story, but it's good to know there are some complex technicals backing it up!
Watching a 10 day/hourly chart - and I just can't get a screaming sell out of it. So close on the QQQQ...
Hi JimQuinceH; Got your pm, can only respond here... I don't have a target on IWOV, but I'll hold it as long as earnings, the balance sheet, and cash flow continues to improve. They compete with Documentum (now a part of EMC) and Filenet, both of whom have overshadowed IWOV in the recent past. They're now proving that they can more than hold their own with these guys, and throw in their buyout attractiveness and you've got a heck of a value play. Another story I like for all the same reasons is SNWL. Take a look at them. The way I see it, the risk/reward factor for both stocks is just too compelling to resist.
QQQQ and SMH; nice opening run, but rsi and oscillators are easing off "overbought" levels without a corresponding pullback in price. Waning volatility accompanied by weakening volume has me expecting another run. We can't just poop out here with a whimper, can we? All IMHO.
It always takes the Street awhile to catch up to his analysis - which makes him frquently "early" - but I've found that he is always vindicated. He's one of the few financial voices I always take seriously.
VTO report shows Dow and S&P 5 day RSI at "Overbought" levels, and the Naz at "Very Overbought" (85.8). I'm thinking the PPT may take today off...
I remember Jimmy Rogers (former Quantum Fund guy) pounding the table a few years ago about how Fannie Mae was a collapse waiting to happen. It was his number 1 short.
Something to consider - he also pounded the table a few years before that about how INTC at $60 was a sure sign of a tech bubble. The anchors on CNBC laughed at him... Today he's pounding the table about commodities; a fifteen year bull story according to him...oh, and the anchors on CNBC are laughing at him for that one too....
I've been watching that too. Very unusual. I keep expecting a turn, but so many of the indicators I follow; RSI, Money Flow, Oscillators, etc... are staying overbought without ever flashing an outright sell. Came very close today, but the lack of volume going into the close kept me from pulling the trigger. Still long a big chunk of CSCO for now, still holding a bit of IWOV and SNWL as long term value plays.
<just answering asshole posters>
With all due respect, there wasn't much assholiness going on here until you showed up with your unnecessarily bombastic and provocative tone in msg# 392861.
Maybe you just run in circles where this mode of expression is the norm, but this thread really tries to avoid the ego-centric communication style.
You're obviously a smart guy, I just think you'd attract more bees if you tried using honey instead of vinegar - at least on this thread. Just my .02.
15m charts say another move up coming. Volume's hinting that this thing might just blowoff into the close. What'ya think?
If I remember correctly, you're a P&F'er aren't you? Apologies if I got that wrong.
You always say, "don't short a snorter". What about when the
entire market is a snorter? Dow, Naz, S&P, Rut, all running hard now. Let me know when you see the whites of their eyes...
OT - That's freaky. I had no trouble reading that paragraph.
Maybe I should try that with some of my charts!!!
EPC at .44 , QQQQ rsi at 80, SPY rsi at 80, oscillators pegged at extreme overbought. All we need is a hint of the semis cracking, and everything's gonna dump. All IMHO
Short term trade or calling a medium term top?
Merrill props up the techs, HPQ's announcement of layoffs is interpreted as good news, QQQQ and SPY charts looking way toppy.. I'm itchin' to pull the short trigger, just need one more spike in the SMH to make me do it.
Year over year core CPI is 2.2%. Yield curve says inflation is not a problem. Real Estate analysts say no spike in rates coming. Bill Gross says the 10 year could go as low as 3%...
I don't know, but that sounds like a lot of confirmation of Greenspan's "inflation contained" stance. Given all that, I might feel pretty safe with an adjustable rate mortgage. I think it's the rampant speculators who are most at risk of getting ripped to shreds by the mysterious Mr. Greenspan.
warning: mild rant to follow...
The battle for world domination is fought in the financial markets, and there's no way America is going to let its leading position slip away by naively allowing truly "free markets" to gang up on us. Every financial asset is manipulated to some extent, I just want the guys doing manipulation on behalf of my financial assets to win!
Go Alan !
AMAT does not impress. HPQ beats, but guides down. Neither will stop Da Boyz from taking this market wherever they want tomorrow. I'm still seeing the setup for a spike up headfake on volume, and then 6 weeks (or more) of grind down.
For today, my CSCO was down .03, my IWOV was up .01, and how about a standing ovation for my SNWL? up .41 ! This $5.70 stock has almost $4 per share cash, no debt, is cash flow positive, and today came out with great earnings and guidance. They also restated 2004 results, with the numbers being adjusted UPWARD!
Sorry for the tout, but I have to focus on whatever makes me feel like I know what I'm doing, and the general market as of late sure hasn't helped that cause....