Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
IMO wait til $2.25 area. No reason to buy now if it is going to bleed lower.
Here we go again...
Here we go again....
There has been a rumor on this board that a secret letter from the SEC exists. Although no one has ever seen it, do you know anything about it?
Even Ackman bought more pfds this last quarter in case of a recap that favors pfds over commons. If such letter existed, I am sure he would have it.
Cheers to another sweep today. A resolution is still months away and the PPS will slowly drip like it always does with no news.
“And then it’s how do you raise that capital?” he said. “You can do it through retained earnings, but there’s probably going to have to be an alternative source of capital that’s brought into those entities.
According to reports, Otting told FHFA staff in January that the amount of capital Fannie and Freddie would need is “probably somewhere, based upon their business models today, [in the range of] $150 billion to $200 billion.”"
That is a lot of dilution coming to the common shares. The price will not rise significantly based upon this. This is why Ackman has picked up even more shares of the "other class"
"looks like ackman's preferred to common ratio is 52:84 so he is 38% pref."
looks like ackman's preferred to common ratio is 52:84 so he is 38% pref. pic.twitter.com/SiPgLbYpON
— Fanniegate Hero (@DoNotLose) March 26, 2019
Cheers to another sweep today. A resolution is still months away and the PPS will slowly drip like it always does with no news.
“And then it’s how do you raise that capital?” he said. “You can do it through retained earnings, but there’s probably going to have to be an alternative source of capital that’s brought into those entities.
According to reports, Otting told FHFA staff in January that the amount of capital Fannie and Freddie would need is “probably somewhere, based upon their business models today, [in the range of] $150 billion to $200 billion.”"
That is a lot of dilution coming to the common shares. The price will not rise significantly based upon this. This is why Ackman has picked up even more shares of the "other class"
"looks like ackman's preferred to common ratio is 52:84 so he is 38% pref."
looks like ackman's preferred to common ratio is 52:84 so he is 38% pref. pic.twitter.com/SiPgLbYpON
— Fanniegate Hero (@DoNotLose) March 26, 2019
"“And then it’s how do you raise that capital?” he said. “You can do it through retained earnings, but there’s probably going to have to be an alternative source of capital that’s brought into those entities.
According to reports, Otting told FHFA staff in January that the amount of capital Fannie and Freddie would need is “probably somewhere, based upon their business models today, [in the range of] $150 billion to $200 billion.”"
That means dilution and any hopes of triple digit share prices are quickly dismissed. Depending on how large and quick the raises are, FNMA might see double digits or high single digits.
There is no logic behind posts claiming $100+ when we have the words and context of the people pulling the strings IMHO.
"Personally I think Commons have at the least 20 times upside or $50 share. " I am curious, do you take into account the warrants as Ackman does? What kind of capital raises does this valuation entail? Any details would be appreciated.
I find those numbers to be a little too high. Especially since it "looks like ackman's preferred to common ratio is 52:84 so he is 38% pref."
looks like ackman's preferred to common ratio is 52:84 so he is 38% pref. pic.twitter.com/SiPgLbYpON
— Fanniegate Hero (@DoNotLose) March 26, 2019
"Personally I think Commons have at the least 20 times upside or $50 share. " I am curious, do you take into account the warrants as Ackman does? What kind of capital raises does this valuation entail? Any details would be appreciated.
I find those numbers to be a little too high. Especially since it "looks like ackman's preferred to common ratio is 52:84 so he is 38% pref."
looks like ackman's preferred to common ratio is 52:84 so he is 38% pref. pic.twitter.com/SiPgLbYpON
— Fanniegate Hero (@DoNotLose) March 26, 2019
Mods- please sticky.
Someone dm the twitter account nsfraudbuster and ask them to release the much needed warrant letter.
This week should add some more good buying opportunities as it continues to drift lower.
$2.25 should act as support.
No, there will be so dividend next month IMO. How can an under capitalized company issue a dividend to commons before jr pfds.
If they do, pfds trend towards par but they will not.
Back to the drawing board.
Heading lower. Have orders in at 2.25. See you soon.
Is $2.50 the bottom or will shorts continue to make money as it bleeds down to the $2.30s?
Should be a great week to go short IMO.
Groundbreaking analysis you have provided. Thank you for taking the deep dive into the ticker and really doing some serious, painstaking DD.
Shocked this hasn’t been posted more. Guess it does not fit the agenda.
Last one out, turn off the lights.
Well look at that, shorts got the memo again today. Will it be four days in a row tomorrow?
They got the memo today as well. Short fmcc.
That they would make money on Friday by shorting?
No Calabria confirmation last Friday and now the SIFI thingy was a total dud. What is next? TIA.
Well the SIFI thingy sure was a let down for all us average joes. Back to the drawing boards.
Then it would be time to unleash the beast and let the world see the super secret SEC warrant letter.
You need to change your search. The top secret SEC warrant letter, only seen by 3 people, would cause a lot more buying if you were able to locate it.
Would be a shame is the “letter” was just simple market manipulation.
Mods, this is a post that actually deserves a sticky. There is real analysis in these estimates rather than just spit balling.
TIMBER
Fantastic analysis regarding FNMA.
https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/trade-ideas/videos/a-new-fannie-mae-play
You just proved the pfd investment thesis is more sound. To get rid of them, you have to pay them par value.
How many variables are there with the common investment? Anyone that is 100% common is insane and is playing Russian roulette.
I am glad you have moved on from the secret warrant letter that plagued this board for months.
And how are they going to raise money? HINT- dilution.
Thank you for this detailed explanation that is based on math rather than blind hope. One of the best posts to date.
Mods, please sticky.
That would be great news for P holders. Receive par for all holdings. Guaranteed return whereas commons still have 10 variables that could either see them reach 10-15 in the next 5 years or be diluted into oblivion.
Which sounds like the better investment?
I am rewatching the hearing. If only he would have mentioned the average joe plan, we could have been green for the day like fnmas.
Oh well, I’ll just keep blinding hoping the gov will do the right thing.
Amigo. You have been saying ITS COMINGGGGGG for about a year now. Just give it a rest.
Don’t let facts get in the way of a good story. There is still no proof that the warrants are illegal despite 100s of claims.
Anyone remember the secret sec warrant letter? That rumor sure died down quickly after years of false promotion.
Hello Chess,
You stated that "The government has said they dont intend to exercise the warrants"
When I asked for your source you responded, "Maybe this will help. Its a communication between Obit and myself. Obit seems to agree, but does not agree with ALL my reasons: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=127772844 "
Do you have any concrete evidence of the government saying this or are you basing it on an exchange between two anonymous posters on IHUB. TIA