Maybe... with cash account what are your limitations? Wait for funds to clear on a closed trade?

This isn’t accurate. You can absolutely have a margin account and daytrade more than 3 round trips a week

Well... had an order in at 4.00 I never expected to get filled in the last half of those 1/4 from 1.20. $3.25 avg from $1.20

Nothing left but some 2/15 260c I’ve been holding since 2.60 along with the near worthless 12/28 239p from 1.80

No tears for me on the put hedge getting burned. Today was a top 5 day for me in 2018 from a P/L perspective.

Closed half these 1/4 250c @ 2.50 from 1.20

Keeping the free half into next week.

Still holding 12/28 239p hedge (1/4 pos) from 1.80.

Closed the 241c @ 2.30 from 1.70 on the spike to 241.50

Still holding 1/4 250c and the 12/28 239p hedge @ 1.80

Keeping these puts as a hedge. Added 1/4 250c @ 1.20

Added some 239p @ 1.80

Sold my 241p @ 3.00 from 1.70 and bought 241c @ 1.70 with the profits.

Whipsaw is the new black


Will buy back some 239p near the close or on a bounce...

What’s up risk? Hope you enjoyed the holidays.

Feels like a BBOM rally is in play, but the boys will likely fleece some suckers before takeoff imho. Possibly a double bottom before ripping some faces off with a gap over and go go go!

Best of luck and happy trades !

That’s a thing

There’s a history to this... and it’s pretty darn bullish going back a handful of presidents back to Nixon

Presidents making statements like this (Obama, Clinton, Reagan , Nixon etc) marked the bottom of the market during term and the fwd 12/24/36 month returns have been pretty stout.

This board has also seen the bear crawl out and thump their chests like they haven’t been wrong for years because of the last 90 days of price action. This = bullish.

They’ll be calling for 210-220 for months like they called for a break back below 180 from 2015-2017

Super thin volume.

What’s up Risk? How have you been? Haven’t seen much from you since the fall... hope you are enjoying the holiday.

I tend to agree, this feels like an overshoot to the downside near term. That said I’m largely cash and don’t feel compelled to risk the profits of last week on unconfirmed setups.

Happy trades... and holidays

I agree with that ultimate downside target in Q2. I’m looking closer to 2235 as my 2019 low.

All just guesses from the gut. Should be a great traders year in 2019

This is all a set up for a 20% move higher the next 15 months. Anyone who thinks SPY 300 won’t print in 2019 has too much noise in their ears imho

Hey man... I never claimed to have the crystal ball. Trading on price means things are always changing as you know. Volatile markets usually overshoot to the ends of its’ ranges.

I still stick by the broad strokes of what I laid out and I made plenty of coin getting the direction correct and rolling puts.. we should still test 2700-2720 before I leave for Turks and Caicos (1/7/19).

Could go higher - just as this went lower; I just look for the middle of the sandwich when trading. Not perfection

Happy Trades (and Holidays) NW2!

I added to these 1/4 BA 335c at 2.00 today. Average is 2.60.

Rolled a bunch of puts... this is easy sell the bounce territory. That said I have some January calls that owe me nothing and could expire worthless.

Closed all puts just now. Looks like we are bouncing but I’m going to watch a bit. No need to press big wins in a market like this.

Agree.. could be some follow through , but the Fed bandaid has been ripped off. Should have that priced in by tomorrow if not this afternoon.

Cash heavy and looking for an entry!

I picked up some BA 1/4 335c @ 3.25

Would be nice. I’m sitting and waiting for reaction to 253 this week. Could be resistance , could be gapped and cleared. Patience will pay

We close above the FEB lows / 253 and we could see some serious buying into year end. I’ve been calling for a big pivot on this Fed day... still in play if we can close over 1% off the lows

Yea... I cashed calls this AM and a few puts around 253... I’m up today and back to cash mostly.

I’ll take it on a day like today.

This is the flush... we move higher after this week imo

Yep.. I really missed the moves the last few days. Clearly you can’t read

I only wish I had two pairs of arms so I could give you four thumbs up.

And the close comes in at 2555.50!

I’m in some 12/1 257c at 2.00 (1x) and still holding 1/4 269c with my average falling to just under 1.00 as the position moves to (8x)

Rolled my 12/17 SPX & SPY puts a few times today for huge profit and used a portion to roll to 12/19 254p @ 1.80 near the close. (3x)

My current positions all owe me nothing after today’s put payouts, but I have 100% of said profits at risk!

That’s what I’m thinking... would like to see us bounce and close above 2550. I’m still holding some hedge puts, but they’re expiring today and I don’t want to roll them to Wednesday as the short term over sold is crazy.

And 2550 hits as well... I do NOT expect us below 2550

2577 - check!

2550? Not yet, but 2558


I’ve causally been adding 1/4 269c


Also traded 12/17 2590p from 8.20 to 26.00 and am currently in 2570p from 10.00 that I’ll keep as a hedge.

Huge profits today and any calls I have are covered 2x

So far so good... things unfolding how I hoped / thought.

Closed the 12/17 260p @ 1.90 from 1.40

Looking to add some 258p once premiums calm down a bit.

Also added a little to my 1/4 269c position.

We have a falling wedge into major support. The 255/257 area I spoke about last week and that NowWhat was nice enough to chart for me has been touched. That said , its the last fed day of the year and very possible to see a new intraday low.

Happy trades

Definitely agree with the last part... can’t wait for the technical bear market (-20%) to work the downtrend bc by then it’s largely over.

Late January / early February should mark the bottom barring something unforeseen. At that point we are closer to 2450 SPX and trading at a PE we haven’t seen in 5 years

Pretty much nailed it! Thanks for the visual.

Thoughts from the Gut:

Looking for volatility and a near term low on Monday as the fed gets dovish heading into year end.

I fully expect 2577 to print and likely hold. If it can’t, 2550 will mark the bottom intraday at which point buyers start stepping in aggressively.

I’ll be a buyer / adder if 12/21 263c and 1/4 269c as I expect 2720 gets touched to the upside.

All signs point to a punt on the rate hike... I could see a dip Monday, then rip back over 2700.

After that it’s anyone’s guess. China stimulus, China trade war, trump foolery, etc has me thinking we fade between Christmas and new year. Then fade further as January proves to be tough sledding in terms of positive catalysts.

Just my $.02.

“I made 300%... didn’t you? Super obvious chart set up”

You must be a blast at parties

Closed half these VXX 41c at 1.45 from .99.

Still holding 12/21 266c @1.45 (1x) and 1/4 269c @ 2.50 (3x) along with 12/17 260p @ 1.40 (2x)

Enjoy the weekend folks

Sorry... the were 12/17 263p @ 1.47

Sold at 3.05 near the close. Rolled 1/3 of the profit to 12/17 260 @ 1.40

Also added SPY 12/14 263p @ 1.47