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Geez... It's been all over the place today. 1 min chart on $NDX turning back down. I just added another 1/4 position on QID @ 39.43. That's all I'm buying for today. May have to look for an exit if they get past $NDX 1986.
Fox, do you think that's it for the day on the upside?
This is what I'm thinking, but could be wrong so let me know what you all think. The Daily shows that we are still in a downtrend. If you look at the 60min QID chart we are still in that uptrend channel and we also broke through to the upside of the symmetrical triangle. Finally looking at the 15min $NDX the descending triangle is still in play.
My bias is still down, until proven otherwise with a breakdown of both of those triangles.
Is this deja vu or what? Seems like we keep visiting that QQQQ ~48 pivot/level.
Hmm... I just got in @ 40.25 on QID. Backtest of the Descending 15min triangle. I guess we will see what happens. Still pissed about yesterday's stop out.
Be, what are your thoughts this morning?
15min descending triangle just broke to the downside. Target 1903?
Crap... had a trade paralysis this morning. Still trying to figure out how to get in.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=30099096
The markets are pretty choppy this morning.
2xer, I have my Downtrend line intersecting around ~1986. So you may be right about 1990 give or take. I'll have to play it by ear tomorrow, and this time I need to follow my entry rules. I broke 3 out of 5 today. Not good, too eager to trade.
Gleno, I am going to try to position another QID entry tomorrow. Hopefully better than this last one. I think there may be a possibility that we close that opening gap on the QID 39.38/QQQQ 48.54/NDX 1972. But, the overall trend on the Daily and 60min is still down for now. SPX and DJIA are pretty bad. Both, can't even get up to the Downtrend line. I am thinking MID and QQQQ will bounce at some point close to that DT line and then more down, so I will put my stop above the DT line and this time not too tight.
El crapo... Stop was too tight. Still looks like a 15min descending triangle. (Edit - I am going to sit it out for now and see what to do about tomorrow.)
Crap... I'm out for a small loss -.25. Stop was hit at QID 39.95.
Gleno, is it just me or does this look like a descending triangle on the 15min? High=1993-1948=45 Target=1948-45=1903? Is that possible? (Edit double bottom territory?) Not sure but I have my tight stop in place on my crappy QID entry today.
"The descending triangle is a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when descending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of an uptrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, descending triangles are bearish patterns that indicate distribution."
"Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and subtracting it from the resistance breakout."
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle_
Gleno, it looks like we're just consolidating now. I have a tight stop on, just in case the boys decides to ramp it.
Gleno FWIW break of the lower channel on the 60min QID is ~40. (EDIT Wow wasn't paying attention to Oil. USO is up +2. Was down early this morning.)
Gleno, I'm looking at the 60min QID chart and we're still in this uptrend channel. I guess we will find out which way it goes in a few minutes. But I'm staying long until the QID breaks down below the bottom channel.
For the QQQQs? If so yes. That's what I have for scottrade. I have both open ETrade/Scottrade, Etrade has been giving weird large spikes all morning. (It recently stopped.)
Be I need to be a little more patient like you. I guess it just takes practice and more experience. Anyhow, this is the new 15/30min uptrend line for QID.
Heh... I guess that answered my question about closing the opening gap.
Wish me luck, not the best of entries. Yesterday would've been much better. But, I just bought some QIDs on this bounce. Hopefully the boys do not decide to close that gap down below. Stop is in place.
John, which index, btw do you have a link that I can look at? TIA.
Gleno, good call. Wish I had some money yesterday to open a short position. I now have some cash from the trade settlement from Friday. But I don't want to chase any short positions at the moment will wait it out for bounce to get in short.
BTW - US - EIA Petroleum Status Report (wk6/13 , 2008) 10:30 AM wk6/13 , 2008
Foot, interesting chart about the Yen/$SPX relationship.
"If you look at the above chart you will see how perfect this inverse relationship was over the past year. If you take a close look at what's been happening since June 1st, you will notice that the Yen is trending lower but so are stocks! The stock market should be moving higher as the yen moves lower but that's simply not happening.
In my opinion, if stocks can't rally with a falling yen, I take that as a bearish signal for the market. What's going to happen when the Yen rallies? Will stocks collapse? I think we might actually see that."
http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/#cooliris
Foot, $SPX ~1380ish is what I thought they need to get it through in order for the current downtrend line to break. I don't know if they can do it with the low volume. But you never know the boys can start buying at anytime. I think if SPX gets close to 1380 I'm going to go long SDS for a short position with a tight stop @~1390, since SPX and DJX has been way weaker than MID and NDX.
$INDU is still hurting, can't get past 12300.
FYI - tomorrow MS (Morgan Stanley) and Fedex. Fedex is probably not gonna do well with the cost of gas/oil.
BTW - tomorrow's #s as well.
MBA Purchase Applications (wk6/13 , 2008)
EIA Petroleum Status Report (wk6/13 , 2008)
FYI Earnings tomorrow - We have MS (Morgan Stanley) and Fedex.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20080618.html
2xer, just out of curiosity, what time frame(s) are you looking at? 5min, 15 or 30 or 60? TIA.
Hey Be. I like reading your posts since you have a different take/spin and it works well.
48.55 just failed, next stop 48.31?. What happened to Gleno?
Be, I am now agreeing with you the 5min possible Inv. H+S looks like it has failed. It died around 48.85 for the QQQQs. (Edit - I would put a stop at 49.)
The 60min chart is in a downtrend.
Rab, it looks like we have just been in a trading range since 12noon today. Consolidation.
FWIW, the uptrend line from Friday 6/13 on the 60min charts for the QQQQs has been broken to the downside today around ~12noon. So if I were trading, I would be short as well because that is now the overall trend at the moment. But I just wanted to say make sure of course you have your stops in place since the 5min charts has been doing nothing and has been stuck in a range for the past 3 hours.
I'm currently flat, but shorts be careful out there. QQQQs may make a 5min inverse H+S pattern.
QQQQ 5min chart. Watch the ~48.87ish neckline. Break of that upwards and a measure move of ~49.17
Also... depends on which timeframe.
Gleno, my 15 min uptrend line on QLD broke this morning. Currently backtesting the broken trendline.
Net Commitment of Traders
Looks like Commercials added more net longs to their positions. Bullish% increased from week of 6/3 to week of 6/10. (Edit - Hmm... I'm not sure if this means much since the data is almost a week old. Unfortunately can't figure out what happened from 6/11-6/16 until tomorrow.)
SP +17035
ND +2102
Gleno. I am in cash. I loaded the boat on Friday and Today on QLD and sold all my positions during those two days. I would've taken a QID position when I sold QLD but I'm totally out of cash.
I got in trouble in the tech bubble burst fiasco so I had margin disabled on my accts. So now I have to wait til Wednesday for the settlement date from Friday. (Typically I make sure I have enough cash throughout the week by trading 1/4 positions, for better money mgmt.)
BTW - forgot about the U.S. Open today. Only saw the last hole. Man tiger won without playing for 2 months after knee surgery? Sheesh...
Lefty, thanks. That's one of my biggest problems which is getting out of the trend too early. I am trying hard to use Blasher's suggestion, looking at the 5min and 15 min. Then look at the 60/daily/weekly for overall trend. I also decided to re-read Dr Alexander Elder's book that I got 5 years ago "Trading for a Living" to help reinforce key concepts.
Gleno, it's been a good 2 days up with the counter-trend rally. Lots of numbers coming out tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be surprised if people start taking profits at the close.
http://money.cnn.com/data/irc/index.html?view=1&focusdate=6/17/2008&miniCalFocus=6/17/2008&cal=50&
lefty, good point. I just looked at the $MID daily charts. The MIDs are still in a good uptrend. 50dma is still over the 200dma. Do you have a price objective? Looks like an initial resistance at 880.
Be, just sold the last 1/2 of my QLDs at 86.18 from the morning dip @83.40. Probably left some on the table, but I'm done for the day and will sit and watch what happens next. But I think we are getting close to a down move.
Gleno, Oil just closed the morning gap and then some. Getting close to that NDX 2000 mark. I think that is the reversal.
Heh... Yeah it's a bit more up here in Seattle, filled up yesterday at 4.49 for reg. Just sold 1/2 of my QLD position.
Oil dropping like a rock in the past 10 mins. They may try to close that big gap from the open.
Ollie, I'm in QLD on the dip this morning. I guess we'll see got a tight stop on.