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hey Ernie, I saw the post for PCX for the "US Trustee Fights Patriot Shareholders' Committee Bid"
Then I saw your reply post
I was having issues trying to grasp what it was referring to. From what I can see that it says, it is saying that Patriot is trying to block a committee for the shareholders? Is this what it is saying?
If so, I guess that would be very bad then. I haven't seen any update on it.
What is your thoughts on this?
I also haven't seen any update on the decision to keep it in NY or move it to WV. Last I saw was the Judge not convinced moving it was a good idea, so I was thinking it was going to stay, but haven't seen the final decision.
So curious to get your feedback on all of this. I've been doing what you said and keeping patient as best as I can
hope you are doing well!
thanks!
p.s. I found the full article here that has everything
http://ificg.blogspot.com/2012/09/us-trustee-lobbies-against-patriot.html
It doesn't look good at all.
I guess the big question is, how can PCXCQ do the same thing as GGP?
Is it even possible?
What needs to happen for PCXCQ to be able to make the same thing happen?
as awesome as that is, that is definitely very rare to happen. Would be nice for it to happen here, but very doubtful.
Unless of course the CEO is a man of his word when he did say they will protect the investors. With BK it appears its every person for themselves. I understand they want to save the company and such, but they don't care about the commons. They only care about themselves.
I'm curious though, how did GGP keep it? Doesn't the judge decide on what happens? Or does the Judge pretty much say how much the commons gets after everyone gets their piece of the pie and they are last? Or can the company say at emergence of BK they will just keep the shares so they don't do a pay out to the commons at the end?
Yeah, I also agree that wasn't very bright.
Noticed price was all over the place today, thought that it would have kept spiking, but guess not.
would like to think this would shoot up once they announce it will stay in NY. But, then again, is that considered 'good news' to where it will respond by shooting up? Tough to say, but then again I'm definitely NOT a person that knows BKs that well
Guess we will see soon as I would expect a decision soon
saw someone has almost 400k share bid at around the .13 mark, an then moved it to .135. Looks like some of it got filled.
I'm guessing someone is trying to buy up as much as possible as they are going to announce its going to stay in NY today, and this should shoot up the price way up.
better get in now before it blows up
of course this also means that its not set in stone that they WILL cancel the stock upon emergence.
This is all put out there to cover their butts in case they DO.
obviously we never know until it actually happens. Scenarios could be:
1. don't cancel stock and everyone keeps the shares, etc
2. cancel and no one gets jack crap for current shares, they issue new shares
3. cancel AND they re-issue shares of the new stock for current holders
There may be another to this list, but those are the top possibilities. I think we all know that most likely they will do the "cancel and no one gets jack crap" and they issue new shares.
If they are a "man of their word" then nothing will happen with current stock, OR they will either re-issue it for new shares for the current holders, OR they actually pay out the current share holders (per Judge I believe) with whatever equity is left (after lawyers get their cut). That is, of course, if anything is left over at all (debtors, etc)
I'm hoping for you Sam, they don't cancel and give you new shares, or at least pay out the current shares (hoping it will be $2 or higher)
ouch. I'd laugh, but I'm in the same boat. As of right now, I'm only in 1 ticket (duh). I had been watching 30 different tickers in which almost all of them are in red most of the time. it's time to find new tickers
Of course, once I'm able to make some out of here, I'll hunt down better tickers. Don't mind them in red in a sense I jump on them on their low so when they do go up, I'm able to be in the green (even if they are in the red)
yeah, a couple of friends told me that. Don't do it with anything that should be your mortgage money or bills money. This was pretty much my work bonus and tax return money I got later this year. I decided to put it in an account and start trading with it. I could have been up huge, but so far not so good. You can see my concerns about what I'm in for now.
I have no problem waiting another month, or even longer, if it looks like this may at least double my money (from .26 to .52). Sure I would love for it to see $1, but I may not even take that chance. Just be happy I got my money back and was able to double it. Not looking to push it unless it just keeps climbing and it goes to $1 very quickly, or even higher. By then I would have definitely sold, thank lord geebus I got out, and then move on
I would definitely keep my eye on your site here and what you do, and learn as much as I can. I've learned some great things that will help me in the future. One of the big ones is, don't put all your eggs into 1 basket
Well, it's NOT that much, but its all that I have to invest with. When I jumped in at .26 a month or so ago, I thought it was going to be in the .30s or so shortly after. I figure I was going to ride it a little bit and get out at certain spots and then keep what I had in for profits to see if it goes higher. My long term per se was it was going to eventually get to $1 or higher. But, getting out at specific points along the way "just in case" it does dump down again
problem is, it NEVER got went past .26 and I've been down ever since. So I opted to stay in until it gets back to .26 and get out at even, or keep being patient and wait till it actually goes much higher. My plan is still the same, get out a certain area, etc. I just didn't think it was going to take this long. I didn't think it would get to $1 quickly either, but figured it wasn't going to keep going as low as it is
But, as you said, no good news means this won't go up either.
the money I used is money that, if i do lose it, doesn't mean the end of the world either. Its money I had saved to invest and hoped to make money off of, just like anyone else.
True, very good point.
ok good info, thanks for sharing and reassuring me
I wish I could have added a few times. Luckily I'm learning a lot from this so next time I jump on something risky like this, I know not to jump all in. Take steps, and keep adding on with each dip that happens to increase my shares, and lower my avg.
I also hope that it does a good jump if it stays in NY. Something tells me it will stay in NY as it will be a lot easier for the company itself as a whole to proceed forward with the BK. Of course, this should have jump a few times, but it never has. That is the only thing that has me concerned is it hasn't yet. Hopefully it will when they do the announcement next week.
thanks again!
Hey Ernie, hope all is well with you. Vacation I had was pretty good, wish I came back and saw the PCX was in better shape. Today is doing very bad. Thought with recent articles and news it would be doing WAY better.
What's your thoughts on the recent going on? Think this is just going down so it can pop back up after the announcement that it may stay in NY or go to WV?
Watching it here and there is pretty annoying, especially considering I thought it would be in a better places (e.g. .30s) by now.
Just wanted to see your thoughts on it and recent drops its been doing
Thanks again!
thanks for the note, LostBall. Sorry I wasn't around to see this sooner, I was out of town.
I also agree that 500 million is a lot to burn though. I don't think a team of lawyers can be justified on burning through that much, even in a year. That's just insane. But then again, anything can happen. I would say being only 100 million left over is "worse case". Having the equity committee will be huge and will be key for it to get back on track.
Hope all is well with you and look forward to the future!
fully agree. Perhaps this a reason why it was up decent today, or perhaps this will help it shoot up even more tomorrow. who knows. we will see I guess
Excellent, I was just about to share this I was reading. Pretty much the same thing:
http://news.yahoo.com/court-strikes-down-epa-pollution-rule-151452419--sector.html
Thanks Ernie. Yeah, I'm about to block Stan as well.
Hope you have a good time on your vacation. I know I will
Love my boy, he is a blessing. I've gotten into this stuff mainly because I want to be able to make a good chunk of change so I have the ability to take time off when he gets older to spend time with him. Not to do a "sad story", but coming from divorce parents, my mom worked all day and when I lived with my dad, he worked 3pm to 11pm. So I only saw him in the morning.
It wasn't until my Junior year in high school where my pops took an early retirement so he could actually spend time with me and watch me play sports. I don't want to wait that long for my boy.
So that being said, I'm hoping to be able to make some good money (smartly!) so in the future, I have that chance to have time for him. I'm not expecting to make millions and retire early. But, I'm hoping to be able to at least have the money to be at home more. Time will tell. The journey has just began.
Good idea on the sell 1st. I was looking at putting that sell limit order in so IF it blows up, at least I will sell some of it at the price and hold the rest for higher
thanks again for everything and I'll hit you up when I get back.
BTW, IF this will indeed drop way below again, I might as well sell out right now, wait for it to get that low and buy back in. That should hopefully lower my avg. So if you think the others are right and this may get down to under .10 or even .05 or lower, then I may just say sell and wait for that, and get in at that point.
Hey Ernie! I should have posted my question on here, as appose to the other board.
Anyways, apparently Stan person loves to keep repeating himself and thinks its being propped up. What is your thought on that?
With the decision coming soon for the decision on keeping it in NY or move to WV, do you think it will matter either way? Will price move significantly in either direction based up on the decision?
I'm about to take a little vacation creak this week and won't be back until next Tuesday. First one in a long time. Have a 7 month old and been non stop with him, work, and of course, this stuff
I figure I'm in this for a long time, so being away for a week won't matter. I'll have my broker's app (Fidelity) on my phone in case this does pop up and may look to jump out in case it wants to fall back down just as quickly.
Look forward to any and all feedback as always
thanks again
Hey LostBall, you still with us? You've been quiet. Any recent thoughts?
Consensus is if this moves to WV where the unions are, this will tank even further. I don't think it will matter too much. I know WV will definitely favor the unions, and being kept in NY may be a better shot for commons.
Of course, the most recent ramblings on here (mainly someone that posts the same thing over and over and over) is that this is being kept propped up. I was thinking that this was going to be heading in the upward direction soon, and could see a nice bounce up after they announce where this is going to be held in September
Thoughts?
Ernie, anything you want to add, always look forward to your feedback
thanks
makes perfect sense. I guess the other company that was able to emerge with their shares in tact or were issued "new" shares got lucky
This is an excellent description and now I'm getting a better idea of how it will work out then.
many thanks for sharing the detailed info, 56chevy, very good stuff. Learn something new every day
Well, the theory was sound and good idea for both parties. They didn't foresee Obama cracking the whip really hard on coal.
If that didn't happen, who knows where PCX would be now, could be the complete opposite.
If a Republican gets in office next year, the future for coal will be much better. I won't think they would just release all of it and undo everything that Obama did, but I would think they would ease a lot more restrictions and all that against "coal" in general. They won't be out to make the hippies happy and not concern about pollution as a liberal democrat.
will be interesting to see after the election on how all the coal companies react. If obama is re-elected, could keep going south. If its a republican, we could see it make a huge rebound just on that alone.
Here is wishful thinking. Was reading some of the Yahoo boards (I look over there once in a blue moon, but generally avoid it as there is no good monitoring done).
Someone mentioned being in GGP stock. They got some shares while it was in BK. When they emerged, they kept their existing stock shares. Price at GGP is currently at $18.50 a share
What are the chances that PCX will do this when they re-emerge from BK?
That would be another question as well, WHY would they re-issue shares and not just keep it all the same so this way they don't have to do all of it all over again. Everyone stays in that was already in the first place and after BK, they keep it and things start to go back to where they should be
I know, wishful thinking, but trying to "think outside the box" per se.
Look forward to others opinions. I know most will say it will never happen, and I'm sure you will be right. But this would be smart of the company to do. but then again, that's MY opinion.
you are the man, much appreciated for all the info. I would definitely LOVE to get out past 500%, that is for sure. I definitely got in a little high, but at the same time, I'm a little happier than I was before when I was in at 1.22. I was able to avg down to .31. So yeah, I still got ways to go to get back to even, but as you said, just keep waiting this out and hopefully my .31 can become 500% or higher.
I was hoping to get that in a few months (been in it a few months already) but it looks like it will take longer. No worries, with your help/guidance, as well as LostBall, I finally accepted that this won't be a quick turn around. Obviously, if I get 500% or higher, then who cares if I have to wait another 3 months or even longer. I have no problem with that. Some people are lucky to make 100% or more in a year.
thanks again, I'm going to keep on doing more reading and DD. Trying to become much better in this and hopefully some day I will be able to read this much better (like you) and be able to make some good money on it.
Oh yes, fully agree. Unfortunately, it's definitely a different day and time. However, I would "like" to think that they will find a way to restore it to those that are holders.
I also believe others are right about doing this to get rid of the unions so they don't have to keep paying in the long run, which in turn defeats the profits, which of course then in turn shoots the stock down if they can't make profits without having to keep paying unions and such.
Also looking at the 10Q looked pretty decent IMO, so not sure why the stock didn't shoot up. Volume has been very low.
I'm definitely NOT an expert so I can't figure that out. Still doing lots of digging
yeah, I went through the whole thing a few times and I didn't see anything bad, so I took it as a good thing. I didn't see the stock react, so that really sucked.
I'm liking that it was NOT as bad as I thought it COULD have been. If it was really bad, I'm sure it would have fallen even more. I see the volume has died off significantly. So it looks like its just going to chill out for awhile until good news comes, but who knows for sure. I thought perhaps it would have jumped on the Q, but it didn't.
thanks for taking a peak, Ernie. I know you are busy and got other things going on, so I appreciate a 2nd opinion.
Really good article on rating and what they think the outlook looks like for PCX:
http://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/evaluate/news/basicNewsStory.jhtml?symbols=PCXCQ&storyid=201208161701RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_WNA3649_1&provider=RTRSNEWS&product=COMBINED&sb=1
Even though the rating is a "D", they have updated it for the DIP financing. key point is how they believe that the overall is a "B" in terms of PCX being able to pay back the DIP financing in cash when in the end.
Not sure about any of you, but where I live, it has gotten a little bit cooler than normal. Could be a sign of an early winter, and perhaps a longer and colder winter. WAY too early to tell, but so far the pattern I'm seeing just for the next week or so, its down 5 to 10 degrees cooler (I'm in Atlanta GA area).
anyone got any feedback?
I also went over the full 10Q for the quarter. Looks like its down like we all thought it would be. Wasn't sure if it was going to update the price per share and what it would be, but nothing was there.
Just have to keep on waiting. Either way, article looks good in terms of their confidence with "B" that everything will emerge from BK.
Next big questions will be, how will they treat the current share holders, and how will they be able to prove they are a viable business if demand doesn't increase. IF we do get a sooner winter and cooler weather, then good chance it will. It also depends on the demand from China and India. I also don't think they are even in the works of being bought by anyone.
thoughts?
no worries, Ernie
Appreciate you taking any time to respond. No big hurry
I also hope its one of those, Sam. I know you've been in this for awhile and was in pretty high
I know others may not give a crap, but I do. I really hope you get most or all your money back brother.
nothing but hope for you and everyone else that got stuck high in the stock.
Agreed. Some others were saying they "may" have known about the BK, but if they sold, it would have been insider information and big time trouble.
The fact that they didn't sell post-BK announcement is also a key indicator that they may not have known anyways.
There is a good chance that they think they are screwed and holding out for the best. OR they are already putting together a legal team for them.
Does anyone know of a time this has happen where they did form their own legal team? Such as, does it typically happen quick, or do they normally take 1 or 2 months or longer for them to finally move forward with their own team. You would think IF they have $59 million in holdings, which I'm sure is now worth only a few million, they would be using big time lawyers to fight to get as much as possible back.
Could there also be a chance that they know the CEO is going to make sure they are taken care of?
Or is there a chance that CEO has told them they will get new shares when they emerge from BK?
Can they do that with just select few, or is it all or nothing. meaning, if they do this for a big company, they have to do this for all share holders.
If none of this is even the case, then once again, it is a good question as to why they have not sold out yet. My only guess is they are going to do their own team, or they could be working with other institutional places and forming a legal team to work together to get their money back (or most of it)
hey Ernie! hope all is well with you. Didn't hear back in regards to my post about your thoughts on the recent 10Q and all that.
Also saw this for yesterday on Fidelity's site:
Aug 15 (Reuters) - Moody's rates Patriot Coal DIP revolver B2 and DIP term loan B3 (Caryn Trokie, New York Ratings Unit)
I have also been looking at this from time to time and noticed that its now being updated more and more recently:
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/PCXCQ/tab/8
I see a huge amount is still being owned for shares and some of the major places (e.g. Cascade) is holding a ton still. Thoughts on all of this and why they may be holding? Instead of just dumping due to BK. Perhaps they are "hoping" for buyout or they just aren't aware it's in BK? I would think they would know it's in BK since it's been over a month.
Thanks again Ernie!
Saw this on Fidelity news for PCXCQ. Anyone know what exactly it means?
Aug 15 (Reuters) - Moody's rates Patriot Coal DIP revolver B2 and DIP term loan B3 (Caryn Trokie, New York Ratings Unit)
looks like its being updated more frequently. It changed since I last saw it and now has an updated date of today, and the numbers have been changed big time.
The one thing that caught my eye is that almost 53 million shares are being held. 53 million out of 89 million is pretty good IMO. I would think that is a key as if PCX decided to destroy all shares and not give back to investors, it would be huge.
I know they can do whatever they want, I fully understand that. But you can see some huge numbers for institutions are still being held. Cascade as $56 million in value.
Will definitely be interesting to see how this keeps playing out
Anyone think they are holding off to see how this plays out? It doesn't look like they really sold. Could they be holding for a buyout or something else?
thaks
by the way, looking at this again, it appears it is up to date as of 8/12/2012
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/PCXCQ/tab/8
Agreed. I was reading through the .pdf file on the 23rd and its going over pretty much everything. The next big one will be in Sept where they will decide if this stays in NY or goes to WV.
good info Robo, thanks for sharing. looks like we got something going on tomorrow, so it will be interesting on how that plays out. It looks like a pretty big meeting, and the next big one is on the 23rd another biggie.
outcomes may shoot this in either direction. it all depends on the rulings and what it boils down to.
Quiet....too quiet. Something good brewing? Lets hope so.
my bad, I misunderstood. Yeah, I was also thinking that info was old and not updated. Not sure how we can obtain the more up to date info. Does anyone on the board know?
Or is this something that is only released every month?
Yeah, I would think mutual funds may have dumped out. If not yet, they will soon.
If larger financial places are still holding, then they will dump soon, or hold off and make sure a committee is formed, or they hope it comes back higher before selling. who knows.
thanks for good info and thoughts
Ah, so you're thinking they dumped everything then?
Or were you referring to them trying to get a committee going?
what about the larger institutions?
Anyone know if this is still up to date?
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/PCXCQ/tab/8
Someone was kind enough to share this awhile ago. I noticed that the top Institutional Holders and top Mutual Fund holders haven't really changed since a few weeks ago when this was shared.
Would be interesting to see if this is still up to date and that they are still in the mix. If so, you would think that the top institutional holders and mutual fund would be gearing up for a common share holder committee. I'd hate to think they would just let all those shares and money just disappear with zero return.
hey Ernie, they posted the 10Q and 10K not too long ago.
I'm reading over it now. Thoughts on it?