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Bump tomorrow and hopefully a slow rise to $13.25 by the time they announce earnings. If we can get another qtr that exceeds expectations, we continue to go up.
Got them at $12.05
We are stable.
As I get ready (very early in the morning) to open our restaurant, I stopped by to give my 2 cents. Yes, I would love for this stock to go to $20+ but for me, the limited downside and high div is what I am looking for.
For the last 5 weeks, we have traded between $12.00 and $13 and will continue to do so until either big upgrades come out or NGL management announces some surprise on earnings. NGL announces on 8/1 so we will see but my reality is that if we stay above $12 and I get to collect a 12% div, I will be happy. As I stated before, we will continue volatility as long as this stays a trading stock, which I suspect it will. Today's range is $12-13, maybe after 8/1 it will be between $13-14. Who knows, I do plan on buying 1,000 shares on Monday if we hit $12.10, which would not shock me. I will sell the 1,000 at $12.45 and trade it until it stops working.
Traders will continue to trade this stock until it stops working. Why wouldn't they?
My opinion differs because I will take a stable 10% div all day long. For NGL, all that is required is to maintain the current div and trade at $15.
If they raise the div and we trade above $20, I will take that too
I hope you are right too
I would like to make a million.
I have an order in at $12.10. I would not be surprised if the machines get it this low but if they do, next buy is at $11.80
Thanks man, I appreciate it
Jugs,
Do we expect NGL to come out with balance sheet news?
I am on the west coast taking care of my father in law so I have not been up on when NGL will announce or provide update.
Thanks
s
Just guessing but I suspect not. I think we will bounce above $13 and then below until we get a solid upgrade. Without that, we would need to close above $13.80 and even then, profit taking could bring us below $13 but we would have a new trading range.
Again, just speculation. Really, not much more than an educated guess.
The article was not written with any kind of conviction, just a negative tone with some "wait and see...." language. If the stock moves up, he can back peddle, if it moves down, he can take credit.
Foolish and a bit pissed is my guess. I suspect that they are new to the stock and not on this site. If you have been in the stock more than a few weeks, you have seen these swings, again and again and again.
My plan was to use a trailing .75 drop. Could have held out but stuck with my plan. We have preached volatility and it will continue, it is a gift, take it.
500 @ 12.45.
tourist season is here so I get real busy at our restaurant and do not get to post as much.
Good week for us. We will still have volatility but our trend is looking great.
Have a good weekend.
A close of 13.10 would be ok too
Good approach. I have little dry powder so have to pick my buys. If I only had a modest positions, anywhere in the 12's is good.
I am with you. I am setting a buy order of 200 for 75 cents less from current trading price. I figure 75 to 85 cents is the most they could bring it down on a profit taking day.
Very interesting and loving it.
Oh sure, volatility is still the name of the game but higher lows and higher highs makes me happy. Whenever we get a nice gain, I always think about selling and then wait for the pullback but I am confident that if I do it, we do not pullback. I will just hang on with both hands and ride the waves.
I am very happy with the extra 2,400 shares I picked up in the last two weeks. Last weeks pullback was a really nice gift, if you bought.
I hope nobody was surprised, several of us posted on pullbacks. we will all work together to track what we think the temp trading range week be
Today was a gift. Those of us involved in NGL have seen it before. Someone likes to push the price down so they can pickup some cheap shares.
I am almost out of dry powder but will pull some together if we hit $11.50. Not sure how likely that is.
any buy in the mid to low 12's is good. I only have a few dollars left so I get to take shots at a lower price.
months from now, you will not care if you paid 12.10 or 12.50.
Got 200@ 11.95. I will put another order of 200 in at $11.75.
This is a real gift. Taking advantage of it
That is funny, I just bought 200 @$12.20. Now I will put in an order for 150 @ $11.95
I will put in an order of $12.10 tomorrow morning in case we drop at the open. If we stay flat tomorrow, I would like to pick some up at the end of the day if it trades around $12.40.
Put in an order for 200 @ 12.20. doubt I will get it but we will see
I like it.
Low volume will allow some pushing around of the stock. I think I will see if we can get to 12.15. May get lucky
If I had bigger balls, I would try and pick some up at $12.35, give or take a nickle. I did put in an order of 150 at $12.05.
Let the games continue
Agree with everything. I would like to put a fine point on dealing with the wild swings and strongly suggest stoploss not be used as we can swing $1.50 easy. I currently have a buy order for 250 @ 11.65. I will keep a small buy order in, just in case we get a big drop on any given day. Generally it will be $1.10 to $1.25 below the previous close.
how about the close today?
Jugs and Pete,
Thanks for the comments, I appreciate you guys.
I try to share my thoughts and ideas because I have seen this stock manipulated hard. The traders pushed the price down to the low 10's and you could see the panic (or stoploss kicking in). It bothers me to know that the small investor gets pushed around and unless they have people pointing out the facts, it is hard to hold the course.
Big picture for me, NGL management made positive steps 2 qtrs ago to reduce debt and the lastest qtr, they reduced debt even more, had good earnings, the div is safe into 2019 and we have insider buying. As they say, an insider may sell shares for many reasons but they only buy for one. Two insiders made large purchases.
Between now and the next qtr earnings we could easily float up to $14+. Knowing the div is safe will provide stability in pricing but we will still see volatility. It would no surprise me in the least to see us hit $13 and see profit taking, slamming us into the mid $11's. We saw profit taking when the last earnings were announced and it left us scratching our heads. If you believed in management and the stock, you saw it as a buying opportunity. With that said, it took me a couple of days to really embrace the opportunity and act.
I think NGL is a rare opportunity, because even the reasonable worst case scenario is making me money. The way I see it, the reasonable worst case scenario is that we get in the $14 range but next qtr disappoints (for whatever reason) and the stock goes back to where it is today but I still get a big fat 13+% div. IMO, the more likely scenario is that the qtr does not disappoint but does not excite us either, we fall back to $14, collect a fat 11% div and float back to $15. Or, less likely but still very possible, we have a blowout qtr, stock goes to $17++, we collect our .39 div and wait for the inevitable div increase to be announced.
One thing I have learned is that stock analysts (especially the blog type) are rarely brave or bold in calling the stocks they like or dislike. NGL did disappoint many and was an easy target for analysts to "look smart" by jumping on the "beat NGL up" bandwagon. Even now, instead of looking at the last qtr results and admitting that perhaps, NGL is turning things around, they will either bash with hedging ("NGL management always misses BUT if they .....) or they will remain silent, waiting to see what other "experts say" or most likely, wait for the next qtr results before calling a shot.
To me, a real expert does a thorough analysis of the company, environment and 100 other factors and makes the call. It you need to see 3 qtrs beat before giving a thumbs up to a company, you are not really an expert.
Just an update.
Over the last couple of days I was able to pick up the 2,000 shares for an average cost of $11.48.
I love the insider buying.
have another order in at 11.25
bought 250 @ 11.525. starting my new 2000 share position.
I am not sure but.....
My plan at this point is to add up to 2,000 shares in the $11's but hopefully in the mid to low range. I have been giving this some thought and the more I think about it, the better I like the idea of treating these shares as a new position, to be held for 3 div payments and then get out of the 2,000 shares, keeping my other 9,000.
My thought process is simple, we have a slam dunk div for several qtrs, support is around $11.15, the downside on the stock is limited and the current good news is not yet baked into the price or we would be closer to $13+ (IMHO). Too many still bash the stock and the experts still do not want to admit that they undervalued the stock and did not appreciate what management was/is doing. Its hard to bash management and then turnaround and admit that management was taking the correct action.
I still anticipate volatility but I think every daily selloff just compresses the spring more and at some point, the traders and stock manipulators can only hold the price own so much before the spring releases. We saw this the other day when we went up a $1.50 (or so) only to end the day flat, but the next trading day we ended up .90. Yesterday they tried to sell it off again but we ended flat. This action released some of the downward pressure and as jugs pointed out, we could end up today.
I do not know my exact entry point but anywhere between $11.25 and $11.50 would make me happy. If we go above $12, I may wait for a pullback but with upgrades coming, we may not get a pullback into the $11's. I would also not be surprised to see some additional insider buying.
I am not telling anyone else to buy, just telling you what I am doing. Honestly, if you would have told me that after insider buying, crushing earnings numbers, greatly reducing debt and confirming the div will be maintained, that the stock would still be trading in the $11's, I would have laughed.
One other note: If I am able to get the shares, I will probably sell the $12.50 or $15 call options (not sure for with month).
As we head in to the weekend, I just wanted to say"Well done" to those of us who have been taking this ride together. The trip is not over by any means but we will hopefully ride this to $20+ and get that steak dinner.
After yesterdays pullback I tried to transfer funds into my trading account so I could try an pick up some more shares sub $11 but it was not meant to be. It will be interesting to see how quick we hit $14. With that said, we will still see volatility but I think the professional (term used loosely) analysts will keep the negative talk to a minimum.
I do not generally make buy or sell recommendations other than to post my own trades but if someone on the sidelines asked me if it is too late to jump in, I would say it is not too late and this would be a solid entry point. Back in November, the CFO bought 20.000 shares around where we are now ($11.60) and the CEO bought 30,000 shares in March at around $11.20. They have much more info than we do, so buying shares at around the same price point as the CEO and CFO, not a bad play.
Upgrades are coming.
I like your attitude
I lied, I just bought 200 @ 11.275. I will await upgrades and such. This will probably be my last purchase but I just had to do it.