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2010. At the earliest, AND if lots and LOTS of "ifs" have been cleared up.
BB you are joking, right?
Art, indeed they "know who is selling." Of course they do.
No offense but that's a very naive question. Would you go to the SEC and report yourself ? Besides, ERHE certainly doesn't need more attention from that institution right now.
No kidding...
Yikes.
Not good (Sheffield isn't the type to shy away from - or hide -positive developments.) But thanks for the update.
Incorrect Procon. There has been substantial coverage in the international press of the very UN-American way we have been treating the Chinese bid to buy Unocal for weeks, including by some major papers and news desks that have nothing to do whatsoever with China. Clearly "open markets" and free enterprise are only OK when it's not OUR market.
You are also incorrect about the Chinese "trying to build anti-American sentiment." They have absolutely no need for doing this since our own so-called leaders have done such an amazingly good job of it over the past few years. What the Chinese - and many others - are doing is merely exploit this sentiment, which is fair game.
Enormous damage has been done, one of the indirect results being that it's hard for a reasonable mind to see how the "Nigeria will provide 25% of our oil in a decade or so" mantra could now be remotely connected to reality. Big Oil has established an appalling record in Africa over the past three decades with relatively little oil being extracted in return for massive damage to the environment and the health of the locals and close to ZERO improvement to infrastructure, education, etc. Ed Daukoru's recent comments speak volumes about that.
While a man like Gandur evidently understands the issues and makes decisions accordingly (and yes, very successfully), and while I have no doubt that Offor will profit handsomely "no matter what" from these new developments, what will become of our retail investments in tiny American ERHE in this new scheme of things is anybody's guess. We have lost Devon and Noble, two aggressive, highly-capable mi-tier partners that walked away from billions of barrels of oil, and 5 days away from PSCs our stock is at 40 cents, about 1/10 of what it should be (and as a friend says, there are 700+ million reasons to be worried.)
Once again the "market" obviously knows someting we don't know.
Nigeria is now a part of China?
Dang, when did they move it Procon?
You learn something every day...
400 million dollars, that's what LOL.
Bruno1, got a link for the offorax ?
Nothing strange about that, just open your eyes...
Update on one of Offor's many ventures:
http://www.vanguardngr.com/articles/2002/features/insurance/in126102005.html
Seems our godfather can be loquacious when he wants to. He definitely has great BS ability (would make a wonderful member of the US Congress, wouldn't he? Small world...):
"Offor thus thanked the management and staff of the company for their unalloyed commitment and thei undaunted belief in the company.
He said was optimistic that the company has a bright future ahead of it more so with the pace at which He, at this juncture lauded the federal government reformation which he said would provide room for a healthy competition in the market place and within the nation’s economy.
" The economic reform programme of the federal government coupled with the strategy of fighting financial crimes by government will further provide a platform for a level playing ground with the economy. This will enhance the image of the country and would further attract foreign iunvestors thereby providing more opportunities for the industry".
Note the following also:
"Most impressive was investment income of the company..."
Did he name me as the source LOL?
BB may you be right!
Anything short of that and we WILL lose lots of money.
As to Stockguard, I'm surprised at your comments. Could you point me to ONE piece of valid, verifiable info or DD he posted? Not that it's a big deal, but I couldn't find one. Besides, the level of his thinking and writing was just downright scary. I'd say he is either working in the main or a large pumping crew or he's a small fish in the Insiders Pond (PXD? Long shot though.)
As to this comment "I was ultra surprised to see the JDA layed out a time schedule on the PSC process" well, I wasn't. To my eyes the reason is very simple. Both countries, especially STP, want the sig money, and THEY WANT IT NOW. The latest hoopla about the "investigation" in STP is simply a way to show the world bank that STP has their own "transparency" thing going on, think of it as a nice coat of clean varnish on an old crappy piece of furniture (same here with our politicians of course.) It may result in a few small players being kicked out, no big deal. Either way I fully expect XOM to be dominating the GOG by scarfing down a couple md-tiers within one to three years.
Yes, so far the JDA have kept it in the ballgame, and I also agree that it can change overnight. In fact I would be downright AMAZED if these "standard business" items were properly taken care of:
1) The PSCs are signed on schedule
2) MORE importantly - and as others have rightfully pointed out - the JDA and/or companies adhere to Obasanjo's transparency bull$hit and immediately publish enough of the details that independant, OUTSIDE oil analysts (and in turn the investment firms that rely on this) can make a decent evaluation.
3) Right on the heels of the above, ERHE actually shares with us shareholders a business plan complete with timelines, goals, financing, etc.
IF this is accomplished we do have a shot at getting the SP by Xmas perhaps not where it belongs but in the $1-2 territory. But given what we all have seen Offor pull so far, I'm not holding my breath.
Just being realistic, friend, that's all. And taking it like a man.
Anyways, have a look at this character's 20 posts. Really, read them...
I have owned quite a few stocks where the SP was taking a beating. Taking the blinders off amongst investors usually does NOT translate into talks of "hard line" as long as the company takes necessary and reasonable steps to communicate with its investors and let them know how their money is being used. With ERHE it has been anything BUT the case.
Both my DD and my gut tells me something's not right. PSCs signed or not, barring a major stake being taken in ERHE by a responsible and accountable US company, we retail investors have a good chance of either being taken to the cleaners, or sitting on very dead money for years which isn't much better.
Just my two cents.
Already off this board after only three months of pumping? I'm disappointed.
And what is it you say, THE SUITS ARE COMING TO GRAB YOUR HARD DRIVES, EVEN AT HOME?! Interesting.
You "will not respond to anyone here"? How convenient.
Classic.
But hey, good job at telling some exactly what they want to hear. Your assertive posts since July 9 most likely prevented MORE unloading by those die-hard longs who were sitting on the fence and were inching the wrong way.
Let me guess... Yours and your group's money are out of ERHE too. And the big BANG is really gonna be a big CRASH. The bleeding since the June Awards has already turned into quite a bloody bath indeed. Those who know ain't talking, and those who don't know squat do a lot of posting...
Some of us stand to lose large amounts of money. I hope I'm wrong, but what I've seen lately is DEFINITELY not encouraging.
Well Xmas is right around the corner. I guess we'll know soon enough now, won't we?
A ERHE stock buyback is one of the many things I alluded to in a recent post when I said that one can only observe that Offor is NOT doing any of that.
ERHC doesn't have any excess cash on record, you are correct (In fact, one of the few items on which I agree with Mongo is that the company has an appalling record of burning cash at supersonic rates.) That does NOT mean that Offor does not have the means to buy back say, a hundred mil shares or two. FAR from it, according to at least one of my sources. There is always a downside to something of course, but the upsides would be just unbelievable, starting with making him a multi-billionaire (a real one, in U.S. dollars LOL) in short order. So... why doesn't he?
Draw your own conclusions.
Art, I know you mean well, and I certainly do not count you as one of the wolves, but may I respectfully suggest that before attributing what happened to the SP over the opast two years to "psychopaths" or people who merely post on message boards as a whole, you speak to real stock experts and/or investing pros.
Why are we at 30-40 cents with a barrel of oil selling for 70 bucks, RIGHT NOW, in 2005? The pros I spoke to tell me that there is absolutely no way this stock, POST AWARDS, should be down there unless there are serious problems which only insiders/manipulators know about. If that weren't true, by now this stock SHOULD have started seriously ramping up, even before PSCs are signed. That's the way the market works. Part of this upward move would have been because those small, nimble, aggressive and oh-so profitable institutional investors would have jumped in a big way (yes, some of them would have done this WAY before PSCs or drilling, because they SPECULATE, that's why they make so much money.)
They have NOT. Why? Certainly not because they don't know about ERHE, or because they haven't done their own DD (BTW, in this particular area, retail investors like us simply aren't in the same league) but, I'm told, most likely because they don't like what they see, or what they smell.
Simple. Brutally simple.
BB, "You state you'd even welcome a buyin at a price below the current sp" is NOT what I meant, or wrote.
Here is what I wrote about this issue in my last two posts:
"If by year end ERHE is at $5 bucks, where it should be (revised down from my own original $7-10 price projection), I will be happy to eat my words. But I don't think so."
"Buy-in? Takeover of some sort? I never thought I'd say this, but at this point I would welcome ANY such news (yes, even by a company like XOM) even if the price they offer per share is much lower than what the stock is (read: should be under responsible management) worth."
As you can see there is a BIG difference. And for the record, by "much lower than what the stock is worth" I mean much lower than "$5."
I would consider letting my shares go as low as for a couple bucks. Heck, given what we now hear (NBL drilling in 2007... Anadarko's rigs getting ordered for a 2008 delivery... What's next?) I think this would be an excellent investing decision.
And you can bet that many longs who just lurk would be more than happy to get the heck out of ERHE at even one stinkin' lil' buck. You KNOW they would. Me? I just have the guts to say aloud what others really think.
But again, I SINCERELY HOPE THAT YOU ARE RIGHT AND I'M WRONG.
BB the "logical reasoning" has long been worn out, I'm afraid to say.
As to the "much larger picture" that would be THE reason why I invested in this stock in the first place, friend (that's OK, I'm not offended.)
That much larger picture has enormous potential, we all agree on that, BUT in the market, potential always turns into reality through a series of developments which simply have not materialized with ERHE.
Will they ever? Possibly. Remember, I am the one who posted several times that Emeka Offor *COULD* become another Bill Gates. Could is unfortunately the operative word here, and in a very big way.
Should I or anybody have to wait another 5 years to see those developments begin to take place FOR A STOCK THAT SITS AT THE EPICENTER OF ONE OF THE PLANET'S MOST IN-DEMAND RESOURCES, and do so with blind faith in a company that has been treating its shareholders like a giant cash cow (I won't mention the other words that come to mind when I discuss this stock in person with other longs)? HELLOOOOO, I don't think so.
Buy-in? Takeover of some sort? I never thought I'd say this, but at this point I would welcome ANY such news (yes, even by a company like XOM) even if the price they offer per share is much lower than what the stock is (read: should be under responsible management) worth.
You wanna know what's also quite revealing, perhaps more than all other kinds of stuff? That the company's shenanigans have twisted things so much that a decent person like you would end up being perceived (by highly-experienced investors looking into this stock) as a pumper (which I know in my heart, you are NOT.) I thought about this a lot and I say that when perceptions get THIS SKEWED, the situation is not healthy and there's real, deep trouble.
""Was ERHE a smart investment of my money? How's about we both answer that question at Christmas time this year." Well I'm not into bets, but I will accept this friendly wager. You're a gentleman, and you and I have both agreed and disagreed, always respectfully. You're on for that Xmas deadline.
Odd as that may sound, I'm afraid I'm gonna win (read, LOSE anyway, because in this case we both would end up being even bigger losers... Time IS money, and in a very real sense we have already lost considerable amounts of money since there are many other stocks that HAVE materialized into doubles or multiples these past few years, including as I think Oilman pointed out, many in the currently hot oil/energy sector. You'd think ERHE is in the business of bananas, or sugar, or something... but NOT oil.)
I hope your knee is getting better. Be well.
Thanks HP. Eventhough it may hurt, Honesty is always the best policy. In the case of my post, believe me, it hurts a LOT, and I'd LOVE to be wrong.
Elaborate? Lugheads1957 gave us a few excellent examples, kindly have a gander at his/her post. Let me add that all this "milking the cow" crap started long before EO moved the shares to the Caymans. I too "looked the other way" pre-awards, and I was wrong, plain wrong. Unlike Mongo (see my DD on this character), I didn't get millions of dirt-cheap shares for whatever services rendered, I bought each and every one of them and as oilman (again!) stated, we all bought WAY too early. A very, VERY poor decision and a lot of dead money.
I have owned dozens of other stocks where after a while you can clearly tell that the management and the shareholders are in the same boat (i.e. on the same side.) With ERHE - which by now I know all too well - one gets that awful big-Knot-in-the-stomach that it's actually pretty much the opposite. There are MANY things Chrome Chairman Emeka Offor and ERHE CEO Ali Memon could have done to alleviate this sentiment, or better yet, make sure it didn't happen in the first place. As I have stated before, I am now of the opinion that they aren't part of the solution, but part of the problem. We often hear that the market will tell us... blablabla. Well it's true, and as much as I hate to say it, the SP - and all the shady BS that has kept it in the crapper - speak VOLUMES.
"unreported massive selling of shares"? EO isn't dumb enough to do that from the "main account", even from the Caymans. Offor may have beat XOM & co on his turf, but he knows full-well that they have a small army of lawyers ON STAFF and you can be sure that they are scrutinizing anything that he does here, on THEIR turf. BUT:
1) we are NOT talking about massive numbers here anyway. Just enough to control the SP either way, and kill any run. PLUS, it doesn't hurt to shake the tree here and there and make a million here, a million there... It's actually fun.
2) it just takes a few million shares owned by the wife, kids, business partners, shady intermediaries/consultants, etc. to accomplish #1
3) according to investor friends whom I deeply respect and are far more competent than I in this area, by using the "right channels," just about ANYTHING can be done under the radar (#2) As to those know-it-alls who posted that the SEC is on top of all that, well what can I say, they must live in another world.
As is often the case in life, it boils down to a very elementary matter: TRUST.
We have been getting either total silence, as you rightfully point out, or mere lip service. Add to that not even a business plan... pathetic accounting... Operating cash running out at lightspeed... Not a recipe for a successful business, or for successful investments.
Sorry for being so brutally honest, but ERHE turns out to be a huge disappointment.
Be well.
"If everything was above board there shouldnt be anything to worry about. But for some reason I feel that some things that happened werent kosher. Remember the hoopla after the awards? I was surprised that it went away so quickly. Apparently it hasnt."
Ditto, I couldn't agree more. And if everything was above board, the SP wouldn't be at 5-10% of its worth either. It is now crystal-clear to me that SOME people in-the-know, starting INSIDE the company and possibly at the very top, are all-too-aware of whatever real hurdles there are (I know, I'm slow...) They have been part of the problem, not part of the solution.
Further dilution of the already-ridiculous 700+ million of ERHE shares? Perhaps. But NOT because Offor needs a few mils for block 5 or whatever, believe me (I hold this from a very good source) but just BECAUSE HE CAN. Just like he knows he can have the "staff" burn prodigious amounts of cash to "operate" the company, with no consequences whatsoever, etc., etc. They have been milking the cow, and milking the cow, and milking the cow...
They will walk ERHE down to the high twenties before PSCs, possibly lower, and after PSCs allow a run to maybe 40-60 cents, a ridiculous share price BUT a nice 50% or more gain for them AGAIN. Then they will sell into the run and the bleeding will start all again over until the next "sign of hope" for shareholders (actual oil drilling? Anotehr rumor of buyin or buyout? Whatever...)
Oilman57 was 100% correct, this stock will not go anywhere for a long time (Feel free to bookmark this post.)
Meanwhile, we loyal longs keep holding the bag. A heavy, smelly bag that reeks of manipulation or worse.
And before attack me for posting these thoughts, please take a minute to ask yourself HONESTLY this simple question (unless you have a nice big pile of money which you can afford NOT to care if it sits somewhere dead for YEARS or gets lost altogether):
Was ERHE a smart investment of my money?
JUST OPEN YOUR EYES.
We invest in stocks to make money, don't we? (Rhetorical question.)
OK, go ahead now, flame away... If by year end ERHE is at $5 bucks, where it should be (revised down from my own original $7-10 price projection), I will be happy to eat my words. But I don't think so.
Just my infinitesimally small fraction of the millions of dollars of dead money we collectively own.
ERHE, bleeding like a stuck hog.
It's gonna get much worse before it gets better.
Watch.
OT - A very sensible and accurate remark LC. This kind of labeling still goes on (big time) and has led to some of the most shameful events in the history of our country and many others.
There used to be a name for this: propaganda.
Nowadays it's called "spin" and more often than not... THE NEWS.
Beautiful!
Not as wild - or rather wildly manipulated - as ERHE, but hey... I'd rather watch them anyway.
Homeport is about as incompetent as you are honest, girlfriend.
Come on now, you have other ways of worming your way back into STP waters...
"drug down with it"? GETTING DRUNK OR HIGH AND REALLY DESPERATE NOW CON-POOCH?
Uh, oh... Pathetic.
COMPRENDO? We sure do... LOL.
Same here Manti. XOM has a downright obscene amount of cash in the bank. They could well buy these two plus DVN.
I frankly doubt this would be a good thing for ERHE though.
NNPC - This isn't good.
Many of you know how large a role the NNPC plays in the Nigerian oil industry today. Here is a copy of some spam which I and several friends have received. There have been others before but the effort of these scammmers seems to intensify. Now is a time when NNPC especially needs to show legitimacy. Those of you who have direct contact with NNPC might want to point them to this post...
NIGERIAN NATIONALPETROLEUM (R.C.10610/NNPC/FGN)
CORPORATION {NNPC},NIGERIA
CONTRACTNUMBER{NNPD/FGN/0276CO}
1998-2000.
Dear Friend,
It is with trust and confidence that I write this urgent business assistance to you. I am a senior accountant with the Nigerian national petroleum corporation (NNPC) .I have been assigned by two of mycolleagues to seek for a trust worthy foreign partner who will assist us inthe transfer of the sum of U.S$ 10,000,000.00(ten million us dollars) onlyinto a safe foreign account pending on our arrival in your country forsharing and utilization of the fund with the owner of the account. On the20th of January 1998 our corporation, the Nigerian national petroleumcorporation (NNPC), awarded a contract of U.S$150,000,000,00 (one hundredand fifty million united states dollars) only, to a foreign firm for thesupply of some equipment at the Kaduna refinery.The actual contract valuewas U.S$140,000,000,00 (one hundred and fourty million united statesdollars),only. But I and my
colleagues being members of the contractawarding committee over-invoiced the contract to the tune ofU.S$150,000,000.00 (one hundred and fifty million united states dollars)only, with the intention of sharing the remaining balance US$10,000,000.00(ten million united states dollars) only among ourselves.
The contracthas been successfully executed and the actual contractors had been paidtheir US$140,000,000.00 (one hundred and fourty million united statesdollars) only, in full leaving a balance of U.S$10,000,000.00 which we nowwant to transfer out of the country in our favour for
disbursement amongourselves. Meanwhile I and my two colleagues have agreed that if you/yourcompany can act as the beneficiary of this fund U.S$10,000,000.00), you willretain 20% of the total fund, for the assistance rendered, while we wouldretain 70% of the total and the balance of 10% of the total fund will be setaside for the off-setting of all expenses that might be incurred by bothparties during the fund transfer process. We are requesting you toco-operate with us and provide a convenient account number in a designatedbank where this fund can be safely transferred, we intend to come over thereon the completion of the fund transfer to secure our own share of the fund.
Please, note that we have been careful and have worked out all themodalities for a smooth transferof this fund to your chosen designatedaccount before contacting you .We wouldtherefore not want you to expose thisproposal to any body for the purpose of security and its confidentialnature.
Please be rest assured that this transaction is 100%risk-free. If this proposal is acceptable by you, please contact me throughmy personal e-mail address for further information on this transaction. Notethat the particular nature of your company’s business is irrelevant tothistransaction.
Please your favorable reply is urgently needed withyour private phone and fax number for heart to heart communication and your residential address for easy and effective communications.Thisinformation is highly confidential and urgent.
Thanking you inanticipation of your cooperation.
Yours'
Dr.Liman Gote
Note:Contact me through this Email Address:liman_gote1@yahoo.com
Direccion.com
________________________________________________
Thismail was sent by Direccion.com 2.0
Considering the hundreds, if not thousands of posts you have made on various boards that
1) refer to problems with/in the SEC filings of ERHE - some of which are actually correct, I'll give you that much
and
2) show a truly extraordinary amount of grudge against ERHE,
one would think that YOU would be the FIRST to "call the SEC" to protect your 30+ million shares investment, wouldn't one?
Yet, as BB pertinently observed, "you take no action to report any of it. Odd..."
But wait, the SEC knows you all too well Mr. Con-Poodle LOL.
Not so odd after all.
bb, WHO do you think would/will remove this "controlling factor"?
Also, WHY would he/they?!
Clearly, for him/them this absurdly low SP has NOT been a problem (perhaps just the opposite) whereas for those of us who have been sitting on piles of dead money for years - and therefore made a very poor investing decision with ERHE (mea culpa!) - it has been a problem. A bigger, and bigger, and bigger problem. And as ztock and mugwump just mentioned in other posts, we could get very old waiting for things to really change.
Ah yes, but the SP will magically jump to where it belongs when PSCs are signed, or when the drill bit is sunk in block 1, or wait a MERE FIVE YEARS (!!!!) and things will be fantastic, etc. Honestly, based on what we have SEEN, and based on the gigantic-size float, can we reasonably expect that the "controlling factor" will let it?
I do not expect to get real answers - although I am 99% sure that some who post or lurk here do have these answers - but these are very fundamental questions about our investment in this stock.
"just pointing out the different market reaction to eng acquiring one block in the gulf of guinea and erhe acquiring 6 blocks- seems kinda illogical if you bother to look at it"
Excellent post.
"Illogical" has to be one of the understatements of the year. It does raise all kinds of questions and red flags for the reasonably-minded investor. It certainly does for me.
No matter how one tries to rationalize, or as some do, spin things, we are at 40 cents when we should be at 5-10 X more. A very harsh reality indeed.
Singin' it right there with you!
Excellent post Bklynboy56.
Linda, once I was asked to help get your posting "privileges" (LOL) back across IHUB, you became a bit of a "connection" even though I don't know you as a person, and I started reading your posts here (on and off, I admit.) So please don't take this the wrong way... I'm just trying to help.
Given that you seem to get the exact OPPOSITE results to what you want with your trading, have you considered becoming a self-contrarian and investing accordingly (wanna sell this one now? DON'T. Wanna buy that one later? Buy it NOW...)? Try it for say, September-October and see how it goes!
Just a thought.
Be well.
Still own a very small amount of free shares of that PLKC dog LOL. Wish I had those swapped with, ahem, ya know, that OTHER dog (the oily and smelly one.)
Be well.
My post will be deleted if I give an honest answer to your last paragraph, so why bother? Too bad, it's really a key question.
Thanks for the reply anyway BB. I now see what your angle with nwtf is. I appreciate being able to hear all sides too, and THEN I make up my own mind about ERHE or any other stock.
kuxe0 you make a good point about XOM. They have many billions of $ earmarked for acquisitions, and you can be sure that PXD is in their crosshairs, near or at the very top of the list (shouldn't be too hard for a George Soros to find out.)
I believe that's the REAL reason why they pulled out of round 2 in the JDZ. It's smart, by gobbling up a PXD which has gained some or all control in ERHE (and quite possibly gobbling up NBL too) they will both regain huge acreage/potential reserves in the last elephant field on the planet AND have much faster drilling/extraction schedules in place thanks to the high capabilites of these smaller, nimbler, more aggressive companies.
Pete I would definitely welcome his presence in PXD / ERHE - even if he was behind the recent shenanigans, which I don't believe as it's way below his league, although it could have been some of associates/friends/relatives, as could have been in Offor's case - if for no other reason that the name of ANY billionaire associated to a stock creates an enormous amount of hype and free publicity for that stock. I don't see how that could hurt us.
BB there's nothing wrong about being invested in a stock AND asking hard questions about said stock. In fact, one of my mentors says not doing so is a very good way to lose money... to those who do.
I do agree that if we saw the list of shareholders and the amount of shares they hold we'd be in for a surprise. I'd actually say several BIG surprises.
No offense taken LOL. Ditto with fingers here (sometimes pretty bad!)
Your brains are working just fine. Some truths are hard to take, that's all.