Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
A nice rally , and the QLD breaking 26.25, it could see 28.31 today.
I wouldn't buy here, no way! But just posted it in case someone is still holding and thinking of selling today.
I just entered a sell, pre-market, @ 26.08 for QLD.
Gov't report at 8:30 a.m. has me spooked.
Hope it fills.
EDIT: GDP revision was on target: -0.5%. So far market likes it.
Existing home sales at 10:00 a.m. and I believe Paulson is speaking at 10 a.m. also.
O.K., I surprised how much up-side is left in the daily charts.
The NASDAQ has more room up that I would have thought at the close today. It COULD go to 1538. That's the next target.
The SP500 has even more room to the up-side on the daily chart. Next target I have is 873.70
The DJIA looks like the SP500. Same amount of up-side potential. Next target: 8811.61
I think we're in for more fireworks Tuesday, either, or both,(!) ways. ;~)
EDIT: DON'T touch the SKF yet. I think it can take another hit of 22-25% (130-135) before it's ready to turn up again.
I put a sell in at 25.25 for QLD. A profit's a profit. Though, it'll probably go higher tomorrow. But, why be greedy?
I'll post later tonight my thoughts on the markets.
Edit: Didn't go through. :~( Hope we gap up tomorrow. :~)
Personaly, the way I trade, I'd wait on EEV because it has quite of bit of room to the downside before it's oversold on a WEEKLY basis. Meaning, sometime this week, it'll tade lower than where it's at now.
Could it pop tomorrow? Sure, since it's in an area of oversoldness on the daily chart. Of course it can still go lower before turning up.
Those 9 pm numbers are really important to me. I'll be able to tell more after I see those figures.
Nice trade. Wahz has a good one going, too, with long crude.
I'll take a look at EEV, but if we close at the high of the day, or close to it, you may want to wait til tomorrow morning.
Chances are, we open up tomorrow before turning around. Or, one could always buy half today and half tomorrow.
GOOG's holding back the NASDAQ. On a day the NASDAQ is up 4.75%, GOOG is down 3%.
If GOOG turns and goes green today, look out above!
Something to keep in mind: Around 2-2:15 (market time) each trading day, is when the brokerage make forced margin call trades.
In other words, if you get a margin call and take no action, the brokerages make it for you during that time.
And, my thinking here is, the one's getting the margin calls this time around are the shorts.
I'm thinking big rally last two hows, imo, fwiw.
I'm still long. Last time I sold in the middle of the day, I left a lot on the table.
Just remember A profit is beeter than NO profit.
You've got a nice trade going. though. :~)
It's too soon to tell, but it looks like the SKF is going to 184.70.
It looks oversold now, but I really need to wait til 9 pm to see the final numbers. If it breaks 184.70, then the next stop would be 152(!).
That link didn't work. Can you try again? Thanks.
I'm listening to a fund manager named Donald Coxe. He syas the markets won't turn until the BKX bottoms and he don't know where that bottom is.
HEY DON ! That bottom will be at 12.11 or under. Until then don't even think of a bottom.
http://events.onlinebroadcasting.com/bmo_fastcast/112108/frameset.php
okey dokey!
This is shaping up to be another +100 point day. That would coincide with the 38.2% retracement level from the recent high to the current low.
Of course this is for the NASDAQ.
I believe this will be a good place to go short, also. NASDAQ 1478-80 area is what I'm looking for.
Cort,
Look's like the SKF and EEV are setting up for a good entry point.
Watching... watching... watching... :~)
BTW, SKF was up 60.5% this week. Iremember when 60.5% wouldhave been unbelievable returns for a whole year!
No. I only watched the last 2 hours of trading today. I'm holding QLD. I'm hoping for more 'green' on Monday.
I'll be watching SKF. It pulled back all most 60(!)points from the intra-day high.
I'd like to see the markets rally for a couple more days. It's been a long time since we've had 3 green days in a row. Or, at least it seems that way.
The SKF is 2x the inverse of the XLF. So, if the XLF goes down 50% from here (currently 9) then that would mean 100% gain for the SKF.
So, I think close to $600 on the SKF.
SKF shot right through 301. Going much higher, imo, since I believe the XLF is going to 3-4.
Yes, and a spike down to as low as 15. Then stabilize between 25-40 for years.
Of course, an Israeli strike will messs up the chart and cause a major spike up.
How high? Maybe to my highside target of 157...? Thast was my original high target. It fell short and 'only' hit 154.
This market is like know ever in history. Technicals don't seem to work.
The only thing I can think of is, instead of wave 3 being 1.618 x wave 1, it is, instead, 2.618 x wave 1.
That is very rare. So, since this is like no market ever, maybe that's the case.
If so, I see:
DJIA- 6427 to complete wave 3 down
SP500- 607 to complete wave 3 down
Nasdaq- 671 (wow!) to complete wave 3 down
This is the only scenario I can figure might happen, since all of my other targets have been decimated.
Do you this Isael makes a strike against Iran? I don't want to get caught short crude when that happens. Don't want to be an "investor".
Anyhow, from what they are saying today on CNBC, oil traders are saying if crude closes at or below $49.90, then $40's in the bag.
Why I sold my DTO @ 103.18:
Two reasons:
1. It was not trading 2x inverse of the price of crude, like it was intented to. That happens sometimes and it really pisses me off.
2. I really afraid of Israel making a strike on Iran. Now, there's reports of Iran having enough materials to produce 1 atom bomb. They still need to re-fine it more, though, they do have what they need.
If this is true, then Israel has to make a strike soon.
When they do, crude is going to spike big time, imo.
Maybe I'll go long.....
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1226404789701&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Anyhow, a profit's a profit... as the saying goes.
QLD, in at 21.79 today and 22.90 from late yesterday.
recently, I've heard on tv analyist talking of a "triple" bottom.
I told my wife and kids, "there's no such thing as a triple bottom. It'll get pierced to the downside".
Of course, they just looked at me with blank stares, lol!
Geez, don't hate me and take it for what it's worth, but I get THE bottom on the DJIA as 2013.
And that's just about when it will occur: 2013 :~)
And yes, these figures are pricing in a depression. Reember, there will be rallies.
Plus, the DOW should rally to around 9800-10000 before heading to the bottom.
Please: Don't shoot the messenger.
Alright, this is what I get:
In a normal market, and going by todays's close being the bottom of the 3wave down, the NASDAQ should see a rally to at least 1694 and possilbly to as high as 1823.
Then, a 5th wave down would end around 998 or as high as 1258, depending on how high the w4 goes (1694 or 1823, or even higher). This would be in a "normal market".
This is no normal market. I would see the 5th wave down being longer than normal and ending somewhere between 681-822.
Now, something else to keep in mind: A true crash takes away 90% or more of all the gains of a bullmarket. So, 500-600 is a reasonable bottom and where a new bullmarket would start.
All jmho,
df
Edit: I should add: If we don't get that bounce to 1694 or whatever, then I'm totally in the dark and don't have a clue. But, 500-600 would be the bottom.
GemX, I don't know if you know who he is, but he was calling for the low to be between 1400-1365.
http://wavegenius.com/index.html
So, it's possible we see 1365 before a reversal.
I may buy more QLD in the morning if the market gaps down.
what time did he say that?
And, the NASDAQ may go to 1365 before reversing. I did, though, take 1/2 a long position in QLD near the close @ 22.90
Sold! :~)
Now, let's hope we can rally from this level.
I know some are calling for 1365 as the low. I'm looking for a 4th wave up now. I'll post later what I expect will happen.
new high was made on the SKF today. Going to 301, at least. And the XLF is heading toward the 3-4 range, imo.
Sell order entered for QID @ 88.29
I know. Sad. :~(
I would not be surprised one bit to see the NASDAQ rally back to 1470.86 today. They left an open gap.
I hope not, though. Again, we're close to 1407. Let's just go get it! :~)
QID @ 81.20 :~)
I believe that opening was a gift.... time will tell.
No doubt 1407 gets hit. Just got back and saw the markets.
Question is, do we bounce for a few weeks, or go even lower.
I'd like to see a bounce for a few weeks.
In DTO @ 93.77. No rhymn or reason. Just figure crude's going to $40/bl, so this is as good anentry as any.
Will look to sell at fifty because there may be a little bounce, but I'll make that decision when it gets there.
But will it matter for more than 15 minutes?
That is a GREAT 'photo'. Excelleant cut and paste job. Love how the closed the bull's eye!
Now I'll read the article, lol!
I think the indexes are ready for a big 'pop' this week. MAybe Tuesday.... ?
They are getting pretty oversold on the weekly. And monthly WAY oversold, especially if they close the month at these levels or lower. Then, we could see a HUGE move to the up-side in December.
Don't think it would last to long though.
OTOH, if we hit the targets ,this month, I layed out, then maybe we could run up for a month or two.
Those targets are:
NASDAQ: 1407
DJIA: around 6800
SP500: 605
The S&P and DJIA don't look likely. But then, in this market anything could happen, lol!
NASDAQ 1407 is very likely this month, imo.