EMKR SA article.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3968737-emcore-cash-pile-mobilization-positive-near-term-catalyst

Sounds like some sort of partnerships in cargo screening. Good news for sure. I want to hear details.

I'm not gonna say anything anymore (at least until something new comes up) but before I go, few things....

1. Although I agree that we started going in circles, I'm not "bickering". I'm presenting a different opinion and an educated guess. If constant cheer-leading makes you all warm and fuzzy, you can simply ignore me.

2. I could take it to PMs (and I have recently with one poster). But everyone who is responding to me is too cheap to even get a membership here so PMs are not possible. And that person used to copy/paste my PMs to main board LOL.

Anyway, have fun.

LOL, getting personal again?
I don't even know what CSTI is and I certainly don't need extra pennies. If you only knew LOL

OK, I'll stop then. It's not like I'm the only one arguing here but I'll just stop since we are going in circles.

Startup I'm at is only 2 years old and privately held. And I'm not gonna disclose it because if I do, it's like putting few puzzle pieces together to find out my identity and I have no interested in this.

You are absolutely correct on contracts. Agreed 100%.

But I have to remind once again that Smith has had ETD for a long time and have a pretty good install base already. ETDs that are being purchased right now are vast majority contact/"swabbable" so Smith didn't gain much from Morpho ETD products. Hence, this wasn't the reason for the acquisition.

1. Yes, they acquired Morpho for EDS so why are so many people here referencing this as a "sign" that Implant will be next? Where's the connection? Some called it a "desperation move". Huh? If Smith was so desperate to get ETD they'd go with the best. Same people claim that Morpho ETD is just LOL... so Smith was so desperate that they bought junk. Yep, very logical.

2. Service contracts only add value because it's a steady (market independent) revenue flow. And you are right again, it's not the case with Implant.

3. Yes, they certainly have not been growing recently. And that's the thing that Implant has going for it. But here's the thing.... This market has a max $ amount already calculated and available for everyone to see until at least fiscal year 2020 so the cards are open on the table. If you go by TSA, it's about $12mil per year. Of course there are other agencies but show me documented proof that it's $800mil (or 60% of $800mil) for the next 3 years (actually less now because this claim wasn't made today). If there was proof, IMSC wouldn't be sitting at .50

I have no clue? I go by facts, not pie-in-the-sky dreamed up valuations. THAT is the most dangerous personality. You don't invest in ANYTHING by dreaming up best case scenario.

What growth? It was sold for x2 sales. What comparisons are you talking about?
And you are correct, I'm a former employee of an EDS company but I left only because I wanted to join a new startup with exciting new technologies with wide open market.

EDS business is just fine... They get enough orders to stay in business and fat service contracts that have become as big of a deal as product sales. It's just not something I wanted to come to work to every day. An engineer would understand.

Safran didn't want to build out "there" tech. They got tired of being in this segment. And there's nothing else to "build out"... This segment got saturated and no low hanging fruit anymore.

No, Smith move was all about EDS and contracts. Just today I spoke with a cofounder of one of the EDS companies specifically about this topic. And then spoke to another person who spent the last 23 years working in this industry. Both confirmed my option - it was all about EDS and service contracts. I really don't know why you are trying to convince me otherwise. I don't have a single reason to doubt what they say.
If Smith wanted ETD so badly they'd buy Implant. It's the best, right?

Last time I'm gonna respond to that $800m or 60% of that $800m... I'll believe it when I see proof and that's one of reasons I still follow this stock. So far it's just a good looking $ number and that's it.

I read what you write, I just don't care about your opinion much.

Market wise this number is an estimated "guideline" and I don't really question it.
What I don't believe is that Implant will get it all. I also don't believe this number is what will end up being spent. Clearly I'm not the only one.

And regarding Smith... Please, I'm literally begging you.... Stop hinting/suggesting that Smith bought Morpho because they wanted ETD. Smith has had ETD for a long time. What they wanted is CT EDS and service contracts

I simply don't believe this $800mil number so let's just agree to disagree. Time will tell

Oh yea.. Don't forget the debt

Interested in quick trades (the moves are golden for that).
Also like to have a discussion.... An educated discussion. And then with time see who was right. This is how you build your experience trading on fundamentals.

Lastly, I already explained that I love and live this industry and simply curious what will happen to Implant

Smith paid x2. I don't understand your obsession with the dollar amount.
Smith also made this purchase to get EDS and contracts (makes sense to consolidate inline and CT X-ray scanners contracts). Smith already had ETD.

Funny how you elected to ignore official TSA budget breakdown. But hey, Implant knows better, right?

Replaces every few years? No, they get SW update, not replaced. You can't possibly think that Implant will come out with new product every few years. It's not even possible if they wanted to (financially and process wise).

$1B? LOL
Let's look at it this way... IDIQ is a $ number simply set aside. Gov. doesn't have to spend it all... that's why it's called IDIQ. So using IDIQ number to calculate a possible buyout price is not wise. No buyer would assume that they'll get it all. It's simply not how you spend millions of $ (by using best case scenarios).

A more reliable number can be derived from here Final_5_Year_Technology_Investment_Plan.pdf

You can clearly see how much money TSA allocated all the way into fiscal year 2020. Do the math yourself. 360 units is about $12mil. Profit? Let's say $7mil. This is the number given by TSA.

Let's say they also sell to CATSA and EU and let's add another $20mil profit. Heck, add more if you want.

Now, why in the world would someone buy IMSC for.... I don't know.... $400 million? Just to MAYBE break even 14 years from now? This business is very cyclical so once those systems are in place and market is saturated, there's gonna be drought just like there was drought with EDS purchases (still kinda is). And then what? So MAYBE they break even and then no sales for a period of time?

So what's left? Some sort of "new segment" product with "Barrier To Entry" that doesn't exist yet. This certainly could add value but it's an even riskier bet because the buyer will now have to spend $ to finish development, productize it, certify it, etc... You all know how much Implant spent on this.

This is why I stick to my x2 sales.

Yea but you said 2 days ago it'll go up today. So did you buy 2 days ago?

OK, so by your logic you have to be loading up every day.... Because it's gonna go up every day... According to you.

Please do as you say and I'll book mark the Nth post to came back later and discuss the disastrous decision.

If I was a mod here, I'd make a sticky to "hall of fame" that contains links to comments as yours and then a corresponding link showing what actually happened.

And today you will once again say "like tomorrow"?

DRRX, offering @$1.25

How can no one know about it if reps have been on top TV channels, etc. Serious investors don't turn to wahoo message board for any advice.
I've been trading since 2003 or so and have never seen a company go BK because of some shorts. It's the other way aground... Shorts jump on companies that are going BK (chiscams come to mind).
In IMSC short int. it always about the same (200k-400k).. Nothing major
If it's a solid company (pink or not), shorts will hit a wall once the price is low enough where the stock is too cheap to pass. And if it's a solid company, trust me... There are thousands of professional traders that are looking for such companies and then promote the heck out of them via articles and subscribtions

Protest? Absolutely, that's clearly meant to hurt IMSC.
Stock price is driven by the market, not shorts. Sure, shorts can hold the price for a day, maybe a week, but that's it. If you believe otherwise, fine. I believe in free market. If there was buying pressure shorts simply can't keep on shorting.
Lastly, I'd run from a stock that needs a wahoo message board to get noticed (or any message board for that matter). If message board clientele is the core then....

I personally don't believe in any conspiracy theories about competitors shorting this stock, etc. I believe in free market where price is determined by supply and demand. I also don't see what competitors can gain by hiring some firm to short IMSC. What will .50 gain them? If there's a buyout it'll be driven not by the current price but by the fundamentals.

Last time at TSL was about 1.5 years ago just before I moved on to a start-up company but I still keep in touch with many people in EDS industry. Hopefully I'll be going back to TSL sometime this year as I'm still in the industry to same extent.

Regarding CC... They've said everything they can say. If I missed something it's on me

DRRX R&R initiated coverage - target 4bux. Nice!

Why would I be agonizing? I trade responsibly and try not to be emotional. My feelings haven't changed Scott IMSC so nothing to agonize about

Future? What an amazing strategy!
Buying a stock to hold until "future" happens.
Care to set the timeline/milestone/buyout PE?

I don't know what graphic you are referring to. TSA may throw all kinds of ideas at vendors to see what's feasible and ETD in a tunnel is not.. It's just not and I explained why.
Your scenario where ETD is some "Level-2" inspection where an EDS alarm is diverted somewhere to the side doesn't make much sense. Why? Because TSA will _never_ allow ETD to automatically clear an EDS alarm. And in this case, what's the point? If the tunnel is always contaminated then the bags going through it will always be contaminated too. This = huge FA rate. And FA rate isn't even the biggest issue. TSA would never allow this because EDS is much more accurate and can find threats that ETD cannot.
Have you ever wondered why those "puffer" portals are gone from airports? Because they were always contaminated and didn't work for that reason.

Lastly, I'm NOT being negative on this company all of a sudden. I'm simply stating facts and some opinions based on facts. I have nothing to lose or gain so my mind is clear on this without any emotions. I also trade other stocks actively (again, I'm not "married" to IMSC)
When I had a position, I thought they'd start selling and make great $$. It didn't pan out so I bailed a while ago

My guess x2, yes. The price depends on revenues and debt are the moment if sale.

So you think just because it took Implant forever to certify it's the same for everyone else? No.
And just because you are ahead today doesn't automatically = you will always be ahead

I sold my position a while ago but it doesn't mean I'm not interested in this company.
So I'm just observing at the moment.

Morpho is not young so I don't know the historic growth rate.
Reveal went from something like $10 million to $110 million (time of sale) in about 5 years. Heck, the company was like 7 years old when it was sold and almost no debt.

I explained why it's not possible to integrate non contact ETD inside EDS. There's no way to "target" a bag when multiple bags are in the tunnel at the same time moving at fast rate (500-1500bph) and the tunnel is ALWAYS contaminated.
TSA doesn't have ETD in EDS and I simply know that.
There's also no certification process for this and certification process the three SAME for all vendors.

Who's said EDS is declining? $1b allocated (most for EDS) states otherwise.

You can rest assured Reveal and Morpho were/are working on new tech or products. Case in point, CT-120 was just in the design phase when Reveal was bought. Morpho working on mass spec.. Just few examples (there are other products). So this is common across all companies.

You can trust me on that one... EDS doesn't need ETD. I'll just leave it at that. I know this industry and many people inside out. What differentiates them is false alarm rates vs. detection rates. EDS have such throughout rate (with multiple bags in tunnel at the same time) that it's impossible to integrate ETD even if the environment allowed it (tunnels are filled with filthy dust and pretty much everything possible that falls out of bags).
And EVEN if all those were possible, TSA would NEVER clear an EDS alarmed bag via ETD decision. EDS is simply so much better that when it alarms, the bag must be opened and inspected or at least looked at by a person via images on the screen

And no, I don't want you to continue. You keep listing things you either don't know or things that are applicable to any company (not just airport security space). Every company has some sort of product pipeline and IP.

Sure they are relevant.
1. Same industry where TSA, etc. budget is pretty much shared at top level.
2. Very limited "players" list so bidding result should be very consistent.

Now, here's what Reveal and Morpho had going for them:
- Huge fleet, i.e. lucrative service contracts (EDS service contracts are very big $ wise) that just keep on giving regardless of sales business so this takes some "risk off" for the buyer.
- Diversity, again takes risk off for the buyer. Small sized EDS not selling because of, for example, market saturation? We have big bores too. Don't want EDS? We also have ETD and line X-ray scanners.
- Proven record, established sales channels/customers and sales.
- Not drowning in debt.

What does Implant going for it:
- Best ETD (but it's not like competition is just sitting there... Morpho also working on mass spec for example)
- POTENTIAL big sale via IDIQ

Can you add anything else?

I'm not pretending to know the valuation IF there's a buyout. I simply go by the closest recent examples, I.e. Reveal and what happened today. And in both cases it's x2 revenue. Anything else is total speculation and if you ask me, as good as a gambling bet.

Implant clearly has the best ETD tech. at the moment, I never said they don't

Edit: service contracts are actually VERY valuable in this industry so the bigger the fleet the more value to the company

You have no clue about EDS market.
TSA allocated something like $1B to upgrade their fleet. Most of the inline high speed EDS are from early 2000s or even late 1990s so they are way past their time. I know this because I used to work in this industry until just 1.5 years ago.
So there's huge growth ahead

Better tech?
Calm down there.
They have state of the art CT scanners which make the most $$$ in sales and service contracts. So they are also diversified.

Sale $710m
Revenue $320 if I'm not mistaken.
So about x2.2.

Same story with Reveal few years ago.

Do the math for Implant.

Um. OK. I thought we agreed on an experiment where you claimed you were gonna hold through summer buying every week because that's the way you trade this baby and you were gonna double your money. In any case you said you'd update us on your transactions. And now $3 later you say you sold for a little loss? Yep.

Anyway, I knew it was gonna end something along these lines so the experiment is over LOL